EPL picks: Can Chelsea stop the rot at Arsenal?
By MICHAEL DA SILVA
While most of Europe’s teams kick back during their winter break, there is no such luxury for the 20 clubs that make up the Premier League. Barely 24 hours after unwrapping their presents, Drogba, Nasri, Tevez, et al will pull on their gloves and throw on their snoods for a full program of domestic clashes. And with Chelsea traveling to the Emirates to face Arsenal, it’s another unmissable weekend of action.
Sunday 26th December
Newcastle (+225) vs. Manchester City (+125)
Newcastle plays host to Manchester City Sunday, as Roberto Mancini’s men look to bounce back from their surprise home defeat to Everton Monday with a tricky game at St James’s Park. This game is, of course, the reverse fixture of the game in which Newcastle’s Hatem Ben Arfa suffered that horrendous broken leg at the hands of Nigel de Jong.
Newcastle’s home form has been erratic this season to say the least, but the Magpies have raised their game against the bigger teams. Convincing wins against Liverpool (3-1), Sunderland (5-1) and Aston Villa (6-0) and a 1-1 tie with Chelsea last month indicate that Newcastle have the ammunition to unlock the best teams at home.
Their main asset, Andy Carroll, will lead the line against Vincent Kompany – the key battle in this game.
With City’s other central defender, Kolo Toure, suspended following his late red card against Everton, City face a tough task in keeping Carroll quiet. With 10 Premier League goals to his name already this season, he is +140 to score Sunday.
Newcastle, now under the guidance of Alan Pardew after Chris Hughton’s shock sacking earlier this month, will have to keep Carlos Tevez (+110 to score) and Yaya Toure quiet if they are to get anything from this one. Both have been in good form, especially Toure who, with two goals and three assists in his last four games, should definitely be backed to find the net again at +500.
And after claiming this week that only Lionel Messi is better than him, Not-so-super-Mario Balotelli could be worth backing to score at +140.
This is a huge game for Alan Pardew having had two weeks to work with his players since the Liverpool victory, but he should escape this one with a draw.
Pick: Newcastle 1-1 Manchester City (+500)
Monday 27th December
Arsenal (+162) vs. Chelsea (+175)
Just the game to ease that Christmas hangover and everything points towards it being a full-blooded cracker.
Arsenal, who have failed to score against Chelsea in their last three attempts, host the Blues in what is now the away side’s poorest league run since 2001. Arsenal come into this game fresh from defeat at Old Trafford, but remain in pretty good shape despite captain Cesc Fabregas admitting that Arsenal are "scared" of losing the big games. Given that they have lost 14 of their last 18 games against Chelsea and Manchester United, you have to think Fabregas has a point. But Arsene Wenger’s outlook is a little less defeatist.
"We are confident over taking Chelsea on at home,” claimed Wenger. “We face a big challenge. What we want is to produce an intelligent game full of dynamism. That is the only way we can win these big games."
While Fabregas (+200 to score) has failed to dust off the post-World Cup cobwebs, Samir Nasri has been playing out of his skin and his battle with Michael Essien in central midfield will be crucial here. Essien, Chelsea’s immovable object in midfield, is key not only to protecting their back four, but in instigating attacks and unless he and John Obi Mikel replicate the disciplined performances of Manchester United’s Darren Fletcher and Michael Carrick – who reduced Nasri, Rosicky and Arshavin to scraps at Old Trafford – Chelsea will be overrun in midfield.
Since losing to rivals Spurs 3-2, Arsenal have responded with three straight wins at home – 2-0 against Wigan, 2-1 against Fulham and 3-1 against Partizan Belgrade in the Champions League.
When - not if - Arsenal score Monday, back Nasri to be the man to find the net. The Frenchman is playing the best football of his career and such sparkling form cannot be ignored. He is currently a generous +188.
But Chelsea represent stronger opposition than the recent visitors to the Emirates and Carlo Ancelotti’s men should also score, given that Arsenal have conceded 10 at home in the Premier League (Birmingham and Blackburn have each conceded less) and because, well, Chelsea always score against Arsenal.
At odds of +140, Didier Drogba is the scourge of Arsenal and the man to back to find the net, having scored 13 goals in 13 games against the Gunners. After his goal set Chelsea on to a 2-0 win over Arsenal in October, Drogba said: "I don't know how to explain my record against Arsenal. Maybe it is just a question of being in the right place at the right time.”
The return of Frank Lampard will also boost a Chelsea side in desperate need of reason to smile and Florent Malouda, who seems to be suffering from burnout, should also start. But neither represent good goalscoring picks (both are +250), given their levels of fitness and form.
Unlike the heady days of October when Chelsea were some five points clear at the top of the table, Ancelotti’s side could find themselves seven points adrift of Manchester United having played a game more, if they lose at the Emirates, but I don’t think they will.
Cole vs. Sagna, Essien vs. Nasri, Chamakh vs. Terry, Drogba vs. Koscielny; Sink your teeth into that.
Pick: Arsenal 1-1 Chelsea (+500)