English Premier League: Weekend Odds and Picks
By SHAWN YOUNG
Manchester United (-1 -125; 2.5 goals over -135) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (game on Saturday)
United beat Man City 1-0 away, and Spurs beat Chelsea 2-1 on Saturday.
Both teams scored huge wins on last weekend, and each team helped the other: MU is chasing Chelsea for the championship and the Spurs are trying to capture fourth place and the shot at the Champions League that goes with it.
Now, these trains swing toward each other. A draw suits absolutely nobody here so an over bet might be the shrewdest play.
Even if the first goal doesn’t come particularly early, whoever falls behind will have to start taking risks almost immediately: a 1-0 loss and a 6-0 loss are basically the same thing.
Which brings up another bet: if you can go against the draw at -350 or so, you’ve probably got the best of that number too. On the face of it, the number is reasonable: MU has four draws in 35 matches; Tottenham has seven in 34.
The edge comes in if it’s tied after 80 minutes: instead of protecting a point, both teams will chase the winning goal.
On the side, MU is a half-decent lean but I think the over is a far stronger bet.
Wes Brown returns for United after seven weeks out with a broken foot. Owen Hargreaves picked up a new calf strain and remains out.
Ledley King is a game-time decision for Spurs. Vedran Korluka (ankle) is still out. Niko Kranjcar has apparently delayed season-ending ankle surgery, but can’t play this week. Aaron Lennon will be available off the bench.
Pick: MU 3, Spurs 1.
Aston Villa (-1, evens; 2.5 goals, flat) vs. Birmingham (game on Sunday)
Villa beat Hull 2-0 away on Wednesday; Birmingham drew Hull 0-0 on Saturday.
I’m breaking a cardinal rule with this pick, but I can’t help myself. Midlands derby games are among England’s grouchiest, so it’s generally dog-or-nothing when these teams play.
But I’m betting Villa here.
Birmingham avoided relegation long ago and hasn’t won in seven matches. They lost six of seven on the road as well—the only win during that stretch was at Portsmouth.
This would be one last game to get up for, but Birmingham doesn’t have the quality to just turn on the A-game at will.
Villa has won two straight and want to keep European dreams on track for next season.
This one kicks off as early as possible to try to avoid crowd trouble. Yampy EPL. A Sunday morning kickoff just means the Brummies stay up drinking all Saturday night.
Birmingham strikers James McFadden (groin) and Cameron Jerome (back) are good to go after training in full on Thursday. Goals have been tough for Birmingham to come by: Jerome leads the club this season with 10.
No changes are expected from Villa’s midweek lineup. Stiliyan Petrov (groin), Richard Dunne (cut) and Stephen Warnock (ankle) all picked up minor injuries against Hull, but are good to go here.
Pick: Villa 3, Birmingham 0.
KEEP AN EYE ON: The EPL and FA have bent Portsmouth over by refusing to support Portsmouth’s bid to play in the Europa League next season. The EPL is run for the benefit of the big clubs, so Pompey has been thrown under the bus. Don’t expect much of an effort from Pompey in the remaining EPL fixtures, but they’ll kick lumps out of Chelsea in the final, win or lose.