English Premiership: Weekend Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
SATURDAY
MANCHESTER CITY vs. CHELSEA (-0.5, flat)
Manchester City drew Hull 1-1 Saturday; Chelsea beat Arsenal 3-0 away Sunday
City have seven EPL draws in a row. It makes sense to take them here +0.5 as they’re setting some sort of record for playing to the level of the opposition. The draw itself is priced between +225 and +250, and that’s not nearly enough (we’d be interested around +285).
Chelsea haven’t drawn a game yet this season (12 wins, two losses). Perfect at home, they’ve lost away to Wigan and Villa and Man City are surely the equal of those teams. Chelsea weren’t as convincing as the 3-0 score across town against Arsenal looked. Arsenal’s back was broken by an own goal, but Arsenal had 56 percent of the ball.
Craig Bellamy’s and Stephen Ireland’s knees should keep them out of the game for City. Ashley Cole (hamstring) should play for Chelsea. Kalou (thigh) remains unavailable, along with second stringers Bosingwa, Sturridge and Alex.
Pick: Man City 1, Chelsea 1.
SUNDAY
EVERTON vs. TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR (pick -120)
Everton beat AEK Athens 1-0 away Wednesday; Spurs drew 1-1 away to Villa Saturday
Pay no attention to Spurs’ League Cup defeat Tuesday. They were just as happy to lose that game and get knocked out. They’re up to third in the standings and don’t want distractions as they try to hang on to one of next year’s Champions’ League berths. Since losing to Arsenal on Halloween, they’ve been playing well and can pile misery on a slumping Everton side here.
Everton had more shots and corners than arch rivals Liverpool last weekend, but the quality was lacking and they couldn’t hold on to the ball. Everton are good enough to stay up but need to plug a defense leaking nearly two goals a match. They do not have the firepower to win games 3-2. Spurs are going to give their defenders nightmares and since a draw is money back, it really has to be Spurs on the moneyline for us.
Heitinga is suspended for Everton. Distin and Gosling’s midweek hamstring injuries make them unlikely to play. Yobo will get the game off and the official declaration is also a hamstring injury (he scored an own goal in the Liverpool match and the fans would be cruel). Jo should be fit but is no lock to start. Spurs are without Ledley King (hamstring), Jonathan Woodgate (groin) and Modric (continued issues from a broken fibula). Kranjcar is back in the mix after being ineligible to play in the Cup game midweek.
Pick: Everton 1, Spurs 2
KEEP AN EYE ON: Big sides Man U, Arsenal and Liverpool. These teams are usually an interesting go-against ahead of a meaningful Champions’ League game. The upcoming CL games are of little importance, however, so these clubs can give 100 percent this weekend. Fade them at your peril.