EPL Best Bets - Week 22
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
After surrendering an eight-point lead at the top of the Premier League, Chelsea had a good weekend on 10th January as they swept past Newcastle 2-0 while Manchester City could only draw 1-1 with Everton. Chelsea now lead the Premier League by two points, though they have a tough away game at Swansea to deal with this weekend. City, having just signed Wilfried Bony from Swansea, face Arsenal in Sunday’s early kick-off.
In the race for fourth, Southampton travel to Newcastle while Tottenham welcome Sunderland to White Hart Lane. Liverpool travel to Aston Villa for Saturday’s early kick-off, while West Ham welcome Hull on Sunday.
Let's handicap Week 22 of the Premier League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Manchester City to beat Arsenal at 4/5
Manchester City look set to run the course with Chelsea for the Premier League title, and I am surprised to see them as long as 4/5 to win at home to Arsenal on Sunday. Despite a draw at Everton last weekend, City’s recent form has been pretty good: while they have rarely won matches comfortably, they have been in a very handy phase of grinding out results against inferior teams.
They defeated Arsenal 6-3 in this fixture last year, and with Arsenal’s record against teams around them, it is hard to make a case for the Gunners at 7/2. They have a mental fragility that prevents them from competing with teams around them, and City have the confidence to give them a real hiding at home. 4/5 look good odds on a home win.
The Solid Bet: Newcastle United to beat Southampton at 9/4
After a run of poor results, Southampton have re-found their form. However, even the most optimistic Saints fan would struggle to make a case for the 7/5 available on Southampton to win at Newcastle on Saturday. They are without their two key centre-midfielders: Victor Wanyama and Morgan Schneiderlin, and this will have a large impact on a side to whom pressing and midfield aggression are so crucial. Newcastle showed some bright spots in a 2-0 defeat at Chelsea at the weekend, with Remy Cabella particularly impressing.
The Magpies have already won five times at home this year, including against Liverpool and Chelsea. Southampton have been involved in FA Cup replays where Newcastle have not, and it would take a brave man to oppose John Carver’s men at 9/4 on Saturday.
The Outsider: West Bromwich Albion to win at Everton at 4/1
The Monday night game in the Premier League sees Everton welcome Tony Pulis’s West Bromwich Albion to Goodison Park. West Brom have had an excellent start under Pulis, beating Gateshead 7-0 in the FA Cup before edging past Hull 1-0 in the league. Everton will be devastated after their defeat on penalties to West Ham with ten men in the FA Cup: after securing a replay with a last-minute equaliser and having pegged back the Hammers with ten men, it looked as if this might be the week to turn the Toffees’ season around. Alas, they lost the penalty shootout and look poor value at 17/20 to beat West Brom.
Tony Pulis has a fantastic record battling against relegation from the Premier League: after years of keeping Stoke safely away from danger, he saved a seemingly-doomed Crystal Palace from the drop last year. He really does make a difference to teams, and this has not been reflected in odds of 4/1 about his team to win at Everton.
The First Goalscorer: Danny Ings for Burnley v Crystal Palace at 9/2
Burnley are relying on their home form to keep them away from the relegation zone. At the moment, that strategy seems to be working, as the Clarets have won three and drawn three out of their last six games at Turf Moor. They will see Saturday’s game with Crystal Palace as a great opportunity to grab another valuable three points in their quest for survival.
In Danny Ings, they have a man with the talent to take them close to safety. He has already scored six times for Sean Dyche’s men this season, and looks a good bet at 9/2 to open the scoring on Saturday. He scored the winner against QPR in Burnley’s last match, and has already scored six times this season. Neither side has any other outstanding candidate to break the deadlock, and Burnley have the confidence on home turf to continue their good form.
Newcastle United vs. Southampton Betting Lines and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com
Newcastle United and Southampton meet at St James' Park on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET, NBC), with the Magpies still yet to appoint a permanent replacement for Alan Pardew.
John Carver takes the reigns once more for Newcastle after overseeing two games so far. Both of those matches have ended in defeats, with Leicester City winning 1-0 in the FA Cup and Chelsea beating them 2-0 in the league at Stamford Bridge, despite a strong performance from the Magpies.
After struggling on the road, losing their last five away games, Newcastle have been picking up points at home, losing only once in nine matches and winning five of their last seven games. William Hill U.S. prices them at +235 odds to beat Southampton.
The Saints have looked back to their best after a mid-season wobble that saw them lose five games on the spin. Ronald Koeman's side are unbeaten in their last seven games, winning five of those, including a 1-0 win away at Manchester United last weekend.
Saturday's visitors battled through an FA Cup replay midweek against Ipswich, with Shane Long's goal good enough to see them progress. William Hill U.S. prices them at +120 to win, with the same book pricing the draw at +235 odds.
Koeman took no chances midweek against Ipswich, naming a strong 11 to show that he is taking the FA Cup seriously. However, that decision may come back to bite him, with Victor Wanyama pulling up in the match to add to their list of injuries. Fellow midfielder Morgan Schneiderlin missed out on the game in midweek, too, and is doubtful for Saturday.
This leaves the Saints short in the defensive midfield position and gives Newcastle hope of gaining a result.
Carver will be keen to grab a share of the spoils and help his chances of landing the manager's job on a full-time basis this weekend. Despite Newcastle also struggling with injuries, Tim Krul came back into the team against Chelsea, which is a huge plus for the Magpies.
The price of them to win at +235 is tempting, but the safer option of 11-to-8 (+138) in the 'draw no bet' market (which can be found outside of Las Vegas) is certainly worth backing when you consider their home form and key injuries to the visitors as well as the international call ups that will affect the balance of the Saints side.