EPL Best Bets - Week 12

EPL Best Bets - Week 12
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com

It was a good week for English clubs in the Champions League.

In three England vs. Germany clashes, the English club won all three. Chelsea were fantastic in their 5-0 demolition of Schalke. The 1/6 Premier League favourites have now moved ahead of Barcelona in the betting to win their second Champions League title. Arsenal secured qualification with a 2-0 win over Borussia Dortmund, while a Sergio Aguero hat-trick kept Manchester City’s hopes alive with a 3-2 win against Bayern Munich. The only blip came from Liverpool (predictable - given their start to the season). However, both the Reds and Man City know that a win would send them through.

The most eye-catching game in the Premier League this weekend sees second-placed Southampton face Man City. Southampton’s great start may have been hidden somewhat by a relatively easy start, but a win at St. Mary’s on Sunday would be a huge statement of intent. Elsewhere, Chelsea travel to Sunderland, Arsenal travel to West Brom and Manchester United, fresh from a win at the Emirates, welcome Hull City.

Let's handicap Week 12 of the Premier League.

Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag

The Banker: Chelsea to win to nil at Sunderland at 23/20

Chelsea look by far the best team in England at the moment, and that is reflected in the 4/11 on them to win their 11th match of 13 in the league this season up at Sunderland on Saturday. Whereas last season, it was away games to struggling teams that cost Chelsea the title, this year they have had no trouble with such fixtures. Their only dropped points have been away to the two Manchester clubs. Sunderland have played some decent football on home soil this season, albeit with just one win to show for it, but they won’t cause Chelsea many problems.

Sunderland’s strategy against the big teams tends to be fairly defensive, and that is reflected in home draws to Spurs, Everton and Manchester United. Chelsea, however, are a cut above those teams, and 23/20 on them winning to nil is a value bet.

The Solid Bet: Manchester City to win at Southampton at 13/10

This is where we’ll see what Southampton are made of. Having started the season as the seventh or eighth favourites to go down, the Saints have won eight of their twelve games so far and sit second in the table. They have won five and drawn one at home, and will be in confident mood for the visit of Manchester City in Sunday’s early kick-off.

However, those six home matches have come against West Brom, Newcastle (when they were in crisis), QPR, Sunderland, Stoke and Leicester. On the road, Southampton have lost their two hardest matches against Liverpool and Spurs. And the more those two teams struggle, the worse those results look for Ronald Koeman’s men.

Manchester City have lost just two of their last 19 in the league. In Sergio Aguero, they have the best player in the Premier League right now. The Argentine has 12 in his last 10, and Southampton looked suspect to pace in their last match - against Aston Villa.

The Outsider: Everton to win at Tottenham Hotspur at 9/4

Both these sides were in Europa League action on Thursday, and it is Everton who are further along in their development as a side than Spurs. They won impressively in Wolfsburg last time out, and now have Romelu Lukaku hitting some form after a slow start to the season. Spurs, meanwhile, put in what seems like their millionth lacklustre display in the last three years as they beat Partizan Belgrade 1-0. Everton started the season strangely, conceding heaps of goals, but they have been more solid of late. The Toffees are now five games in the league without defeat, and have only lost once away all season.

Spurs are tenth, but really they should be lower. Their last two Premier League wins, against Hull and Aston Villa, have been identical. They have gone 1-0 down, played awfully, and have needed opposition red cards before they turn the game around to win. These lucky results represent two of their three wins since August. In that time, they’ve lost at home to Newcastle, Stoke and West Brom. Everton are a far better side than all of them, and can increase the worried mood around White Hart Lane

The First Goalscorer: Alexis Sanchez to score first for Arsenal at West Brom at 4/1

Arsenal are usually a team I look to oppose away from home, but this week might be an exception. They put in a very encouraging performance in the Champions League, and have one or two key players coming back from injury. West Brom are 14th in the league, and their only goal in their last three was an own goal against Leicester. They have been leaky at the back on home turf, having conceded twice in all but one of their games at The Hawthorns.

Without Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal would be nowhere this year. He has eight goals in his last eight games for Arsenal, and might just be too good for West Brom. With Arsenal struggling for other goalscoring options, it may be worth taking the 4/1 on the Chilean breaking the deadlock.