English Premiership: Weekend Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
SATURDAY
BOLTON vs. CHELSEA (-200, 2.5 ov20)
Bolton beat Everton 3-2 Sunday; Chelsea hammered Blackburn 5-0 Saturday
On Halloween Saturday we need to back Chelsea, who just might be the scariest team in the world right now. They ripped Blackburn apart last weekend, destroyed Atletico Madrid before that and look to be sure bets away to Bolton this week.
The Asian market (Chelsea -1, -125) and the English market (Chelsea to win: 8/15) were scalably out of sync Wednesday, and the difference between the two continues to narrow. We’re much more interested in laying -200 than in giving up more than one goal or laying the goal at -125.
Chelsea are missing Ashley Cole (knee), squad players Bosingwa and Zhirkov (knees) and backup keeper Hilario (concussion). Kalou (probable, deep bruising) is probable. Bolton continue to have O’Brien and Davis unavailable with knee injuries.
The over 2.5 is also interesting around -120. There have been 32 goals in Chelsea’s 10 matches so far. Bolton have seen 29 goals in the nine matches they’ve played. Over 2.5 is worth a punt when both sides are seeing an average of three goals a game. That said, don’t lay more than -130.
These teams met Wednesday in the League Cup. Chelsea won 4-0 at home. A win is a win which bodes well for our bet here, I guess. But both clubs rested lots of players. From a weekend Chelsea punter’s perspective, it would have been better had the Wednesday game been closer—let’s hope Chelsea don’t take Bolton too lightly now.
Prediction: Bolton 1, Chelsea 3.
SUNDAY
BIRMINGHAM vs. MANCHESTER CITY (-0.5, flat)
Birmingham beat Sunderland 2-1 Saturday; Man City drew Fulham 2-2 Sunday.
Under strength, Man City have drawn three in a row in the EPL. They still find themselves in the hunt for a Top-4 spot and the Champions’ League riches that come with it. Players are starting to return from injury now and they’ll win this game.
Birmingham have lost three out of four. Last weekend’s win pulled them out of the relegation zone temporarily, but it’s going to be a struggle all season long. Birmingham’s unusually small pitch is a nice home field advantage, but it actually suits Man City’s style – bad news for the home team.
Kolo Toure’s ready to go for City. He and several other players were rested in the League Cup game midweek. Birmingham gets Gregory Vignal back from injury but he might not start ahead of Ridgewell. Winger Keith Fahey (ankle) is a serious doubt for Birmingham, and they need to start second string goalkeeper Maik Taylor. First choicer Joe Hart is in on loan from Man City, and is forbidden to face them as part of his agreement.
Prediction: Birmingham 0, Man City 2.
KEEP AN EYE ON: The North London Derby between Arsenal and Spurs is priced to perfection, so that’s no bet, but it should be great fun to watch. Spurs can show they’re for real by earning a result, or show they’re the same old Spurs by getting smoked.