English Premiership: Weekend Betting Preview and Picks
By Shawn Young
Club games return after another useless international break.
SATURDAY
LIVERPOOL (-0.5, FLAT) vs. MANCHESTER CITY
City have an astonishing five draws from their last five EPL games and should get something out of this game. Most of their draws have come against inferior opposition, but the team is getting healthier and will give Liverpool problems in transition.
Liverpool are in a bad slump with five EPL losses already and the Champions’ League campaign on life support. Their one good result this year was a defeat of Man United on October 25, but this season has also seen losses to Spurs, Villa, Sunderland (freak goal of the year), Lyon and Fiorentina. Liverpool had a great September but have been awful otherwise. Liverpool need to be bet against until they get it right because their odds are always a bit out of whack – they’re such a public team. So we’ll oppose them here.
Liverpool Groin Update: Fernando Torres is out for Liverpool, but Gerrard is back. In the non-groin department, Johnson, Aurelio, Benayoun, and Riera are all available for selection, but it’s unlikely any can play a full match. Carragher returns from suspension.
Robinho (ankle) is unlikely to play for City but could make a late cameo appearance. Sylvinho and Petrov are out as well, but the rest of the team is fit.
Pick: Liverpool 1, Man City 1
SUNDAY
STOKE (-0.5, +115) vs. PORTSMOUTH
There’s not a lot that catches the eye on Sunday’s card, so we might as well go against Portsmouth. Both these teams were mentioned as relegation candidates this year. Stoke will be pleased they haven’t lived up to the hype.
Stoke are a club with a long, odd history (playing summer 1967 based out of Cleveland, Ohio) but little success. Paddy Power even prematurely and incorrectly paid out all bets that Stoke would be relegated after Stoke played and lost their first game in the EPL in 2008-09. Stoke survived, and look like surviving again this year. They’re doing it based on home results, and they’re home here.
Portsmouth are terrible and have scored only three goals in six road games. If they can stay within shouting distance of the relegation line, new players may be bought in January by new owners. For now, anytime we can get more than even money going against them, that’s a market mistake.
Punters with access to different numbers should get the best value. Here, -0.5 +115, pick -180, and the “Asian” style of “-1/4, -120” are all roughly the same. Get your best deal.
Stoke miss out on Abdoulaye Faye (suspension). Glenn Whelan (groin) will be a game-time decision. Portsmouth will be without Papa Bouba Diop (hamstring) while Hreidarsson (hamstring) and Dindane (chest infection) will be game-time decisions.
Pick: Stoke 2, Portsmouth 0