EPL Notebook - Week 5
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Week 4 Recap
Solid week on the pitch as bettors saw a combined 34 goals scored and that offensive production helped the ‘over’ go 8-2. Road teams posted a 5-3 record with two draws and the outcome that made the most noise came out of Manchester as the Citizens captured a 2-1 win over the Red Devils as live underdogs (+225).
Through four weeks, City is the only team to win all four games and they’ve outscored opponents 11-4 during this stretch. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.ag have lowered the future odds to 11/10 on Manchester City to capture this year’s Premier League title.
Last year’s champions, Leicester City, have been knocked down to an 80/1 choice. Including last week’s 4-1 setback at Liverpoool, the Foxes already have two losses this season compared to a total of three during last year’s title run.
Champions & Europa Recaps
Leicester City and Manchester City both looked very impressive in 3-0 and 4-0 victories respectively in their Champions League opener earlier this week, plus Arsenal earned a very solid 1-1 draw at Paris Saint-Germain. Meanwhile, Tottenham suffered a 2-1 defeat versus AS Monaco from a very supportive crowd at Wembley Stadium.
Manchester United was humbled in its Europa League opener with a 1-0 loss to Dutch club Feyenoord while Southampton captured a 2-0 victory over Sparta Prague at home on Thursday.
Matchday 5
The English Premier League has games scheduled from Friday to Sunday this weekend and there are some notable streaks to watch.
Friday, Sept. 16
Liverpool at Chelsea: Strong opening matchup from Stamford Bridge on tap and an argument can be made for Liverpool (+215) as a road underdog. The Reds have earned seven points against quality opponents (Arsenal, Tottenham, Leicester) while the Blues’ unbeaten mark (3-1-0) has been helped versus weaker foes. Liverpool has earned four points in its last two trips (3-1, 1-1) to London. Total bettors should note that Chelsea is 4-0 to the ‘over’ this season and this week’s total (2½, Over -135) is leaning high.
Saturday, Sept. 17
Arsenal at Hull City: Newly promoted Hull (2-1-1) have been very formidable this season (2-1-1) and its success is directly attributed to its defense (3 goals allowed). Big test this weekend against an Arsenal offense that has netted eight goals in four games, plus they’ve posted 4-0 and 3-1 victories in their last two trips to KCOM Stadium.
Burnley at Leicester City: The Foxes got off the snide Wednesday in the Champions League but bettors could be hesitant to lay a heavy price (-200) since they’re league play (1-2-1) has been suspect. The offense has been held to one goal or less in three contests and the defense has surrendered seven. Burnely’s offense (3 goals) lacks any threat and that’s not surprising when you recall they only scored 28 goals during their 2014-15 EPL campaign.
Bournemouth at Manchester City: The Citizens have been installed as the largest favorites (-400) of the weekend and the total (3) is the highest on the board as well. Those numbers shouldn’t shock you since City beat the Cherries 5-1 and 4-0 last season.
West Ham United at West Bromwich Albion: Tightest game of the week according to the oddsmakers and not a lot of goals are expected (O/U - 2). West Brom is sitting in the middle of the table despite only scoring two goals in four games. The Hammers have posted a goal in every game but allowing nine has hurt and starting the season with road trips to Man City and Chelsea wasn’t easy. Five of the last 10 encounters between this pair have ended in a draw.
Middlesbrough at Everton: The Toffees (-150) will look to win their fourth straight game when they host the Boro as home favorites from Goodison Park. Everton has only allowed two goals this season and this week’s total is shaded to the ‘under’ (-125). These teams met in League Cup action in January of 2015 and Everton earned a 2-0 road win.
Sunday, Sept. 18
Manchester United at Watford: After winning four straight games under new manager Jose Mourinho, Manchester United has dropped two straight in all competitions. United has gone 2-0 on the road this season while Watford is winless (0-2) at home. The Red Devils swept the season series against the Hornets last season, winning 1-0 and 2-1.
Stoke City at Crystal Palace: It’s rare to see Crystal Palace listed as healthy favorite (-105) but Stoke City (0-1-3) has been helpless this season. The Potters have been outscored 10-2 and haven’t dropped four straight in league play since 2012. The Eagles have gone 5-1-0 in the last six meetings between the pair.
Swansea City at Southampton: The Saints have won five of the last six games in this series, which includes 1-0 and 3-1 victories last season. Both clubs have allowed six goals apiece in four games and dating back to last season, Southampton hasn’t posted a clean sheet in 16 straight games.
Sunderland at Tottenham: The Spurs have completely owned this series, going 8-2-0 in the last 10 meetings. Tottenham has scored 11 goals in the last three games at White Hart Lane. Tough total (2½) to handicap with Sunderland allowing eight goals but the Spurs are tied for the best defensive numbers (2 goals) thus far.