EPL Best Bets - Week 14
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
There is a round of English Premier League fixtures taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday, and after Manchester City’s excellent week, combined with Chelsea’s draw at Sunderland, there is a feeling that the Premier League title race may be closer than some thought. The Blues had their only bad result of the season at the Stadium of Light, drawing 0-0. It was a strong defensive display from the Black Cats - the kind Chelsea put in regularly in their big away games.
Manchester City travelled down to Southampton on Sunday hoping to put the Saints in their place after a great start to the season. They did just that, winning 3-0 despite having Eliaquim Mangala sent off at 1-0. It was a tough, clinical performance from City and highlighted Southampton’s deficiencies against the best team. While City may still challenge Chelsea, it is quite likely that the top two positions will not change for the rest of the season.
Let's handicap Week 14 of the Premier League.
Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
The Banker: Manchester City to win at Sunderland at 8/15
On the face of it, this has the makings of an upset. Sunderland’s home record against the big teams, particularly Manchester City, is excellent. They are on a decent run of form, and have the advantage of an extra day’s rest over City. Their last game was at home, while City had to travel all the way down to the South Coast on Sunday.
However, at 8/15 and with City’s two performances last week, they look a good bet. Sunderland’s performance of immense effort and concentration in keeping out Chelsea will have tired them significantly, and it is hard to see them putting in a similarly intense display. City are likely to be without Vincent Kompany, as well as the suspended Mangala, meaning Dedryck Boyata and Martin Demichelis would form a makeshift away backline. But Sunderland are not a great goalscoring team and have mustered just twelve in the league this year. With Sergio Aguero in the form of his life, City have no problems in that area, and if they can take the lead on Wearside it is hard to see them slipping up.
The Solid Bet: Arsenal to beat Southampton at 5/6
This price would be most unattractive ten days ago. However since then, Arsenal have beaten Borussia Dortmund and West Brom without conceding, while Southampton played out a tame 1-1 at Aston Villa and then lost 3-0 at home to Manchester City. The City game was seen by many as the Saints’ first real test of the season, and City outplayed them. This was particularly the case in the second half after crucial defensive midfielder Morgan Schneiderlin was taken off with injury. Defensive midfield is arguably the most important position against Arsenal, with the huge numbers of players they throw forward, and Schneiderlin’s likely absence will be a big blow.
With Olivier Giroud and Laurent Koscielny returning from injury, Arsenal are stronger now than in recent weeks. Alexis Sanchez’s excellent form is showing no signs of stopping, and they look a fair bet at 5/6 to beat Southampton.
The Outsider: Aston Villa to win at Crystal Palace at 3/1
Aston Villa have managed three consecutive 1-1 draws, with improved performances, in their last three games. They travel to South London for a crucial game at the bottom of the Premier League with Crystal Palace. Only goal difference separates the two teams, but there may be reasons to worry for Palace fans. They have already lost to West Ham and Sunderland at home this year, and their fast counter-attacking style (just like Aston Villa’s) is probably better suited to away games or fixtures against superior teams.
Palace, with Brede Hangeland and Scott Dann, have a fairly slow defence that pace-merchants Gabriel Agbonlahor and Andreas Weimann could exploit. The game might be quite a low-scoring one, so a punt on a 1-0 Villa win looks interesting at odds of 10/1.
The First Goalscorer: Danny Ings for Burnley against Newcastle United at 5/1
After a first ten games where they looked doomed, things have really started looking up for Burnley with seven points from their last three games. Admittedly, the opponents in those games (Hull, Stoke and Aston Villa) are the ones Burnley need to get points off if they are to stand any chance of surivival, but the performances had much more confidence about them, and they will see their game with Newcastle as another opportunity to start climbing the table.
At 5/1 Danny Ings, whose 20 goals last year were crucial to the Clarets’ surprise promotion, looks a good bet to break the deadlock. Ings has scored four in his last five games, takes Burnley’s penalties and is the focal point of their play. He receives good service from out wide from Kieran Trippier and Scott Arfield. He is by far their biggest goal threat.
Manchester United vs. Stoke City Betting Preview and Pick
By: Al Hain-Cole
Goal.com
Manchester United will be looking to maintain their strong form when they welcome Stoke City to Old Trafford on Tuesday (2:45 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network). Louis Van Gaal’s men have now won three consecutive matches for the first time since he took over in the summer and are clear -235 favorites to make it four in a row here.
The Potters’ 1-0 defeat at Anfield on Saturday was their fifth in the last eight games, and they are available at +650 odds to get back on track with a shock win in this one.
There has been just one draw in the last 21 meetings between these sides, but you can get odds of +375 on them cancelling each other out this time.
Having put in a performance against Hull that Van Gaal described as their best of the season so far, there is a definite sense that the Dutchman’s team are really starting to click.
With their early teething problems now seemingly behind them, the Red Devils should be more than confident of extending their winning streak when they take on a team that have rarely caused them with too many problems in the past.
Prior to February’s defeat at the Britannia during the David Moyes days, United had won 12 of the previous 13 matches against Mark Hughes’ side without suffering a single defeat, and a return to that form looks inevitable considering their guests’ current struggles.
Not only does a 10th consecutive home win against these opponents look assured, the Old Trafford crowd should have plenty to cheer about in terms of goal as well, as six of the last seven encounters at this ground have reaped OVER 2.5 goals.
With at least three being scored in six of Stoke’s last eight, odds of +110 offer excellent value on OVER 2.5 goals and them going home empty-handed on Tuesday.
Goal.com best bet: Manchester United to win and OVER 2.5 goals
EPL Betting Preview
By Soccer Authority
Covers.com
Can't miss game
Manchester United vs. Stoke City
The Red Devils are showing signs of returning to their best with wins against Arsenal, Crystal Palace, and Hull within the past two weeks. All signs point towards a revival at Old Trafford. Stoke City haven't found their rhythm yet but with players like Bojan Krkic, Arnautovic and Diouf they're a threat to any defense.
Key Stat: Stoke have lost their last 11 away games against Manchester United
Underdog of the night
Aston Villa (v Crystal Palace) - +320
Crystal Palace have only won two of their last 16 Premier League games, and Villa are well overdue for a good result. In our eyes, they are as good or if not a better than Crystal Palace. Take the value on the Villans!
Key Stat: Crystal Palace have conceded on average 2 Goals per game in their last 12 Premier League outings.
Team to watch
Liverpool (v Leicester)
Liverpool will face a struggling Leicester side later today. Liverpool will be buoyed by their recent win against Stoke City and their draw in the Champions League last week. Leicester are bottom of the table and haven't found a win in their last eight games. Liverpool will look to capitalize on a weak Leicester side tonight, but as always in the premier league we may get some surprises - remember, this Leicester side beat Man Utd 5-3 earlier in the season.
Key Stat: Leicester have won just 2 of their last 19 Premier League home matches (W:2 D:12 L:5)
Key Injuries
Balotelli & Sturridge (Liverpool)
Daley Blind, Angel Di Maria (Man Utd)
Fabian Delph & Ron Vlaar (Aston Villa)
Chelsea vs. Tottenham Betting Preview and Pick
By: Al Hain-Cole
Goal.com
After suffering a slight setback in their seemingly inevitable march to the title by drawing 0-0 at Sunderland, Chelsea will be hoping to get back to winning ways when they welcome Tottenham to Stamford Bridge on Wednesday (2:45 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Network).
That result saw the leaders drop points for just the third time this season, but they are clear -250 favorites with the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to bounce straight back by coming out on top against their London rivals.
Meanwhile, Spurs' hard-fought victory over Everton was their sixth in seven matches, and they are available at 7-to-1 to maintain their strong form with a big win here.
Two of the last three encounters between the sides have resulted in a draw, and there are odds of +375 on them cancelling each other out once again in this one.
Chelsea can also be backed -1 goal for -150, with Tottenham offered at +130 with the goal cushion. The total is 2.5 goals (OV -135, UN +105).
Despite suffering defeats in both of their two previous matches against Sunderland, Saturday’s draw at the Stadium of Light still came as a shock for the Blues, offering some encouragement to rivals already fearing that the title is Stamford Bridge-bound.
Jose Mourinho will now be determined to nip any doubts over his side’s credentials in the bud, and this can only spell bad news for a visiting team that have not won on this ground since 1990, when Gary Lineker scored the winner in a 2-1 victory.
Boasting a perfect record in front of their own fans after six league games this season, Chelsea will be confident of maintaining that dominant streak over Mauricio Pochettino’s men even without the services of Diego Costa, who will miss the game through suspension.
What’s more, the home crowd should not have to wait too long to see a breakthrough, as Kevin Mirallas’ goal for Everton on Sunday was the sixth that Tottenham have conceded in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League matches already this campaign.
Such a slow start is bound to be punished by an opponent that has gone in ahead at the break in each of their last four home league games, meaning even-money odds are well worth backing on them doing the same in another victory on Wednesday. The Chelsea to lead at the half and at fulltime prop can be found outside of Las Vegas.
Goal.com best bet: Chelsea to lead at halftime and fulltime for even-money.