English Premiership: Weekend Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
SATURDAY
CHELSEA (-1.5 -125) vs. EVERTON
Chelsea lost 2-1 at Man City Saturday; Everton drew 2-2 with Spurs Sunday
Put Chelsea’s 2-2 midweek draw with APOEL out of your head. Having already won their Champions’ League group, Chelsea fielded a weak side. Similarly, put Everton’s stirring fight back against Spurs out of mind. If and when they fall behind to Chelsea, Chelsea won’t be nearly as sloppy.
There’s a gap in quality everywhere on the pitch here but the defense is actually where that’s most telling. Chelsea have allowed 10 EPL goals this season. At home, over seven EPL matches, they’ve allowed one goal. Everton have coughed up 27 goals, including 14 away. Against “big teams” on the road, Everton have coughed up three to Man United and five to Benfica. In this, their third test, they’re going to get blitzed.
The total (3 goals under -120) is much less appetizing than the side.
Michael Essien limped off for Chelsea with a mild hamstring strain Wednesday. Not wanting to lose him to Ghana’s Nations’ Cup team for six weeks, Chelsea insist Essien remains on life support at an undisclosed location. Deco (family illness) and Alex and Kalou (both with thigh strains) will be out for Chelsea. Everton’s revolving bad-boy door sees Heitinga back from suspension but Cahill missing this game for picking up a fifth yellow card last week. Yobo (hamstring) will be out for a month.
Pick: Chelsea 3, Everton 0
SUNDAY
LIVERPOOL (-0.5 +115) vs. ARSENAL
Liverpool drew 0-0 at Blackburn and Arsenal beat Stoke 2-0 Saturday. Both teams lost meaningless Champions’ League games midweek and rested a lot of players in the process
Arsenal is the bet here in Sunday’s lone game. Liverpool continue to struggle and are in real danger of missing out on a Champions’ League place next season. Liverpool lack any sting in their transition game and are slow to get back when they lose the ball themselves. Liverpool’s pedigree can’t be disputed, but a club as big as Arsenal isn’t going to be intimidated just by walking into Anfield and looking around.
Liverpool play 15 or 20 bad minutes every time out and while a 70-minute effort can push them past a lot of teams, they’re going to struggle against Arsenal. Arsenal +0.5 are a better bet than a draw or Gunners’ win here because Arsenal often play 15 bad minutes themselves -the first 15 minutes.
In 22 competitive matches in the EPL and Europe this season, Arsenal have never scored in the first quarter of an hour. If Liverpool jump on Arsenal early, a draw is likely. If Arsenal hold the fort for the first half hour, then a draw looks like the minimum they’ll get out of this.
Torres, Leiva, and Fabio Aurelio return for Liverpool. Arsenal miss van Persie (ankle), Rosicky (hamstring), and Clichy (back) but Theo Walcott is available after playing in Athens midweek.
Pick: Liverpool 1, Arsenal 1