EPL Best Bets - Week 24
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
With just 15 matchdays to go in the English Premier League season, we are getting to the time where we can narrow down the contenders for each spot.
At the top end, Chelsea and Man City look the only teams with realistic chances for the title. In the race for third and fourth, Arsenal and Manchester United will feel the most confident, but Southampton are still well in the mix while recent good form from Tottenham and Liverpool will give both hope. Down at the bottom, there are still eight teams who are all looking nervously over their shoulder. It promises to be a fascinating end to the season.
Let's handicap Week 24 of the Premier League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Southampton to win at Queens Park Rangers at 17/20
The major story from the week has been the resignation of Harry Redknapp from QPR, and his probable retirement from managing. As has been well documented, all 19 of the West Londoners’ points in the league have come at home, but they have now faced most of their weakest opponents at Loftus Road. Southampton, despite a 1-0 defeat against Swansea last time out, are still refusing to drop off, and in terms of quality are just in a different league from QPR.
Off-field issues have dominated for about six years at QPR now, and they never seem to get into any kind of rhythm on the pitch. They have lost four of their last six matches and Southampton’s high pressing game could cause a ponderous home side some real problems, particularly with Morgan Schneiderlin and Vincent Wanyama both due to start. 17/20 on the Saints looks a good price.
The Solid Bet: Liverpool to win at Everton at 13/10
Saturday’s football is dominated by two local derbies: North London (Spurs v Arsenal) and Merseyside (Everton v Liverpool). Both away teams are the 13/10 favourites, and of the two Liverpool look a far more attractive bet. They are slightly worse than Arsenal, but Everton are a great deal worse than Tottenham, having won just six league games all year.
After a poor first few months of the season, when they were dealing with injuries and the loss of Luis Suarez, Liverpool have now won five of their last six league games. Several young players, such as Philippe Coutinho, Emre Can and Raheem Sterling are coming into form, while the long-awaited return of Daniel Sturridge will be a huge boost. Everton have been the league’s real disappointment this year. Their win last time out at Crystal Palace was hardly convincing, and the renewed pace and menace to Liverpool’s football could see their poor form against their neighbours continue.
The Outsider: Aston Villa to beat Chelsea at 9/1
‘What?’ I hear you asking. Villa are arguably flattered by their league position of 16th. They have scored a staggeringly meagre 11 league goals all year, under half a goal per game, while Chelsea sit five points clear at the top. However, the Blues are still fighting in three competitions and have shown signs of tiring recently. They were on the back foot for much of the second half against Manchester City, and have Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas missing at Villa Park.
They also have a relatively poor record int his fixture. They lost 1-0 here last year thanks to a goal from Fabian Delph, and Villa could be a tough nut to crack if they take the lead. They have the best defence in the bottom half, and Chelsea have not fully shaken off an inability to find the crucial goal away from home. 9/1 is a very big price for any Premier League team in a home game, and it may just be worth siding with Villa for this one.
The First Goalscorer: Bafetimbi Gomis for Swansea City vs Sunderland at 9/2
Swansea have taken the decision to delay their search for a big money replacement for Wilfried Bony until the summer, giving former Lyon striker Bafetimbi Gomis a chance to shine. While he is not quite as composed a finisher as Bony, he is similarly menacing in the box and is a big physical presence to deal with. Swansea tend to get a lot of chances at the Liberty Stadium (where they’ve taken 21 of their 33 points), and Sunderland’s defence can crumble under too much pressure.
Everton vs. Liverpool Betting Lines and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson
Goal.com
Everton and Liverpool meet on Saturday (12:30 p.m. ET, NBC) with the host going in search of their first win in nine games against their bitter rivals.
It's fair to say Liverpool have dominated proceedings since 2010, winning almost half of the head-to-head meetings without tasting defeat.
Brendan Rodgers brings his side into this match off the back of a late comeback against Bolton in the FA Cup midweek. The Reds trailed for the majority of the second half, before goals from Raheem Sterling and Philippe Coutinho rescued them and secured a place in the next round.
Liverpool come into the game having won five of their last six league games, including victories away at Aston Villa, Sunderland and Burnley. William Hill U.S has Liverpool priced as the favorite at +125 odds.
It's been a tough second season for Roberto Martinez, with Everton struggling in the league, collecting only 26 points from their opening 23 matches, a harsh comedown from what was an extremely impressive first year in charge at Goodison Park.
Their victory away at Crystal Palace last weekend was their first win in eight and has eased them away from the relegation places.
While results may have been a touch disappointing overall, with only one home defeat recorded in their last eight games, they've proven difficult to beat at Goodison Park, but have drawn far too many matches, collecting a point on four occasions in this run.
Matches between the two sides at Goodison Park rarely fail to live up to expectations, with the last two results finishing 3-3 and 2-2. William Hill U.S. prices Everton at +220 odds to win and +240 to draw.
The total is 2.5 goals (OVER -115).
Despite having such a strong record against Everton and coming into this game in form, it's tough to back Liverpool to win outright with Merseyside derbies so tough to call and the Reds having played in midweek before being able to turn their attention to this clash.
Instead, it's worth looking at the goalscorer props offered outside of Nevada, with Daniel Sturridge worth focusing on.
Liverpool's star striker returned from a long-term injury last weekend, coming off the bench to score against West Ham. Although he only had a handful of minutes midweek against Bolton, he posed a serious threat in his time on the field and there seem few doubts about the England international not being sharp enough to prove he is back to somewhere close to his blistering best.
Sturridge seems to rise to the big occasions, netting three goals in his last two games against Everton. There's a good chance he will do the same in this game and come up big once again.
Goal.com best bet: Daniel Sturridge to score anytime at 11-to-8 odds