EPL Best Bets - Week 11
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Eleven games into the Premier League and Chelsea are massive 1/6 favourites (Bet $100 to win $11) to win their fifth English title. They lead the way with 29 points, with surprise package Southampton in second. But most tellingly of all, Chelsea are eight points clear of champions Manchester City, who are seen as the Blues’ only realistic challengers at 11/2 (Bet $100 to win $550).
Down at the bottom, Burnley managed their first win last time out but are still the only odds-on team to be relegated at 1/4 (Bet $100 to win $25). Amazingly seven teams - QPR, Crystal Palace, Leicester, Sunderland, Aston Villa, West Brom and Hull are all 7/2 (Bet $100 to win $350) or shorter to make the drop.
Let's handicap Week 11 of the Premier League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Chelsea -1.5 v West Bromwich Albion at 7/10
In the few weeks leading up to the international break, there was the sense that Chelsea’s stunning start to the season was starting to wane. Though they put in a decent performance at Liverpool to win, that was preceded by three poor ones against Shrewsbury Town, QPR and Maribor. However the Blues may have found their mojo again, particularly after Spain did not call up Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas, meaning that they will be fresher come Saturday. Chelsea’s home record against West Brom is fantastic, having won nine of their last ten at Stamford Bridge against them.
The Baggies’ recent upturn in form may have been halted by a 2-0 home defeat to Newcastle last time out. Despite the excellent form of England prospect Saido Berahino, they remain a squad relatively low on quality and inspiration. And Chelsea, so much sharper and more ruthless than they were last year, just love playing against this kind of team.
The Solid Bet: Over 2.5 goals at Arsenal v Manchester United at 8/11
The main reason for this recommendation is that both teams have so many injuries in defensive positions. Manchester United have twelve players out - the most in the Premier League. Daley Blind, Marcos Rojo, Rafael, Phil Jones and Jonny Evans are all out, while Luke Shaw faces a late fitness test. For Arsenal, Laurent Koscielny and Mathieu Debuchy are still on the sidelines, meaning that Nacho Monreal, despite consistently playing badly there, will continue at centre-back against Robin van Persie and Wayne Rooney.
Louis van Gaal and Arsene Wenger both neglected defensive additions in their summer spending, and this is a good indicator of how they approach matches. Both just want to attack, attack and attack some more and even at 8/11 over 2.5 goals looks too short. A draw is not particularly satisfactory for either side: Arsenal need to prove that they can beat the best teams, while Manchester United have not had a big result away from home since the Ferguson era.
The Outsider: Crystal Palace to beat Liverpool at 10/3
It was a choice between Palace at 10/3, and Hull to beat Spurs at 13/5. However, with Daniel Sturridge now out for another six months for Liverpool, I don’t think the public has realised quite how far they’ve fallen yet. They’ve already suffered timid away defeats to Newcastle and West Ham, and though Palace are on a tough run of form, they are the kind of team that can be very dangerous when they smell blood.
This fixture will bring back traumatic memories for Liverpool. Just eight months ago, they surrendered a 3-0 lead in the last 15 minutes to virtually hand Man City the Premier League. Since then, almost nothing has gone right for the Reds: Suarez has gone, the new signings have underwhelmed, Gerrard’s decline has continued and the defence remains terribly frail. Palace are the joint top scorers in the bottom half - with Liverpool, and they have a wide range of attacking options that can hurt an under-protected Liverpool back-line.
The First Goalscorer: Graziano Pelle for Southampton at Aston Villa at 7/2
Despite their wonderful start (and Villa’s poor one), I am not yet at the stage where I am comfortable backing Southampton at odds-on away from home. However this fixture looks perfect for them. This is the team with the best defence facing the team with the worst attack (five in 11 games in both cases). And what is more - Villa are without easily their best attacking player in Christian Benteke, who is suspended.
This total lack of penetration for the home side is one reason, even at 7/2, six-goal Graziano Pelle is worth an interest. He just doesn’t have very much competition on the pitch. He will be fairly fresh after playing just 27 minutes for Italy in their match against Croatia, and he gets superb service from Dusan Tadic in particular, as well as Shane Long and Nathaniel Clyne.