EPL Notebook - Week 4
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The Premier League was off last weekend due to World Cup qualifiers and locals in the United Kingdom watched England capture a 1-0 victory over Slovakia with a late goal.
After Matchday 3 concluded on Sunday Aug. 28, we found out that nobody will end the season with zero points. We also saw Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United stay unbeaten and remain level at the top with nine points.
The three heavyweights all won by two-plus goals and they’ve now combined for 22 goals on the season while only allowing a combined six between them.
The Citizens (3/2) remain the top choice to win the title at Sportsbook.ag with the Red Devils (5/2) and Blues (5/1) right behind them.
Overall, home teams went 4-2 with four draws in Week 3 and three of the ties ended 1-1. The ‘under’ went 6-4.
Game of the Week – Manchester City at Manchester United (Saturday, NBCSN, 7:30 a.m. ET)
Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola will square off in their first Manchester derby on Saturday as the Manchester clubs battle from Old Trafford. As mentioned above, both clubs enter this game with identical 3-0 records.
Despite the perfect marks, United is favored (+130) over City (+225) and the draw is +230 while the total is 2½ goals and shaded to the 'under' (-130).
Man City won’t have striker Sergio Aguero heading into their first test of the season after he was banned for throwing an elbow in the last match. The Argentine product has played well versus United, scoring seven career goals against them and four in the last five games at Old Trafford. Expected to fill the void up front for City are Iheanacho or Nolito.
United was tied in the EPL for allowing the least amount of goals last season (35) and they’ve only conceded one this season with goal keeper David de Gea on point. Meanwhile, City has exiled goalie Joe Hart to Torino and still hasn’t managed to post a clean sheet yet this season while the former keeper had 15 last season.
Historically, United have won 20 of the 38 league meetings (20-7-11) and is 2-1-0 the last three encounters. The two head coaches squared off nine times during their previous coaching stops in La Liga with Barcelona and Real Madrid and Pep went 5-2-2 vs. Jose in “El Clasico.”
Trends to Watch
West Bromwich Albion at Bournemouth: Low total (2) for this matchup and it’s understandable with both teams posting 2-1 ‘under’ starts to the season. West Brom and Bournemouth have both scored and allowed a pair of goals in three games this season.
Southampton at Arsenal: The home squad has gone 4-2-0 in the last six meetings between the pair. Southampton has been a strong ‘under’ (3-0) lean so far while Arsenal has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1.
Hull City at Burnley: The last seven encounters between the pair have seen the loser get shutout and six of the outcomes ended with 1-0 decisions. This is only one of two games with totals listed at 2 goals in Week 4.
Crystal Palace at Middlesbrough: These teams haven’t met in over three years and newly promoted Middlesbrough (+125) is favored at home. The Boro (1-2-0) haven’t dropped points this season but the competition hasn’t been tough and Palace enters this game with the worst offense (1 goal) in the EPL.
Tottenham at Stoke City: The visitor won both matchups in this series last season and the last four games have seen 3-plus goals scored in all of them. Stoke City (+350) has been installed as the largest home ‘dog in Week 4 and it’s not surprising since the club has been outscored 4-1 this season at bet365 Stadium.
Watford at West Ham United: The Hammers and Hornets split last season’s series with the home team winning both games. Tough to handicap this matchup considering Watford has faced top clubs in Arsenal (1-3) and Chelsea (1-2) on the road while United fell to Man City (1-3) and Chelsea (1-2) as a visitor. Both teams have scored at least one goal in each of their first three games.
Leicester City at Liverpool: The home team went 2-0 in the two league matchups last season and the ‘under’ cashed easily in both games (2-0, 1-0). It’s quite surprising to Leicester (+425) listed as such a heavy ‘dog, especially against a Liverpool team that has allowed six goals this season. However, the new Anfield will be open on Saturday and that might give the home squad a boost.
Chelsea at Swansea City (Sunday): The Blues have gone 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings against Swansea City. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 the last four. Chelsea listed as a road favorite against a Swansea team that has scored two goals in three league games, both coming in the 80-plus minutes.
Everton at Sunderland (Monday): The home team swept the season series last season as the two teams combined for an eye-opening 11 goals (3-0, 6-2) in the encounters.
Champions & Europa League
Six teams will represent the Premier League in the UEFA Champions and Europa league. Fatigue is always a factor with the extra games and listed below are the clubs double-dipping next week.
Tuesday, Sept. 13
Arsenal has been installed as a very heavy underdog (+370) in its opener at Paris Saint-Germain.
Manchester City (-200) is laying a decent price at home versus German club Borussia Monchengladbach.
Wednesday – Sept. 14
Tottenham is listed as a home favorite (-155) versus AS Monaco.
Leicester City (+160) is expected to be in for a test at Club Brugge (+185) in Belgium.
Thursday, Sept. 15
Manchester United travels to the Netherlands to face Feyenoord as a road favorite (-125).
Southampton (-200) hosts Sparta Prague as a home favorite.