EPL Best Bets - Week 21
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The Premier League took a break last weekend as the FA Cup took centre stage. Chelsea and Arsenal won home ties comfortably, while things were a bit more tricky for Manchester City, who came from behind to beat Championship side Sheffield Wednesday 2-1, and Liverpool who edged past fourth-tier side AFC Wimbledon by the same scoreline. Manchester United won 2-0 at Yeovil Town with Ander Herrera scoring a wonderful opener.
In the Premier League, the big story on New Year’s Day was Spurs’s shock 5-3 win over Chelsea. Man City’s close win over Sunderland on the same day means the two sides are dead level - on points, goals scored and goals conceded. Leicester secured their first win in months with victory at Hull.
Let's handicap Week 21 of the Premier League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Manchester City to win at Everton at 5/6
Everton have been the disappointments of the season in the Premier League so far. A Romelu Lukaku equaliser in the FA Cup against West Ham stopped a run of four consecutive defeats, but the performance was typically stale for the Toffees this season. The defeats came against beatable opposition in Southampton, Stoke, Newcastle and Hull, and there is little to suggest they can overcome 5/6 favourites Manchester City.
City have been grinding out games rather than coasting them in recent weeks, but they have found that winning mentality that eluded them in the early months of the season. They have won eight and drawn one of their last nine games, and are returning to the ground where they grabbed a 3-2 win last season that was instrumental in their title challenge. At 5/6, they look a safe bet.
The Solid Bet: Tottenham Hotspur to win at Crystal Palace at 6/5
Alan Pardew had a good start as Crystal Palace manager with a 4-0 win at Conference club Dover Athletic in the FA Cup, but he faces a far stiffer test in his first home game in charge of the South London club. In the last twelve months, Spurs have become experts in edging out away games, while their home form has been below par. Their five away wins this year have all been by one goal, against Leicester, Swansea, Hull, Villa and West Ham. In Harry Kane, they have possibly the most in-form striker in the division right now. The Spurs youth product was unplayable as they dismantled Chelsea at White Hart Lane, and he looks a good prospect to score first at 9/2.
Alan Pardew looks a good appointment for Crystal Palace, but the idea of ‘Fortress Selhurst Park’ has been lost from last season. The Eagles have been beaten five times at home this year, and of those only Chelsea are a particularly good team. They are still in desperate need of a goalscoring centre-forward, and could be in big trouble if they fail to sign one in January.
The Outsider: Sunderland at 3/1 vs. Liverpool
Sunderland are always too inconsistent to really establish themselves as a comfortable mid-table club, but their record against the bigger side is fantastic. Four points in two away games at Chelsea and Man City all but saved them last season, and they dug out an excellent 0-0 in this fixture a few weeks ago. The Black Cats have drawn eleven games so far this season, and were unlucky not to add to that as they lost 3-2 at City on January 1st.
Liverpool have improved slightly of late, but there are still huge problems in the team. The squad is heavily unbalanced, with far too many technical players and not enough good tacklers and runners. Sunderland are a hard team to break down, and with Liverpool’s defence they will get chances. At 3/1 they look underrated.
The First Goalscorer: Olivier Giroud for Arsenal vs. Stoke City at 4/1
Olivier Giroud is not the perfect striker, but he is underrated. His record over his two and a half seasons in England has improved gradually. He scored 17 in his first season, 21 in the next. Despite being hit with injury this year, his six goals have come roughly every 100 minutes, and he was excellent in the Gunners’ 3-2 defeat at Stoke in December.
Stoke’s defence is still as solid as ever, conceding 24 in 20 games, but Arsenal create so many chances in their home games that Giroud will have ample opportunity to score. 30 of his 44 goals in an Arsenal shirt have come at home, and he should be bet on at 4/1 to break the deadlock against Stoke.