EPL Preview & Picks: Power Swinging in Manchester Derby
By Michael Da Silva
These days it may seem as though every Manchester derby is billed as the most important in years, but the significance of this iconic fixture to the big picture of the Premier League title race is certainly as great or greater than it’s ever been.
Sir Alex Ferguson now concedes that the team he once dismissed as “noisy neighbours” are genuine title contenders and their early meeting at Old Trafford Saturday dominates the EPL schedule this weekend.
Manchester United (-125) vs. Manchester City (+350)
With Rio Ferdinand set to miss out through injury, Manchester United’s talented but raw young centre-back Chris Smalling, will line up alongside Nemanja Vidic in the heart of United’s defence.
Without Ferdinand, United have looked shaky this season and, compounded by last week’s defeat to Wolves, United look susceptible at the back.
Carlos Tevez is fresh from hitting a hat trick against West Brom last weekend and, although City’s tendency under Roberto Mancini has been to park the bus in the big games, they have plenty of ammunition to exploit the gaps they will encounter at Old Trafford.
Of course, Nemanja Vidic’s kamikaze style of defending has marked him out as the best defender in the Premier League for at least the last season and United remain tough to break down.
But if Tevez can’t, Dzeko – City’s $43million substitute – can. Expect City to score.
The stakes in this one are huge and while November’s corresponding fixture (a dire 0-0 impasse at Eastlands) was a victory for nothing but pragmatism, the individual battles that will be renewed at Old Trafford remain mouth watering.
The best of these involves United’s vivacious but hot-headed right-back Rafael vs. City’s elegant forward David Silva. Although Silva can operate on either flank and will at times test Patrice Evra, much of Silva’s growing understanding with Carlos Tevez has been developed on the left flank and Rafael can be sure that a test awaits.
While a long and prosperous career lies ahead of Rafael, Silva’s nous may leave the young Brazilian feeling like an enraged bull unable to hit the flag. United can ill afford the red mist to descend on Rafael Saturday as it did during his spat with Tevez at Eastlands.
Short of being a liability, Rafael’s big-game temperament remains questionable (think red cards vs. Tottenham and Bayern Munich), so expect Silva to exploit this.
United very rarely fail to score at home (Rangers are the only side to have kept United at bay at Old Trafford this season) and will probably find the net at some point, so expect the resurgent Wayne Rooney (+120 to score) or Nani (+210) to find the net. Both have scored in the past two games after relatively barren spells.
But this could be the day the tide finally turns blue.
Pick: Manchester United 1-2 Manchester City (+1,400)
Fulham (+400) vs. Chelsea (-138)
While it may be difficult to get too excited about the rest of the menu when there is a main course of a Manchester derby, this West London derby between Fulham and Chelsea certainly serves as an appetizing desert.
With Fernando Torres and David Luiz now in tow, Chelsea will be out to prove that their January outlay of $114million wasn’t merely a rush of blood to Roman Abramovich’s head.
Branislav Ivanovic has been rewarded for his defensive solidity at Chelsea with a new five-year contract, but that won’t guarantee him a starting place against Fulham, with the classy Luiz eager to prove why his new employers paid Benfica almost $34million for his services. Not that he should have any problems, given his impressive cameo against Liverpool last week.
Luiz may have only found the net four times in 82 appearances for Benfica, but height renders him a threat at set-pieces and a goal on his first Blues start can be backed at +1,200.
While the loss to Liverpool will have hurt Carlo Ancelotti’s pride, a win at Fulham is fully expected. But the Chelsea boss has a juggling act in attack, with the tri-pronged forward line of Didier Drogba and Nicholas Anelka, alongside Torres, clearly not a long-term solution.
Fulham have not conceded a goal at home since December and are not to be taken lightly, despite their mediocre league position of 12th.
Danny Murphy will sit in a deep-lying midfield role and will come toe-to-toe with Frank Lampard in what will be the game’s key battle. If Fulham can contain Lampard, then the home side have a chance of pulling off a shock.
But Fulham’s Achilles’ heel has been their inability to score enough goals and, although Clint Dempsey has found the net in Bobby Zamora’s absence, Chelsea is a different prospect.
Andrew Johnson, though, is worth betting to score having rediscovered some of his old form in recent games and should be backed at +250.
Pick: Fulham 1-1 Chelsea (+550)