Free Picks: Breeders Cup Service Plays for Friday, November 5,2010

(RACE 6) JUVENILE FILLY TURF (Post time 4:50 ET)

1st Selection ( # 7 ) WINTER MEMORIES Crystal Ball Best Bet
Winter Memories is a homebred daughter of El Prado out of the exquisite race mare, Memories of Silver. Trained by Jimmy Toner, Memories of Silver won the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup in 1996, the Grade 1Beverly D at Arlington Park in 1997 and the Grade 1 Diana Handicap at Saratoga in 1998. Additionally, four of her 5 offspring have won over turf and 2 others are stakes winners. Toner brought Winter Memories to the races in two stages. He gave her five works spaced 6 or 7 days apart; she fired two bullets never working slower that 3rd best of the day. When he had her work over turf on August 2, Toner must have felt he might be watching another special horse. Winter Memories took to the turf working in 1:00 flat (8th of 21) and .48 flat around the ‘dogs” (2nd of 45). Winter Memories made her debut at Saratoga on September 3rd. NYRA line-maker Eric Donovan made her 8-1, but there are few secrets at the track, and bettors sent her off as the 5-2 favorite. She hopped at the break, then settled near the rear of field strung out d over a very dry, firm and fast turf course. Jockey Jose Lezcano kept her clear in the 3-and 4 path down the backstretch. Rounding the far turn, Winter Memories moved professionally between horses to gain the hedge entering the stretch. From there she galloped by the leader to a clear 1 ½ victory. Winter Memories returned on October 3rd in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont Park. On that day, breaking from post 11 in a field of 12, Winter Memories settled 2nd last through the early running and late down the backstretch. Leaving the backstretch and rounding the far turn, Winter Memories moved up behind a widening wall of horses. Leaving the turn and entering the stretch, Lezcano tipped widest and set her down. She exploded past the field when asked and was well clear before drifting in to the rail from that effort. Lezcano straightened her with one right hand strike and she galloped to the wire. Winter Memories impressed in her debut race; she delivered an eye-popping impressive performance in her second, the Miss Grillo. There she faced a good field of 2-yo fillies. The early pace was honest. The field did come back to her a bit but that would be expected over soft going. Winter Memories just blew by them, coming home in 12.53 seconds. In her two career starts, Winter Memories has been impressive running down paces that have not been exceptionally fast. That being said, Winter Memories should benefit from the faster pace expected in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Toner is reputed to have claimed that Winter Memories might need time and seasoning into her 3-yo season before she would show her quality and class. Not so.

2nd Selection (# 2) TALE UNTOLD
Tale Untold is trained by Richard Hannon, trainer of the very good European miler Paco Boy, a strong contender entered in the Breeders Cup Mile. Hannon, a top class European conditioner, and does not frivolously ship his runners around the world. Note that there is considerable turf and class in the pedigree of this daughter of Tale of the Cat out of the Rahy mare Bank On Her. Both sire and dam were quality US grass stakes horses. Tale Untold broke her maiden over the Kempton polytrack on July 7. After a poor start, she unleashed a powerful run to gain the lead shortly after the half and run off to a decisive 5-length lead. Tale Untold returned a month later to sprint 6 furlongs over turf labeled “good-firm” in a Listed stakes, the EBF Dick Poole Fillies Stakes at Salisbury. In choosing this stake it became obvious that Hannon thought very highly of his filly, but she was overmatched that day. She would race up-close in a tight pack to finish a non-threatening but narrowly beaten 5th. Hannon immediately entered Tale Untold back on 2-weeks rest at the proper MSW level where she faced a tough field that included the well-regarded Group 3 stakes placed Masaya and Simayill. Tale Untold stalked the pace, gained the front only to be hooked and headed by the eventual winner. Once passed in the stretch run, however, Tale Untold dug in gamely and showed determination and maturity beyond her experience, coming back to the leader but losing in a narrow photo. One month later Hannon entered hid charge in a similar spot, a large field of 20 that included both Masaya and the improving filly, Together. Tale Untold stalked among the front pack of runners, and sustained a strong run at the leaders sandwiched in 2nd by a neck between rivals Masaya and Together. Tale Untold’s sprint efforts have set her up well for her first try around 2-turns at 8 furlongs. Both sides of the pedigree suggest distance will not be an issue. She is a tractable front-half stalker capable of assuming good position, proving that in her last when facing a large field. Most importantly, she has proven she can sustain herlater run in a fight to the wire against quality peers. Tale Untold may lack stakes winning credentials of several of her rivals in the Juvenile Turf, but she lacks neither ability nor anticipated improvement stretching out in distance. Another good signal is the fact that she is reunited with jockey Ryan Moore. Tale Untold will be a better than fair odds to run a big race on Friday.

3rd Selection (# 13) TOGETHER
Together, a $467k purchase by Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, and Mrs. John Magnier, is a son of Euro champion and classic winner Galileo. A winner of over $2 million in England and Ireland, Galileo has sired 16 Group 1 winners. The dam, Shadow Song, was a winner in France. Together is her second foal to race and a half-brother to Jan Vermeer, a French Group 1 winner at 2 and second place finisher in the 2010 Irish Derby also owned and trained by these connections. Together broke her maiden easily second out when stretched to 7 furlongs. Since that time she has raced strictly in Group Stakes competition over varying ground conditions. In the Group 2 Keeneland Debutante Stakes, Together stepped up in class to face the highly regarded Misty For Me and 7 others. Over a yielding course she did not appear to enjoy, Together stalked up-close to the leaders, weakening from the effort staying on to finish well-beaten but a clear 3rd behind upset winner Laughing Lashes and Misty For Me. These three rivals met again in the 7 furlong Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. Together chased her two rivals without gaining ground and was outkicked late checking in 4th beaten 1 ¾ lengths. Expected to improve stretching out to 8 furlongs, Together delivered a strong effort in a neck loss to the undefeated White Moonstone. Racing fourth along the fence throughout in a field of 5, jockey Johnny Murtagh tipped out leaving the turn. Together gained ground with White Moonstone to her outside, drifted a bit, straightened and finished with a flourish racing between rivals. Passed by White Moonstone, Together was still somewhat green and slow to change leads but re-rallied and was gaining late to lose by a neck in a much improved effort. Cut back to 7 furlongs in her last and facing a large field of 19, Together broke well, saved ground and finished well between rivals to just miss again by a short neck. The race dynamics of Euro front-half stalkers change when they race in the USA as the quicker American pace relegates them to rear-half rally-types. Together has shown the ability to stay and run on. She has the pedigree to handle longer distances, ample stakes seasoning, the experience of racing in large fields and top connections. Together is a strong contender to win the Juvenile Fillies turf.

4th Selection (# 3) QUIET OASIS
Quiet Oasis is one of four Breeders Cup runners from Brian Meehan, who has been among leading British trainers during his 12 year career. Sire Oasis Dream was a Group 1 winner sprinting over turf, but Quiet Oasis gets stamina from dam Silent Heir, a daughter of the great Sunday Silence. Quiet Oasis made her debut at 20-1 in maiden ranks sprinting over turf labeled “good-soft”, a non-winning effort in which she was rated near the rear in a field of 13 and finished with interest to be 3rd beaten only 1½- lengths. Off that promising effort, next out Meehan raced her on polytrack and over conditions in a stake. As the 2-5 favorite in a field of 7, Quiet Oasis broke well after some anxious moments in the gate, pressed early, moved to take control on the lead, and held off a late challenge from Zing Wing to score comfortably. Two runners behind Quiet Oasis have since gone on to race well and win, place finisher Zing Wing and 4th place Adorable Choice. Quiet Oasis delivered a professional effort win in winning over a good field of runners with more experience. Logically, Meehan opted for a Group 3 stakes at the Curragh. On this day Quiet Oasis would be asked to handle 7 furlongs over her third track and third surface! Stepping up in class and facing a field of 11 over a course labeled “soft”, Quiet Oasis appeared to struggle over surface, stalking in mid-pack while stuck down along the boggier inside. She managed to make one move on the leaders to reach 3rd but was unable to sustain her run or hold that position, finishing 4th beaten only 1¼-lengths. I feel that, given the dam side pedigree, Meehan has been thinking Breeders Cup with this filly all along. The three efforts at 7 furlongs should set her up well to go 8 furlongs on Friday. The win over polytrack suggests Quiet Oasis will move up over the firmer ground expected at Churchill Downs. While several rivals have faced Group and Graded Stakes Company, Quiet Oasis is an improving in the care of a very sharp trainer; under top Euro-jock Frankie Dettori, she will offer value in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

5th Selection (# 4) KATHMANBLU
Kathmanblu made her second career start at Ellis Park, and she was no secret. Her dismal failure trying 4.5 furlongs at 38-1 in a June debut at Churchill Downs was summarily dismissed by bettors. Entered to go 8 furlongs facing an undistinguished field of 7 at Ellis, Kathmanblu stalked, moved decisively to the lead, then tired from the effort but held gamely for the win. On that day, she accomplished what was asked, winning going a route over turf while beating what proved to be a weak field, as only one runner came back out of that race to win, and that runner was dropped into a $30k maiden claimer. Trainer Ken McPeek knew he had a talented filly and gave her time to rest before skipping conditions and spotting her to attempt 8.5 furlongs at Saratoga in a much tougher field of 2-yos, the P.G Johnson Stakes. You know that the Saratoga inner turf course was unbelievably speed biased throughout the meet. In the P. G. Johnson Kathmanblu was victimized by soft fractions and the biased surface when rival Fancy Points stepped out on the lead and off to a gate-to-wire victory. Kathmanblu, at 16-1, closed powerfully against the grain of the track to finish 2nd beaten only 1½-lengths. The P.G. Johnson field proved strong as several rivals won or raced well next out, and Fancy Point will run in this race.

#7 Winder Memories Win & Place
We already have a Pick 3 wager that 'key's our top selection in this race, (7)WINTER MEMORIES. With the new $0.50 Trifecta option, we can also take a shot at this wager as well, without a big investment.

* $0.50 Trifecta: 7 over 2-3-4-13 over ALL = $24

(RACE 7) FILLY AND MARE SPRINT (Post time 5:30 ET)

1st Selection (# 14 ) CHAMPAGNE D’ ORO
Champagne d’ Oro is the 9th foal and first stakes winner out of dam Champagne Glow, a Grade 2-placed stakes winner herself. She is sibling to multiple Grade 1 winner Grand Canyon and Grade 3 winner Champagne Ginny. She is in the care of Eric Guillot, a fast talking, loose-as-a goose Louisiana-born horseman who can flat out train. He has managed this improving 3-yo filly from her debut with confidence in his ability to have her ready and in her ability to deliver on race day. Early on, however, the journey was not without speed bumps. Champagne d’ Oro took three races to break her maiden because, after a narrow loss in a solid debut effort over synthetics at Hollywood Park, Guillot confidently placed her into overnight stakes competition. After two additional losses, it became evident that Champagne d’ Oro did not handle the Hollywood surface. When racing shifted to Del Mar, Champagne d’ Oro broke her maiden only to be disqualified from purse money! From that winning/non-winning effort, Guillot curiously decided to send her against colts in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. In that race, she was victimized at the start and never found stride in a dismal effort. Undeterred, Guillot sent his charge to the 2009 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies where, dismissed at 80-1, Champagne D’ Oro never ran a step in a last place finish. The net result of her 2-yo season, run entirely over California synthetic surfaces, was a 6-0-1-1 record and, despite winning an actual race, she was “technically’ a maiden! In early 2010, Guillot switched his operations from California to Fair Grounds for the winter season. There, Champagne d’ Oro flourished. She broke her maiden in a wire-to-wire nose victory. She followed with a strong effort but narrow loss in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks going 8.5 furlongs. Off two very strong efforts, Guillot opted to take on the top 3-yo fillies in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on April 30. Breaking from post 10, Champagne d’ Oro would experience a tough trip. Squeezed between rivals at the break, she would race in behind horses into the backstretch, move up along the rail into traffic, steady back, and make another brief run before weakening to finish far back. The Kentucky Oaks would be Champagne d’ Oro’s 3rd and last defeat going 2-turns. Champagne d’ Oro’s next race would be the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes going 8 furlongs at Belmont Park. In retrospect, the effort in the Kentucky Oaks was a much “better than looks” effort. On this day Champagne d’ Oro would break on top from post 11, set modest fractions and have enough to hold off fast closing favorite Amen Alleluia to post an upset victory at 39-1. Guillot would remain to race on the NYRA circuit, finishing a strong 2nd behind top sprinter Franny Freud when cut back to 6 furlongs in the Grade 1 Prioress and following that effort with a strong win in the 7 furlong Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga. Champagne d’ Oro finally lived up to Guillot’s expectations identified by her ambitious 2-yo schedule. Champagne d ‘Oro has proven herself a talented sprinter-miler with limitations beyond that distance. Her best races have come on dirt. Speed is her game, and, while she has not yet won as a stalker up close to the pace, she has proven she can press a pace early, put away rivals, and run on powerfully to win. She has a race, albeit a traffic-filled non-winning race at the wrong distance over the main track at Churchill Downs. Her most recent effort in the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America over the wrong surface at Keeneland should set her up perfectly for a top effort on dirt. Since then, Champagne d ‘Oro shows three excellent works at Churchill and enters the Filly and Mare Sprint in top form. Champagne d’ Oro should not be hampered by the draw as she has won and run well from posts 10 and 11.

2nd Selection (# 13 ) RIGHTLY SO
Rightly So, a New York bred daughter of Read The Footnotes, owns a most impressive 11-7-3-1 race record, including 3 wins at the Filly and Mare distance of 7 furlongs. She gets stamina and speed from sire Read The Footnotes, a winner of the 9 Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at 9 furlongs and the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes at 8 furlongs as a 2-yo, and the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at gulfstream Park at 3. She is the first foal to race from the unraced Dam Fit Right In. Trainer Anthony Dutrow has managed this filly beautifully. Rightly So broke her maiden in her 2nd career start. From that effort, Dutrow moved her through her NYbred conditions and into the NYbred Stakes program, en route to a 5-race win skein. Off those efforts, Dutrow put her away and brought her back to racing in February of 2010. Rightly So made her 3-yo debut in a non-winning effort losing by ¾ going 6 furlong in the mud and followed that with another narrow nose loss trying 7.5 furlongs. Off two narrow wet track defeats, Dutrow rested her again for two months. Rightly So returned to racing on May 29, making her initial foray outside the NYbred ranks in the Grade 2 Vagrancy Stakes going 6.5 furlongs. She would set a fast pressured pace, duel into the lane, gain the lead and duel gamely to the wire with eventual winner Sapphire Sky. Rightly So would earn black type next out in the Grade 3 Bed of Roses going 7 furlongs. Again she set a strong pressured pace, opened up in the lane but this time held gamely for a narrow head victory. Dutrow pointed her for the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes at 7 furlongs on Travers day at Saratoga. Rightly So figured to be a strong contender here. She won as much the best but was the beneficiary of a strong speed bias in posting a decisive 4-length victory. Rightly So will be very tough in the Filly and mare Sprint. Her connections have put up a $90,000 supplemental fee to run. There is much to like here. First, she is as honest a filly as I have seen; she never fails to fire. Her non-winning efforts are narrow defeats, without excuse. Second, she possesses the kind of early foot that bottoms out chasers. Third, while she has not had to pass horses, she has carried her speed beyond 7 furlongs and has show courage and determination, giving ground grudgingly when hooked by rivals in the lane. Fourth, there are few trainers better than Tony Dutrow at pointing a horse to a race and having that horse deliver at top effort in that race. Rightly So will be dangerous and very tough to run down in the Filly and Mare Sprint.

3rd Selection ( # 5) EVENING JEWEL
Evening Jewel presents an interesting puzzle. There is no argument with this 3-yo filly’s talent and class. On the one hand, since failing to break her maiden in her debut race in August of 2009, this Cal-bred daughter of Northern Afleet has never finished out of the exacta! She is a winner over synthetic surfaces, turf and a nose short of a dirt win; she can run on nails. Evening Jewel is a Grade 1 winner over turf, having won the Del Mar Oaks over Harmonious and the improving Perfect Shirl. On the other hand, her early career sprint efforts came against Cal-breds, and she did not come into her own until stretched out to race around 2-turns. One might look at the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks as representative of what we might expect from Evening Jewel. Yes, it was over dirt and the pace was the strongest she had faced. But, the race dynamics going 9-furlongs around 2-turns are different from the dynamics of a stakes sprint. Evening Jewel’s races at 8-furlongs provide the most insight as to how she might handle this shorter distance. In the Grade 1 Las Vergennes run over synthetics at Santa Anita, Evening Jewel stalked in striking position, chasing soft fractions throughout, made the lead in the stretch but lost by a nose to the late-running Blind Luck. In the Grade 2 San Clemente Stakes run over synthetics at Del Mar in July, Evening Jewel stalked closer to a stronger pace set by rank outsiders and pulled clear in a perfect trip win. Evening Jewel’s running style is that of a sustained front-half stalker. Additionally, Evening Jewel has never won a race by a length or more, but managed to hold on and win despite losing ground to closing rivals every time she has led in the stretch! To contend and win the Filly and Mare Sprint Evening Jewel must successfully cutback to this sprint, a distance at which she has never run. She will be asked to track a stronger pace than she has faced, and run down or hold off proven Graded stakes sprinters.

4th Selection (# 12) DUBAI MAJESTY
Dubai Majesty is an interesting entrant in this Filly and Mare Sprint field. Frankly, I don’t think trainer Calhoun would have entered her to race in the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes going 6 furlongs at Keeneland, a “Win and Your In” race, were the Breeders Cup being contested somewhere other than Churchill Downs. Dubai Majesty is 6-3-0-1 racing over the Churchill main track, a horse-for-the-course, with one loss coming over a sloppy track she did not handle. To further support my contention, trainer Calhoun’s 5-year record in Graded stakes sprints is 10-2-1-3, and Dubai Majesty owns the wins as well as two of the 3rd places finishes. Dubai Majesty is Calhoun’s stakes “money” horse. Dubai Majesty has proven her versatility. She is a multiple winner on fast dirt and turf; she has won over a wet track and over synthetic. Of her 11 wins, six have come at 6 furlongs and two at 8 furlongs, one each over dirt and turf. While Dubai Majesty’s 7 furlong record of 7-0-1-3 might not inspire confidence on the win end, she appears to be in the best form of her career and fit enough to fire another top effort. Three races back Dubai Majesty ran down fast fractions going 5.5 furlongs over turf at Monmouth Park. Following that effort, Calhoun sent to test 2009 Filly and Mare Sprint Champion Informed Decision going 6.5 furlongs over her home surface, the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs. Dubai Majesty closed powerfully while widest only to fall short by a head. These rivals met again at Keeneland in the 6 furlong TCA, with Dubai Majesty defeating Informed Decision again, though Informed Decision was taken back to 8th before mounting her bid in what was clearly prep. I like the switch from turf and synthetic back to a favorite dirt track. Dubai Majesty returns to Churchill Downs, a track she loves, in top form. The anticipated pace will set up Dubai Majesty’s late run. While I think a win will represent a real upset, Dubai Majesty will offer solid value in the exotics.

5th Selection (# 9) SWITCH
Switch is in the care of trainer John Sadler, a trainer winning at a 20% clip through 2010. Sadler has a strong 18% record winning Graded stakes. More importantly, he is proven capable of winning Grades stakes sprints with horses cutting back in distance and switching surfaces from synthetic to dirt, which is what Switch will be asked to do. I find Switch an intriguing competitor in this field. I like the fact that she was successful sprinting at the start of her racing career. I also like her running style as she has demonstrated speed, tactical speed and finishing ability. Switch was impressive breaking her maiden at 6.5 furlongs, and then was immediately stepped up into Grade 2 stakes company to face the talented duo of Amen Alleluia and Franny Freud. She was not disgraced, finishing 3rd beaten 1¾-lengths in a “key” race from which both rivals returned to win. In her next start, the Grade 1 Las Vergennes run at 8 furlongs, Switch set modest fractions on the lead only to be run down late by the very talented Blind Luck and Evening Jewel. Sadler then felt confident enough to ship East to Gulfstream Park to stretch Switch out to 9 furlongs for the Grade 3 Bonnie Miss. Racing over dirt for the first time, Switch gained the lead from her inside post, setting stronger fractions than in her last over synthetics and pressed throughout first by sprinter Christine Daae, then by the eventual winner Amen Alleluia. She weakened late to finish a wellbeaten 4th in what I view to be an effort that suggests Switch will handle the main track at Churchill Downs. Returned to the West coast for a freshening, Switch came back to racing on May 9 in the Grade 3 Railbird Stakes. Back on synthetics, Switch stalked a slow pace and finished very fast only to miss by a short ½ length. That race marked a different Switch, a horse capable of finishing fast. Following that strong return effort, Switch was stretched out in distance to 8.5 furlongs in the Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks. This day Switch showed another new dimension, rating further back than ever before behind extremely soft fractions of 50 flat and 1:14.40. She would again finish powerfully, holding off the late running Blind Luck to earn her black type. I believe it was at this juncture that Sadler began preparation for the Filly and Mare Sprint. Switch would have three more races. First, Switch made her turf debut in the Grade 2 San Clemente Stakes in a race that was much “better than looks” on paper. Switch was forced to race under pressure in the vice between rivals throughout, was buffeted about leaving the backstretch and blocked rounding the turn. She had run when free and finished 5th beaten 1¾-lengths. Sadler then gave Switch class relief, spotting her in an overnight stakes field that she dominated and used as prep for her last race, the Grade 1 Lady’s Secret and Zenyatta. In the Lady’s Secret, Switch stalked 3rd choice Moon de French through soft fractions, powered by that one but, like every other racehorse to try, was unable to hold off the late run of the great Zenyatta. I said earlier I find Switch intriguing. This is a quality horse that has only raced outside Graded Stakes Company once since her maiden win. While racing primarily over synthetic surfaces, Switch has handled both turf and dirt more than reasonably well. With Rightly So in the race, Switch will sit a stalking trip and might get first run at that rival. Also, the cutback in distance is not a concern but a positive as Switch has proven she can compete against quality horses at shorter trips.

WAGERING STRATEGY:
* A win and place bet on (14)CHAMPAGNE D'ORO
* Equal exacta box 13 – 14
* Smaller exacta part wheel: 13–14 over 5-9-12 = $12 for a $2 wager
* PICK 4 WAGER:
Ticket 1: 5-13-14 / 2-3-4-8-12 / 7 / 1-8-10-11 = 3x5x1x4x $0.50 = $30
Ticket 2: ALL / 2-8 / 7 / 1-10 = 14x2x1x2x $0.50 = $28

We are 'keying' (7)MIDDAY in this Pick 4 wager and spreading to various degrees in the other legs. Even though she is the favorite, the other three races in this Pick 4 wager could produce one or more longshot winners, and thus give us a nice payoff of we win.

(RACE 8) JUVENILE FILLIES (Post time 6:10 ET)

1st Selection (# 2) THEYSKEN’S THEORY
Theysken’s Theory’s trainer Brian Meehan is launching a personal British invasion at Churchill Downs with four combatants, including Mantoba in the Juvenile Turf, Quiet Oasis in the Juvenile Filly Turf, Dangerous Midge in the Turf. Theysken’s Theory is a daughter of the great router Bernardini. Bernardini, the leading active sire, was Champion 3-yo male and winner of the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, Travers Stakes, and Jockey Club Gold Club before moving to stud at Darley Stable. Her dam Heat Lightning’s 8 foals are all winners, and Theysken’s Theory is a half-sister to Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy. To suggest that this Euro-based filly who has been racing strictly over turf should handle the switch to racing over dirt is understatement. Despite Brian Meehan’s belief words that he "… thought she'd be good the moment she stepped off the ramp of the horsebox,” not much was expected by local “punters” when Theysken’s Theory debuted going 6 furlongs over “good” ground at Newmarket. She was dismissed at 12-1 and finished a dismal 9th in a field of 12 after fumbling at the start. With that race behind her and extra gate work, she made steady improvement off that race, breaking her maiden next out crushing a similar field of 12 by 5-lengths. Despite being a big filly that might have trouble over ground that was less than firm, she followed that effort with an equally impressive gate-to-wire victory in the Group 3 Prestige Stakes, run over soft ground, handling a promising filly in Masaya. Masaya would win back out of that race defeating both Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly Turf contestants Tale Untold and Together. On September 25th, Theysken’s Theory found herself at Ascot in a short but talent-filled 5-horse field for the Group 1 Meon Valley Stud Fillies Mile. Theysken’s Theory did all the dirty work over a rain-softened soft course. She stalked the pace setter, moved to pass that rival rounding into the straight, quickened nicely on the lead but was unable to hold off the late rally of highly regarded rivals White Moonstone and Together. In all her races, Theysken’s Theory has shown good speed over turf. It is reasonable to expect regular Ryan Moore, who will be in for the mount, to be satisfied stalking the pace as dirt raced in the states offer much faster early fractions. Again, this is a good-sized filly who was somewhat compromised by the soft ground in her last. I feel she will relish the switch to dirt and be a fair price to win the Juvenile Fillies. Note that trainer Brian Meehan has hired jockey Frankie Dettorri to handle the reigns, another positive signal.

2nd Selection (# 8) A Z WARRIOR
A Z Warrior, a daughter of Bernardini, out of Carson Jen by sprinter Carson City, is half sister to sprinting stakes winners E Z Warrior and J Z Warrior. This pedigree is tilted towards speed on the dam side, but the quality of the Brenardini influence suggests she will handle routes up to 9 furlongs. A Z Warrior is trained by Bob Baffert. Baffert, a winner of 7 Breeders Cup races, including 2 Juvenile events and 1 Juvenile Filly, knows how to prepare his good ones for the Breeders Cup. In her four careers starts, and despite enduring two losses, A Z Warrior has shown quality and class. Based in California and racing over synthetics, she dusted seven rivals in her debut as the 6-5 favorite. A confident Baffert opted to skip allowance conditions and send her 6.5 furlongs in the Grade 3 Sorrento. Chasing a strong pace, A Z Warrior rallied 3-wide into the lane to finish 2nd to the very good Wickedly Perfect. Off that effort, A Z Warrior was again stretched out in distance to the Grade 1 7 furlong Darley Debutante Stakes on September 4. She would break well from post 9 and stalk the pace while widest down the backstretch. Entering the stretch she was soundly bumped when eventual winner Tell A Kelly tipped out for his run. A Z Warrior was weakening at the time of the bump and was not going to threaten the top finishers. She finished a dismal 5th beaten nearly 9-lengths by rivals Tell A Kelly, Wickedly Perfect and Rigolleta. This was a quality field as Wickedly Perfect went on to win the G1 Darley Alcibiades and Rigoletta would earn a narrow victory over Tell A Kelly in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf at Oak Tree at Hollywood. Trainer Baffert has never been a proponent of synthetic surfaces. Thus it was no surprise when he decided to ship A Z Warrior east to Belmont Park for the Grade 1 Frizette, and run over dirt at a flat mile. A Z Warrior enjoyed the surface switch, breaking well, setting strong early fractions, opening 4-lengths in the stretch and cruising to a 1 ¾ length victory. I feel confident that A Z Warrior’s non-winning efforts at Del Mar are surface related. Yes, she finished 2nd in the Sorrento on the polytrack, but there was not much in that race behind the top two. She was soundly beaten in the Debutante without any visible excuse other than perhaps the surface. Ironically, rivals Wickedly Perfect and Rigolleta have been injured and are out for the year. A Z Warrior has speed, has successfully made the transition from synthetic to dirt that is so important this year, and is in the hands of a Hall of Fame trainer with an outstanding record in the Breeders Cup. Additionally, she reunites with Baffert’s current “go to” jockey, Martin Garcia. Two-turns and the extra distance of the Breeders Cup should be perfect for this speedy daughter of Bernardini.

3rd Selection (# 3) R HEAT LIGHTNING
R Heat Lightning is one of many Breeders Cup entrants from Todd Pletcher’s powerful stable. Her career began as a second-tier runner as part of his Delaware Park string. An impressive 5-length maiden victory earned her a spot in the Colleen Stakes at Monmouth Park. Monmouth Park experienced a sustained inside speed bias throughout its “Million Dollar” summer meet. In the Colleen, R Heat Lightning broke 6th in a field of 7, chased a strong pace while widest throughout and finished very well to be second. She did benefit from fast fractions but showed determination closing ground against the grain of the track. No longer a second-stringer, R Heat Lightning was sent off as the favorite in the 7 furlongs Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes at Saratoga on Labor Day weekend. The pace here was very strong, playing to R Heat Lightning’s running style, and she dusted this group. The field that day was suspect as none have run back to run well or win out of that race. The win, however, earned R Heat Lightning favoritism again in the next logical spot for a quality 2-yo filly on the NYRA circuit, the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont Park on October 9. Like Tell A Kelly above, this off-thepace runner would face softer fractions on this day. Also, after breaking inwards towards the chute from post 1, R Heat Lightning fought jockey John Velazquez through the early run along the inside and down the backstretch before settling into stride. Entering the turn, Velazquez had to wait for room before sending his charge up the fence after the leader, but it was too late. R Heat Lightning has expended too much energy early in the race and so was not running down the winner, A Z Warrior. R Heat Lightning is another who should benefit from a stronger pace. While the pedigree is tilted towards sprints on both sides, R Heat Lightning should have no problem handling the distance of the Juvenile Fillies. If able to rate comfortably rather than fight her rider, and with the benefit of a pace that is expected to honest at least, R Heat Lightning, a beaten favorite in the Frizette, should improve at fair odds.

4th Selection (# 4) AWESOME FEATHER
Awesome Feather will enter the Breeders Cup undefeated in five careers starts, as only the third filly to sweep the Florida Stallion Stakes in races run over Calder Race Course. The pedigree is modest with class coming primarily from the dam side family. The dam was a multiple stakes winner; there’s Euro class going back two generations. Sire Awesome Of Course is a son of Breeders Cup Classic winner Awesome Again. Awesome Feather should handle the stretch out in distance from sprints to routes. Trainer Stanley Gold, strictly a Florida-based trainer, has not shipped to race outside of Florida in the last three years. His strength is the claiming game, but he has won with 12 of 65 stakes starts (18%) during this time period. I think it’s great for the game when low profile connections gain notoriety with a “big” horse (how quickly can you say Funny Cide) and their journey to big-time racing is chronicled by the media. Awesome Feather has stamped herself as special in her region, completely dominating her competition, except for a ½ length victory resulting from a troubled start in the $100k J J’s Dream stake. In that race she showed maturity and determination. Throughout her 5-race career, Awesome Feather has shown good tactical speed and strong finishing kick. She has chased soft fractions and run by her competition; she has set strong fractions and run away from her competition. The question remains: what is the quality of that competition compared with other racing venues around the country? In the biggest races I prefer horses that are battle hardened and tested in the lane. In crushing her competition to date, Awesome Feather has been visually impressive in all her starts. While I to pay little attention to speed figures, I am not averse to applying figures for comparison in the absence of other information. That being said, Awesome Feather has earned competitive and consistently improving speed figures in her sprint efforts. Also, there is some benefit for training and racing over a Calder Race Course that is often deep and tiring. The small number of Calder shippers that make their way to Saratoga Race Course often outrun their odds and get the money. Perhaps Awesome Feather can do the same in this Cup race. Despite coming into this race undefeated, Awesome Feather’s connections and company lines will keep her somewhat under the radar and offer fair odds.

WAGERING STRATEGY:
* A win and place bet on (2)THEYSKENS' THEORY
* Trifecta Box: 2-3-4-8 = $24 for a $1 wager
* PICK 3 WAGER:
Ticket 1: 2-3-4-8-12 / 1-3-6-7-10 / 10 = 5x5x1x $1 = $25
Ticket 2: 2-8 / 7 / 10 = 2x1x1x $3 = $6

(RACE 9) FILLY AND MARE TURF (Post time 6:50 ET)

1st Selection: (# 7) MIDDAY CRYSTAL BALL BEST BET *
Midday returns to the USA in her 4-yo season in excellent form to defend her 1-length victory over Pure Clan and Forever Together in the 2009 Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf. Trainer Henry Cecil, a 9-time champion trainer in England, brought Middday back to racing in May in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York. She would face 3 others. Midday raced last early on, made progress throughout, could not threaten arch rival Sariska but stayed on to finish a clear 2nd in a race she very much needed. Cecil would give Midday 79 days to recover before spotting her in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood, facing a very competitive field. On this day Midday would stalk the leaders, respond when asked and move to the lead 2 furlongs out. She dug in and re-rallied when challenged by Stacellita and Antara, forging clear from between these rivals to earn the victory while drifting out to her left. Midday was brought back on a short 19 days rest for the Group 1 Darley Yorkshire Oaks on August 10. True to her running style, Midday stalked behind the strung out trio of leaders in the early going, moved to trail only the leader, powered to the lead 2 furlongs out and kept on strongly in full command while drifting out again to her left then back in again in pursuit of the wire. The very good Sarisaka was in the field but refused the break. With that one out of the race, on this day Midday defeated the remaining group of modestly talented runners with complete authority. Midday would face her toughest challenge of this racing season on September 12 against a quality field of 11 at Longchamps in the Group 1 Qatar Prix Vermeille. Here Midday faced an unbeaten Prix Diane winner in Sarafina, Andre Fabre-trained Group 1 winner Plumania and arch rival Sariska. Regular rider Tom Queally placed Midday in 4th early on behind moderate fractions set by Sarafina’s stable mate. Plumania forged to the front when that one stopped. Midday, angled out and, once in full stride, she went past Plumania, again attempting to drift but recovering nicely, and on to a clear win over that one and a fast-closing Sarafina who had too much late running to do. This effort should set Midday up perfectly for the Filly and Mare Turf, the race she has been pointed for all season. Midday appears to be holding her top form. An important side note with respect to Euro invaders lies in how they train. Euros train to handle courses which require the conditioning and stamina to handle uphill runs to the straight vs. training over the flat as we do here in the States. Four prep wins, all Group 1 races, have this filly ready to fire.

2nd Selection (# 1) PLUMANIA
Plumania is a quality 4-yo turf filly in the capable care of French turf legend Andre Fabre. Plumania, in racing consistently well but without winning, has labored in the shadows of top class Euro turf runners. In her 3-yo season she raced behind multiple Group 1 winners Stacelita and Dar Re Mi among others, earning a race record of 6-0-2-3. Throughout her career, Plumania had never finished worse that 5th, racing competitively over courses labeled “good”, “good-soft” and “soft.” Never worse than 5th, that is, until her last, a dismal failure in the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe. Fabre appears to have set his sights for Plumaina on the Breeders Cup. He has brought her to this point by racing her against increasingly competitive fields. Plumania returned from an October vacation in an unlisted Stake. Never having won off a layoff in the past, a 4th place finish was neither unexpected nor discouraging. A month later she returned to face Group 3 competition, finishing 4th after having secured a lead she could not hold. Third race back after a layoff often leads to a strong effort, and three weeks later Fabre placed her against Group 2 runners in the Prix Corrida. Plumania, facing a short field of 5 others, showed improved speed, quickened powerfully and drew off to a comfortable lead. Fabre now had his runner ready for top competition and placed her in the Group 1 Grand Prix De Saint-cloud. Here Plumania faced the strongest field of the season and managed to hold on for an impressive win over the very good colt Youmzain and the previously unbeaten Daryakana. Fabre’s schedule was executed masterfully. Plumania earned her first Group 1 victory and a rest to prepare for the biggest races of the fall season. Fabre gave Plumania six weeks rest before entering in a “key” Arc prep, the Group 1 Prix Vermeille. In her best performance of the season, Plumania raced with the early pace, stayed on well but was unable to hold off a fresh runner in the lightly-raced the very sharp 4-yo filly Midday, losing by a ½ -length. Plumania would run back in the in the prestigious Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe on what for Euros is short rest. There are few, if any, races in the world more difficult to win than the Arc. Factors such as field size, condition of the ground, and trip often determine the winner. I don’t believe Fabre expected Plumania to win the Arc. I’m certain he expected better than finishing 16 of 19 but was using the Arc as a prep for the Breeders Cup. The fact that Fabre ships to race in the Breeders Cup makes Plumania’s last race a complete throw out. He would not ship if he thought the Arc failure was in any way physical. Arc winners have a dismal Breeders Cup record, but Arc non-winners and also-rans have fared much better. Additionally, Plumania will face rival Midday again. Fabre must believe he has a fair chance at turning the tables on that one. Plumania possesses tactical speed and the ability to quicken. She will be a fair odds contender. I expect Plumania to deliver a top effort in the Filly and Mare Turf. I trust Fabre to have her ready.

3rd Selection (# 10) RED DESIRE
Red Desire is a quality 4-yo filly who has faced tough competition in very large fields throughout her racing career. At 3, Red Desire won the Group 1 Shuka Sho at 10-furlongs and finished third in the Group 1 Japan Cup to 2-time Japanese Horse of the Year, Vodka. Prior to those races, she had been a consistent performer in Group 1 company trading victories with the very good Buena Vista. Red Desire made her 4-yo debut in Dubai over the new Tapeta synthetic surface at Maydan Racecourse with an upset win over Gloria De Campaneo in the Group 2 Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (Derrinstown). Gloria De Campaneo, a 7-yo Brazilian-bred road warrior who has won on three continents, came back out of that race to win the $10 million Group 1 Dubai World. On this day Red Desire would rally from far back for a narrow neck win. Racing back on short rest in the Dubai World Cup, Red Desire would disappoint. However, jockey Cristophe Soumillion employed a change of tactics, hustling Red Desire from the gate seeking forward positioning, leaving nothing for the run to the wire in what was a disappointing effort. Perhaps it was the quick turnaround, as Red Desire had never raced back on such short rest, or the change of tactics or both that resulted in the worst performance of her career. Trainer Mikio Matsunaga returned Red Desire to Japan to begin what appears to be a measured preparation for the Breeders Cup. First, she was given a 2-month freshening. In May he brought her back at 8 furlongs, a distance at which she had won but is clearly not her best distance. Then, Matsunaga put her up for 5-months before wisely shipping Red Desire to the states for a run over American turf in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl at Belmont Park. Run over a boggy, yielding turf course in which stretch-running Gozzip Girl became the unlikely pace setter. The pace was glacially slow and the field remains tightly bunched. The pedestrian pace had Jockey Kent Desormeaux and Red Desire close-up along the inside tracking the soft pace. Leaving the backstretch Desormeaux was bothered and waited briefly before moving Red Desire out and between horses passing the tiring leader. Red Desire would finish well but lose the dash to the wire in an effort that is better than it looks on paper.

4th Selection (# 3) MISS KELLER
Miss Keller’s 2nd place finish in the Grade 1 E P Taylor at Woodbine warrants consideration here. This 4-yo daughter of European Champion and classic winner Montjeu is a half sister to several Group stakes-placed runners in Europe. She raced in Ireland through her early 3-yo season before being sent to the capable of hands of Roger Attfield. This is a filly who handles shipping, handles most turf course conditions and is dead game. Her style is to lay back of mid-pack but not at the rear and make one run. I think her most impressive race of the year came in the Grade 2 Ballston at Saratoga where she closed ground against the grain of an incredibly speed biased inner turf course, beaten less than 2-lengths. She followed that effort with a win in the 9 furlong Canadian at Woodbine and then came the E P Taylor. The E P Taylor brought together a good field. Facing several European second stringers who had either taken turns beating one another or were soundly beaten by tougher competition, Miss Keller beat all but Reggane, missing by a length. Reggane was dismissed by bettors at 10-1 off a loss to one in here, but she looked the classiest, having finished only 2-lengths behind the top Euro duo of Stacelita and Antara two races back. Miss Keller has raced over Churchill turf on two occasions and can be given excuses for both efforts. In the first, she was kept on the pace. Since that time, they have changed her racing tactics. In the second, she caught a yielding turf course and traffic while finishing 2nd. Miss Keller will fire on Friday with a good chance to make the exotics.

5th Selection (# 6) HARMONIOUS
Harmonious is a 3-yo filly that has done nothing close to wrong in a 5-race career. She has been nothing short of brilliant since switching to turf. Zenyatta’s trainer John Shireffs knows a thing about keeping quality horses in top form. Harmonious had raced monthly since her debut race going 6.5 furlongs on synthetics at Hollywood Park. At 34-1 she beat 4 horses. The betting public made Harmonious, a daughter of top turf sire Dynaformer, the favorite when she switched to turf next out. She did not disappoint, winning easily under Mike Smith. The strength of the win was legitimized when two runners came back to break their maidens going turf routes. Harmonious met and handled a weak 1-other than field when stretched to 9 furlongs next out, before stepping up into a Grade 1 stake and stretching to 10 furlongs in the American Oaks. The pace in that race was strong and Harmonious handled both the distance and the field with consummate ease. A strong field assembled for the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks on August 21. Harmonious would face a multiple stakes winner in Evening Jewel and an improving Grade 2 winning filly in the Roger Attfield trained Perfect Shirl. Jockey Mike Smith would have Harmonious too far back off the pace with too much late running to do. She finished powerfully but ran out of race track, unable to catch Evening Jewel. These rivals would meet again seven weeks later in the Grade 2 QE II Cup going 9 furlongs at Keeneland. On this occasion, jockey Joel Rosario employed a change of tactics, keeping Harmonious up close to the leader, throughout. He asked her to move nearing the eight pole and she accelerated away from the field to a decisive win. No American-based 3-yo has won this race. That is not to say that 3-yos cannot win. Harmonious, however, is talented and improving. She is in the hands of a talented conditioner. She has tactical speed and good late kick. She gives experience to several European rivals today, while trying a new distance. There are questions but plenty of upside here.

WAGERING STRATEGY:
* Daily Double 7-10
* Smaller Daily Doubles 7-1, 7-11
We have already 'keyed' our selection, (7)MIDDAY, in a Pick 4 wager. IF that wager is no longer
alive, then we might want to now 'key' her in a Trifecta:
* $1 Trifecta: 7 over 1-3-6-10 over 1-3-6-10 = $12
* $0.50 Trifecta: 7 over 1-10 over ALL = $18 for a $1 wager

(RACE 10) LADIES CLASSIC (Post time 7:30 ET)

1st Selection: (# 10) BLIND LUCK
Few thoroughbreds are capable of carrying their talent and abilities from track-to-track with near equal success. Blind Luck, in her short career, has managed to win at eight different racing venues: Calder Race Course, Del Mar, Santa Anita Race Course, Hollywood Park, Oaklawn Park, Churchill Downs, Delaware Park, and Saratoga Race Course. She has done so over fast and sloppy dirt tracks, and over every California version of synthetics! She carries her track and she is tough as nails. Blind Luck was in the care of trainer James Hatcher when she debuted in a field of 10 on June 9, 2009 at Calder going 4.5f in a $40k maiden claimer. I’m not sure if the connections had any inkling of what they had or if they were just trying to score out on the bet! Off at odds of 6-1, Blind Luck broke last but won by and astonishing 13 ½ lengths! To no one’s surprise, she was privately purchased and sent to Jerry Hollendorfer in California. Entered next in a 5 ½ furlong Starter Allowance she handled the synthetic surface and again dusted rivals. A strong late rally in the 7 furlong Grade 1 Darley Debutante earned her a spot in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf, her first try around 2-turns. Racing nearer the rear in a tight pack, Blind Luck drew within a length at the eighth pole to run down rivals and win going away over synthetic at Santa Anita, stamping herself a potential favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly. Even the classiest of rear-half runners are vulnerable to pace and trip. In the 2009 Juvenile Fillies Blind Luck was steadied and forced back early on. She made her strong run only to fall short 3/4s to rival She Be Wild, a good trip winner. Blind Luck would complete her 2-yo season with another decisive win by 7-lengths in the 1 Hollywood Starlet but finish a distant second to She Be Wild in Eclipse balloting. Blind Luck, a one-run closer with courage and determination, has spent her 3-yo season racing in Grades Stakes. In the Grade1 Las Virgennes, her 3-yo debut, a heavily favored Blind Luck overcame a slow pace to earn a short neck win in running down rivals Evening Jewel and Switch. As I mentioned earlier, class can sometimes be compromised and defeated by trip and/or pace. Blind Luck, forced to race against the slowest pace of her career going 8.5 furlongs in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, rallied boldly but had too much to do losing by 2 necks in a blanket finish at odds-on. After an easy win over 3 rivals in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Blind Luck shipped to Churchill Downs to face a large field for the Kentucky Oaks. That heat produced the fastest pace Blind Luck faced thus far in her career. Last of 14 at the break, Blind Luck gained 7 lengths to sit 9th in the pack 4 ½ lengths off the lead at the second call. She sustained her run through the lane to get up, narrowly earning the victory by a nose. In winning, Blind Luck demonstrated the ability to maneuver through the large field she will face in the Ladies Classic. Blind Luck would receive a well-deserved 2-month freshening before returning in the Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks. Sitting last in a field of 5 in the Santa Anita Oaks, Blind Luck was unable to run down fractions of 25.20 and 50 flat, finishing powerfully but beaten 1 ¼ lengths. The July 10 Delaware Oaks would be run over a sloppy track. After the break, Blind Luck took what has become a more Zenyatta-like position at the back of the pack with Havre De Grace stalking outside the leader. Blind Luck made a strong move leaving the backstretch, sustaining that move through the lane to nail a very game Havre De Grace. The two would meet again for the 10 furlong Grade One Alabama Stakes at Saratoga against the very good but now retired Devil May Care. In that race Blind Luck went to post as the 9-5 second choice. Favored Devil May Care failed to fire and the 6-1 Havre De Grace stalked a moderate but honest pace from inside before making the lead leaving the far turn. Blind Luck rallied determinedly to defeat Havre De Grace by a short neck. Switch to Philly Park on October 2nd for the Grade 2 Fitz Dixon Cotillion going 8.5f. Again, Blind Luck was forced to sit too far back behind soft fractions and, this time, was left with too much to do. Despite finishing with a flourish, Havre De Grace was able to hold on and avenge her loss to Blind Luck in the Alabama with a short neck win of her own. Blind Luck is a quality filly possessing great courage and determination. Her last 12 races have been in Grade 1 and Grade 2 Stakes Company. She fires in every race; rivals know she will be running at them. The Cotillion appears to have been a perfect prep for Blind Luck setting her up for a top effort in the Ladies Classic. She is on a pattern of stretching from 8.5 furlongs to longer distances. In the Cotillion she finished powerfully against soft fractions. She is sure to get at least an honest pace in the Ladies Classic. Equally important is the fact that she owns the all-important win at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Oaks at the 9 furlong Ladies Classic distance.

2nd Selection: (# 1) LIFE AT TEN
Life At Ten, a late developing daughter of Malibu Moon, was purchased privately after failing to win in her 2-yo in 2007 and turned over to Todd Pletcher. She broke her maiden in her second start but was unable to get through her other-than condition till the fall of her 4-yo season. Pletcher, after sustaining several narrow losses with Life At Ten, shipped to race her in the east. He turned her back to 7-furlong sprints where she ran well but not well enough to win. He even gave her a try over turf that resulted in a dismal effort. In December of 2009 Pletcher entered Life At Ten in an overnight stakes route on the Aqueduct inner track. Under jockey David Cohen Life At Ten stalked up-close to the pace and forged to the lead, defeating a solid field of 8. While Life At Ten did break her maiden over the synthetic at Hollywood Park, I feel the early route losses while racing upclose to the pace were the result of racing over synthetic surfaces other than Hollywood, surfaces which take a toll on early pace horses or she just could not handle well enough to win. The switch to dirt and return to fronthalf stalking tactics resulted in a 5-race win streak that included a stalking win in the Grade 3 Sixty Sails Stakes at Hawthorne, wire-to-wire wins in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes at Belmont and the 10-furlong Delaware Handicap. Life At Ten took that win streak to Saratoga Race Course on August 29 for the Grade 1 Personal Ensign to face 2009 Horse of the Year Rachael Alexandra. In the short field of 5, tactics and strategy would determine the outcome. Would rivals with similar running styles duel from the start? Would one take back? Regular rider John Velazquez, either by instruction or circumstance, opted to send Life At Ten to immediately challenge Rachael when he saw Calvin Borel put her on the lead. Without options, Life At Ten was then forced to press throughout the early going and stalk the strongest pace of her career against the reigning Horse of the Year. She weakened late but set the table for rank outsider Persistently to pick up the pieces and defeat the soon-to-be retired Rachael Alexandra. After that grueling affair, Pletcher gave Life At Ten the month of September to recover, pointing to the Beldame at Belmont with the Ladies Classic on his calendar. Life At Ten returned on October 2 to stalk soft fractions, move powerfully and decisively leaving the backstretch and defeat 4 rivals, including Persistently. Life At Ten appears to be holding the good form she exhibited prior to the loss in the Personal Ensign. The Beldame win suggests she has recovered and rebounded from that grueling battle with Rachael Alexandra. A multiple winner at the 9-furlong distance of the Ladies Classic, she has the ability to stalk up-close and does not need the lead to win. Should the track come up wet, Life At Ten has handled a wet track, albeit sprinting.

3rd Selection (# 11) HAVRE DE GRACE
Havre De Grace is one of several very tough 3-yo fillies in this field. After failing to break her maiden in an offthe- turfer going 8 furlongs at Delaware Park, this filly is, remarkably, two necks and a short nose away from a 6-race win streak! Harve De Grace has been hooked late by arch rival Blind Luck in their last three outings. She has never yielded, battling through every inch of the lane. She is as game a filly as I have seen and, therefore, cannot be discounted. Havre De Grace suffered a nose loss to No Such Word in the Go For Wand Stakes at Delaware Park on June 5. Jeremy Rose took her from the break in post 2 to the 4-path for the run around the turn and down the backstretch. The early fractions were soft and I can see Rose not wanting to be boxed inside and behind tiring horses. However, Rose kept peeking back, focused on Grade 2 stakes-placed rival No Such Word as the field ran on. Leaving the turn these two hooked up and raced in tandem to the wire, with Harve De Grace weakening late to lose a nose. Havre De Grace did not receive the best ride from Rose. However, she was not disgraced in defeat. The rivalry between Havre De Grace and Blind Luck began in the Grade 2 Delaware Oaks. In that race, Rose rode more aggressively with Havre De Grace, without peeking for rivals, only to be run down very late by Blind Luck. In the Alabama Stakes, Rose took Havre De Grace from post 6 to the rail immediately after the break, assuring a perfect inside trip and every chance to make the 10 furlongs. Rose moved off the rail when rival Devil May Care made her move to the lead and out brushed that one to the lead. Again Rose remained focused on riding his own horse through to the wire but was unable to hold off Blind Luck’s late charge. These two met again, cutting back to 8.5 furlongs in the Fritz Dixon Cotillion at Parx Racing. On this day Havre De Grace received a weight concession of 10 lbs. The pace of this race went to Havre De Grace’s advantage, near constant velocity early fractions of 23.88, 23.40, and 23.56. Stalking this pace, Havre De Grace moved boldly past the weakening pace setter getting the jump on Blind Luck, who showed her determination and class closing boldly but sustaining a neck loss. This daughter of Breeders Cup Classic winner St. Liam has strong tactical speed and staying power. She is capable of sitting just off the pace and moving on the pace setter. While never having raced at today’s 9 furlong distance, Havre De Grace is proven beyond, sustaining that nose loss to Blind Luck in the Grade 1 Alabama at 10 furlongs. Havre De Grace is a talented filly in the care of a top conditioner in Tony Dutrow. She is a May foal and still has room for growth, development and improvement. She has, however, enjoyed near perfect trips in her last three races. The Ladies Classic field is deep and contentious. Havre De Grace will, in my opinion, track the strongest pace she has faced to date. She has been battle tested and toughened; I am certain she will contend, but to win she must receive another good, if not perfect, trip and a Hall of Fame ride from Jeremy Rose.

4th Selection (# 8) UNRIVALED BELLE
Unrivaled Belle has been a gem of consistency. This 4-yo daughter of Unbridled’s Song, out of the Grade 2 stakes winner Queenie Belle, has finished off-the-board only once in her 11-race career, and that race was contested over the quirky synthetic surface at Santa Anita. On dirt she is 10-5-5-0, losing a neck in her 6.5f debut and winning her only other sprint effort, a 7 furlong 1-other than allowance condition. While four of her five wins have come at route distances shorter than 9 furlongs, Unrivaled Belle’s 9 furlong efforts have come against top company. Following the failure in the Grade 2 Lacanada on synthetic, trainer Bill Mott immediately shipped Unrivaled Belle back east to his Gulfstream Park string for the Grade 3 Rampart. Unrivaled Belle, a runner with good tactical speed, relished the return to her favorite surface and ran off to a gate-to-wire victory. The field was not stellar, but she disposed of that group impressively. Six weeks later Mott shipped to Churchill Downs and sent his charge 8.5 furlongs in the Grade 2 Latroien. Here Unrivaled Belle would meet reigning Horse of the Year Rachael Alexandra in that one’s long anticipated return to racing. On this day Unrivaled Belle tracked modest fractions set by Rachael but was sharp enough to forge on through the lane and gain a narrow head victory at 9-1. Off the upset win Mott gave Unrivaled Belle six weeks rest. She returned June 12 in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps to race again at 8.5 furlongs facing the Todd Pletcher-trained Life At Ten, an improving 5-yo mare who had won five straight against lesser. Life At Ten, despite breaking awkwardly, fired off the vacation, setting strong fractions. Unrivaled Belle, tracking and forcing the fastest pace of her career, was unable to gain ground while holding well to preserve 2nd. The Grade 1 Ruffian Stakes going 9 furlongs at Saratoga was a “Win and Your In” Breeders Cup race. Unrivaled Belle, sent to post as the 6-5 favorite, bumped hard and stumbling badly at the start, recovered to chase another Todd Pletcher runner in speedster Malibu Moon. These rivals raced 1-2 around the oval with Unrivaled Belle giving futile chase, finishing 2nd clear by almost 10-lengths. On October 2 Unrivaled Belle and Life At Ten squared off again in the Grade 1 Beldame a field of five that included the upset winner of the Personal Ensign, Persistently, and two others that were hopelessly overmatched. Unrivaled Belle stalked the modest pace of 17-1 Queen Martha, inherited the lead from that one but was unable to hold of the strong stretch run of Life At Ten. Despite the hype and glory of defeating what we now know to have been a diminished Rachael Alexandra, Unrivaled Belle has not been able to beat Life At Ten and Malibu Prayer, rivals she will face today. While I am concerned that she has not been able to gain ground in the stretch when facing these, Unrivaled Belle has upside for further development and improvement. The fact that she has not lost ground in the lane is of equal importance, demonstrating heart and determination in all her races. She will have good tactical position in this race and, her win over the main track at Churchill Downs gives her an edge over several in this field. Unrivaled Belle may not win, but she will be a factor.

5th Selection (# 3) MALIBU PRAYER
Malibu Prayer, a speedy Robert Evans homebred, is a daughter of Malibu Moon, sire of 41 stakes winners. She is the first foal to race out of dam Grand Prayer, a stakes winner herself. Malibu Prayer is one of two in the field from trainer Todd Pletcher. Her connections campaign Quality Road. In all of her races, Malibu Prayer had raced as either an on-the-lead type or and early presser. In so doing, she has not won a race in which she was positioned further back that 2nd at the route pace call. She has never won sprinting and appears best at middle distance routes between 8 and 8.5 furlongs. Malibu Prayer has raced twice at today’s 9 furlong distance. As a 3-yo she ran 2nd in a 3-horse field against Horse of the Year Rachael Alexandra in the Grade 1 Mother Goose, beaten 19-lengths! In August of this year, Malibu Moon won the Grade 1 Ruffian Stakes at Saratoga, a “Win and Your In” race. There she defeated the consistent race mare Unrivaled Belle and four others. She owns an all-important win at the distance Malibu Prayer last raced at Monmouth Park in the Grade 2 Molly Pitcher at 8.5 furlongs. She broke well and was taken off the rail to stalk 46-1 rank outsider Stage Trick. She inhaled that one leaving the backstretch but was hooked by Just Jenda, a multiple winner at Monmouth Park who had beaten Malibu Prayer at 3 in the Monmouth Oaks. Pletcher has rested Malibu Prayer since the August 29th Molly Pitcher. Her race record shows her winning twice going a route of ground off layoffs. The win at the distance and win over the Churchill surface are big plusses going into this race. Speed is always dangerous; speed in the hands of Todd Pletcher even more dangerous. She won’t be alone on the lead, but she might be the speed of speeds.

WAGERING STRATEGY:
* Equal exacta box 1-10
* Exacta Part wheel: 1-10 over 8-11 = $8 for a $2 wager
* Small saver exactas 1-3, 10-3

Mike Dempsey

CD Race 5 Breeders' Cup Marathon G3 (4:10 ET)

#6 Gabriel's Hill 20/1
#4 Eldaafer 12/1
#12 A. U. Miner 9/2
#2 Prince Will I Am 4/1

#6 Gabriel's Hill caught a muddy track last out at Belmont Park against $100K optional claimers off a two month break and weakened to finish fourth after setting the early fractions. He finished behind a couple of these two back in the Greenwood Cup at Philly going 1 1/2 miles, unable to keep up in the stretch after setting the early fractions. His best recent effort was four back in the Brooklyn (G2) where he set a solid pace and held on gamely, beaten just a nose for the top spot by #10 Alcomo. This guy gets a good jock upgrade to the more patient Leparoux, and with the stretch out to 1 3/4 miles, the pace should be moderate and he may be able to steal it on the front. The six year old appears to have enough pedigree to handle the extra ground. He is by A.P. Indy out of the stakes winner Lailani ($748K), who won the Flower Bowl (G1) in 2001 at 1 1/4 miles on turf. He is in a capable barn with Seth Benzel, a former top assistant to Todd Pletcher. We should get a generous price on this guy.

#4 Eldaafer comes into the race off a sharp win in the Turfway Park Fall Championship (G3) going 1 1/2 miles over poly. He was beaten two lengths by our top pick in the Brooklyn back in June. This guy is also a son of A.P. Indy and is out of the stakes winner Habibti ($564K). Velazquez should have this guy in a good spot and his 12/1 ML looks more than fair.

#12 A.U. Miner made up some ground late to finish third in the Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2), missing the runner up spot to #8 Giant Oak by a neck. The duo earned solid figs in that outing, but watching the replay again, I just was not impressed. With Gomez picking up the mount on #8 Giant Oak, I think the price on the two is going to be on the light side.

#2 Prince Will I Am rolled home to win the Jamaica (G1) last out on turf going nine furlongs, but I am not sure he can show the same turn of foot over the main track at this distance. The winner seems likely to either be up front or more of a grinder type. Two have come out of the race to run back, both winning small stakes. Fifth place finisher Teaks North won the Big Brown at Monmouth Park and tenth place finisher Admiral Alex won the Arts and Letters at Belmont Park.

Wagering

WIN: #6 to win at 8/1 or better.

EX: 4,6 / 2,4,6,12

TRI: 4,6 / 2,4,6,12 / 2,4,6,7,9,12

ATS Lock Club

Race 5, 4:10pmET - Breeders' Cup Marathon
8 Giant Oak
12 A.U. Miner
7 Awesome Gem
10 Alcomo

Race 6, 4:50pmET - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
10 New Normal
8 Wyomia
7 Winter Memories
15 Nina Fever

Race 7, 5:30pmET - Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
7 Gabby’s Golden Gal
11 Jessica Is Back
4 Informaed Decision
12 Dubai Majesty

Race 8, 6:10pmET - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies
4 Awesome Feather
12 Tell A Kelly
9 Delightful Mary
8 A Z Warrior

Race 9, 6:50pmET - Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf
7 Midday
3 Miss Keller
8 Hot Cha Cha
2 Eclair De Lune

Race 10, 7:30pmET - Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic
10 Blind Luck
9 Acoma
8 Unrivaled Belle
11 Havre De Grace

Bet the Top Horse To Win.

Use all 4 horses in all your exotics (Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta boxes)

Mike Battaglia

Breeders' Cup Marathon (G3)

1 3/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Atoned Albarado R J Howard Neil J 126 LA 20-1
2 2 Prince Will I Am Castellano J J Nihei Michelle 122 LA 4-1
3 3 Million Seller Rose J Motion H Graham 123 LA 50-1
4 4 Eldaafer Velazquez J R Alvarado Diane 126 LA 12-1
5 5 Romp (ARG) Garcia M Mulhall Kristin 126 LA 50-1
6 6 Gabriel's Hill Leparoux J R Benzel Seth 126 LA 20-1
7 7 Awesome Gem Flores D R Dollase Craig 126 LA 7-2
8 8 Giant Oak Gomez G K Block Chris M 126 LA 4-1
9 9 Bright Horizon (GB) Murtagh J P O'Brien Aidan P 122 L 10-1
10 10 Alcomo (BRZ) Bejarano R Caramori Eduardo 126 LA 6-1
11 11 Precision Break Spencer J P Cole Paul F 126 L 15-1
12 12 A. U. Miner Borel C H Hanna Clark 126 LA 9-2

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / Pick 6 (Races 5-10) Jock Bet

Battaglias picks 12-2-10

#12 A.U Miner- Has shown big improvement since changing trainers. He came in here in the spring and won at 12-1 then missed by only 8 lengths to Blame in the Foster going a mile and an eighth. He came back to win a 250k one and a half mile race at Philly and just missed last out in the HAW Gold Cup. He will beat up on these.

6th (4:50)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2)

1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Dos Lunas Court J K Glenney John 122 Blk-On L 30-1
2 2 Tale Untold Moore R L Hannon Richard 122 L 15-1
3 3 Quiet Oasis (IRE) Dettori L Meehan Brian 122 L 8-1
4 4 Kathmanblu Leparoux J R McPeek Kenneth G 122 LA 10-1
5 5 Forest Legend Dominguez R A Oliver Victoria 122 LA 30-1
6 6 Arch Support Prado E S Contessa Gary C 122 L 20-1
7 7 Winter Memories Lezcano J Toner James J 122 LA 2-1
8 8 Wyomia Bejarano R Vella Daniel J 122 L 12-1
9 9 Fancy Point Desormeaux K J Phipps William 122 L 15-1
10 10 New Normal Castellano J J Frostad Mark 122 LA 10-1
11 11 More Than Real Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 10-1
12 12 Flood Plain (GB) Buick W Gosden John H M 122 20-1
13 13 Together (IRE) Murtagh J P O'Brien Aidan P 122 L 5-1
14 14 Allure d'Amour Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 15-1
15 AE Nina Fever Albarado R J Ward Wesley A 122 L 30-1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)

Battaglias picks 7-4-13-2

#7 Winter Memories- was the easiest kind of winner in her debut. She won going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf with plenty in reserve. She came back in the very tough grade III Grillo stake but won by 6 easy lengths in a race that has produced 4 next out winners. She has the class to keep on winning.

7th (5:30)
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (G1)

7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 My Jen Velazquez J R Kenneally Eddie 122 LA 15-1
2 2 Sara Louise Dettori L bin Suroor Saeed 124 L 15-1
3 3 Secret Gypsy Albarado R J Werner Ronny 124 LA 12-1
4 4 Informed Decision Leparoux J R Sheppard Jonathan E 124 LA 7-2
5 5 Evening Jewel Espinoza V Cassidy James 122 LA 15-1
6 6 Moontune Missy Garcia Alan Harty Eoin 124 LA 30-1
7 7 Gabby's Golden Gal Garcia M Baffert Bob 124 LA 15-1
8 8 Sweet August Moon Smith M E Koriner Brian 124 LA 30-1
9 9 Switch Rosario J Sadler John W 122 LA 20-1
10 10 Rinterval (IRE) Bejarano R Reed Eric R 124 LA 20-1
11 11 Jessica Is Back Castellano J J Wolfson Martin D 124 L 12-1
12 12 Dubai Majesty Theriot H J II Calhoun W. B 124 LA 6-1
13 13 Rightly So Velasquez C Dutrow Anthony W 124 L 3-1
14 14 Champagne d'Oro Mena M Guillot Eric 122 L 6-1
15 AE Tidal Pool Smith M E Lukas D Wayne 122 LA 30-1
16 AE First Passage Gomez G K Wolfson Martin D 124 L 30-1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / Pick 4 (Races 7-8-9-10)

Battaglias picks 4-13-12

#4 Informed Decision- 5 year old mare is said to have lost a step or two in her old age but she has been the best 7f filly in the country for 2 straight years. She won this race both times and was voted champion both years. She made a winning move but was blocked and still only missed by a length last out at KEE. She will use that as a solid tune up and should make it three in a row.

8th (6:10)
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)

1 1/16 Miles | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Indian Gracey Bejarano R Hollendorfer Jerry 122 LA 15-1
2 2 Theyskens' Theory Dettori L Meehan Brian 122 L 10-1
3 3 R Heat Lightning Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 4-1
4 4 Awesome Feather Sanchez J Gold Stanley I 122 L 6-1
5 5 Harlan's Ruby Leparoux J R McPeek Kenneth G 122 LA 15-1
6 6 Joyful Victory Dominguez R A Dutrow Anthony W 122 L 15-1
7 7 Izshelegal Smith M E Knight Terry 122 Blk-On L 30-1
8 8 A Z Warrior Garcia M Baffert Bob 122 LA 7-2
9 9 Delightful Mary Bridgmohan S X Casse Mark 122 LA 8-1
10 10 Believe in A. P. Gomez G K Dutrow, Jr. R E 122 L 15-1
11 11 Soundwave Albarado R J Werner Ronny 122 LA 20-1
12 12 Tell a Kelly Borel C H Sadler John W 122 LA 9-2
13 13 Jordy Y Rosario J Catalano Wayne M 122 LA 30-1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10)

Battaglias picks 8-4-3

#8 A Z Warrior- traveled East to make her first ever dirt run and she made it a no contest. She won the grade I Frizette with the jock taking her in hand late. She will love this dirt course and will show her stuff again today.

9th (6:50)
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1)

1 3/8 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Plumania (GB) Peslier O Fabre Andre 124 8-1
2 2 Eclair de Lune (GER) Alvarado J McAnally Ronald 124 L 15-1
3 3 Miss Keller (IRE) Castellano J J Attfield Roger L 124 LA 8-1
4 4 Keertana Lezcano J Proctor Thomas F 124 LA 30-1
5 5 Shared Account Prado E S Motion H Graham 124 LA 30-1
6 6 Harmonious Rosario J Shirreffs John 121 LA 6-1
7 7 Midday (GB) Queally T P Cecil Henry 124 L 6-5
8 8 Hot Cha Cha Graham J Sims Phillip A 124 LA 30-1
9 9 Hibaayeb (GB) Dettori L bin Suroor Saeed 121 LA 8-1
10 10 Red Desire (JPN) Desormeaux K J Matsunaga Mikio 124 LA 8-1
11 11 Forever Together Napravnik A R Sheppard Jonathan E 124 LA 10-1

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta

Battaglias picks 7-6-1

#7 Midday (GB)- looks awesome and may be unbeatable today. We can't find any weakness in her amour and she looks like the safest bet on the card. This one has a 7-3-3 record from 15 group races and carries equal weight as her rivals today after spotted many pounds and winning easily in England.

10th (7:30)
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (G1)

1 1/8 Miles | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

Prg. # PP Horse Jockey Trainer Wt. Claim $ Equip. Med. ML
1 1 Life At Ten Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 124 LA 7-2
2 2 It's Tea Time Leparoux J R Arnold George R II 122 LA 15-1
3 3 Malibu Prayer Gomez G K Pletcher Todd A 124 LA 8-1
4 4 Milwaukee Appeal Bejarano R Fairlie Scott H 124 LA 30-1
5 5 Acting Happy Lezcano J Dutrow, Jr. R E 122 Blk-On L 20-1
6 6 Persistently Garcia Alan McGaughey III C R 124 LA 12-1
7 7 Seeking the Title Borel C H Stewart Dallas 122 LA 30-1
8 8 Unrivaled Belle Desormeaux K J Mott William I 124 LA 8-1
9 9 Acoma Albarado R J Carroll David 124 LA 20-1
10 10 Blind Luck Rosario J Hollendorfer Jerry 122 LA 9-5
11 11 Havre de Grace Rose J Dutrow Anthony W 122 L 4-1

Special Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Super High Five

Battaglias picks 2-10-11

#2 It's Tea Time- This filly ran a whole lot better in the Spinster then the chart shows. She had the impossible #1 post at Keeneland and although the jock tried hard to get her off the deep, dead rail, he could not get her any racing room until midstretch. She made up 8 lengths once she got free and finished 4th. She is good right now and can easily upset this field.