English Premiership: Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
SUNDAY
ARSENAL((-1.5, -150, 3 goals over -120) vs FULHAM
Arsenal clinch third place with a win or draw. Fulham has nothing to play for.
Fulham is cranky because its request to move this game to Saturday was denied. Fulham asked for the switch to have an extra day’s prep time for Wednesday’s Europa League final in Hamburg.
Rather than take it out on city rivals Arsenal, Fulham’s going to roll over here (and in doing so, take it out on city rivals Spurs). Fulham hasn’t been shy all season long about resting players before European games. There’s no reason for it to stop now ahead of the biggest game of all.
Arsenal miss Tomas Rosicky (ankle), Alex Song (knee) and Nicklas Bendtner (groin). Gael Clichy, Robin van Persie and Andrei Arshavin should all be available.
Pick: Arsenal 3, Fulham 0
CHELSEA (-2.5, flat; 3.5 goals under -115) vs.WIGAN
Chelsea clinch the title with a win. Wigan has nothing to play for.
This total is too high, even if Chelsea has been demolishing teams of late. Up 2-0 or 3-0, Chelsea is going to take the foot off the gas. If your betting is vanilla, I like the under.
I’m putting on a dangerous bet here. This one’s not for the faint of heart. You may want to join me if you have access to a good live betting site.
I’m going to put on at least five times my normal unit stake under 3.5. If I see even money, it’s going to be 10 times. Then I’m going to sit back and pray that Wigan holds on for 15 minutes.
After 15 minutes, I’m going to start betting out overs at +110 or better every few minutes. Over 3.5, over 3.25 (that in-between Asian price where half your bet gets put on “Over 3” and half gets put on at “Over 3.5”), over 3, over 2.5, etc.
The plan is to make five percent on my money, set up a modest middle if the game lands 2, and a massive middle if it lands 3.
If this thing lands, I’ll make my 2010 profits on this game alone. If Chelsea scores early and often, well, there’s not that much to bet before World Cup anyway, so I’ll smash my fist through the wall and stick to beer-sized bets for the next few weeks.
Chelsea have no new injury worries.
Wigan will be without Marcelo Moreno (ankle, hamstring), Titus Bramble (stress fracture, Chris Kirkland (hand) and Scott Sinclair (on loan from Chelsea and thus ineligible). Charles N’Zogbia is available to play.
Pick: Chelsea 2 or 3, Wigan 0