English Premiership: Weekend Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
SATURDAY
MANCHESTER UNITED (-2 -125) vs. HULL
MU lost 2-1 away to Man City in the League Cup Wednesday; Hull drew 0-0 at Spurs Saturday.
We’re late enough in the League Cup than MU sent out almost a full team against City. Sir Alex and Co. will be upset they didn’t win. It gets much easier here against a Hull team that is winless in seven EPL games. Results of 2-0, 3-0, and for that matter 6-0 are all possible, so the key is how to bet it.
I don’t like laying more than two goals on principle, but if you deconstruct the total as a sum of team totals, MU -2 or -2.5 looks almost exactly like “over 3 flat”. Get whatever number is most advantageous.
Rio Ferdinand returns for MU from a three-month back injury. Dimitar Berbatov (dead leg) should also be available.
Amr Zaki, Hull’s new loan signing, is not yet fit. Kamil Zayatte has postponed ankle surgery to stay in the team. Jimmy Bullard (knee) is still a couple of weeks away.
Pick: Man United 4, Hull 0
SUNDAY
STOKE vs. ARSENAL (-0.5, -120)
Stoke drew Liverpool 1-1 Saturday; Arsenal beat Bolton 4-2 Wednesday.
No EPL Sunday so here’s a Cup game. The betting rules are identical. If this match ends in a draw, it will be replayed in 10 days or so.
This line has been hopping around 20 or 30 cents above and below the current price, all based on who Arsenal decides to run out onto the pitch. Fair enough. The schedule is getting clogged for Arsenal and they have a tough EPL stretch ahead.
So here’s the angle: get the team sheet 45 minutes before kickoff. If either Cesc or Arshavin starts (or both), Arsenal wins here. If neither start, the proper price is +110. Your strategy: bet Arsenal now at best-price available and if neither starts, scalp yourself or be content to have the worst of it.
For the record, I think there’s a 90 percent probability that at least one starts and this game goes off Arsenal -160.
As it stands Friday, the only player officially being rested is fullback Bacary Sagna. Sol Campbell looks set to make his Arsenal return at the back. He’s only the fifth player to re-join Arsenal, a club founded in 1886.
Pick: Stoke 0, Arsenal 2