English Premiership: Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
SATURDAY
MANCHESTER UNITED (pick -115, 2.5 goals under -130) vs. CHELSEA
Manchester United lost 2-1 away to Bayern Munich Tuesday. Chelsea thumped Aston Villa 7-1 Saturday.
This game, broadcast in 3-D in clubs and pubs across the UK, will have more impact than any other match in deciding this year’s champions. Manchester leads Chelsea by one point with six games to go.
The early number moved 50 cents after Wayne Rooney hobbled off in the dying moments against Bayern. Rooney is out at least two weeks. Michael Owen is lost for the season. Dimitar Berbatov is the only true forward MU has left.
Chelsea has scored 12 goals in its last two matches and that’s what makes this bet tricky: I’m betting under. Both teams will start cautiously. If either side manages to score, that team will play for 1-0.
Given the Rooney situation, each side would think a loss would be fatal to title dreams. Expect a very tight game. Since the start of the 2006-07 season, these teams have met 11 times in all competitions. Eight games have seen two goals or less. If you throw out the two Charity Shield exhibitions, under is 7-2 in nine contests.
Long-term absentees Owen Hargreaves and John O’Shea are game-time decisions for MU.
Didier Drogba is fit for Chelsea. Michael Essien, Ashley Cole, Jose Bosingwa and Branislav Ivanovic all remain out.
Pick: MU 0, Chelsea 0
SUNDAY
EVERTON (-1, -125, 2.5 goals over -125) vs. WEST HAM UNITED
Everton drew Wolves 0-0 away and West Ham lost 1-0 at home to Stoke Saturday.
West Ham is teetering on the relegation line after six straight losses. Everton is trying to qualify for Europe. These teams are headed in different directions for sure and the trend continues here.
Everton last lost at home in the EPL on November 29. In the Toffees’ last three matches, they’ve held Bolton, Man City and Wolves scoreless. West Ham should not break through either.
West Ham made much of its news this week by accusing Fulham of sending out the scrubs in a Fulham loss to Hull last Saturday. The authorities are investigating. West Ham and Hull are level on 27 points for the final relegation spot, with West Ham winning the goal difference tiebreaker.
Everton has five wins and a draw from the clubs’ last six meetings in all competitions.
Everton will be without Dan Gosling (ACL) for nine months. Mikael Arteta misses this one with a groin injury, while Joseph Yobo and Victor Anichebe are probable.
Jack Collison (knee) Herita Ilunga (knee) and James Tomkins (ankle) are game-time decisions for the Hammers. Kieron Dyer (muscle strain) is a serious doubt and Guillermo Franco is out with an Achilles strain.
Pick: Everton 2, West Ham 0
KEEP AN EYE ON: The EPL is not playing a second round on “Easter Monday”, but the lower leagues are. Get injury info Saturday and use it as quickly as you can to bet Monday’s games. Also, look to bet bigger, deeper Championship-level clubs against weaker opposition Monday. Smaller teams won’t have the luxury of resting tired legs.