Euro 2012 betting: Quarterfinals Action Report
By Jason Logan
Covers.com
The European Championship is down to just eight teams following an exciting round of group play. The knockout phase of the tournament kicks off Thursday with a matchup between the Czech Republic and Portugal.
We talked to Aron Wattleworth of bet365.com about the betting action for that quarterfinal showdown as well as the three other knockout games this week.
Czech Republic (+450) vs. Portugal (-138, Draw +250) – Thursday, June 21
Portugal advanced out of Group B, this year’s “Group of Death”, and opened as a -125 favorite against the Czechs, who surprised many by topping Group A. Early action has been on Portugal and Wattleworth does expect some buy-back on the Czechs.
“Portugal is looking like they may shorten up a bit more. But with another full day before game day, it will most likely move to Portugal,” Wattleworth told Covers Wednesday night.
Germany (-300) vs. Greece (+1,000, Draw +400) – Friday, June 22
Germany was the class of the tournament in the group stage, as the only team to win all three games. They moved from -275 to their current price since opening but Wattleworth expects those odds to close under -300.
“This will be the banker match so far for the punters,” says Wattleworth. “(Germany) are the faves now, and look to deserve their billing as such.”
Spain (-120) vs. France (+375, Draw +250) – Saturday, June 23
The defending World and Euro champs opened the tournament as the overall favorite but has dropped to No. 2 (+240) behind the Germans (+225). For this knockout phase matchup with the French, Spain opened as a -105 favorite and has been bet up. France has been a tough side to read, with impressive outings followed by lackluster efforts.
“Avoiding Spain should have been big enough motivation to win the group, but they were very ordinary against Sweden,” Wattleworth says of the French. “So it’s understandable that Spain has gone shorter and most likely will go shorter before kickoff.”
England (+175) vs. Italy (+188, Draw +200) – Sunday, June 24
Of all the knockout round matchups, this one seems the tightest with the draw moving from +210 to +200 and England dropping from +182 to +175. There is history and a ton of motivation behind this showdown of fading soccer powers, but according to Wattleworth, it may be one of the least exciting games of the quarterfinals.
“Both teams can play very boring, but it looks like whoever can up with that little bit extra quality on the day will take it,” he says. “It may very well be one of the lesser spectacles in terms of how the game plays out. Both will be very afraid to lose, so I wouldn’t anticipate an enthralling game.”