FedEx St. Jude Classic - Golfers to Bet
By: StatFox.com
With the U.S. Open rapidly approaching, the PGA TOUR heads to Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Classic on Thursday. While a lot of the top golfers on the TOUR will not be playing in this one, there is still plenty of talent in this year’s field. Some of the names to keep an eye on in this one include Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Brooks Koepka, and Phil Mickelson. Both Koepka and Mickelson were runners-up last year, and Daniel Berger was actually the guy that came away with the win. He’ll be back out there this year, and so will Fabian Gomez. Gomez won this tournament in 2015, and each of the past two winners has won with a score of 13-under. It’s worth mentioning coming into this one that Tiger Woods is still out. Woods was arrested a little over a week ago, and he is still recovering from an injured back. His intentions are to play again, but it’s not a certainty that he’ll be able to do that anytime soon. With that out of the way, let’s now look at some of the best values to win this event this weekend:
Adam Scott - Scott is the highest ranked golfer in the OWGR in this entire field, and that should give him some confidence heading into this tournament. Scott knows that this is as good a chance for him to earn a victory as any that he’ll have this season, and it’s not like he can’t use the win either. Scott has not yet won a tournament this season, and he badly wants to do that heading into the U.S. Open. Look for him to come out and play some aggressive golf, but also don’t be surprised if he withdraws to rest if he plays a poor round on Thursday. That’s the risk you’ll need to take in a tournament this close to a major, but his odds are still favorable enough to play for a little.
Daniel Berger - Daniel Berger has won just one tournament in his PGA TOUR career, but that also happened to be at this event last year. Berger edged out Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, and Steve Stricker to win that tournament, and he’ll now look to win back-to-back St. Jude Classics on Sunday. He definitely has a great chance to do it, as he plays this course as well as anybody. This also happens to be a rather watered down field, so Berger can certainly take advantage of that. Don’t be afraid to back him at his extremely favorable odds.
Phil Mickelson - Phil Mickelson recently announced that he will not be playing in the U.S. Open. He is going to be attending his daughter’s high school graduation that weekend, and that makes him a bit more dangerous in this tournament here. Mickelson is one of the few top golfers that will be completely focused on winning this event. A lot of the others are just trying to tune their games for the major next week. With that being the case, look out for Lefty in this one. Phil has never won this tournament, but he was a runner-up in both 2013 and 2016. He has had success on this course, but a victory is something he’ll want as bad as anyone.
Graeme McDowell - Graeme McDowell was once one of the most consistent top performers in the game, but his play has faded in recent years. He has, however, been performing quite well in recent weeks. McDowell has finished inside the top-30 in seven of the past nine tournaments he’s played in. Three of those finishes were top-20 ones, and it just would not be surprising to see him find a way to win once again. This tournament is definitely wide open for the guys in this field, so backing a guy with his pedigree is worth it with his odds.
FedEx St. Jude Classic Preview
By Matt Fargo
Covers.com
The final tuneup before the U.S. Open takes place this week as the PGA Tour heads to Memphis and the TPC at Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Classic. This stop has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour schedule for years and although it has gone through some tough times in trying to gain sponsors, FedEx jumped in recently and is here through 2017 and likely beyond. This is where the first ever 59 was carded as Al Geiberger achieved the feat back in 1959 at the then named Danny Thomas Memphis Classic.
TPC at Southwind was opened in March of 1988 and has played host to the St. Jude Classic since 1989. The course has 10 water hazards making accuracy in the fairway and greens in regulation extremely important. Nine years ago, Southwind played the toughest of all non-majors on the schedule and that has carried forward. Two of the last three years, it has been the hardest Par 70 of non-majors. Apart from the water, tiny greens are strewn throughout adding to the difficulty.
Three of the important statistical categories to look at this week are Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach-The-Green and Par Four Scoring. The middle one is arguably the most important because hitting the small greens is a challenge. No player that has won has ever finished outside the top 20 in that category and there are three players that are ranked in the top 50 in that category this year that finished in the top 10 here last year, Daniel Berger (1), Boo Weekley (4) and D.A. Points (6).
Additionally, there are four players in the field that are currently ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Approach-The-Green, Francesco Molinari (2), Rickie Fowler (5), Kyle Stanley (7) and Ian Poulter (9). As far as Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee, Kyle Stanley (7) is the only player in the field that is ranked in the top 10 in this category. Finally, Francesco Molinari (T5), Stewart Cink (T9), Russell Henley (T9), Jamie Lovemark (T9) and Kyle Stanley (T9) are the players in the field ranked in the top 10 in Par Four Scoring.
Because of the U.S. Open being played next week, a lot of players are taking the week off to practice instead and it is a watered-down field this week. The field includes just six players ranked in the top 25 of the Official World Golf Rankings, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Brooks Koepka, Francesco Molinari, Charl Schwartzel, and Phil Mickelson. Any players outside the top 60 in the OWGR can earn a spot in the U.S. Open next week if they can move inside that ranking.
With the field being light, it makes for a very wide open tournament as proven by some of the recent past champions. Rickie Fowler is the favorite at +760 followed by Brooks Koepka at +1,000. Adam Scott (+1,300), Phil Mickelson (+1,800) and Francesco Molinari (+1,900) round out the top five. Daniel Berger (+2,700), Kyle Stanley (+3,000) and Russell Henley (+3,000) are the remaining players at +3,000 or better.
Ten to watch at FedEx St. Jude Classic
By STATS LLC Editorial
Vegasinsider.com
1. Rickie Fowler, United States -- Even though he held the lead on the back nine of the final round in the Memorial Tournament last week before fading with two late bogeys, it's been a good season for Fowler, who is No. 9 in the Official World Golf Ranking and eighth in the FedExCup point standings. His tie for second behind Jason Dufner at Muirfield Village was his fifth result in the top 10 this season, including his fourth PGA Tour victory in the Honda Classic. He also tied for third in the Shell Houston Open and tied for fourth in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Fowler was also in the hunt in the Masters before closing with a 76 to tie for 11th. He will be making only his second appearance in the FedEx St. Jude Classic this week and shot par or better in all four rounds four years ago while finishing in a tie for 13th at TPC Southwind.
2. Adam Scott, Australia -- At this stage of his career, Scott tailors his schedule to prepare for the major championships, and this season he apparently believes playing this week in the FedEx St. Jude Classic is the best way to prepare for the U.S. Open next week at Erin Hills. In his only previous appearance at TPC Southwind in 2007, he seemed to be heading for a victory when he started with 67-66-68 to take a three-stroke lead, before stumbling home with a 75 to wind up solo seventh. Scott has not been at his best since winning the Honda Classic and the WGC-Cadillac Championship on consecutive weeks early last year to give him 13 victories on the PGA Tour. However, he hasn't been that far off this season with six top-15 finishes in 10 starts on the PGA Tour, including a tie for sixth in the Players Championship and a tie for ninth in the Masters, in which he claimed his only major title in 2013.
3. Brooks Koepka, United States -- Despite not winning since claiming his only PGA Tour victory in the 2015 Waste Management Phoenix Open, Koepka continues to knock on the door. He has posted three results in the top five this season, including two runner-up finishes. Koepka wound up two strokes behind Rod Pampling of Australia after opening with a 62 in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, and finished one shot behind Kevin Chappell in the Valero Texas Open after closing with a 65. He was also close to winning last year, when he lost to Sergio Garcia of Spain in a playoff at the AT&T Byron Nelson and tied for second in the FedEx St. Jude Classic, which he is playing for the fourth time this week. Koepka obviously enjoys it at TPC Southwind because he also tied for third two years ago and tied for 19th in 2014. Last year, he closed with 65-69-66 and finished three shots behind Daniel Berger.
4. Daniel Berger, United States -- The 2015 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year has not been able to back up his first victory on the circuit in the FedEx St. Jude Classic last year, but continues to play solid golf in his third season. He has placed in the top 10 on three occasions, tying for second behind Hideki Matsuyama of Japan in the WGC-HSBC Champions, tying for seventh in the Waste Management Phoenix Open and finishing solo fifth in the Shell Houston Open. Last year in his first start at TPC Southwind, he reeled off four scores in the 60s to win by three strokes over Koepka, Phil Mickelson and Steve Stricker. Berger, who had finished second three times on the PGA Tour without winning, overcame a three-round rain delay and a charge by Mickelson in the final round with four birdies in a span of five holes through No. 15. He sank a 32-foot birdie putt on the 14th hole and followed with a 22-footer on the 15th.
5. Phil Mickelson, United States -- Lefty almost always plays the week before a major, but the twist this time is he probably won't tee it up in the U.S. Open next week at Erin Hills in Wisconsin because his daughter, Amanda, is graduating from high school in California on the same day as the first round. Mickelson, a five-time major champion, needs only the U.S. Open to complete the career Grand Slam, but says family comes first. He is making his seventh start this week at TPC Southwind and has been in contention each of the last four years, finishing two strokes behind Harris English in a tie for second in 2013, and three shots behind Daniel Berger last year in another tie for second. Mickelson also closed with a 65 to tie for third in 2015 and tied for 11th in 2014. After playing TPC Southwind in an aggregate score of even par in his first six rounds, including a missed cut in 2001, he is a total of 34-under in his last 16 rounds.
6. Francesco Molinari, Italy -- Coming off a runner-up finish in the BMW PGA Championship, flagship event on the European Tour at Wentworth outside London, Molinari will warm up for the U.S. Open next week at Erin Hills with his second start in the St. Jude FedEx Classic. The Italian held the 54-hole lead and closed with a 4-under-par 68 that would have been good enough to win on many days at Wentworth, but Alex Noren of Sweden shot a blistering 62 to beat him by two strokes. Molinari, whose victory in the 2016 Italian Open was the sixth of his career, is playing both major tours this year. He has recorded four top-10 finishes and 10 in the top 25 in 13 PGA Tour events, including a tie for fourth in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, ties for sixth in both the Players Championship and the WGC-HSBC Champions, and a tie for seventh in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Molinari tied for 34th at TPC Southwind last year.
7. Billy Horschel, United States -- Horschel has had a bit of a letdown since winning the AT&T Byron Nelson last month for his fourth PGA Tour victory, and first since 2014, in a playoff over Jason Day. In his last two starts, he tied for 34th in the Dean & DeLuca Invitational and missed the cut in the Memorial Tournament last week after opening with a 6-over-par 78. However, he is coming back to TPC Southwind for the seventh time, and has played well in his last three appearances. After missing the cut in his first two trips to Memphis and tying for 72nd in 2013, he started to figure out the course by finishing with 69-68-67 to tie for 10th in 2013. Then Horschel tied for sixth in 2014 before tying for eighth two years ago, and skipped the tournament last year. In addition to his victory in the Nelson, he also has a tie for second in the RSM Classic and a tie for fourth in the Honda Classic this season.
8. Russell Henley, United States -- It's been a struggle recently for Henley after he claimed his third PGA Tour victory in the Shell Houston Open and tied for 11th in the Masters the following week. He has missed the cut in two of his last three starts and his best result in the last four was a tie for 26th in the RBC Heritage. Henley will try to get back to his form of early this season, when he finished in the top 25 eight times in his first 12 starts, a run that has kept him at 16th in the FedExCup point standings despite his recent slump. He will be fresh when he gets to TPC Southwind after taking two weeks off and will be making his fourth start in the FedEx St. Jude Classic. After tying for 27th in his first start in Memphis four years ago, Horschel shot 70-75 -- 145 to miss the cut by five strokes in 2014, but seemed to figure out the course while tying for seventh last year.
9. Charl Schwartzel, South Africa -- It appeared Schwartzel was in top form when he finished third in the Masters, which he won in 2011, but he was forced to withdraw in his next start from the AT&T Byron Nelson during the third round after solid scores of 70-69 because of a left wrist injury. He sustained the injury when he was hit by an errant shot from one of his partners during a pro-am. Schwartzel came back for the Memorial Tournament last week and said the wrist is fine, then posted scores of 70-71-71 before stumbling to a closing 4-over-par 76 to finish in a tie for 35th. He often doesn't play the week before a major, but obviously feels he needs the work and will tee it up this week in the FedEx St. Jude Classic for only the second time. Schwartzel, who captured the Valspar Championship last year, shot 76-70 -- 146 to miss the cut by five strokes in his only previous appearance at TPC Southwind.
10. Kevin Chappell, United States -- Chappell followed up his best finish in the Masters early in April, a tie for seventh, by claiming the Valero Texas Open for his first PGA Tour victory two weeks later when he sank an 8-foot birdie putt on the final hole to beat Koepka by one stroke. He has had a bit of a letdown since with a tie for 35th in the Players Championship and a tie for 52nd in the Memorial Tournament, but could be ready to get back on track a week before the U.S. Open at Erin Hills when he plays for the second time in the FedEx St. Jude Classic beginning Thursday. Chappell, who finished second six times on the PGA Tour before winning in his 180th start, tied for 22nd in his only previous start at TPC Southwind in 2015, shooting 4-under-par 64 in the second round but failing to break 70 on any of the other three days.