English Premiership: Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
Let’s hit the road for value in England this week.
SATURDAY
ARSENAL (-2.5, +120) vs. BURNLEY
Arsenal beat Stoke 3-1 away and Burnley lost 2-1 at home to Pompey Saturday.
Burnley’s a bad side. This number is still too big. Arsenal has started slowly all season long and Burnley can hang on long enough to cover this massive number.
Arsenal, for its part, is looking ahead to Porto Tuesday. As the old song goes, “One-nil to the Arsenal” would probably suit the Gunners here. Arsenal has not beaten a team by three clear goals since downing Portsmouth 4-1 on December 30. They’ve played 12 matches since.
Alex Song is suspended for Arsenal. Andrei Arshavin (hamstring), Denilson (calf) and Abou Diaby (knee) could all see midfield duty. But manager Arsene Wenger’s top priority is to have them ready for Porto.
Burnley greybeard Graham Alexander returns from a calf injury. Steven Fletcher broke his hand playing for Scotland midweek and will wear a cast and play regardless. Chris McCann (knee) remains out.
Pick: Arsenal 2, Burnley 1
SUNDAY - FA CUP STYLE
READING vs. ASTON VILLA (-0.5, -120)
Reading beat Sheffield 5-0 Saturday. Villa lost the League Cup Final 2-1 to MU at Wembley Sunday.
Everton-Hull seems properly priced or I’m just clueless on it. Whichever, let’s do this instead.
Reading’s big win gives them breathing space above the relegation line for now. That said, Reading is not ready for this step up in class. Reading beat an out-of-form Liverpool team in extra time in a third round replay, but lightning won’t strike twice. In 34 Championship games, Reading only has 10 wins.
Villa will be disappointed to lose the League Cup final after leading briefly. The Villains will do better here. Villa has five wins in 12 EPL road games this season and has to be 60-65 percent to win at a Championship side with a losing record.
Quirky fact thrown in Villa manager Martin O’Neill’s face by the English press: In his three years at Villa, he’s winless in March - a spell of 12 matches. That gets fixed here.
Jobi McAnuff is suspended for Reading. Zurab Khizanishvili is ineligible (cup-tied to Blackburn). Shane Long returns from a four-match ban.
Villa’s Richard Dunne (leg) is fit despite skipping Ireland’s midweek game. Stiliyan Petrov and James Collins did not train Friday, but played internationals midweek and are good to go.
Pick: Reading 1, Villa 2