English Premiership: Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
Saturday sets up a watch-and-react bet with derbies in both the early and tea-time slots.
SATURDAY
MANCHESTER CITY vs. MANCHESTER UNITED (pick, -125) / TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR vs. CHELSEA (-0.5, flat)
There’s a whiff of desperation in the early kickoff. United trails Chelsea by four points at the top with four games left. City leads Spurs by a single point with five games left for each team in the race for the Champions’ League Qualifying spot that comes with fourth place.
I lean to the Citizens in the early game and if you need a bet, that’s likely the way to do it. But the real money is to be made later.
If City wins, take Spurs +0.5 in the late game.
If Man United wins, take Chelsea to win in the late game.
Sure, Spurs and Chelsea will both want to get a result, both teams are full of professionals and all that. But this play boils down to Chelsea’s killer instinct or lack thereof.
Chelsea shuffled past Bolton 1-0 midweek and finds itself in the Cup final after beating Villa last weekend. Teams can’t get up for every game - if United falters again Saturday, Chelsea could put in an indifferent performance here and rest a pile of players. If, on the other hand, United wins, Chelsea will show its full worth.
Spurs crashed out of the FA Cup last weekend because they were thinking about Arsenal midweek and this one already. No motivational issues here—but Spurs are only good enough to get a result if Chelsea leaves it in second gear.
In the late game, Spurs have a pile of absentees. Aaron Lennon (groin), Vedran Corluka (ankle) and Wilson Palacios (suspension) all miss. Niko Krancjar will have season-ending ankle surgery. Ledley King and Jermaine Jenas are serious doubts.
Chelsea has no new injuries. Michael Essien (knee), Ricardo Carvalho (ankle) and Jose Bosingwa (knee) remain out. Ashley Cole will be available and start on the bench. Deco, Joe Cole and Florent Malouda were all rested against Bolton midweek and will play here.
SUNDAY
WIGAN vs. ARSENAL (-1, evens)
Wigan drew Portsmouth 0-0, and Arsenal lost 2-1 away to Spurs Wednesday.
Both teams look to bounce back from a disappointing result on Wednesday. We have to back Arsenal here, strictly on the head-to-head.
Since Wigan rose to the Premier League, Arsenal has won eight of the nine EPL games between the clubs (the other was a 0-0 draw). That includes a 4-0 home win this season. It’s just too strong a trend to go against.
Wigan probably has more to play for here. It sits only five points above the relegation line before the weekend games begin. Arsenal, however, has the Latics’ number.
Wigan has Gary Caldwell suspended. Hendry Thomas (quad) is a game-time decision.
Arsenal’s newest injury is Thomas Vermaelen (calf strain). Vermaelen played his last game of the season against Spurs midweek. Andrei Arshavin (calf) is still a week away. Robin van Persie could start here but doesn’t look like getting 90 minutes.
Pick: Wigan 0, Arsenal 2