English Premiership: Weekend Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
SATURDAY
LIVERPOOL (-2, -120) vs. HULL
Hull lost 1-0 at home to Birmingham and Liverpool beat West Ham 3-2 away last Saturday.
Hull have been wretched so far but this handicap is too large. At -1.5 the bet is most certainly Liverpool. But at two goals, we need to bet the dog and bite our nails. We’ve opposed Liverpool a fair bit in this young season (particularly away to Spurs and at home to Debrecen, the latter game looking much like this one). So far it’s been successful. It’s not that Liverpool are poor. They’re not. The heavy-hitting oddsmakers who shape these lines have just fallen in love with them a little too much. This game finished 2-2 last year.
Hull were a little unlucky to lose away to Chelsea to start the season and know the task in front of them here - keep it close. Liverpool have the added distraction of an away game in the Champions’ League to Fiorentina Tuesday. The team sheet for the Hull game might rest one or two players as a last minute surprise. David Ngog is one bench player due for another game after scoring against Leeds in the 1-0 League Cup win at Elland Road Tuesday.
Hull’s starting lineup appears to be a secret as pressure mounts on manager Phil Brown. We think it’ll look a lot more like the side that lost to Brummy than the second-string unit that were thrashed by Everton in the League Cup midweek.
As always on these large handicaps, whether you agree with my opinion or not, consider playing the total as a synthetic way to get the side you want at the price you deserve. Giving Hull credit for half a goal, the total looks like 3-over-20. Hull bettors should take the better of the plus money options on Hull +2 and under 3. Liverpool backers should pay the least amount of juice possible between Liverpool -2 and over 3.
Prediction: Liverpool 2, Hull 1
SUNDAY
SUNDERLAND (-0.5, -130) vs. WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS
Sunderland lost 3-1 away to Burnley on Saturday; Wolves beat Fulham 2-1 on Sunday.
Sunderland has won two of their three home Premiership matches and the loss was to Chelsea. Chelsea has been perfect this year so it’s hard to fault Sunderland too much. They actually led Chelsea at the half before being over-run in the last 45 minutes. Against lesser opposition, the Black Cats will go all right. North East fans support their clubs well and Sunderland’s ground gives massive home field advantage.
Wolverhampton has a more confusing nickname in Bookie Shorthand: Wolves. They have a wolf on their crest, but not a lot of bite. They’ve only scored five goals in six matches and have only won one of their last four league outings. A largely second-string team lost 1-0 to a scrub Man United side in the League Cup Wednesday, after shuffling through the previous round on penalties after a 0-0 draw. It’s hard to get excited about League Cup games, but Wolves are not scoring at any level so it’s awfully hard to back them taking less than a full goal. We need to go against them here. (If you happen to disagree, instead of immediately backing Wolves, take a long look at the under.)
Lee Cattermole (heel) and George McCartney (hamstring) are game-time decisions for the Black Cats. Marton Fulop is available in goal, but is doubtful to start. Like the big clubs, Wolves want to make tons of changes from the League Cup team. In are defenders Michael Macienne (on loan from Chelsea) and Greg Halford, while strikers Kevin Doyle and Andy Keogh are the two in the 4-4-2. Dave Edwards will come in on the midfield wing, and dodgy Wayne Hennessey returns between the posts.
Prediction: Sunderland 2, Wolves 0.
KEEP AN EYE ON: The “Monday Night Football” game is usually rubbish since the best teams rarely play there, but this Monday’s game is must-see-TV. It’s also must-bet-TV. Man City is committed to playing attacking soccer this year; for their opponents West Ham, it’s in their DNA. Bet the over here. Nobody guarantees goals, but we can certainly guarantee chances.