English Premier League: Weekend Preview and Picks
By SHAWN YOUNG
The Boxing Day round on Saturday is followed by another round of matches on Monday. Lots of shops have odds up for both. Lots of shops don’t take their odds down for Monday while the Saturday games are being played.
If you’re watching a game Saturday, and see a star get injured, go bet against his team on Monday immediately. If you don’t like your bet, you’ll be able to scalp it later, guaranteed.
If you ever get a chance to go to a match in the UK, Dec. 26 is the day to go. It’s the biggest day of the year for crowds and for betting.
SATURDAY
Birmingham City vs. Chelsea (-1, +115)
(Brum drew 1-1 at Everton and Chelsea drew 1-1 at West Ham on Sunday.)
This is Chelsea’s last hurrah before their African stars leave for up to five weeks. They’ve got way too much for a Brum side that somehow hasn’t lost in two months.
Closer inspection of Brum’s record shows that they haven’t beaten anybody decent in that stretch and they’re going to be outclassed here. You might be able to get Chelsea -0.5 (or 3-way) around -170. That seems like stealing.
Roger Johnson and Liam Ridgewell are game time decisions for Brum. Everyone else is healthy, but if those defenders don’t play, it’s going to be ugly. Chelsea won’t have Anelka (muscle strain), Bosingwa (knee) and Essien (hamstring).
Pick: Birmingham City 0, Chelsea 2
SUNDAY
Hull vs. Manchester United (-1 -135)
(Hull lost 3-0 at Arsenal and United lost 3-0 at Fulham Saturday.)
Both these teams left London with their tail between their legs last week. United are more likely to shake off the rust. Hull were absolutely dominated, holding only 35 percent of the ball. Hull conceded eight corners, won zero and were out-shot 9-2.
I won’t claim United were unlucky to lose (when you lose 3-0, “unlucky” isn’t in the vocabulary) but in their match they had 59 percent of possession. They left their shooting boots at home (four on goal, 12 wide) and Sir Alex won’t let them do the same thing here against vastly inferior opposition.
Manchester United have game time decisions on the Da Silva brothers (both with sore shoulders), Brown (hamstring) and Vidic (thigh). Any defensive-minded reinforcements will be appreciated, but the scorers need to find the back of the net.
Pick: Hull 0, Manchester United 2
Keep an eye on…
…how Chelsea runs without their African players. With Anelka injured, Monday’s derby with Fulham will force Chelsea to play two forwards who have never started an EPL game.
The ball supply should be fine, but can these guys finish? The African Nations Cup is a garbage tournament with too many teams. It’s held too often and at the worst time of the year. At least it gives EPL bookies a chance to be confused.
And...
…how do Manchester City’s players react after the surprise sacking of Mark Hughes? Your guess is as good as mine, but I won’t be betting the team until I see how it goes.