EPL Notebook - Week 6
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Liverpool (+250) opened up Week 5 with an impressive 2-1 victory over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. The Reds have now earned 10 points against quality opponents and the lone loss came to a much weaker foe in Burnley.
Despite Chelsea losing, home teams stepped up last weekend and produced an 8-2 record with no draws. For the second straight weekend, total bettors watched the ‘over’ produce an 8-2 record behind a combined 36 goals posted on the scoreboard.
Future Update
Manchester City (8/13) remains the top betting choice to win the Premier League at Sportsbook.ag and the odds continue to get shorter. Liverpool (5/1) jumped Chelsea (15/2) after last week’s win while Arsenal (10/1) and Manchester United (10/1) round out the top 10.
Everton, who is also unbeaten at 4-1-0, is starting to receive attention at the betting counter as well. Prior to Week 1, the Toffees had 80/1 odds to win this year’s title and those odds have been trimmed to 50/1 after five weeks.
Game to Watch – Chelsea at Arsenal
A pair of 3-1-1 clubs will square off at Emirates Stadium this Saturday and the loser could be in trouble and possibly six points behind the leader, Manchester City.
Arsenal (+135) is listed as the short favorite over Chelsea (+200) and playing a primetime home game should give them a boost but many wonder if the club is just a bully.
The Gunners (0-1-1) have struggled versus quality foes in Liverpool and Leicester City, while racking up nine goals and three wins versus lesser competition. Meanwhile, Chelsea’s biggest test of the season came last week and it faltered in a 2-1 setback to Liverpool at home.
Chelsea has owned this series recently, unbeaten in the last nine EPL matches (6-3-0) against Arsenal and that includes a 2-3-0 road mark.
The Blues (5-0) and Gunners (4-1) have been strong ‘over’ leans this season and this week’s total (2½) is shaded to the ‘over’ (-130).
Largest Favorite
Bettors could be hesitant to back Liverpool (-450) on Saturday when it hosts Hull City from Anfield. As mentioned above, the Reds have been great versus top-tier opponents but the lone loss came to a club sitting just above the drop zone.
Newly promoted Hull City (+1250) started the season with back-to-back wins but have gone 0-2-1 in their last three and have been outscored 6-2 during this span.
Dating back to last January, Liverpool has gone 7-6-1 in 14 games from Anfield and they’ve only been held scoreless in one of those matches, which was the loss to Manchester United (1-0).
Historically, Liverpool has never lost a home game to Hull in 10 encounters (8-2-0).
Road Favorites
There are three teams laying ‘chalk’ as visitors this weekend and two of them make sense on paper, while the other matchup is based on the early play of the opponent.
Everton (+110) heads to Bournemouth on Saturday morning and I would be surprised to see many goals in this game. The Toffees have only surrendered three goals this season and the Cherries offense have managed to hit the net three times. However, the pair played three times last season in all competitions and the outcomes were 3-3, 2-0, 2-1 with Everton (2-1-0) owning the edge.
Will the Manchester City (-260) machine stay perfect this weekend at Swansea City. Unfortunately for the Swans, they’ve gone 1-2-9 in the last 12 versus the Citizens from Liberty Stadium. Coincidentally, the pair just played a League Cup game this past Wednesday at the same venue and City captured a 2-1 decision. Striker Sergio Aguero returns to City this weekend after missing the past three league games.
Crystal Palace (+160) isn’t a huge favorite for this matchup but it’s still laying wood against Sunderland (+185), who is off to a 0-1-4 start while being outscored 9-3. The Black Cats earned four points against Palace last season and have scored in each of the last four meetings.
Wrong Favorite?
Stoke City (+130) sits in last place of the Premier League with one point (0-1-4) and a minus-11 goal differential (3-14) is very disturbing. Despite those facts, the Potters are favored over West Bromwich Albion this Saturday at home. The Baggies have won three straight in this series and have gone 1-1 on the road this season, both ‘under’ winners. Stoke hasn’t won at Bet365 Stadium this season and it's been outscored 8-1 to heavyweights Man City and Tottenham.
Monday Matchup
Two league games have been played on Monday this season and three combined goals have been scored in each contest. Watford visits Burnley this week and the total is sitting at 2 ½ but shaded heavily to the ‘under’ (-145). The Clarets have seen the ‘under’ go 2-0 at home and their offense (3 goals) could have you leaning low again here but the Hornets have scored in all five of their games and they haven’t posted a clean sheet either.