English Premiership: Weekend Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
Players are filtering back in to the EPL as the tragic Nations Cup winds down. Check your teamsheets carefully.
We like two road teams this week who are in much better form than the opposition. Pick’em markets are at even money or better, but if you can find +.5 -180, or the Asian Price of +1/4 at -125 (1.80) that’s a better way to go after these games because the draw probability is high.
As usual, the draw prices themselves are not high enough to bet. You’d need +265 to be interested.
SATURDAY
FULHAM (pick, -120) vs. ASTON VILLA
Fulham lost 2-0 at Spurs Tuesday; Villa drew Arsenal 0-0 Wednesday.
Fulham have lost four EPL games in a row. Don’t be fooled by the FA Cup success against lower-division opposition. All these extra matches (Fulham is also still alive in Europe) won’t help this team down the stretch. Aston Villa is a better, deeper team. Villains are closing in on a Top-6 place and know that a win here means fourth is still up for grabs.
Fulham is completing the loan signing of Stefano Okaka from Roma, but he won’t be available this weekend. Chris Smalling’s transfer to MU has been delayed until July.
Nigel Reo-Coker could be out three months for Villains with a stress fracture. Villains have recalled Nicky Shorey from Forest, but have decided Barry Bannan is surplus and are leaving him at Blackpool until the end of the season.
Pick: Fulham 0, Villa 2
SUNDAY
ARSENAL (pick, -125) vs. MAN UNITED
Arsenal drew 0-0 at Villa Wednesday; MU beat Man City 3-1 in the League Cup Wednesday.
This match could not come at a worse time for Arsenal. Just as everything was coming up roses, the Gunners sent out half a team at Stoke and were bounced from the Cup. They could not recover midweek and now sit two points and a game behind Chelsea.
Manchester United is firing on all cylinders. After thrashing Hull, the Red Devils pushed past City 5-3 on aggregate to earn a place in the League Cup final. Man U matches up very well against Arsenal. Going back to March 2007, these teams have played eight times in all competitions. Manchester United has won five times and there have been two draws.
Arsenal misses Eduardo (hamstring) and Abou Diaby (calf). Samir Nasri (hamstring) is a game-time decision. Alex Song and Emmanuel Eboue have returned from Africa.
Rio Ferdinand begins what’s now a four-game suspension for MU. Nemanja Vidic returns from a nerve injury in the nick of time to take Rio’s spot at fullback.
Pick: Arsenal 1, MU 2