English Premiership: Weekend Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
We get one last round of club soccer before another useless international break.
SATURDAY
WOLVES vs. ARSENAL (-1, -130)
Wolves drew Stoke 2-2 away Saturday; Arsenal beat AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Wednesday
Wolves have not won in their last five Premier League matches. They sit on the relegation line. The good news is that the last three matches have been draws. The bad news is that none of those teams are as good as Arsenal. Wolves are struggling to score goals. They only have 11 in 11 games.
Arsenal are scoring plenty. The demolition of AZ followed a convincing 3-0 win in the North London Derby. They’ve scored 32 in league play now - four more than Chelsea with a game in hand. This change has been in the works awhile, but after the early part of Wenger’s reign as manager saw a lot of defense-first play, Arsenal are now officially a Fun Team To Watch™.
Well, Wolves won’t have much fun. They’re outclassed in every third of the pitch, and they won’t be able to withstand the pressure for 90 minutes.
Arsenal have no new injuries but the long-term absentee list won’t change with a two-week break following this match. Wolves striker Iwelumo (metatarsal) is out. That forces a return to the starting lineup for last season’s top scorer, Sylvan Ebans-Blake (attitude problem) long before manager McCarthy wanted to give him another chance.
Pick: Wolves 0, Arsenal 2.
SUNDAY
WEST HAM (pick, -120) vs. EVERTON (2.5 flat)
West Ham beat Aston Villa 2-1 Wednesday; Everton lost 2-0 at home to Benfica Thursday
Everton drew 1-1 with Aston Villa Saturday, so a recent common opponent is a nice reference point. Villa had a man sent off late in each match and must feel a bit unlucky as they outshot Everton 8-5 and Hammers 10-7.
There’s not much to choose between Hammers and Everton but three things make for a bet on West Ham. First, home pitch is worth something. West Ham haven’t exploited it well this year, but Everton have been poor away. Second, Everton’s goal scorer against Villa, the Russian magician Bilyaletdinov, picked up a red card later in that match. That means he’s out for this one. The whole offense flows through him, or at least threatens to, so that’s a huge loss. Last, Everton looked really poor in the second half against Benfica Thursday.
West Ham have long-term injuries to Boa Morte, Ashton, and Davenport. Ilunga and Cole will be game-time hamstring decisions. Everton have serious squad issues on top of Bilyaletdinov’s suspension. The list of long-term injured includes Neville, Arteta, Pienaar, Jagielka and Osman among others. Louis Saha (calf) is a game-time decision. Hibbert (flu) played Thursday and is good to go. Neill and Heitinga are back after missing Thursday’s game due to European ineligibity.
Hammers are the bet here. Over 2.5 is worth a “fun” bet at -115 or so, and a serious bet at even money or better.
Pick: West Ham 2, Everton 1.
KEEP AN EYE ON: Chelsea, over the next two months. The Court of Arbitration for Sport has suspended Chelsea’s tampering punishment until the appeal is ruled on next year. This means Chelsea can buy players this January. This does two things: it lets them run the guts out of their players because it means replacements can be bought to cover for the injured, and it puts the slackers on notice that they could be replaced in January. It’s good short-term news for the club, and is worth 10 or 20 cents to the line.