English Premiership: Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
SATURDAY
MANCHESTER CITY (-0.5, -120; 2.5 flat) vs. ASTON VILLA
Man City drew Arsenal 0-0 away Saturday. Villa beat Birmingham 1-0 Sunday.
City has spit the bit out the last two weeks, getting only a draw at Arsenal after losing a home game to Manchester United. Those are great opponents, but if City wants to join them in the Champions’ League, it needs better results.
It gets no easier here against Villa. Villa has been playing inferior opposition, but wins are wins. These teams are near equals and City should not be giving up half a goal while laying juice. City -0.5 +120 is more like it, so the value is on Villa here.
These teams drew the game at Villa Park this season. A draw doesn’t help either side here, but a loss is fatal. Grabbing the half goal is the way I want to play it, but if Villa nick the win, I wouldn’t be shocked.
Shay Given suffered a dislocated shoulder last weekend for City and it’s a long way down to the second-choice goalkeeper, whether that’s Marton Fulop or Gunnar Nielsen. Emanuel Adebayor (thigh) and Gareth Barry (hamstring) are also likely out for City.
Richard Dunne (head gash) is theoretically a question mark for Villa, but he played last week in bandages and almost certainly plays this one.
Pick: City 1, Villa 1
SUNDAY
LIVERPOOL vs. CHELSEA (-0.5, evens; 2.5 over -120)
Liverpool beat Atletico Madrid 2-1 Thursday. Chelsea thumped Stoke 7-0 Saturday.
Liverpool’s Champions’ League hopes are between slim and none, and slim hasn’t been seen since Christmas. Still, the club will want to go down fighting and stick a dagger in Chelsea in the process.
Lots of players are playing for next season in the Reds’ lineup (whether they stick at Liverpool or get shipped out) and Liverpool hasn’t lost in six EPL matches running. The opposition’s been weak, but the club hasn’t folded.
Chelsea looked absolutely awesome last week but it must be remembered that Chelsea’s away record this year is only nine wins in 18 matches. If Chelsea really is the type of team that wins half its away games, this trip to Anfield should fall into the tougher half, shouldn’t it?
Liverpool will have decisions to make on the fitness of Dirk Kuyt (calf, probable, played Thursday), Javier Mascherano (knock, questionable, substituted Thursday), and David Ngog (hamstring, doubtful). Maxi Rodriguez, ineligible for the European game, will reclaim his starting place.
Chelsea has no new injury worries. John Obi Mikel (ankle) and John Terry (suspension) are available here after missing the Stoke match.
Pick: Liverpool 1, Chelsea 1