Euro 2016 Betting Preview
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The European Championships have been expanded to 24 for the 2016 edition, but bookmakers still expect to see the same old names lifting the trophy in Paris on July 8. The rise in the number of teams means that, from four of the six groups, three teams will qualify. While this gives smaller teams a better chance to advance to the knockout stage, it also leaves more margin for error for underachieving big guns. It is unlikely that we will see many significant fallers at the first round.
Three teams head the betting future odds. In order, they are France (3/1), Germany (7/2) and Spain (11/2). All three have their strengths and their weaknesses, but it is Germany who look in best shape to win their first European Championships for 20 years and to follow in Spain’s footsteps by being holders of both this tournament and the World Cup.
Their results since winning the World Cup have been mixed, but history shows that what teams do in qualifying is irrelevant to how they perform at tournaments. A common theme in this tournament is the strength of the big teams’ midfields, and comparative weaknesses in defence at attack. Germany follow this trend. Their midfield is packed with quality: Khedira, Özil, Schürrle, Götze, Kroos. Thomas Müller will play up front, and while he is not an orthodox centre-forward, he is still an outstanding player.
At centre-back Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng form an effective partnership in front of the impregnable Manuel Neuer. It is only at full-back where they could be called weak - and if there is a place to have a weakness, full-back is a good place to have one.
But what Germany have most of all is tournament experience. Their results in tournaments since 2006 read thus: semis, final, semis, semis, winners. German football has undergone a decade of constant improvement, and this may be enough to see them over the line.
France, being at home, cannot be ignored. They have huge strength in depth but, looking at their squad, one cannot help but feel that they could be stronger. Karim Benzema, arguably the best European striker, has not been selected, while Raphael Varane and Lassana Diarra are important absentees through injury. Their defence looks very wobbly: both Laurent Koscielny and Eliaquim Mangala had poor seasons in the Premier League, while full-backs Bacary Sagna and Patrice Evra are well into their thirties.
Again, their strength is in midfield. Paul Pogba, Blaise Matuidi and N’Golo Kanté can match any midfield in the world, while Antoine Griezmann is coming off the back of a career-defining season with Atletico Madrid. Olivier Giroud is no Karim Benzema, but he and Griezmann have formed an effective partnership. However in a match-up with Germany, France would likely come out losers.
Next come Spain, with arguably the deepest pool of high quality players to choose from. A team that was able to leave Diego Costa, Juan Mata, Isco and Saúl Ñíguez out of their squad must be respected. Defensively they look strong, with a likely back four of Azpilicueta, Pique, Ramos and Jordi Alba, but Spain’s problem is more to do with style.
Their three consecutive tournament wins from 2008 to 2012 came at a time when the tiki-taka style of football mastered by Barcelona and Spain conquered all. But since then, teams have constantly found ways to expose it. And while Barcelona, and Pep Guardiola as Bayern Munich manager, have adapted their style, Spain’s way of playing has not progressed.
And then there is the perennial problem of whether to play a striker, and if so, who to play. At present Álvaro Morata looks most likely to play up front, but this is a dilemma that Spain have never quite solved. Their top scorer in qualifying, Pablo Alcácer, did not even make the squad.
So to the rest: and next in the betting are England at 17/2. The positives for England are form: they won all ten qualifiers (admittedly in an easy group) and their three pre-tournament friendlies, as well as winning 3-2 in Germany in march, an exciting group of talented young players, and an easy draw.
However the negatives are too great to ignore: Their three centre-backs (Chris Smalling, Gary Cahill and John Stones) would not even have made the squad ten or 15 years ago, and manager Roy Hodgson still seems unsure of both his first XI and his system. But perhaps the biggest problem is a lack of big players in their prime. To win tournaments you need players from around 26 to 31 who are at the top of their game. Other than Wayne Rooney and Joe Hart, England have few of these. They should go well, but Russia 2018 may be a better chance for an improving team.
Former dark-horses Belgium come next, and while 11/1 is a tempting price about a team packed with quality players, they should be passed over. In Marc Wilmots they have a relatively poor manager - he is playing the Premier League’s best centre-back partnership, Toby Alderweireld Jan Vertonghen, at full-back, for example. They struggle to get the best out of Eden Hazard, though he may be fresher than most having pretty much bypassed the season for Chelsea.
A very interesting bet may be Italy at 16/1. Much has been made of how weak this Italian squad is, and certainly, the midfield and attack look very short on quality. However Italy often go into tournaments unwisely unfancied - this is a team, after all, with four World Cups to their name - and there are reasons to be positive.
Chief among these is the centre-back trio of Andrea Barzagli, Leandro Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. The three Juventus men have been together for years, and are now managed by Antonio Conte, Juve’s former manager who knows exactly how to set them up. Italy are in a section with Belgium, Sweden and the Republic of Ireland, which they should be able to get through fairly easily. And in one-off knockout games the team with the sterner defence often prevails.
The last of the traditional favourites are Portugal at 20/1. Two positives here: by far the easiest group (Austria, Hungary, Iceland) and Cristiano Ronaldo. However they have not come very close to winning a tournament since their golden generation of the early 2000s retired, and with doubts over Ronaldo’s fitness they should be swerved.
Three teams have vied for the tag of ‘dark horses’. First are Croatia, whose midfield of Ivan Periši?, Luka Modri?, Mateo Kova?i? and Ivan Rakiti? can match any at the tournament for talent on the ball. A hard group and a certain lack of tactical flexibility may be their undoing.
Austria are one of the most improved sides in Europe and are 40/1 - an appealing price given their easy group, while Poland at 50/1 is another price that will interest. In Robert Lewandowski they have one of the best strikers at the tournament and the rest of their team is of a reasonable quality, especially Grzegorz Krychowiak and Jakub B?aszczykowski.
The other 14 teams are everywhere from 66/1 down to 500/1, and of these sides it is the team right at the bottom of the market, Albania at 500/1, who appeal.
They are the least known team in this tournament, but their qualification in a group without minnows (they faced Portugal, Denmark, Serbia and an improving Armenia) proved they should not be taken lightly.
In past years the teams who have vastly overachieved have done so thanks to organisation and defensive prowess - look at Leicester City and Atletico Madrid, as well as the 2014 World Cup’s main surprises, Costa Rica. Under veteran Italian coach Gianni De Biasi they will be hard to break down. The draw was kind to them, pitting them against France, Switzerland and Romania. There is little reason for them to be a much bigger price than Romania, Hungary, Northern Ireland and Iceland, and yet unfamiliarity means they are.
Future Betting Predictions
Germany to win at 7/2
Italy to win at 18/1
Albania to win at 500/1
Euro 2016 Top Goal Scorer
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
One of the great trends in football over the last couple of decades has been the concentration of raw attacking talent in South America, not Europe. The rise of Barcelona led to a renaissance of passing midfielders in Europe, seen particularly in the national teams of Spain, Germany and Croatia at this tournament, but many of the best strikers in the world are not at this Euros: think Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain, Luis Suárez and Neymar.
This means that many teams have dilemmas about who to play up front, and how many centre-forwards to play. For some teams, Wales, for example, the main point of their striker is not to score.
Look at the three leaders in the tournament top goalscorer market and you will see that none of them are orthodox centre-forwards. Thomas Müller is 7/1, while Cristiano Ronaldo and Antoine Griezmann are 8/1.
So it may pay to look at those who are guaranteed to play up front, and the man I like most in this market is Tottenham and England sensation Harry Kane at 16/1. From being a reserve two years ago he has scored 59 goals in the last two seasons in the league with the greatest depth in quality in the world. It is hard to believe that he is still only 22.
Unless something goes badly wrong, England should make the quarter-finals where they would avoid any of the three favourites. There is every chance of England making their first semi-finals since they hosted the tournament in 1996, meaning Kane should match the leaders in the market for minutes on the field. His record for England has been good since he broke into the team during qualification, and he is playing for a team that will be more attacking than at previous tournaments.
Kane is matched in price by Poland’s Robert Lewandowski. There is very little to choose between the two, but Poland have been drawn in a tough section against good defences with Germany, Ukraine and Northern Ireland. Lewandowski was the top scorer in qualifying with 13, but six of those came against Gibraltar while another three came in a late hat-trick against Georgia.
Müller is clearly a strong contender and the rightful favourite, but uncertainty over his position makes me hesitant to back him at that price. There is a chance that Germany will go with Mario Gomez up front and shift Müller either out wide or in behind the striker. In any case his positioning is good enough that he will get a lot of chances.
Cristiano Ronaldo has the advantage of simply being the best player at the tournament, as well as being lucky that Portugal were drawn in an extraordinarily easy-looking group. However there are doubts over his fitness, and he is often marooned up front when playing for Portugal, who give him worse service than Real Madrid. His unwillingness to track back and collect the ball from deep do not help this. Portugal’s chances rely completely on Ronaldo - so if you fancy Ronaldo to do well you may be better off backing them to win the tournament at more than double the price.
This also applies to Gareth Bale and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (both 40/1): if you fancy them to do well it may be a better idea to back Wales and Sweden in the Winner and ‘To reach the semi-finals’ markets.
The attacking star of Atletico Madrid, Antoine Griezmann, comes into the tournament in fantastic form, but he is likely to start out wide with Olivier Giroud through the middle. A kind group gives Griezmann the chance to plunder some early goals, but he may have to share his chances with too many people.
One outsider to keep an eye on is 6’5” Austria front-man Marc Janko at 66/1. He scored seven in qualifying as Austria - one of Europe’s most improved sides - won a competitve qualifying section with incredible ease, winning nine and drawing once in ten games. Janko is one of the few big target-man types at this tournament, and defences will find it hard to deal with him. Austria are in an easy group, and given both teams’ recent form there is every chance they can win the group ahead of Portugal, meaning a place in the quarter-finals becomes realistic for the Austrians.
It should be noted that each-way terms in this market are four places with 1/4 odds.
Top Goal Scorer Predictions:
Harry Kane to be Top Goalscorer at 16/1
Marc Janko to be Top Goalscorer at 66/1
Euro 2016 Group Preview
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The change from 16 teams to 24 teams will be felt most strongly at the group stages. The top two teams from each group will qualify for the Round of 16, as will the four best third placed teams. This means that just one win gives teams a great chance of progression - and four points would virtually guarantee it.
The effect of this will inevitably be that there are fewer big names falling at the first hurdle. But the more interesting question is whether this will have an impact on how teams play.
On the one hand teams may approach it more attackingly, thinking that just one precious victory could see them through; but the example set by Leicester City and Atletico Madrid may persuade the underdogs that defensive football is the key to success.
Group A
France - To win the group 1/3, To qualify 1/50.
Switzerland - 15/4, 1/4.
Romania - 8/1, 4/6
Albania - 25/1, 7/4
Following a recent European Championships trend, the host nation France have been dealt a relatively easy group. Defensive weaknesses may be exposed later in the tournament, as may the lack of a world class centre-forward, but it is hard to see them not winning the group with ease. They beat the second best team in the group, Switzerland, 5-1 at the 2014 World Cup.
Switzerland look a team to oppose, and the 1/4 about them qualifying looks far too short. Their squad is talented, but they were disappoiting in qualifying and some of their squad, such as Xherdan Shaqiri, have failed to live up to their hype when they were young.
Romania will be hard to break down, but their record of just 11 goals in 10 qualifying games shows where their weaknesses lie. Their match against Albania in Lyon will be crucial.
One of two teams making their major tournament debut in France are Albania, who defied odds of 150/1 to qualify. Their squad has fewer well-known players than Romania, but they qualified more impressively from a harder group. Experienced Italian manager Gianni de Biasi has them well-organised and they could spring a shock.
Verdict: France to get nine points at 13/8
Group B
England - 5/6, 1/10
Russia - 10/3, 4/11
Wales - 7/2, 8/15
Slovakia - 9/1, 11/10
This is a similar section to Group A, with one clear favourite and three teams fighting it out for the other qualification place or places.
And England, like France, have weaknesses in defence that they should be able to mask in the early stages of the competition. They won all ten qualifying matches as well as most of their pre-tournament friendlies. This is a team that is used to beating inferior teams, and they should top the group.
Russia have improved dramatically since firing the overrated and overpaid Fabio Capello, but injuries to talented midfielders Alan Dzagoev and Denis Cheryshev, as well as an ageing backline, could be their undoing.
They won’t admit it, but the other teams in the group will be privately saying ‘stop Gareth Bale, and you stop Wales.’ And their strategy really is very simple: defend well, and give it to Bale.
Slovakia look underrated. Their defence is solid and consistent, and a win at home to Spain in qualifying proved their quality going forward. In Marek Hamsik they have one of the best players in the group.
Verdict: Slovakia to qualify at 11/10
Group C
Germany - 2/5, 1/50
Poland - 7/2, 2/7
Ukraine - 17/2, 8/15
Northern Ireland - 20/1, 5/2
Germany are clearly the strongest team in this group, but in the last World Cup they did not show their best form until the later stages. They had to wait until the final group game to secure qualification, and given their tendency to conserve their energy it would not be wise to steam into them too heavily to win the group.
Poland finished just one point behind Germany in qualifying (and beat them 2-0 in Warsaw). They have improved hugely since being a one-man Lewandowski show at the last Euros, which they hosted.
Ukraine look severely underrated in almost all markets. In Andriy Yarmolenko and Yevhen Konoplyanka they have two excellent wingers, and the rest of the team is made up of players from Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kiev - two very good teams.
Odds-on to finish bottom of the group are defensively resolute Northern Ireland. They are not the worst team at this tournament, and have the advantage of playing Germany last, when they may be resting key players, but this group looks too tough for them.
Verdict: Ukraine to get over 4.5 points at 9/4
Group D
Spain - 4/7, 1/33
Croatia - 3/1, 4/11
Turkey - 9/1, 4/5
Czech Republic - 9/1, 10/11
Spain crashed out of the last World Cup after just two games having lost to the Netherlands and Chile, and while an early exit is unlikely this time they look poor value to win a competitive section.
Instead the 3/1 about Croatia winning the group is a tempting bet. Their midfield is one of the few at the competition that can compete with Spain for keeping the ball, and they go into the tournament in excellent form.
Turkey are rated very similarly to Czech Republic by bookmakers, but despite the Czechs finishing ahead of Turkey in qualifying Turkey are the team better placed to make a mark at the tournament itself. They have had a good year and, in Arda Turan and Hakan Calhanoglu, they have two more excellent midfielders in a group that should be very pleasing on the eye.
Czech Republic’s team is solid, competitive but short on match-winning quality. Their friendly defeats to Scotland and Poland do not bode well and they look the worst team in the group.
Verdict: Croatia to win the group at 3/1, Czech Republic to finish last at 11/8
Group E
Belgium - 11/10, 1/10
Italy - 13/8, 1/6
Sweden - 6/1, 4/6
Republic of Ireland - 10/1, 5/4
Belgium were disappointing at the World Cup in Brazil, but their deceptively young and ultra-talented team are that bit older that they can improve on their 2014 showing. Their defence should be fairly solid, but there is still a sense that they are less than the sum of their parts going forward.
Much has been made of this being one of the weakest Italy sides in years, and while that may be true there is still much to admire about Antonio Conte’s team. The defensive unit is arguably the best at the tournament, and despite the cruel absence of Marco Verratti they have enough in midfield and attack to beat Ireland and probably Sweden.
Along with Wales and Portugal, Sweden make up the trio of ‘one man teams’ at this tournament. But unlike Wales and Portugal, Sweden have struggled to find a supporting cast that can adequately help their star, Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
The Republic of Ireland will stick to form: in what looks like the most defensive group of the lot they will aim to be difficult to beat. In Shane Long they have a striker who is hugely underrated and who fits their system well. Martin O’Neill gets the best out of a limited group of players. Their game with Sweden will be crucial.
Verdict: Group E to be the lowest scoring group at 4/1
Group F
Portugal - 17/20, 1/10
Austria - 2/1, 2/9
Iceland - 6/1, 8/13
Hungary - 12/1, 11/8
Portugal looked the most vulnerable traditional heavyweight before the tournament, but they will be hugely thankful for being dealt a very soft looking group. However their price to win it when compared with the 2/1 available on Austria flies in the face of everything both teams have done in the last two years.
Austria are a very good team. In a tough group with Russia, Sweden and Montenegro they won nine and drew one. They are better going forward than Portugal, who have little besides Cristiano Ronaldo, and should have enough to get six points from the games against Hungary and Iceland.
Iceland are making their major tournament debuts, but bookmakers sense that they will cause an upset and have kept them onside: seven teams are a shorter price to win the tournament than Lars Lagerback’s men.
In the early 1950s Hungary were the best team in the world, but this time around they may just be the worst team at the tournament. They finished third in qualifying behind Northern Ireland and Romania and scored just 11 goals. Like many underdogs in France they will look to defend deep and nick a goal on the counter-attack.
Verdict: Austria to win the group at 2/1
Saturday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Group A - Albania vs. Switzerland
Albania are the 500/1 rank outsiders for the tournament, but while they are undoubtedly one of the weaker teams in France, there is little to separate them from the other teams available at three-figure prices. Their price seems to be governed largely by unfamiliarity, and seems especially big given the relatively weak group they have been drawn into.
They are 9/2 to beat Switzerland in their first ever match at a major tournament, with Switzerland just a shade of odds-on at 5/6. The draw is available at 12/5. Switzerland have never quite shown the potential the had four or five years ago, and they were relatively poor in quallifying, twice being beaten easily by England.
Albania are one of a number of minnows whose best chance at the tourbament is to concentrate on their tight defence. They are well managed by Italian coach Gianni de Biasi, and they know that keeping one or two clean sheets could be enough for them to qualify. A wish to keep the draw onside attracts me to the 5/2 about Albania draw no bet. They look an underrated team.
Prediction: Albania Draw No Bet at 5/2
Group B - Wales vs. Slovakia
Bookmakers cannot split Wales in this match, pricing both teams at 15/8 with the draw as short as 2/1. This is one of six games between, according to bookmakers, the weakest two teams in a group. That is likely that three teams will qualify from any given section may well mean that managers play more defensively than they usually would. Under 2.5 goals is incredibly short at 4/9.
But the interesting thing is that, while they are unable to pick a winner here, odds compilers think Wales are quite a bit more likely to progress from the group phase: they are 3/4 while Slovakia are 11/10. That discrepancy alone makes me think that Wales may be overpriced for this game.
Their team revolves completely around Gareth Bale. They defend deep, having a core of experienced, solid defenders, and then pass the ball to the Real Madrid man. Wales scored just 11 goals in ten qualifying games (Bale scored seven), but conceded just four. If they are to win a game at their first tournament since 1958, it is likely to be by one goal to nil, and 11/2 on this to happen looks a good bet.
Prediction: Wales to win 1-0 at 11/2
Group B - England vs. Russia
England are a much better team than Russia, and their price of 17/20 will surely be shorter by kick-off. Roy Hodgson’s men proved their ability to beat inferior teams in qualifying, winning all ten of their fixtures. They are genuinely good going forward, with goals aplenty in Harry Kane, Wayne Rooney and Jamie Vardy. A significant weakness lies in defence, but it is well protected enough that Russia should not cause too much of a threat.
Russia have picked up their form well recently after the sacking of Fabio Capello, but unfortunately they have been hit with a succession of key injuries in the lead up to this tournament. Their first choice central midfield of Alan Dzagoev and Ivan Denisov both miss out.
In defence Russia are packed with slow, ageing players, and England, who attack with great pace, are just the kind of team who can exploit that. They are a great bet to get their tournament off to the perfect start by beating Russia at the Stade Vélodrome in Marseille.
Prediction: England to win at 17/20
Euro 2016 Betting Cheat Sheet and Odds: June 10-12
By Covers.com
Euro 2016 is finally upon us and we here at Covers know you're all a bunch of soccer hooligans at heart. So to help you handicap the world's second largest international tournament we present you with our Euro 2016 betting cheat sheets, starting with the opening weekend kicking off this Friday in France.
Happy Hosts
France has been wildly successful at making the home fans happy, winning the 1984 European championship and 1998 World Cup as the host side. The French side (-325) looks to continue that successful run Wednesday as it hosts Romania (+1,100) in the Euro 2016 opener. France will be without forward Karim Benzema due a legal issue, but has plenty of firepower in his absence - most notably from Olivier Giroud.
Will Rooney Rule Russia?
Fresh off a win at the UEFA Champions League, Wayne Rooney leads a stacked England squad (-115) into Tuesday’s Group B opener against a plucky Russian side (+355). Rooney will be aided by sensational striker Harry Kane, who led the Premier League in scoring. The Russians come in off a 1-1 draw with Serbia; they have one of the older rosters in the tourney, but are favored to at least reach the Round of 16.
Yarmo Be There For Ukraine
It’s Andriy Yarmolenko and a whole lot of question marks as Ukraine (+525) opens Group C action at Euro 2016 against a heavily favored German side (-180). Yarmolenko will be in tough against the Germans, who are led by all-world talent Thomas Muller. One factor working in Ukraine’s favor: the absence of Marco Reus, who is dealing with a groin injury and was left off the final 23-man roster.
News and Notes
UEFA says it will monitor the Russian team amid a new drug scandal. A German network alleges that Russian minister of sport and FIFA council member Vitaly Mutko helped cover up a drug offense involving a player participating in the country’s top league.
Don’t expect to see any members of the home side partying until the wee hours. France manager Didier Deschamps has imposed a midnight lights-out curfew for his players for the duration of the tournament - a directive that includes late-night access to the games room.
Injury Updates
England defender Chris Smalling is on track to play in his squad’s Group B opener despite leaving Tuesday’s training session with a left knee injury. Smalling is one of the top central defenders in the tourney.
German center back Toni Ruediger is out of Euro 2016 after rupturing his right ACL in a training session. Ruediger was expected to be in the mix for a starting role, with Mats Hummels still dealing with a calf tear.
Weather Watch
France-Romania will see cloudy skies at St-Denis for the tournament opener, with temperatures near 70 F. None of the games over the weekend will be threatened by rain, with temperatures ranging from the low-60s to the low-70s at all venues.
Prop of the Day
First Goal Scorer, France-Romania: Olivier Giroud (+350): Giroud will undoubtedly be looking to make “amis” after being booed throughout a friendly victory over Cameroon - a game in which he scored. Look for he and the rest of the host XI to get off to a blistering start in St-Denis.
Key Stats/Trends
England and Russia have met twice before, with the Russians prevailing 2-1 in October 2007 and the English rebounding for a 3-0 win just under a month later.
Germany has a pair of wins and three draw in five all-time meetings with Urkaine; the teams most recently played to a 3-3 draw in an international friendly back in 2011.
France is the last side to win the European championship as the host team, joining Italy in 1968 as the only teams to turn the trick.
Euro Betting Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
France will be the favorites to win the 2016 UEFA European Championship as the host nation, and two-time defending champions Spain will be expected to have a strong showing. Germany, winners of the 2014 FIFA World Cup are also prime to take home more silverware, but these four teams with worse odds could also be victorious at the end of the tournament:
Belgium (9/1) - Belgium can no longer be considered a sleeper pick to make waves in major tournaments given the amount of talent in the country’s squad. Despite having a down year for Chelsea, goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is amongst the world’s best. And although the defense may not be composed of players in their natural positions, Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen, both of Tottenham, and Thomas Vermaelen of Barcelona, are immensely talented.
The midfield boasts the likes of Roma’s Radja Nainggolan, Axel Witsel of Zenit Saint Petersburg, and Manchester United’s Marouane Fellaini. Further up the pitch, manager Marc Wilmots will have a headache choosing which players to start. Yannick Ferreira Carrasco scored a goal in the UEFA Champions League Final for Atletico Madrid, while Kevin De Bruyne had seven goals and nine assists for Manchester City in the Barclays Premier League. Eden Hazard struggled for Chelsea this season, but he is immensely important to his country, and Everton’s Romelu Lukaku will be a contender for the tournament’s Golden Boot after scoring 25 goals in all competitions this past club campaign.
In a group with Italy, Sweden, and Ireland, Belgium will have a tough time in the early going, but a few difficult games could prove beneficial in the later stages of the tournament.
Portugal (20/1) - Everyone knows what to expect from Portugal’s star man in Real Madrid’s Cristiano Ronaldo, but the Portuguese side is much more than a one-man team. In fact, a combination of experience and youth could propel Portugal to European glory for the first time in the country’s history.
Goalkeeper Rui Patricio, who plays for local giants Sporting, has a wealth of international experience, as do Pepe of Real Madrid, Fenerbahce’s Bruno Alves, and Monaco’s Ricardo Carvalho in defense. Southampton’s Cedric Soares offers a younger option in the back, as do Joao Mario and William Carvalho of Sporting, Renato Sanches of Bayern Munich, and Valencia’s Andre Gomes in midfield.
In attack, Ronaldo could be paired with former Manchester United teammate Nani, now with Fenerbahce, and Ricardo Quaresma of Besiktas has played in plenty of important matches for both club and country.
Portugal will be the favorites to finish atop Group F composed of Austria, Iceland, and Hungary, and with a healthy Ronaldo the sky is the limit for this group.
Switzerland (66/1) - Switzerland will be second-favorites in Group A, but the nation should comfortably progress behind France and ahead of Albania and Romania.
Borussia Monchengladbach’s Yann Sommer is commanding in goal despite his relative lack of height, and Wolfsburg’s Ricardo Rodriguez and Stephan Lichsteiner of Juventus are world-class defenders. In midfield, Stoke City’s Xherdan Shaqiri will pull the strings, with Blerim Dzemaili of Genoa, Valon Behrami of Watford, and Arsenal’s new signing Granit Xhaka likely to star as well.
Up front, Eren Derdiyok of Kasimpasa and Eintracht Frankfurt’s Haris Seferovic could score goals, though it may be youngster Breel Embolo, who scored 13 goals in all competitions for Basel this season, who steals the show.
This team has a real chance to shock the rest of the field in France this summer, and at such great odds is worth considering.
Monday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Group D - Spain vs. Czech Republic
Spain’s style of football means that getting off to a good start is often crucial to their chances, and at the 2014 World Cup they never recovered from a harrowing 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands. This time around their opening game looks a lot kinder: Czech Republic are a solid, organised team but one with little match-winning quality, which is what you need when playing Spain: remember, you’re likely to have about a third of possession at most, so what you do when you have the ball needs to be good.
Before the debacle in Brazil, Spain had won three consecutive major tournaments. Statistically what marked these triumphs out was the remarkably low number of goals Vicente del Bosque’s side conceded - three at Euro 2008, two at World Cup 2010 and one at Euro 2012 - seven in 19 games. They still look very strong in defence, with Gerard Pique lining up with Sergio Ramos and Juanfran and Jordi Alba at full-back. It is hard to see the 7/1 Czechs getting many chances, and a better way to approach this than backing Spain at 1/2 is to get on them to win to nil at 11/10.
Prediction: Spain to win to nil at 11/10
Group E - Republic of Ireland vs. Sweden
Sweden are one of three genuine one-man teams at the European Championships, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic aside there is little to separate them from the Republic of Ireland, who dug out some excellent results in qualifying, including a 1-0 home win against Germany.
Their goal that night was a superb strike by Southampton forward Shane Long. Long is an excellent striker, a real nuisance to defenders who makes up for a lack of ruthlessness in his finishing by working so hard that he gets more chances than most strikers. For a team that will have little possession he is perfect. He has five goals in his last nine games for club and country, and at 6/1 looks a man to back to open the scoring.
Ireland, who are an agreeable 12/5 to win this game, look set to be stronger than their last appearance at a major tournament in 2012, when they were woeful. Sweden are 29/20 with the draw 21/10.
Prediction: Shane Long to score first at 6/1
Group E - Belgium vs. Italy
Italy may be underrated in the tournament, particularly given that their defence is the best of anyone in France, but they often start competitions very slowly. They beat England in their opening game at the last World Cup, but failed to get off to a good start at the three tournaments prior to that.
It is almost impossible to argue, despite Italy’s defensive proficiency, that Belgium are not the better team. This view was given some weight by a November friendly between the sides, which Belgium won 3-1 and dominated throughout.
Their average showing at the 2014 World Cup was partly due to the squad being so young. Players like Romelu Lukaku (23), Eden Hazard (25) and Kevin de Bruyne (24) are still deceptively young, but their whole team has two more years of experience at the top level behind them. They are 8/5 to beat Italy, and this seems a good price. Italy and the draw are both 21/10.
Prediction: Belgium to win at 8/5
Tuesday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Group F - Austria vs Hungary
Goals have been hard to come by at the European Championships so far, with a plethora of minnows with solid defences. Just 18 have been scored in 10 games - if it carried on at that rate the tournament would break records.
And it would be worth backing another relatively low-scoring game as Central European neighbours Austria and Hungary face off. Austria, in their first tournament since 1998 that they have qualified for (they entered Euro 2008 as hosts), would not have expected to be odds-on favourites in their opening game.
That they are is largely down to Hungary, who look the weakest team at the competition. They finished third in a weak group behind Romania and Northern Ireland, scoring just 11 goals in ten games. They largely rely on players well into their thirties, and it is very difficult to see where their goals are going to come from.
Austria won nine of their 10 qualifying games, and while they may struggle when they come up against the best sides in the tournament, they have proven they can beat inferior teams with ease. At 6/4 to win the game to nil, they look a good price.
Prediction: Austria to win to nil at 6/4
Group F - Portugal vs. Iceland
The clash between Portugal and Iceland - the last of the first round of group stage games - looks a very hard one to call. Portugal, tournament veterans, clearly go in as favourites against the rookies, Iceland. But both sides look very hard to call.
Portugal are 1/2 to win with Iceland available at 8/1 to cause the biggest shock of the tournament so far, and given how well Iceland competed in a tough qualifying section (they finished above Turkey and the Netherlands) it is the 8/1 that appeals more.
However given the way minnows have tended to approach games so far in France, a draw at 3/1 may be a better way to go.
An interesting selection here is getting on Augsburg and Iceland striker Alfred Finnbogason to score the game’s first goal at a juicy price for as striker who is almost certain to start. Finnbogason scored seven goals in Augsburg’s last 14 games as he helped the club climb out of relegation trouble, and was also a regular scorer at his previous clubs, Helsingborg and Heerenveen.
Prediction: Alfred Finnbogason to score first at 14/1
Wednesday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Group B - Russia vs. Slovakia
All 24 teams at Euro 2016 have now played exactly one game, and the second round of group matches kicks off with Russia facing Slovakia in Lille. Russia were fortunate to escape with a late draw against England in a match marred by trouble, both inside the ground and in the city of Marseille. Slovakia, meanwhile, were edged out by Wales. They really need to beat Russia.
Apart from a decent 20-minute spell in the second half, Russia were quite poor against England, and even at 7/5 they should probably be avoided. Slovakia’s team is more settled, but marginally lower on quality. They are 23/10. The bet that appeals most, however, is the draw at 9/4. Russia’s slow defence won’t be exposed too much by an average group of Slovak strikers, and Russia looked blunt going forward against England.
A draw would be a decent result for Russia, and is a value bet.
Prediction: Draw at 9/4
Group A - Romania vs. Switzerland
Romania put in a good performance in the opening game of the tournament, and it was only a late Dimitri Payet strike that gave the hosts France the perfect start to the competition. Romania’s defence looked resolute throughout, keeping a good shape and often dealing comfortably with the French attack.
Switzerland were unconvincing in a 1-0 win over Albania, the rank outsiders for the tournament who had a man sent off. Swtizerland had 54 minutes to add to their lead against ten-man Albania and could not do it. After years of waiting for a talented Swiss generation to have an excellent tournament, we may be waiting a little longer.
Romania are 9/4 outsiders and on the basis of the opening games, as well as both teams’ displays in qualifying, this is an attractive bet. Switzerland are 6/4 with a draw available at 11/5.
Prediction: Romania to win at 9/4
Group A - France vs. Albania
On paper, this looks like being the biggest mismatch of the tournament: France, the 3/1 favourites, play Albania, who went off as 500/1 outsider. Unless Germany need to beat Northern Ireland in a week’s time, you will not see a team bigger than Albania at 18/1 to win a match at this tournament. France are available at 2/9, with a draw a 5/1 shot.
Many experts predicted that the effect of adding an extra eight countries to this tournament would be a more defensive group stage, with three draws likely to be enough for teams to qualify. And so it has proved. Only two of the opening twelve games have had more than two goals. None have had more than three.
France should have enough to break down Albania, but against a decent Swiss attack Gianni de Biasi’s side looked quite solid in their opening game, only conceding in the fifth minute of a 1-0 defeat. France will be looking to pace themselves for what will probably be a long tournament for them, and after going the distance against Romania, they may try and conserve energy during this game, settling for a 1-0 or 2-0 win. Under 2.5 goals at evens looks the bet.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals at even
Thursday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Group B - England vs. Wales
In terms of demand for tickets, England’s game with Wales is the most sought after fixture in the group stages of Euro 2016. It is the first all-British affair at a major tournament since 1996, and tens of thousands of English and Welsh fans have made their way to Lens for this game. It promises to be one of the most entertaining games of the tournament.
This is because all 22 players bar Gareth Bale play in English football, and so are used to a certain reckless, high-tempo style of football. England - who have a population roughly 17 times bigger than Wales - are the 11/20 favourites, with the Welsh 6/1. A draw is available at 16/5.
However the best bet here may be to back over 2.5 goals at 11/10. England had enough chances against RUssia to score far more than one goal, and Wales, who looked like under 2.5 bankers at the begninning of the tournamemt, were more open than expected against Slovakia. They will be desperate to win this, and having got maximum points from their opening game, can play with a little more freedom than they otherwise might. At odds against, over 2.5 is a worthwile bet.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10
Group C - Ukraine vs. Northern Ireland
Before the tournament started there was some evens knocking around about Ukraine beating Northern Ireland, and while that has long since disappeared, there is still some value in backing Mykhaylo Fomenko’s side to defeat the Ulstermen at 4/6.
Ukraine were unfortunate to go down 2-0 to Germany, having matched their opponents for long periods. Ukraine looked solid in defence and dangerous in attack. Wingers Konoplyanka and Yarmolenko are well-known, but 20 year-old attacking midfielder Viktor Kovalenko really stood out as one to watch.
Northern Ireland put in the most limited performance of the opening round of games, losing 1-0. They never got anywhere near scoring. Defensively they are reasonably solid, but they looked overawed by their first game in a major tournament since the 1980s. They did well to qualify from a rather easy group, but they have been put into a very tough section in France and will be lucky to come away with any points.
Ukraine are much better than Northern Ireland and are value favourites.
Prediction: Ukraine to win at 4/6
Group C - Germany vs. Poland
The third of three games on Thursday where the favourite is around the 1/2 mark sees Germany take on Poland in a repeat of qualifying for these European Championships. And of all the outsiders, it is Poland who jump out as the value bet.
Poland beat Germany 2-0 early in qualifying, and while it could be argued that that was because of a German hangover shortly after winning the World Cup, it signalled that Poland are one of Europe’s most improved national teams.
They lived up to their billing as promising underdogs in their opening game, beating Northern Ireland 1-0. It should have been a much less close scoreline. Arkadiusz Milik and Robert Lewandowski’s partnership worked very well in the opening game, and the Poles never looked vulnerable defensively.
Germany are a rather unappealing 8/15 for a match they do not need to win to qualify. Poland only finished one point behind their opponents in qualifying, and at 6/1 look a good bet.
Prediction: Poland to win at 6/1
Friday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Group E - Italy vs. Sweden
The team who pulled out the best result in the opening round of group matches at Euro 2016 were arguably Italy, who put in an expert counter-attacking perforamnce to see off Belgium by two goals to nil.
Sweden, meanwhile, drew 1-1 with the Republic of Ireland in a match many believed they needed to win. But despite having Zlatan Ibrahimovic in their team, the Swedes needed a relatively late Ciaran Clark on goal to rescue them a point. They looked extremely average and will need to improve in tougher matches to qualify for the last 16.
The onus will be on 10/11 Italy to attack whtn the two sides play each other, and this may be more of a hindrance than a help. Shorn of Marco Verratti Italy’s midfield has a functional look about it with few ball-players. However their defence is extremely solid and they are unlikely to concede more than one. A draw is not a disaster for either team, and is a decent price at 23/10. A Sweden win is 4/1.
Prediction: Draw at 23/10
Group D - Czech Republic vs. Croatia
The first two games in this group both ended 1-0, with Spain seeing off Czech Republic and Croatia beating Turkey. The Czechs held out for 87 minutes before Gerard Pique finally scored the goal that sunk them, while Luka Modric scored the goal of the tournament so far for the Croats.
Czech Republic are far from the worst team at the tournament as their resolute display against Spain showed, but in this match they will have to be more open, and that could play into Croatia’s hands. With Modric, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic, Croatia can create lots of chances, and the focal point of all of these is Mario Mandzukic.
Mandzukic had several chances to score against Turkey, and though he did not get on the scoresheet in Paris he is worth sticking with at 9/2 to break the deadlock today. The Juventus man scored three of his side’s four goals at Euro 2012, and four years on he is still their first choice centre-forward. Croatia are 10/11 to win with the Czechs available at 15/4. A draw is 12/5.
Prediction: Mario Mandzukic to score first at 9/2
Group D - Spain vs. Turkey
Spain’s 1-0 win against Czech Republic was left very late, and came against a team who showed very little attacking intent. That will be different when Vicente del Bosque’s side meet Turkey in the last match on Friday. Turkey, having lost to Croatia and being, in any case, a relatively bold team, will look to press Spain a lot more.
If it works out, their style will not be too dissimilar from that employed by Holland and Chile in the 2014 World Cup. Both these teams saw off Spain, who were at that point World and European Champions, with ease.
Despite dominating the ball, Spain were not very incisive aganist Czech Republic, and they do not tend to score that many goals anyway. For them, it is often says, dominating the ball is a defensive tactic, not an attacking one.
At 17/2 Turkey are worth a punt. They are a fair bit stronger than the Czechs and play in a style that the 4/9 favourites may find difficult.
Prediction: Turkey at 17/2
Saturday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Group E - Belgium vs. Republic of Ireland
All the cynics felt vindicated after Belgium’s opening round 2-0 defeat to Italy. Here they were again - a badly managed team of individuals, unsure of their identity or their formation, getting deservedly beaten by a footballing powerhouse.
Lots of this is partly true. Marc Wilmots has come in for some deserved criticism, notably for moving Kevin de Bruyne out wide in order to accommodate the awkward Marouane Fellaini. There will also be pressure on Wilmots to drop Romelu Lukaku, who did nothing to appeal to the bigger clubs he wants to join this summer.
And yet, at 4/5 to win their next game against the Republic of Ireland, the pessimism around Belgium seems to have gone too far. Their record in qualifying showed they are adept at beating inferior teams, and despite the justified criticism of their display against Italy, they did create a fair few big chance. Ireland played decently in their 1-1 draw with Sweden, but their price of 4/1 underestimates the gap between the two sides.
Prediction: Belgium to win at 4/5
Group F - Iceland vs. Hungary
More than any other underdog, Hungary defied experts’ predictions in their opening game. Far from being the worst side in the tournament, the Magyars were fully deserving of their 2-0 win over much-fancied Austria. They had the better chances and defended resolutely. It was a superb display.
From looking like the least interesting group in the tournament, Group F may well be the most intriguing. This is due to the other result in the first round of games, as Iceland held Portugal to a 1-1 draw.
So when Iceland and Hungary meet at the Stade Vélodrome in Marseille it will not be the must-win game everyone expected. Hungary know that a draw virtually guarantees them qualification, while Iceland still have a game against Austria which, given how disappointing Austria were against Hungary, is one they can get a result from.
All this leads me to backing the draw at 21/10. Both teams would be moderately satisfied with it, and both teams are strong enough in defence that chances won’t be frequent. Iceland are the narrow favourites at 17/10 with Hungary available at 2/1.
Prediction: Draw at 21/10
Group F - Portugal vs. Austria
Austria were hugely disappointing in their opening game of the Euros, losing 2-0 to Hungary, but it would be unwise to write Marcel Koller’s side off too quickly. A record of nine wins and one draw in qualifying, as well as sustained, quiet improvement in the five years before that, demonstrate that their result on Monday may well have been a mere blip. This is, after all, Austria’s first international tournament since 2008 and there were bound to be some nerves ahead of the opening match.
For Portugal, however, the problems look deeper and more permanent. They could only manage a 1-1 draw with Iceland in their first game, and at 10/11 look poor value to get their first win of the tournament.
The prices for this game are almost identical to those in the Belgium v Ireland game, but that vastly overestimates the gap between Portugal and Austria. Belgium are better than Portugal, and Austria are better than Ireland. At 15/4 it is worth putting their performance against Hungary to the back of your mind and having a punt.
Prediction: Austria to win at 15/4
Sunday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Group A - Romania vs. Albania
As often happens at major tournaments, the least appealing games when the draw is made end up being the most intriguing when matchday comes around. And so it is when Romania meet Albania in Lyon. This is a must-win game for both teams. While neither has looked out of their depth, they are still awaiting their first at the tournament.
Both were cruelly defeated by late goals against France, and where Romania managed a 1-1 draw with Switzerland, Albania went down by a goal to nil. There has been very little to choose between the sides on the evidence of two matches against the same opponents, and because of this the 5/2 about Albania coming out on top is very appealing.
Their defeat to Switzerland can be viewed in light of the fact that they were down to 10 men for most of the match, and even with one less player, they matched their more illustrious opponents for large parts.
Romania are not a bad side: like Albania, they are better defensively than going forward, but they have not shown enough to back up such strong favouritism in this match. They are 23/20, with a draw (which would suit no-one) priced up at 13/5.
Prediction: Albania to win at 5/2
Group A - Switzerland vs. France
Given France have won both of their games and Switzerland are all but guaranteed to qualify on four points, this match is the first game at the tournament where both teams can afford to be more expansive in their football.
France are likely to make changes for this - a draw would guarantee them winning the group - but even with that in mind they seem too short to win this games at even money. They are, lest we forget, at home, and the price is more similar to what we would see were the game being played in Switzerland.
France produced their best performance at the last World Cup when they beat the Swiss 5-1, and while the main architect of that win, Karim Benzema, is not in Didier Deschamps’s squad, there is ample evidence that they are a comfortably better team. Switzerland are 9/2 with a draw at 2/1.
Prediction: France to win at evens (1/1)
Monday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Group B - Slovakia vs. England
England have had a strange campaign so far. As expected, they dominated against both Russia and Wales. But had it not been for Daniel Sturridge’s last gasp winner in Lens on Thursday, England would only have two points and would be facing a match against a competent Slovakia side needing a win to assure qualification.
Part of the reason for England’s struggles in the final third has been the form of Harry Kane. Though still an oustanding striker, the Spurs man looks extremely tired, and after two lacklustre performances is likely to be dropped.
Coming in for him will probably be Jamie Vardy, the man all of England was baying for after going into half-time 1-0 down to Wales. Vardy scored 24 league goals for Leicester last year - and of those 14 were the first goal of the game, more than anyone else in the division. He constantly makes an impact off the bench for England, and at 9/2 is a value bet to score first if he starts.
England are 3/4, Slovakia are 5/1 and a draw is 5/2.
Prediction: Jamie Vardy to score first at 9/2
Group B - Russia vs. Wales
The situation in Toulouse is simple. Russia need a win to go through; Wales need to avoid defeat to go through.
On the evidence of both teams’ games against England and Slovakia, Wales are simply a better team than Russia. This has probably never been the case before, but with Gareth Bale - arguably the second best individual player at the tournament - leading a solid bunch of Welsh players, and with Russia being decimated by injury and filled with ageing players, it really is the case.
It is understandable, despite this, why Russia are rated more likely to win than Wales: they need to. However given how bad Russia were agianst Slovakia, and how lucky they were to escape from the England game with a draw, you should run a mile from their price of 8/5.
Wales are 15/8, but given their defensive solidity and the fact that a draw would probably see them finishing second (assuming Slovakia don’t beat England), it may be the safer bet.
Prediction: Draw at 12/5
Tuesday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Group C - Northern Ireland vs. Germany
Northern Ireland's 2-0 win over Ukraine guaranteed them at least third place in a very tough looking group, as well as giving them a positive goal difference. The result is that, with just one game to go, all Michael O'Neill's men need to do is to avoid a heavy defeat to Germany, and they are very likely to go through.
Germany have been far from their best so far in France, and have four points from two games. They need to beat Northern Ireland to win the group, but the experience of their first two matches suggests they are unlikely to deal out a thrashing.
At 9/2 a 2-0 Germany win looks appealing. The result would probably be enough for Northern Ireland, and it reflects a certain lack of killer instinct from Germany. Germany are 1/3 favourites, with Northern Ireland 12/1. A draw is 4/1.
Prediction: Germany to win 2-0 at 9/2.
Group C - Ukraine vs. Poland
Ukraine were the first team to be knocked out of this summer's European Championships, but it was looking very promising after an excellent display in their opening game against Germany, where they were unlucky to lose 2-0.
They meet a Poland side who need to win to have a realistic chance of winning the group, and for whom a draw would very likely be enough for second, unless Northern Ireland pull off an unlikely win against the Germans.
Both teams' motivations are important to consider, but they have been more than factored into the prices. Poland are 10/11 with Ukraine 15/4. A draw, which appeals the most, is 12/5.
The difference between these two teams has been overstated. Several Ukrainian players would get into the Poland team, and this looks like being an even affair in Marseille.
Prediction: Draw at 12/5
Group D - Croatia vs. Spain
This will be a great game. Croatia and Spain have arguably been the two most impressive teams at this tournament so far.
Spain were utterly dominant before breaking down Czech Republic with a late Gerard Pique goal, before utterly dismantling dismal Turkey, with the tournament's best player so far, Andres Iniesta, pulling the strings.
The tournament's second best player has been Croatia's Luka Modric. He scored a fantastic goal as they beat Croatia, before his substitution was the catalyst for an unlikely Czech comeback from two goals down.
At 4/1 Croatia are definitely worth a punt. Spain are evens and a draw is 21/10.
Prediction: Croatia to win at 4/1
Group D - Czech Republic vs. Turkey
Turkey were poor in their 3-0 defeat to Spain, but they still have a chance of qualifying if they beat Czech Republic, and the two teams' results have been factored into the prices too much.
The Czechs were completely dominated by both Spain and Croatia, and they needed a combination of luck and defensive grit to come out with just one point from two games. Put simply, they are a limited side who are decent defensively.
Turkey look a much better team on paper, and it is not hard to see them putting in a performance that makes their price of 12/5 look ludicrous. Czech Republic are 5/4 with a draw 5/2.
Prediction: Turkey to win at 12/5