Farmers Insurance Open Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com
The PGA Tour remains in California with the Farmers Insurance Open from historic Torrey Pines in La Jolla. Last week, Hudson Swafford held off a slew of others to win the CareerBuilder Challenge by one shot over Adam Hadwin. This week, 156 golfers will be eyeing the $1,170,000 top prize in what is one of the biggest and most star studded fields of the young PGA Tour season.
Torrey Pines North and South courses are the hosts for the 50th consecutive year and it really does not get much better than that. Torrey Pines is one of the few municipal courses on the schedule and still plays as one of the tougher stops on tour, namely the South course which is the sole course used on the weekend. The South ranked as the fourth hardest course on tour in 2014, sixth hardest in 2015 and the overall hardest last year although the weather played a big factor in that. It has now been six straight years that the South has ranked 11th or lower in difficulty.
Scoring low on the North course is imperative because the South will not give in. The South Course is one of the longest courses on Tour at 7,698 yards but that does not mean big hitters will dominate. Expereience is a huge factor as a mix of small greens with Poa annua can cause havoc for many. Important statistical analysis factors include scrambling, strokes gained: putting and ball striking. While the South course is long, driving distance is not an overly huge factor.
The Farmers Insurance Open is typically the event that opens the PGA Tour season with the best quality of players and that is the case again this year. 11 of the OWGR Top 25 players are in the field including four from the Top Ten. Those teeing it up are Jason Day (1), Dustin Johnson (3), Hideki Matsuyama (6), Patrick Reed (9) Justin Rose (13), Rickie Fowler (14), Paul Casey (16) Brooks Koepka (19), Jimmy Walker (21), Phil Mickelson (22) and Emiliano Grillo (25).
The defending champion is Brandt Snedeker who closed with a Sunday 69 which was the only subpar round of the day. Snedeker was 8.9 strokes better than the final round average of 77.9 and his one shot win over K.J. Choi was his eighth win on tour. The weather was the big issue as heavy winds came in over the weekend to wreak havoc over Torrey Pines which resulted in a Sunday suspension and Monday finish. Snedeker finished early enough Sunday where he did not have to even swing a club on Monday.
Dustin Johnson and Jason Day are co-favorites at +810 followed by Hideki Matsuyama at +1,200. Five players come in at +2,500 – Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Jimmy Walker, Brooks Koepka and Brandt Snedeker. Despite not playing a tournament on the PGA Tour since 2015, Tiger Woods is next at +2,870. Gary Woodland and Phil Mickelson, both at +3,500, round out the players priced less than +4,000. While the big names will be popular this week, there is excellent value even further down the list.
Farmers Insurance Open Preview
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
Tiger Woods’ PGA TOUR return begins with the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines on Thursday. Fans have been waiting for this for quite some time, and it surely won’t disappoint. Woods was solid in the Hero World Challenge in December, and he should be even better this weekend. He has won this event seven times in this career, and he has also had plenty of time to get ready for this thing. The field for this tournament is also rather impressive. Some of the top golfers in the world will be teeing off, as Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose and Phil Mickelson will all be out there for this one. Mickelson is yet another guy that has played well in this event, as he has won this tournament three times in his career. Brandt Snedeker is also worth mentioning, as he is the defending champion heading into Thursday. With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at some of the best values this weekend:
Jason Day (17-to-2) - Day’s only tournament appearance this season was at the SBS Tournament of Champions. He shot a 13-under in that one, and ended up tying for 12th place in the event. That is not bad considering the fact that he was a bit rusty heading into that one. Now Day has some experience under his belt, and he’ll be looking to come away with his first victory of the year on Sunday. He has a great opportunity to do just that, as he has been great at the Farmers Insurance Open in recent years. Day won this thing back in 2015 and he was also a runner-up in 2014. Look for him to improve upon his resume at this event this weekend, and don’t be afraid to back him at 17-to-1. A few units would pay off big and he will almost definitely be at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Tiger Woods (25-to-1) - It’s certainly tough to put a ton of faith in Tiger this weekend, but it’s just too difficult to ignore his track record at Torrey Pines. Woods has won this event more than anybody, and he has done so by a wide margin. When he won in 2013, it was his seventh career victory in the Farmers Insurance Open. Phil Mickelson is second to Tiger in victories here with three. It’s also worth noting that Tiger showed some serious signs of returning to form at the Hero World Challenge. He definitely had some miserable moments, but he has had a lot of time to round his game into form and is worth putting a unit on in this one.
Brandt Snedeker (25-to-1) - Snedeker will be the defending champion when the golfers step foot on Torrey Pines on Thursday, and he is always a threat to win when he’s here. Snedeker has won this tournament twice now, as he also won back in 2012. He was also a runner-up when Ben Crane won back in 2010. Snedeker’s ability to putt is what really shines on this course. He is able to make up strokes because of his ability to dominate on the greens, and that was a huge reason he was able to win last year’s tournament. The weather was disgusting, but Snedeker still managed to come away with the win. He’s worth taking a shot on at 25-to-1 this weekend, as he’ll surely give himself a chance to win come Sunday.
Scott Stallings (90-to-1) - When looking for this week’s dark horse, Stallings is somebody that stands out as a tremendous value. Stallings is getting 90-to-1 odds, so he would pay out huge if he were to come away with a victory on Sunday. That is not out of the realm of possibility at all, as Stallings has actually had a ton of success at this tournament in his career. Stallings won this tournament back in 2014, and he was also a runner-up in 2015. It’s not often that somebody with that type of track record gets those odds, so he is worth at least a half-unit this weekend.