Saturday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Switzerland (1-2-0) vs. Poland (2-1-0)
Poland’s three group games only yielded two goals (Adam Nawalka’s side beat Northern Ireland and Ukraine 1-0 either side of a goalless draw with Germany), but their total of seven points from a tough group makde them one of the most impressive teams in the group stages of the European Championships.
They meet Switzerland in the first of eight Round of 16 games. The Swiss edged out Albania 1-0, and drew with Romania and a weakened France side.
Before the tournament I rated Poland much higher than Switzerland, and my opinion has not changed from the matches in France. Poland are able to exert an impressive amount of control over their games, and as their defensive record shows, they can keep teams out as well.
At 8/5 they are worth a bet in a match bookmakers expect to be tight. The goal expectancy for many of these knockout games is very low, meaning that a draw is as short as 19/10. A win for Switzerland is priced up at 12/5.
Prediction: Poland to win at 8/5
Northern Ireland (1-2-0) vs. Wales (2-0-1)
Remarkably, Wales vs. Northern Ireland is a knockout game at a major tournament. Wales put in a fantastic performance to beat Russia 3-0 in their final group game, and thanks to England’s dour draw with Slovakia, Chris Coleman’s side defied the odds to win their group.
Northern Ireland largely had their 2-0 win over Ukraine to thank for their qualification. Their best player at the tournament has been goalkeeper Michael McGovern.
The England vs. Wales game - the other all-British clash at this tournament - was an open game, and despite the fact that both these teams are basically quite defensive, the fast-paced British nature of both teams may make this surprisingly attacking.
Wales are the favourites at evens (1/1), but they are not so much better than their opposition that Northern Ireland will feel obliged to play very defensively.
Northern Ireland are 17/4 with a draw at 2/1, but it is the 13/8 about both teams to score that appeals most here.
Prediction: Both teams to score at 13/8
Portugal (0-3-0) vs. Croatia (2-1-0)
Croatia were extremely impressive in the group. A mad (and slightly unlucky) ten minutes against Czech Republic were all that stopped them from accruing maximum points. Their late winner against Spain turned this whole competition upside-down, leaving all the favourites in one side of the group and meaning Croatia are as short as 8/1 to win the tournament.
Portugal, on the other hand, drew all three games and were lucky to get through. Fears about them - i.e. a reliance on Cristiano Ronaldo and a lack of pace in defence - have been well-founded, and they now look a worse team than Portugal. They went off at 18/1 to win the tournament with Croatia 25/1, but tonight it is Ante Cacic’s side who are favourites.
At 17/10 Croatia, with all their attacking talent combined with a reasonably solid defence, look a good bet. They are a more complete and more talented side than 21/10 Portugal.
Prediction: Croatia to win at 17/10
Euro 2016 Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
The Group Stage of Euro 2016 is complete and the Round of 16 matches are set, with the Knockout Round getting underway Saturday with three intriguing matchups. We break them down in our betting cheat sheet.
Poland’s Sleeping Giant
Poland (+160) reached the Round of 16 in France despite getting nothing from Robert Lewandowski - but the Polish side will need him to be on form Saturday as it faces Switzerland (+220) in the first elimination round at Saint-Etienne. Lewandowski has yet to score in the tournament, and Poland’s future in the tournament depends on him ending that drought. Both teams scored just twice in the three-game group stage.
No Fail in Wales’ Bale
Wales (Even) stunned almost everyone by beating out England for top spot in Group B, and will look to carry that momentum forward as it tangles with Northern Ireland (+360) Saturday in Paris. The Welsh side is guided by sublime striker Gareth Bale, who converted in all three games in the group stage. Northern Ireland is the lowest-ranked team to advance to the Round of 16, and could struggle mightily to contain the red-hot Bale.
Redemption for Ronaldo
A Portuguese side (+205) that underwhelmed in the group stage could be in tough yet again as it squares off against Croatia (+160) in Round of 16 action Saturday. Portugal settled for three draws in the group round-robin, with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring twice in a pivotal 3-3 draw with Hungary earlier in the week. Yet, despite their struggles, Ronaldo and Co. finished with more shot attempts than any team in the group stage.
News and Notes
Ronaldo is on the verge of making history, sitting one goal shy of Michel Platini’s all-time Euro scoring record. Ronaldo moved past Alan Shearer and into second place with his seventh and eighth Euro goals vs. Hungary.
Fans hoping to catch Wales’ encounter with Northern Ireland may need to sell an organ. Tickets for Saturday’s elimination-round showdown are selling for a whopping 1,000 Euros - more than 15 times face value.
Injury Updates
Polish goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny will remain on the sidelines after suffering a thigh injury in his side’s group-stage opener against Northern Ireland. Lukasz Fabianski will once again start in his place.
All-world midfielder Luka Modric is expected to miss Croatia’s pivotal showdown with Portugal after suffering an injury against the Czech Republic late last week. Marko Rog is expected to draw the start.
Weather Watch
Sparse cloud cover is in store for the opening day of the elimination round. Switzerland-Poland may see a few showers, with temperatures in the low-70s. Wales-Northern Ireland and Croatia-Portugal should stay dry but cool, with the mercury settling into the low-to-mid 60s.
Props of the Day
Wales/Northern Ireland, Gareth Bale to Score and Wales Wins: Yes (+210): Bettors who put their faith in Bale were rewarded handsomely in the group stage. Expect his hot streak to continue, and for that to be the key in a Wales victory.
Croatia/Portugal: Cristiano Ronaldo to Score Two or More Goals: Yes (+650): Ronaldo not only smells his chance to become the best player in Euro history, he also knows he’ll need to be at his best if Portugal hopes to advance. Count on another multi-goal effort.
Key Stats/Trends
Portugal has won all three meetings with Croatia, with Ronaldo scoring the lone goal in their previous encounter back in 2013.
Wales is unbeaten in its last five meetings with Northern Ireland, with the teams settling for a 1-1 draw in their prior showdown in March.
Poland has a decided edge in its head-to-head history with Switzerland, having lost just one of their last 10 matches. They last met in 2014, and played to a 2-2 draw.
Sunday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Ireland (1-1-1) vs. France (2-1-0)
France have been rather disappointing so far in their home tournament, despite getting seven points from their three group games. Had all three games finished on 88 minutes, they would only have scraped through in third place with three draws.
But they have been dealt a relatively kind hand in the last 16 as they meet a Republic of Ireland side who were hugely lucky to play a severely weakened Italy side, against whoom they got the win that secured their quaification to the knockout stage of a tournament for the first time since 2002.
The Boys in Green played decently in a 1-1 draw with Sweden, but in their hardest match of the group they were comprehensively beaten 3-0 in one of the tournament’s few mismatches so far.
The game against France, who will have stored up a fair amount of energy for the latter stage of the tournament, will be harder than anything the Irish have experienced yet. They are predictably solid, but there are minor teams more suited to giving the French a fright. At 10/11 France to win to nil is a good bet. They are 1/2 to win the game with Ireland 8/1.
Prediction: France to win to nil at 10/11
Slovakia (1-1-1) vs. Germany (2-1-0)
There are two ways to look at Germany’s performance in the group stage, where they got seven points, beating Northern Ireland 1-0, Ukraine 2-0 and drawing 0-0 with Poland. First, you could say that they won the group fairly easily and still have their best football to come. On the other hand, there were times when Joachim Löw’s side reminded you of Spain in the 2014 World Cup - a rather stale side whose tactics had not developed enough and who were, at times, boring.
They are heavy 9/20 favourites to defeat Slovakia in the last 16, with their opponents, who showed their mettle in keeping England to a 0-0 draw, available at 9/1.
Slovakia are like many other teams at this Euros: they are solid at the back, possess fighters in midfield (along with the superb Marek Hamsik) but lack a cutting edge up front.
However they weren’t too bad in the group stages and actually beat Germany 3-1 in a pre-tournament friendly. That is unlikely to repeat itself, but the Slovaks can frustrate their opponents. A 1-0 Germany win looks a good bet at 9/2.
Prediction: Germany to win 1-0 at 9/2
Belgium (2-0-1) vs. Hungary (1-2-0)
Despite recovering well from their early defeat to Italy with wins over Ireland and Sweden, Belgium did not put to bed doubts over their credentials during the group stage. They go into their match with Hungary as 4/6 favourites - they would have been more like 1/2 had they played each other at the start of the tournament. Hungary are 6/1 with a draw 5/2.
Hungary have been one of the stories of the tournament so far. They won Group F despite being the outsiders in a relatively weak group. Their success can be put down to an excellent team ethic, and lots of credit must go to German manager Bernd Storck for making them such a coherent unit.
A good bet here may be Kevin de Bruyne to score first. After being shunted out wide in Belgium’s defeat to Italy in the opening game, manager Marc Wilmots has seen sense and moved the Man City star into the middle, where he is best. His record of 12 goals in 45 international games is very good, and he came into the tournament in excellent form.
Prediction: Kevin de Bruyne to score first at 6/1
Euro 2016 Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
The Group Stage of Euro 2016 is complete and the Round of 16 is in full swing. Day 2 of the Knockout Round goes Sunday with three intriguing matchups. We break them down in our betting cheat sheet.
Hosts With the Most
France (-225) was the class of Group A, and will look to keep the home fans happy as it opens elimination round play Sunday against an upstart Irish side (+850). The French side opened with convincing shutout victories over Romania and Albania before settling for a tie with the Swiss in the group stage finale. Ireland used a pivotal victory over Italy in its final Group 3 game to advance, and will be in tough against the favorites.
Vengeance for Italy?
The Italians (+320) have waited four years to avenge their one-sided loss in the last European championship final, and they’ll get their chance Monday in Paris against Spain (+110). The defending champs dominated from start to finish in the 2012 final, routing Italy 4-0 to win their second straight Euro. Both teams rolled through their first two games but dropped their group stage finales; Spain’s defeat cost it top spot in Group D.
Beware of Ice(Land)
England (-190) looks to overcome a less-than-impressive group showing as it faces tournament darling Iceland (+650) Monday at Allianz Riviera in Nice. The English side did little to impress its rabid fan base, needing two late goals to upend Wales while settling for draws with Russia and Slovakia. Still, they come in as heavy favorites against an Iceland team that has already overcome long odds just by reaching the Round of 16.
News and Notes
England star Harry Kane says his side isn’t distracted by Britons voting for their country to leave the European Union. Kane also said he’s not concerned about the possible ramifications for the Premier League.
Ireland manager Martin O’Neill says his players aren’t bent on revenge as they gear up for their tilt with France. It was a French hand ball that set up a goal that prevented the Irish from qualifying for the 2010 World Cup.
Injury Updates
Italian winger Antonio Candreva is considered doubtful for Sunday’s Round of 16 tilt with Spain. Candreva injured his right adductor muscle in the 1-0 win over Sweden and missed Wednesday’s loss to Ireland
Ireland striker Jonathan Walters is expected to miss the elimination round game with France after suffering an Achilles injury in the group stage opener against Sweden.
Weather Watch
The France-Ireland and Hungary-Belgium matches will both be played under clear skies Sunday, with temperatures in the low-70s. Germany-Slovakia will see partly cloudy conditions, but no threat of rain and temperatures hovering in the mid-60s by kickoff.
Italy-Spain will be played under mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the mid-60s. Clear conditions are also expected for England-iceland, with game-time temperatures reaching the low-70s.
Props of the Day
France/Ireland, Correct Score - France 2-0 (+400): The French are motivated to impress in front of the home crowd, and will be looking to put a disappointing group stage finale behind them. Look for a result similar to Les Bleus’ first two group stage games.
England/Iceland, Method of Victory - England in Extra Time (+575): This is a significant mismatch on paper - but as they say, you don’t play the game on paper. Iceland has been the superior of the two teams through three group-stage games - and while it should ultimately fall short, don’t be surprised to see the English side taken past 90 minutes.
Key Stats and Trends
France has seven wins and five draws in 16 meetings with Ireland; none of the last five encounters have featured more than one goal.
Spain has three wins and two draws in its last five matches with Italy, with the Azzurri’s previous win coming at the 1994 World Cup.
England and Iceland haven’t met in more than 12 years; Wayne Rooney had a pair of goals in the English side’s 6-1 rout of Iceland in their previous encounter back in June 2004.
Monday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Spain (2-0-1) vs. Italy (2-0-1)
Italy comfortably won Group E (their only defeat was when playing a second-string side against Ireland) and their best performance came in their toughest game, the 2-0 win over Belgium.
Italy struggled to break down Sweden, and playing the best teams in Europe seems to bring out all their qualities: organisation, defence, courage and counter-attacking.
Their opponents in the last 16 are Spain, who go into the match as justifiable favourites: Vicente del Bosque’s side put in two very good performances against Czech Republic and Turkey before being edged into the hard side of the draw in a 2-1 defeat to Croatia - probably the highest quality game of the tournament so far.
Spain are 23/20 to win with a draw 2/1 and an Italy win 10/3. Given how the Italians are likely to set up, as well as Spain’s record of 1-0s in the knockout stages of tournaments, means the goal expectancy is very low, so picking a team to win in normal time looks tough.
However at 8/5 Italy to qualify looks the bet. They are good enough defensively to frustrate a Spain side whose best days are behind them, and they will be happy with a draw in normal time.
Prediction: Italy to qualify at 8/5
Iceland (1-2-0) vs. England (1-2-0)
England’s 0-0 draw with Slovakia, where Roy Hodgson made several changes to the team, dropped the Three Lions into by far the tougher side of the draw.
Luckily for them, however, their first challenge in the knockout stages does not look too difficult as they take on Iceland in Nice.
Iceland managed to get five points from their group - the same number as England - but in all three games they were on the back foot, while England were utterly dominant against Russia, Wales and Slovakia.
Their has been some justified criticism of England: certainly, compared with Germany, France and Spain, their build-up play has been ponderous and predictable, while there are still question marks over their defence, but it is stil the case that they have been highly unlucky just to score three goals so far in the tournament.
They are 1/2 to win the game, but a better bet may be a win to nil at 21/20. If England score early it is tough to see a way back for 8/1 Iceland. For once, England may convince in a match at a major tournament.
Prediction: England to win to nil at 21/20
Euro 2016 Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
The Group Stage of Euro 2016 is complete and the Round of 16 is in full swing. Day 2 of the Knockout Round goes Sunday with three intriguing matchups. We break them down in our betting cheat sheet.
Hosts With the Most
France (-225) was the class of Group A, and will look to keep the home fans happy as it opens elimination round play Sunday against an upstart Irish side (+850). The French side opened with convincing shutout victories over Romania and Albania before settling for a tie with the Swiss in the group stage finale. Ireland used a pivotal victory over Italy in its final Group 3 game to advance, and will be in tough against the favorites.
Vengeance for Italy?
The Italians (+320) have waited four years to avenge their one-sided loss in the last European championship final, and they’ll get their chance Monday in Paris against Spain (+110). The defending champs dominated from start to finish in the 2012 final, routing Italy 4-0 to win their second straight Euro. Both teams rolled through their first two games but dropped their group stage finales; Spain’s defeat cost it top spot in Group D.
Beware of Ice(Land)
England (-190) looks to overcome a less-than-impressive group showing as it faces tournament darling Iceland (+650) Monday at Allianz Riviera in Nice. The English side did little to impress its rabid fan base, needing two late goals to upend Wales while settling for draws with Russia and Slovakia. Still, they come in as heavy favorites against an Iceland team that has already overcome long odds just by reaching the Round of 16.
News and Notes
England star Harry Kane says his side isn’t distracted by Britons voting for their country to leave the European Union. Kane also said he’s not concerned about the possible ramifications for the Premier League.
Ireland manager Martin O’Neill says his players aren’t bent on revenge as they gear up for their tilt with France. It was a French hand ball that set up a goal that prevented the Irish from qualifying for the 2010 World Cup.
Injury Updates
Italian winger Antonio Candreva is considered doubtful for Sunday’s Round of 16 tilt with Spain. Candreva injured his right adductor muscle in the 1-0 win over Sweden and missed Wednesday’s loss to Ireland
Ireland striker Jonathan Walters is expected to miss the elimination round game with France after suffering an Achilles injury in the group stage opener against Sweden.
Weather Watch
The France-Ireland and Hungary-Belgium matches will both be played under clear skies Sunday, with temperatures in the low-70s. Germany-Slovakia will see partly cloudy conditions, but no threat of rain and temperatures hovering in the mid-60s by kickoff.
Italy-Spain will be played under mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the mid-60s. Clear conditions are also expected for England-iceland, with game-time temperatures reaching the low-70s.
Props of the Day
France/Ireland, Correct Score - France 2-0 (+400): The French are motivated to impress in front of the home crowd, and will be looking to put a disappointing group stage finale behind them. Look for a result similar to Les Bleus’ first two group stage games.
England/Iceland, Method of Victory - England in Extra Time (+575): This is a significant mismatch on paper - but as they say, you don’t play the game on paper. Iceland has been the superior of the two teams through three group-stage games - and while it should ultimately fall short, don’t be surprised to see the English side taken past 90 minutes.
Key Stats and Trends
France has seven wins and five draws in 16 meetings with Ireland; none of the last five encounters have featured more than one goal.
Spain has three wins and two draws in its last five matches with Italy, with the Azzurri’s previous win coming at the 1994 World Cup.
England and Iceland haven’t met in more than 12 years; Wayne Rooney had a pair of goals in the English side’s 6-1 rout of Iceland in their previous encounter back in June 2004.
Thursday's Euro 2016 Quarterfinals Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
Euro 2016 Quarterfinal action gets underway Thursday in France with a pair of matchups highlighted by a pair of Real Madrid teammates looking to make their mark on international football.
Robert vs. Ronaldo
A pair of struggling superstars will look for redemption as Poland (+280) squares off against Portugal (+125) in Euro 2016 quarterfinal action Thursday in Marseille. Polish star Robert Lewandowski scored 13 goals in the qualification round, but has yet to convert in the European championships while converting just two attempts on net. Cristiano Ronaldo had a pair of goals against Hungary, but hasn’t done much else to warrant his place as one of the top footballers in the world.
A Wale(s) of a Task
A plucky Welsh side (+480) finds itself fighting long odds yet again as it prepares to face heavily favored Belgium (-150) in Friday’s Euro quarterfinal match at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Lille. Wales was fortunate to escape with a 1-0 win over Northern Ireland in the Round of 16, advancing on a Gareth McAuley own goal. They’ll be in tough against a Belgian side that came into the event ranked second in the world, slogged through the group stage, then rounded into form in a 4-0 rout of Hungary in elimination play.
News and Notes
Wales star Gareth Bale says his team has lifted its game to “another level” heading into quarterfinal play with the Belgians. Bale scored three goals in group play, tied with Spain’s Alvaro Morata for the most in the tournament.
Belgium will be without top defender Thomas Vermaelen for its quarterfinal matchup with Wales. He picked up a second yellow card in his team’s Round of 16 win over Hungary and will serve a one-game suspension.
Injury Updates
Poland goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny remains sidelined with a thigh injury suffered in the first half of a 1-0 win over Northern Ireland in group play. Lukasz Fabianski will once again take over in his place.
Wales captain Ashley Williams has been ruled fit to play against Belgium after running into teammate Jonathan Williams late in the win over Northern Ireland. A scan revealed no damage to Ashley Williams' shoulder.
Weather Watch
Poland-Portugal will be played under partly cloudy skies in Marseille, with temperatures sitting in the mid-70s at kickoff.
Wales-Belgium will see overcast conditions with a strong chance of rain, though forecasts are expecting that to be minimal. Temperatures will be in the low-to-mid 60s by game time.
Props of the Day
Poland/Portugal, Cristiano Ronaldo to Score and Portugal to Win: Yes (+325): He's one of the greatest players alive, and he craves the big stage. Portugal is expected to win this one, and if it does, it will need Ronaldo to be elite. Count on him playing his best game of the tournament - and pushing Portugal forward as a result.
Wales/Belgium, Correct Score: 0:2 (+575): Bale has been one of the top players in the tournament, but he can't do it alone. And the Belgians look to be in peak form following their evisceration of the upstart Hungarians. Look for Belgium to press early, get on the board and take advantage of Wales' aggression to expand the lead late.
Key Stats and Trends
Poland and Portugal are fairly evenly matched over their 10 all-time encounters; the Portuguese hold a 4-3 edge in wins with three draws. They last faced off in 2012 and played to a scoreless tie.
Portugal is unbeaten in its last 11 competitive matches under Fernando Santos, with eight wins and three draws. Amazingly, all eight of those victories have come by a single goal.
Wales has the upper hand in its most recent encounter with Belgium, having earned a win and a draw in the Euro 2016 qualifying stage. Belgium has a 5-4-3 edge in 12 all-time meetings.
Look for a low-scoring affair, as the last three encounters between Wales and Belgium have seen just three total goals scored.
Euro Quarterfinals Preview
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Poland vs. Portugal
Portugal have somehow reached the quarter-finals of this competition without winning a game in normal time, having drawn all four games. They got past Croatia thanks to a very late extra-time winner by Ricardo Quaresma, but Fernando Santos’s team were on the back foot throughout.
They face Poland in the first quarter-final, and while Portugal are probably right to be favourites, they look a poor price at 5/4 to beat a team who have conceded just once at the tournament so far. They tired a bit against Switzerland, but in the first half they were utterly dominant and should have been out of sight before Xherdan Shaqiri’s stunning equaliser.
Poland are 3/1 while Portugal are 5/4. Few goals are expected with a draw as short as 2/1, but it is Poland who look the better bet. A combined XI between the two sides would hardly have more Portuguese than Poles, and the tournament so far suggests there is very little between the sides.
The prices are based mainly on reputation, and while Portugal’s tournament experience should count for something, they do not deserve 5/4 favouritism. Poland can edge this.
Prediction: Poland to win at 3/1
Wales vs. Belgium
Who would have thought Wales would be just three wins away from winning a major tournament? They are the last British team left at Euro 2016, and they face Belgium in the second quarter-final.
The interesting thing about this game is that the two sides have faced each other four times, in both the last round of qualifiers. The results will give Wales enormous hope: despite Belgium’s superior quality - Gareth Bale is the only Welshman who would be guaranteed a spot in the Belgium team - they have won one game each with the other two ending all square. There have only been five goals in the four games, and in the 1-0 win and the 0-0 draw Wales twice kept out Belgium in qualifying for this tournament.
They know how to stop Belgium, whose 4-0 win over Hungary was slightly skewed by three of the goals coming very late in the game.
Wales are 5/1 to win with Belgium 8/11 and a draw 13/5. The draw looks the best bet, but given the familiarity between the two teams betting on no goalscorer at 7/1 may be the better option. Expect a cagey game.
Prediction: No goalscorer at 7/1
Euro Quarterfinals Preview
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Germany vs. Italy
If Germany had been 5/4 to beat Italy in the first game of this tournament it would be seen as a smashing bet, but no big team have outperformed expectations at this tournament quite like Italy, who were written off as a dud generation just three weeks ago.
This is largely down to manager Antonio Conte, who gets the absolute maximum out of his players, and the best defence in the tournament.
They are 3/1 to win this match, but their aim here, as it was in their 2-0 wins over Spain and Belgium, will be to frustrate Germany, who are a more complete side than Italy have yet faced.
The tournament has been extremely low-scoring - none of Italy’s games have yielded more than two goals - and so the draw is correspondingly short at 2/1.
There is a saying that ‘Germany win, unless they play Italy’, and certainly the Italians have historically had the better of the Germans, having knocked them out in both 2012 and 2006.
Too little was made before the tournament of quite how good Italy’s defence is. In knockout football, having a good defence is often better than having a good attack, and Italy can produce yet another big performance to knock Germany out. They may struggle to do it in normal time though, so 6/4 in the ‘To Qualify’ market appeals most.
Prediction: Italy to qualify at 6/4
France vs. Iceland
By far the biggest mismatch in the quarter-finals sees the hosts France take on ultra-minnows Iceland, who provided one of international football’s greatest shocks by dumping out England on Monday.
Along with 330,000 from Iceland, the whole of France celebrated the result in Nice as, however much Iceland deserved their victory, they provide an easier challenge than England.
France are 2/5 to win with Iceland available at 8/1. A draw is 4/1. France are yet to play a difficult game at this tournament, but they produced their best performance in their win over Ireland, a score of 2-1 flattering Martin O’Neill’s side.
Antoine Griezmann scored both of France’s goals and there seems little reason why he is longer in the first goalscorer markets than Olivier Giroud.
Griezmann is less of a natural striker than Giroud at club level, but for France they virtually play as a pair, with Giroud holding the ball up for the Atletico man. A particularly good example of this was the build-up to their equaliser against Ireland.
France’s attacking play is much more imaginative and intricate than England’s, and they should have too much for a heroic Iceland team. Griezmann’s pace can unlock a steady, but slow defence. At 4/1 he is a good bet to score first.
Prediction: Antoine Griezmann to score first at 4/1
Euro 2016 Quarterfinals Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
The final two quarterfinals of Euro 2016 couldn't be more different. One match features two perennial world powers will the other features the host nation taking on the upstarts from Iceland.
Defensive Dynamos
Goals could be hard to come by at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Bordeaux on Saturday as Germany (+115) locks horns with Italy (+290) in a Euro 2016 quarterfinal match. The Germans have been the class of the tournament to date, having yet to allow a goal through its first four contests. The Italians have been impressive themselves from a defensive standpoint, surrendering just one goal in four games. Both teams are coming off convincing victories in the Round of 16; the Germans blanked Slovakia 3-0 while Italy upended defending-champion Spain 2-0.
Fan Favorite Face-Off
Soccer minnow Iceland (+700) has stunned opponents and dazzled fans en route to the Euro 2016 quarterfinals - but it will only be the second most-popular team on the field Sunday as it squares off against host France (-225) in Paris. Iceland handed England one of the most embarrassing losses in that nation’s storied history, rallying for a 2-1 victory in the Round of 16. But things won’t get any easier Sunday as it will face a French side that has three wins and a draw through four tournament games. France is coming off an impressive 2-1 win over Ireland in the Round of 16.
News and Notes
France coach Didier Deschamps doesn’t want his players dealing with distractions ahead of their quarterfinal clash with Iceland. The French side will practice behind closed doors Thursday and Friday after holding an open session Wednesday.
Germany will look to take advantage of some valuable intel heading into its Round of 8 encounter with Italy. Midfielder Sami Khedira plays for Juventus of the top Italian league, and is familiar with the national team’s play style and habits.
Injury Updates
Italy midfielder Daniele De Rossi is doubtful for Saturday’s game after he missed a second day of training Wednesday. That’s bad news for the Italians, who have already lost primary replacement Thiago Motta to a yellow card suspension.
The Italians are also facing the likely absence of skilled winger Antonio Candreva. The Lazio star suffered a groin injury in the group stage against Sweden and has missed the past two games.
Weather Watch
Germany and Italy will play under clear skies in Bordeaux, with temperatures expected to be in the mid-to-high 60s by kickoff.
The forecast for France-Ireland isn’t as optimistic; there’s a 47 percent chance of rain at Stade de France, for Sunday, with temperatures in the mid-to-high 60s.
Props of the Day
Germany/Italy, Total Goals O/U: Under 3.5 (-650): You won’t make a lot of folding money with this one, but you also won’t find many safer bets than this O/U. The teams have combined to allow just one goal, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see the victor escape with a 1-0 triumph.
France/Iceland, Olivier Giroud to Score and France to Win: Yes (+150): Giroud has been one of the top players in the tournament, and with a berth in the semifinals on the line in Paris, bettors should expect him to be at his best. Iceland’s Cinderella run should come to an end this weekend.
Key Trends and Stats
Italy has had Germany’s number in recent international spectacles, defeating them in the Euro 2012 semifinals and upending them in the semis of the 2006 World Cup.
The Germans have reached the semifinals in each of their last five major international tournaments dating back to 2006.
France has dominated the head-to-head series, racking up eight victories and three draws in 11 all-time meetings.
The hosts haven’t dropped a major tournament match on home soil since 1960, winning 14 games and drawing twice over that span.
Euro 2016 Semifinals Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
The two semifinals of Euro 2016 couldn't be more different. One match features two perennial world powers (Germany and France) while the other features an upstart Wales squad against Portugal who is lucky to be in this position.
Portugal Working Overtime
Nothing has come easy for Portugal (+115), which has failed to win a game in regular time so far in the European Championships. But extra-time and penalty shootout triumphs has the Portuguese side in the semifinals for the fourth time in six tournament appearances, and it can advance to the final Wednesday with a win over upstart Wales (+290) at Stade des Lumieres in Lyon. The Welsh side is in the final four at a Euro for the first time in history, advancing to the semis with a 3-1 triumph over world power Belgium.
Lucky Seven for Germany?
A stubborn German side (+180) seeks its seven European Championship finals appearance as it tangles with host France (+175) in semifinal action Thursday at Stade Velodrome in Marseille. Germany eked past Italy in a lengthy penalty showdown in the quarterfinals, after the teams played to a 1-1 draw through 120 minutes. The French come in with big-time momentum after rolling past Iceland 5-2 in the quarterfinals. Germany has won the Euro title three times, while France is looking for its third Euro championship all-time.
News and Notes
Wales will be missing a pair of key players due to second yellow cards picked up in the quarterfinal victory over Belgium. Star midfielder Aaron Ramsey and veteran defender Ben Davies will both sit out Wednesday’s game, but will be eligible to return for the final.
At least one player’s family has changed plans ahead of the Belgium-Wales clash. Welsh defender Chris Gunter’s parents will be at his semifinal match in Lyon rather than attending his brother’s wedding in Mexico.
Injury Updates
Portugal fullback Raphael Guerrero is doubtful for Wednesday’s semifinal matchup as he deals with an undisclosed muscle injury. Midfielder Andre Gomes also has a muscle ailment, and is listed as doubtful.
Germany will be short-handed for its Thursday tilt with France. Sami Khedira is out after being substituted in the first half against Italy, while Bastian Schweinsteiger and Jerome Boateng are also banged up.
Weather Watch
Clear skies are expected for Wednesday’s Portugal-Wales clash, with a zero percent chance of rain and temperatures in the low-70s.
Germany-France will see scattered clouds at kickoff, but no rain expected and temperatures sitting in the high-70s for game time.
Props of the Day
Wales/Portugal, Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale to Both Score: Yes (+500): Two of the top goal-scorers will square off in Lyon, with both players a threat to convert at any time. Look for this one to be a wide-open affair, which plays to both strikers’ strengths.
Germany/France, Half Time/Full Time: France/France (+335): With the home side still buzzing over its five-goal outburst against Iceland and the Germans possibly short four key players, this one has tilted heavily in France’s favour. Expect a dominant showing by the hosts.
Key Trends and Stats
Wales is the first Euro debut team to reach the semifinals since 1992, when Sweden fell to Germany.
Portugal and Wales last meet in a 2000 friendly, with the Portuguese side cruising to a 3-0 victory.
Germany and France have split four all-time World Cup meetings, with France winning the two most recent encounters; they have never met at the European Championships.
France has won its last two major tournaments as the host country, prevailing at the 1998 World Cup and the 1984 European Championships.
Euro Semifinals Preview
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Portugal vs. Wales
Before the tournament started the most likely semi-final on this side of the draw was Spain vs England. But both crashed out in the last 16, and instead it is the two countries’ smaller neighbours, Portugal and Wales, who face off in the third last match of Euro 2016. It is Wales’s first ever semi-final, but for Portugal it is their fifth semi-final since the turn of the century.
The media has billed this as ‘Ronaldo vs Bale’ - a clash between the two most talented players at this tournament. But there is much more to both teams than their Real Madrid star. Wales, however, will be weakened by the loss of Aaron Ramsey through suspension. He is nowhere near as important as Bale, who is irreplaceable, but his passing was the origin of much of Wales’s good play as they beat the Belgians 3-1. It was a superb performance, doing what their neighbours England never do: pulling out a huge performance when it matters.
Portugal have drawn all five of their matches so far, and while they have been decent in all of them, they are nothing to fear for Wales, and punters should not be surprised to see Fernando Santos’s team as big as 23/20. Wales are 16/5 and a draw is 21/10.
My pick here, however, is both teams to score at 6/5. Wales have been more adventurous in France than they were in qualifying, and BTTS has copped in four of their five games so far. Portugal will dominate possession and that will inevitably give them chances, whilst Wales are good from set-pieces and, of course, have Gareth Bale.
Prediction: Both teams to score at 6/5
Germany vs. France
The comparative weakness of the other semi-final means that this titanic clash between Germany and France is seen by many as the real tournament decider. It looks an absolutely fascinating game, with bookies having the two teams absolutely neck and neck.
When the prices on this first came out, both teams were 15/8 to win the match, but France have been ever so slightly nudged into favouritism. They are 9/5 with Germany 2/1. Two years ago Germany were in a similar situation: rated absolutely identically to the hosts in a semi-final. What happened then? They beat Brazil 7-1.
There are good arguments to be made for both sides. France had a much more comfortable passage through the quarter-finals, beating a knackered Iceland team 5-2. They were 4-0 up at half-time and could coast through the second half. Germany, meanwhile, went through a gruelling draw with Italy. They were at it for 120 minutes plus a penalty shootout so, despite playing a day later, France might be fresher than Germany. There is also the not unimportant matter of home advantage.
However the case for Germany just looks a little bit stronger. They are the best team in Europe at the moment, and have an ability to control the pace of games that France do not quite have. They are mentally rock solid: no team is less likely to be thrown off course by playing against a hostile crowd. They are more experienced in big matches than France, and have fewer questions to answer at both ends of the pitch.
Prediction: Germany to win at 2/1
Portugal, France clash
By Sportsbook.ag
UEFA European Championship Final
Sportsbook.ag Line: Portugal +350, France +100, Tie +212
Total: 2.5 (Over +160, Under -195)
Portugal and France square off at the Euro 2016 Final.
Portugal was extremely fortunate to find itself in the knockout stage after going winless in the group stage, but the Iberian nation advanced into the final thanks to an impressive 2-0 win over Wales in the semi-finals.
Rui Patricio will start in net for the Portuguese, with a defense featuring Raphael Guerreiro, Cedric Soares, and Jose Fonte. Center back Pepe could miss out through a thigh injury, and if this is indeed the case, either Bruno Alves or Ricardo Carvalho will slot in.
In midfield, William Carvalho should start after missing out in the semi-finals through yellow card suspension, with Joao Mario, Renato Sanches, and Adrien Silva also in the lineup.
In attack, feared duo Nani and Cristiano Ronaldo will hope to score and give their nation its first title in a major tournament.
France will counter with goalkeeper Hugo Lloris and a defense of Patrice Evra, Laurent Koscielny, and Bacary Sagna, with Samuel Umtiti likely to get the nod at center back over Adil Rami after a superb performance in the semi-finals against Germany.
Blaise Matuidi, Paul Pogba, and Moussa Sissoko will start in midfield, with the dangerous Antoine Griezmann and Dimitri Payet in behind Olivier Giroud in attack.
Euro 2016 Final Propositions
1st Half Lines
Portugal +375
France +160
Draw -109
Over 1.5 (+285)
Under 1.5 (-370)
2nd Half Lines
Portugal +350
France +125
Draw +125
Over 1.5 (+175)
Under 1.5 (-210)
To Lift The Trophy
Portugal +190
France -225
Draw No Bet (Regular Time)
Portugal +210
France -265
Goal Line (Regular Time)
Portugal +0.5 (-130)
France - 0.5 (Even)
Alternative Goal Line A (Regular Time)
Portugal +1.5 (-370)
France 1.5 (+285)
Alternative Total A (Regular Time)
Over 1.5 (-220)
Under 1.5 (+177)
Alternative Goal Line B (Regular Time)
Portugal 0.5 (+350)
France -+0.5 (-475)
Alternative Total B (Regular Time)
Over 3.5 (+425)
Under 3.5 (-600)
Total Portugal Goals
Over 0.5 (-145)
Under 0.5 (+115)
Total France Goals
Over 1.5 (+140)
Under 1.5 (-170)
Both Teams to Score (Regular Time)
Yes +130
No -160
Portugal to keep a clean sheet (Shutout)
Yes +260
No -340
France to keep a clean sheet (Shutout)
Yes +115
No -145
Correct Score (Regular Time)
Any Other Score +10000
France win 1-0 +475
France win 2-0 +600
France win 2-1 +750
France win 3-0 +1400
France win 3-1 +1700
France win 3-2 +4500
France win 4-0 +4000
France win 4-1 +5000
France win 4-2 +13000
France win 4-3 +20000
France win 5-0 +15000
France win 5-1 +19000
France win 5-2 +20000
France win 5-3 +20000
France win 5-4 +20000
Portugal win 1-0 +800
Portugal win 2-0 +1900
Portugal win 2-1 +1350
Portugal win 3-0 +7000
Portugal win 3-1 +5000
Portugal win 3-2 +7500
Portugal win 4-0 +20000
Portugal win 4-1 +20000
Portugal win 4-2 +20000
Portugal win 4-3 +20000
Portugal win 5-0 +20000
Portugal win 5-1 +20000
Portugal win 5-2 +20000
Portugal win 5-3 +20000
Portugal win 5-4 +20000
Tie 0-0 +475
Tie 1-1 +425
Tie 2-2 +2000
Tie 3-3 +17000
Tie 4-4 +20000
Tie 5-5 +20000
Half Time/Full Time (Regular Time)
France / France +170
France / Portugal +5000
France / Tie +1600
Portugal / France +3500
Portugal / Portugal +550
Portugal / Tie +1600
Tie / France +300
Tie / Portugal +700
Tie / Tie +300
Method of Victory
France in Extra time +700
France in Regular Time Even
France on Penalties +600
Portugal in Extra time +1350
Portugal in Regular Time +350
Portugal on Penalties +800
1st Team to Score (Regular Time)
France -145
No Goal +475
Total Goals (Regular Time)
1 goal +300
2 goals +205
3 goals +325
4 goals +675
5 goals +1700
6 or goals +2800
No goals +475
Game Result & Total Parlay
France to win & Over 2.5 Goals +250
France to win & Under 2.5 Goals +250
Portugal to win & Over 2.5 Goals +800
Portugal to win & Under 2.5 Goals +550
Tie & Over 2.5 Goals +1900
Tie & Under 2.5 Goals +217
Euro 2016 Championship Final Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com
The Euro 2016 championship is all set. France and Portugal took vastly different routes to get to this point, but it will be a level playing field Sunday in Saint-Denis for this clash of European superpowers.
Home Sweet Home
France (Even) looks for yet another major soccer title on its home turf as it tangles with Portugal n Sunday’s European Championships final in Paris. The French side has been wildly successful as the host of a major tournament, prevailing in the 1984 Euro title game and the 1998 World Cup. France also prevailed in the 2000 European Championships as the co-host. The French had little trouble reaching the title game, cruising to a 2-0 victory over short-handed Germany in Tuesday’s semifinal
Ending the Title Drought
The Portuguese (+330) haven’t had nearly as much success on the world stage as their French opponents, coming into Sunday’s game still looking for its first major championship. The sting of a Euro 2004 final loss to Greece still lingers, but Portugal is in great shape to end 12 years of heartache after putting forth its best effort of the tournament in a 2-0 triumph over Wales in the semifinals. Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani had goals as the Portuguese won in regulation for the first time in the tournament.
How They Got Here
France breezed through an underwhelming Group A, earning two victories and a draw to land atop the group. A 2-1 victory over Ireland in the first knockout round had some fans nervous, but that trepidation disappeared with an emphatic 5-2 win over Iceland in the quarterfinals.
Portugal showed poor form in Group F play, settling for three draws and qualifying as one of the four bottom teams. The Portuguese needed 117 minutes to upend Croatia 1-0 in the Round of 16, then used penalty kicks to subdue Poland after the teams played to a 1-1 draw.
News and Notes
English referee Mark Clattenburg has been tabbed to officiate Sunday’s final. Clattenburg has an impressive resume, highlighted by his appointment to the Champions League final between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid.
French star Antoine Greizmann needs just one goal to set a national record for most goals in Euro history, entering Sunday tied with Thierry Henry at six goals. Greizmann is a -50,000 bet to finish as the tourney scoring leader.
Injury Update
The Portuguese side will receive an enormous boost with the return of elite defender Pepe, who was a full participant in Saturday’s training session. Pepe was forced out of the semifinal win over Wales with a lingering thigh injury.
Weather Watch
State de France is expected to see some cloud cover but little chance of rain, with temperatures in the mid-70s at kickoff.
Props of the Day
Antoine Greizmann to score and France to win: Yes (+250): Greizmann has been the class of the tournament, and would love nothing more than to convert one more time in front of a raucous home crowd. With France also comfortably favored, this is one of the safest doubles out there.
Winning margin: France by 1 goal (+250): The French side should prevail in this one, but it won’t be easy. Portugal has rediscovered its world class form and will be completely healthy. Look for France to pull this one out, but it should be a close one no matter the outcome.
Key Stats and Trends
The French have won eight straight meetings with their Portuguese foes, and are 12-2-1 in 15 all-time meetings at home.
France defeated Portugal in both the 1984 and 2000 Euro semifinals en route to championship victories. Both games were decided in extra time.
Ronaldo’s next Euro goal will move him past Michel Platini and into sole possession of top spot on the tournament’s all-time scoring list.