English Premiership: Weekend Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
SATURDAY
ASTON VILLA (pick, -130) vs. TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
Villa drew Burnley 1-1 away Saturday; Spurs thumped Wigan 9-1 Sunday
This is a game that neutrals would somehow like to see both teams win. It’d be nice to have two new faces chasing the title. As it is, neither of these teams wants a draw out of this game. The total (2.5 over -140) not only reflects that, the total’s unbettable.
Give us the home team, Villa, on principle then. Unlike last year, Villa Park is turning into something of a fortress. Wigan won there on Opening Day but since then Villa have beaten everybody from Pompey to Chelsea in front of their home fans. With money back if there’s a draw, Villa look like the surest play here.
The pick line would be much more expensive had Spurs not run riot against Wigan. Jermain Defoe will be more closely watched here after banging in five goals on Sunday. Sadly for Spurs the midweek has been less about celebration and more about the Pavlyuchenko drama. Left on the bench and unlikely to see playing time going forward, the Russian wants out and it’s caused a rift in the dressing room.
Stewart Downing looks to make his home debut for Villa after seven months out injured. James Collins (groin) is a game-time decision. Spurs are still without Ledley King (hamstring), Luka Modric (fractured fibula), and Carlo Cudicini (pelvis).
Pick: Villa 2, Spurs 1
SUNDAY
Three Derbies on the card make for must-see TV. I’ve no opinion on Wolves (pick -135) vs. Birmingham. I half like Arsenal (pick -115) over Chelsea, but the bet is certainly on the Merseyside game:
EVERTON vs. LIVERPOOL (-0.5, +115)
Everton lost 3-2 away to Hull and Liverpool beat Debrecen 1-0 away Tuesday
Both these teams come into this game disappointed. Everton was surely banking on getting a result away at Hull and Liverpool crashed out of the Champions’ League despite winning in Hungary. We’ve been fading Liverpool lately, but need to get on them here at plus money against an Everton side that has been stretched thin by having to play too many matches.
In the last seven meetings between these clubs, Everton have not beaten Liverpool in regulation. That’s going to continue here – if you’re nervous about a fourth successive draw, the equivalent line is pick -200. Everton should avoid relegation in the end, but are in a bad spell and have gone poorly against above average teams this season. In games against Man United, Benfica, Villa, Spurs and Arsenal, Everton have no wins and a draw from six games. Liverpool have that sort of quality, so Everton is in trouble.
Everton gets Bilyaletdinov and Fellaini back from suspension. Rodwell and Saha are probable. Pienaar came through the Hull match without reaggravating his knee injury, so he plays his second game in two months here. Fernando Torres (groin) is a game-time decision for Liverpol’s Red team and Babel (ankle) is out. Johnson, Riera, and Benayoun look good to go.
Pick: Everton 0, Liverpool 2
KEEP AN EYE ON: Avram Grant, to no one’s surprise, is Portsmouth’s new manager. He’s an acquaintance of mine and I wish him well. They’ll be bettable going forward at inflated prices. Grant is good at getting the best out of weak teams. Not sure if he can save them from relegation, but if anyone can, it’s Avram. First up is a game against some team called “Manchester United”. Never heard of them. Should be a piece of cake. Ok, well, maybe next week.