English Premiership: Weekend Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
It’s time for club football again after yet another useless international break that’s seen high-profile players across Europe pick up injuries. Everybody likes Euros and the knockout stage of World Cup, but the club game is where we follow the stars week-in, week-out. And where we can make more money.
SATURDAY
ASTON VILLA vs. CHELSEA (-0.5, -120)
Aston Villa drew 1-1 with Man City in the last round and look like getting at least a draw here. This is a spot that’s made for the “+.5” bet, whereas simply betting Villa to win could be a lot trickier. Villa’s back four are settling nicely and 1-1 looks like a very reasonable result. Draws, however, seldom offer the punters value with most of the vig in three-way pricing hidden there.
Chelsea are a very deep team but are surely breathing a sigh of relief that Michael Ballack’s injury in Germany’s international game with Russia isn’t serious. Chelsea had a lot of players away on international duty and won’t want to stay in second gear against Villa with a Champions’ League game coming up Wednesday. But this is the spot to bet on Villa, who have had more practice time together as a unit this week.
Scene-watchers will be interested to see if Emile Heskey gets a run out for Villa after all the whining he did in camp this week with England. Ballack (ankle) is out for Chelsea while Peter Cech returns in goal after serving an undeserved suspension.
This is the early match, so get your bets in ASAP.
Prediction: Aston Villa 1, Chelsea 1
SUNDAY
WIGAN vs. MANCHESTER CITY (-0.5, -130)
Wigan lost to Hull last time out. That’s troubling, but they should still be safe from relegation this year. What Wigan’s not good enough to do is run with the big boys. Like it or not, Manchester City are just too strong for Wigan to keep up. The Citizens are set for another away win here.
Man City lost 4-3 to Man United across town at Old Trafford this year and drew away at Villa Park in the last round. Otherwise, they’ve been perfect in this young season with five wins in the League and League Cup progress by the bench players. They’ve defeated minnows, but they also beat Arsenal 4-2. If you throw out that thriller against Man United, in their other three away games the only goal they’ve conceded was in that 1-1 game with Villa.
Man City have no European commitments this year and will take a necessary step towards next year’s Champions’ League by winning games in spots like these. Robinho (ankle) is unavailable while game-time decisions will be made on Toure (heel), Bellamy (groin), Lescott (calf), Zabaleta (hamstring), and Petrov (knee). Most of them will play, as will De Jong.
Low-budget Wigan have a different sort of illness to deal with: jet lag. Thomas and Figueroa (Honduras), Rodallega (Colombia), and Scotland (T&T) will all arrive Friday from international duty in the Americas. Some or all will be rested for rest’s sake and because they won’t have had an opportunity to go over the game plan in training. It’s a long season and Wigan won’t burn these guys out early.
Prediction: Wigan 0, Manchester City 2
KEEP AN EYE ON: How managers of teams with European commitments manage their teams this weekend. Managers like Sir Alex Ferguson protect their players for Europe (Rooney’s being held out of a match this weekend, for instance). Some others like to run the guts out of their first string, especially before Christmas. Beware. This column is written on Friday so stay up to date on healthy scratches.