Wizard
136th Running of the KY Derby
Churchill Downs Race 11 - 1 1/4m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $2,000,000. Post Time: ET
Race Synopsis
The Kentucky Derby almost always features a fast early pace anyways, but this year could be even quicker and more contested than normal. Super Saver, Line Of David, American Lion, Conveyance, and Sidney’s Candy all like the lead, and even if a couple of them try to rate a bit, then there are still 3 speed horses up front that will be ensuring a hot and contested pace. Some stalkers in this race will have a legitimate shot at the win if they can relax while not getting too close to a hot pace, but it is the closers who figure to have the advantage given the expected swift fractions. With wet weather expected on Friday and into Saturday, those who have displayed an affinity for an ‘off’ track may also have an advantage.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 LOOKIN AT LUCKY 3/1
2 ICE BOX 10/1
3 NOBLE'S PROMISE 12/1
4 SUPER SAVER 15/1
5 LINE OF DAVID 30/1
6 STATELY VICTOR 30/1
7 AMERICAN LION 30/1
8 DEAN'S KITTEN 50/1
9 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME 50/1
10 PADDY O'PRADO 20/1
11 DEVIL MAY CARE 10/1
12 CONVEYANCE 12/1
13 JACKSON BEND 15/1
14 MISSION IMPAZIBLE 20/1
15 DISCREETLY MINE 30/1
16 AWESOME ACT 10/1
17 DUBLIN 12/1
18 BACKTALK 50/1
19 HOMEBOYKRIS 50/1
20 SIDNEY'S CANDY 5/1
First Selection: (2) ICE BOX (Zito Nicholas P/Lezcano Jose)
The one thing you know about Ice Box is that he can win over a distance of ground. All 3 of his starts as a 3 year old have been at 1-1/8 miles. He was all out to prevail over four rivals in his 3 year old debut at Gulfstream returning from nearly a 3 month layoff. In his second start of 2010, Ice Box ran deceptively well when fifth to Eskendereya in a very fast renewal of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth stakes. Although beaten by 12 lengths, Ice Box was very slow away from the gate and then proceeded to race wide all the way after breaking from the difficult outermost post. What went largely unnoticed in that race is that he made a bold middle move while hung out about 4 or 5 wide on the far turn, losing lots of ground. The move was also premature, as Ice Box flattened out in the final furlong. These factors pointed out a “better than it looks” performance.
I must admit that even off the trip I saw that day, I did not think Ice Box was going to win the Florida Derby. When he rallied from last of eleven to win by a nose over Pleasant Prince, I knew I made a mistake in underestimating his chances, especially since he was a huge price (20-1) and trained by Nick Zito who has made a name for himself upsetting Grade 1 races with big price horses. Ice Box did benefit from a strong pace, the tiring speed in front of him, and from having two good races over the track. However, his final furlong in :12-3/5 was quite good, and he showed lots of heart in out-gaming two rivals in the final 100 yards. Had the race been longer, I believe that his margin of victory would have increased gradually, as he was showing no signs of slowing down. It was a fairly weak Florida Derby field, but then again, this crop as a whole is on the weak side, and few ‘prep’ races have come up strong.
Ice Box has shown some versatility in his 7-race career, but does seem to have found his niche as a late runner. Although 2 of his 3 wins have come stalking the leaders, I don’t expect these tactics to be employed in the Derby. Ice Box will be taken far off the pace, saving ground from his inside post, and make one late run, which worked to perfection in the Florida Derby. This could very well be the winning formula, as there is a lot of early speed in the race, and the pace is almost always fast and furious anyways in the 20-horse Derby field. With the scratch of Eskendereya, I don’t think that many other horses will be finishing as fast as Ice Box can, and if there’s any question about his breeding for 1-1/4 miles, then here is some evidence in his favor. His dam was a G2 winner going 1-1/2 miles on turf, and she also won on dirt, and the second dam is a half-sister to 1995 Kentucky Derby winner Spend A Buck. At expected big odds off a morning line of 10-1, I think Ice Box has a very legitimate chance to upset this big Derby field.
Second Selection: (1) LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Baffert Bob/Gomez G K)
If not for a head defeat after a tough trip in last years BC Juvenile, and then major trouble on the turn in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Lookin At Lucky would be a perfect 8 for 8. He would probably have been second choice to Eskendereya, but now is expected to be the favorite.
Lookin At Lucky, last year’s Juvenile Champion Male, is as tough as nails. A horse can look him in the eyes in the stretch and he snatches the victory from the jaws of defeat. If you put a line through his third place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, in his 6 wins, Lookin At Lucky’s margin of victory is a total of 5 lengths plus a head. That indicates one thing. He does just enough to get the job done. It is interesting to note, that despite a stellar 2 year old campaign, trainer Bob Baffert added blinkers when he made his 3 year old debut in the Grade 2 Rebel. I presume it was to get him to focus more late in the race, but whatever the reason was, there is no indication that they helped or hindered. That’s just the type of horse Lookin At Lucky is-just put him on the racetrack and he will give you his all, and that almost always is just enough to prevail.
With all these attributes, there’s certainly a lot to like about his chances to win the Kentucky Derby. It would be folly for me to say he would surprise me if he were to take down top prize, but I do have a few concerns. As far as pedigree goes, Lookin At Lucky does not really have ideal breeding for the taxing 1-1/4 mile distance. His sire, Smart Strike, who was a win machine, never won beyond 1-1/16 miles, but he has produced several long winded horses such as the multiple Grade 1 winner Curlin and champion turf horse English Channel, who both won at 1-1/4 miles and beyond. Lookin At Lucky’s dam side is more slanted towards success in sprints and up to 1-1/8 miles. After that, he will need to rely on his class to get him home. His mother was a sprinter but did produce Kensei, who won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga going 9 furlongs last year. If you go further back on the dam side, it’s the same story.
The other concern is that Lucky will have to break from post 1, which is very tough in the Derby, with 19 rivals breaking outside of him. Inside posts are not bad for horses that take back off the pace and make one late run, or even for a speedball who would be gunning for the lead, but a tactical horse like Lookin At Lucky is apt to get buried down inside somewhere in the middle of the field, having to deal with traffic the entire time. The potential will be there for him getting blocked when the speed starts to tire, and all in all there are a lot more potential headaches when breaking from post 1 as opposed to breaking more in the middle of the field.
Bob Baffert has won the Derby three times, and missed a fourth by a nose, so he knows how to get a horse to peak for this race, and I believe that Lookin At Lucky is set to peak. This is his third start off the 3-month layoff, often a horse’s best performance, and since shipping to Churchill Downs he’s been training brilliantly, including a remarkable work this week. He has the services of 2-time Eclipse Award winning jockey Garrett Gomez, and there are fewer anywhere that can remain as cool as he can under the pressure of a 20-horse field in the most important race of the year.
Third Selection: (20) SIDNEY'S CANDY (Sadler John W/Talamo Joseph)
Jockey Joe Talamo, who has ridden Sidney’s Candy in all 6 starts, was scheduled to ride the favorite in last year’s Kentucky Derby, I Want Revenge, who unfortunately was a late scratch the morning of the race. Talamo might get redemption a year later aboard this talented colt, who is a major player.
As a 2 year old, Sidney’s Candy broke his maiden in his second start at Del Mar. The pace he chased and the final time were one of the fastest by a juvenile running 5.5 furlongs in the country. When you factor in that the race was run over a synthetic surface, you have to think that he might have run faster over a conventional dirt course. It has been found that speed figures earned on track surfaces like Pro Ride, Polytrack and Tapeta, earn slower numbers than when these horses switch to dirt. If that’s the case, then Sidney’s Candy may have run the quickest time of them all.
Sidney’s Candy was given 4 months off after the big win, resurfacing in an allowance race at Santa Anita. He hopped at the start, then rushed up to chase a fast pace before tiring. His race was a bit disappointing, beaten 7 lengths as the 3-5 favorite. Trainer John Sadler then gave him 47 days off to prepare for a start in the Grade 2 San Vincente at Santa Anita. I found it interesting that Sadler would step him up into a tough stakes race off his defeat in allowance company. Sadler obviously knew that something went amiss that day. He had Sidney’s Candy razor sharp for his stakes engagement and the result was an authoritative win, once again in fast time. 26 days later, Sidney’s Candy was victorious in the Grade 2 San Felipe. He answered the question that day as to whether or not he could handle 2 turns against the toughest field he had ever faced.
The true test to see if Sidney’s Candy was a major Kentucky Derby contender would come in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, where he would face last year’s 2 year old champion Lookin At Lucky. In his most impressive victory to date, Sidney’s Candy proved he was one of the best 3 year olds in the country with a resounding 4-1/2 length victory at the 1-1/8 miles distance.
There has been much written that Sidney’s Candy is a “bet against” in the Kentucky Derby because of the perfect set ups he has had in his last 2 starts going a distance of ground. In both races he was able to get clear leads while setting slow paces. Pundit’s claim that when faced with much faster fractions in the Derby, he will be unable to carry his speed 1-1/4 miles. Many expect him to fade in the final furlong. I beg to differ. Even though Sidney’s Candy went wire to wire all 3 starts this year, who is to say he cannot stalk the leaders and then pounce on the far turn and dig in gamely through the long stretch at Churchill. He rated successfully in his first 2 starts, even though they were sprints. The Wizard is not quick to dismiss his chances, particularly since his top-class trainer, John Sadler, has stated definitively that he believes Candy can stalk successfully in this race. It’s hard to say what would have happened if Lookin For Lucky did not check sharply on the turn, drop back, and re-rally for third, in the Santa Anita Derby, but it is my contention that Sidney’s Candy would have won anyway, even though the margin would have probably been less than his 4-1/2 length victory. Although I do think Sidney’s Candy will run a big race in the Derby, my enthusiasm is tempered by his draw way out in post 20. Unless Joe Talamo can pull some magic out of his jockey’s cap, then Candy is almost destined for a wide trip, and losing a lot of ground on the turns in the Derby is not usually a formula for success.
Trainer John Sadler is one of the finest conditioners in the U.S. He does excellent work with horses of every class level, and has been winning training titles in Southern California. Sadler is also tremendous developing young horses. A case in point is this colt. Sidney’s Candy has a powerful, long stride, which is conducive to being successful at longer distances. Sidney’s Candy’s sire Candy Ride won all 6 starts career starts, and he broke the track record at 1-1/4 miles in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Candy Ride was as versatile and classy a runner as they come. He handled grass, dirt, and any kind of distance. The second dam Exchange was a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner, winning at distances from 6-1/2 furlongs to 1-1/2 miles. She handled any type of surface. Based on all of these important factors, Sidney’s Candy must be considered a major player in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Fourth Selection: (4) SUPER SAVER (Pletcher Todd A/Borel C H)
With the defections of Eskendereya, Rule, and Interactif, Super Saver may now be the best hope from Todd Pletcher’s army of runners that was initially entered in the Derby. In his debut he was a well-beaten second when sprinting over a wet track, beaten by another Pletcher Derby entrant, Discreetly Mine. Super Saver then broke his maiden impressively in his second start. He enjoyed the stretch to a mile in the slop. Off that victory, Pletcher saw enough potential in Super Saver to wheel him back 1 month later in the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont at the same distance. This was his first start on a dry track, and despite a fourth place finish, Super Saver ran very well. He set a strong pace from the start, repulsing several challenges, before giving ground grudgingly in the late stages. It is interesting to note that both the winner, Homeboykris and second place finisher, Discreetly Mine, are also in the Derby field.
Super Saver’s coming out party came 49 days later in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. This would be his first start around two turns and beyond a mile. Super Saver made full use of his good early speed, clearing early from his advantageous inside post, and easily wired the field by 5 lengths.
Todd Pletcher gave him the winter off to develop. He resurfaced 3-1/2 months later in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. Super Saver jumped right out to a 2 length lead, but entering the backstretch, he faced intense pressure. He dug in tenaciously while battling right to the wire, but had to settle for third, beaten a half-length. He had done all the dirty work for the winner Odysseus and second place finisher Schoolyard Dreams. It must be noted that both of those horses came out of the race to be well beaten in their subsequent start. Super Saver had passed a very important test, proving he was on his way to being a legitimate Derby contender if he could repeat that strong effort 4 weeks later in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Super Saver did pass that test while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. For only the second time in his career, Super Saver did not get the lead. He chased a fast pace in second, moved to challenge the lead at the top of the stretch, but was out-gamed late by Line Of David, losing by a neck while racing between the winner and Dublin to his outside for most of the stretch. The big question with Super Saver is how he will respond to those two very hard races since returning from his layoff. I feel that the two races can only benefit him. He had every chance to go by Line Of David last time out, but just couldn’t muster up the stamina to do so second start back. However, third start back he should be primed to peak. I prefer a horse that has proven he can look another horse in the eye, and fight on right to the wire. It’s not only about winning or losing. It’s all about heart and tenacity, and Super Saver has those important qualities. Both of his wins have been on the front end, but Super Saver showed in the Arkansas Derby that he could stalk and pounce. I have no doubt that 1-1/4 miles is well within his scope. His sire, Maria’s Mon, also sired 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos and the mare Wait A While, a multiple G1 turf winner going long who, like Super Saver, is out of an A.P. Indy mare. Super Saver’s dam Supercharger is related to many of the great horses owned and bred by the regal Phipps stable. I don’t feel that Super Saver will win the Kentucky Derby, but he is a threat to make his presence felt at the wire.
Fifth Selection: (14) MISSION IMPAZIBLE (Pletcher Todd A/Maragh Rajiv)
Mission Impazible is among several Todd Pletcher trainees who will enter the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby. He broke his maiden in his debut going 4-1/2 furlongs at Keeneland last spring over a synthetic surface. Mission Impazible stepped up into Grade 3 company with a good third on Oaks day at Churchill Downs. He suffered an injury after that race, and was put on the shelf, resurfacing on January 9 in the slop at Gulfstrream. Mission was beaten a head after dueling from the start. In 3 starts he had yet to try 2 turns, but he would get his chance on February 20 going a mile in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn. Mission ran deceptively well, chasing a strong pace while racing wide throughout from post 10. He ended up finishing fourth, but did not lose much ground at any point in the race and actually was coming on again in the final stages of the race.
The verdict was still out whether or not Mission Impazible could win over a distance of ground, but he dispelled any doubts when he upset the field at 7-1 in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 27 while traveling 1-1/8 miles for the first time. He sat a perfect trip from an inside post, and like in the Southwest, he made two moves, but his final rally got him the money.
I felt that the Louisiana Derby was a relatively weak group. Mission Impazible beat little compared to what he will face Saturday. However, he does continue to improve, and his final furlong in about :12-2/5 in the Louisiana Derby was actually quite good. In the Kentucky Derby he figures to rate behind the first flight of horses and make a move on the far turn. I don’t have a lot of confidence that he’ll sustain his rally in the stretch while meeting a much tougher group of horses, but on the outside chance that he does, he could get a minor award at a price.
The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference)
(11) DEVIL MAY CARE (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)
As if he didn’t have enough male contenders for the Derby, Todd Pletcher will now enter this filly, who was probably going to run in the Kentucky Oaks until the recent defections from the Derby of the Pletcher trio of Eskendereya, Rule, and Interactif. She won her first two career starts, including the G1 Frizette, but then had a bad trip while also seemingly not caring for the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita in the BC Juvenile Fillies to conclude her 2yo campaign.
When she returned from a 3-1/2 month layoff to begin her 3yo season, Devil May Care threw a fit in the gate and then put forth a very disappointing race on Feb 20, fading badly after making a middle-move. However, Pletcher got her back on track for the G2 Bonnie Miss on March 20. That was her first time racing at 1-1/8 mils, and she won going away in swift time while leaving her field strung out behind, a sign of a quality victory.
Although she won the Bonnie Miss by a widening margin, Devil May Care’s final furlong of :13-3/5 was actually quite slow, casting some doubt on her ability to get 1-1/4 miles in top company, especially against males. She does appear primed for a peak effort third start back, but before we can include this filly among those that had success to any degree in the Derby or in any of the Triple Crown races, she has an awful lot to prove. If she can work out her usual good stalking trip, then maybe she can hang around for a minor award, but in a 20-horse field of males that’s a big ‘if’.
(3) NOBLE'S PROMISE (Mcpeek Kenneth G/Martinez W)
Although he’s won just one graded stakes race, the G1 Breeders Futurity last October, this colt still ranks second only to Lookin At Lucky in graded stakes earnings. That’s because he’s been very consistent from the start, finishing second and third in two other G1 races and also missing by just a head in the G2 Rebel. He really ran a big race in that initial start on a ‘real dirt’ track and led for most of the stretch before getting worn down in the final strides by Lookin At Lucky. Off that super performance he was favored in the G1 Arkansas Derby on April 10, but he came up with the first dull effort of his 8-race career, checking in 5th of 9. It’s hard to say just how much a bumping incident at the break hurt his chances, but he did find himself much farther off the pace than usual, and that may have affected him mentally.
Can Noble’s Promise bounce back here? Most certainly, and his best-of-30 5F drill over the track on April 20 was impressive. He also has a tremendous pedigree for a wet track, which is looking more and more like it may be a factor on Saturday. However, the concern now becomes this 1-1/4 mile distance, because Noble’s Promise has a pedigree that’s really more oriented toward speed than stamina. The distance, in my mind, is the biggest question mark for Promise in this race, and is why I don’t have him ranked higher.
(16) AWESOME ACT (Noseda Jeremy/Leparoux Julien R)
Awesome Act began his career in England at Newmarket, where he strung two second place finishes together at 7 furlongs on the grass. In both races he was very rank early, which probably cost him a closer finish. Trainer Jeremy Noseda shipped him to Kempton for his third start, which was run over a synthetic track. Awesome Act was no threat, finishing a well beaten third in a 5 horse field. That was the last time he would try that surface. Noseda put him right back on the turf 35 days later at Goodwood, where he finally broke his maiden despite once again fighting the jockey soon after the start.
Awesome Act would face his stiffest test in the Group 1 Dewhurst at Newmarket on October 17. He missed the break, and then was bumped. He never settled, finishing a well beaten ninth. Analyzing his 5 races, I could not understand why Awesome Act would be shipped to the US for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita going a mile. He ran much better than expected at 31-1 in that race to be a fast-closing fourth. Awesome Act was racing on Lasix for the first time, which no doubt helped.
Off that one race, Awesome Act had proven to have some quality. This was confirmed 4 months later, when he shipped to Aqueduct to run in the Grade 3 Gotham. Despite traffic on the far turn, he bolted to the lead entering the stretch, and held on gamely to the wire. On closer inspection, I felt his race was not as good as it looked visually. When Awesome Act surged to the front, the rider appeared to be making a premature run, but that may have been a result of Awesome Act wanting to take off when he did, rather than the rider calling upon him to make the move, as if racing a bit rank. He was running down a foe of questionable quality in Yawanna Twist, a New York bred, who had 2 career starts, and had never been beyond 6 furlongs.
Awesome Act would have his final Derby Prep in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He would face a very tough rival in the expected Derby favorite Eskenderya. After stumbling at the break, and being rank once again on the turn, Awesome Act flattened out from the 3/16 pole, finishing a well-beaten third. You could say his ability to rally was hurt by a slow pace, but nevertheless, I felt he should have out-finished Jackson Bend to get second. It was later revealed that he had lost a shoe during the race, and that may have been a factor in his less than stellar finish.
In the Kentucky Derby, Awesome Act will face 19 other horses. He has proven that he has trouble relaxing early in a race, which will zap his energy when the real running begins at the top of the stretch. As a 2 year old, Awesome Act never raced beyond 7 furlongs in his first 5 starts. He appeared to get leg weary in deep stretch in the Gotham at 1-1/16 miles in his first dirt outing. In the Wood, Awesome Act showed no punch late stretching out a 1/16 of a mile further. Between his bad behavior, on a day where 150,000 + fans will converge on Churchill Downs, and his possible distance limitations, I cannot see him winning this race. It is not out of the realm of possibility for Awesome Act to hit the board, but this is a horse I have more negatives on than positives.
(7) AMERICAN LION (Harty Eoin/Flores D R)
American Lion raced on synthetic surfaces in his first 5 starts and was an impressive front running winner in breaking his maiden in his second start going 7F at Keeneland. He then shipped to Hollywood for the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue and scored a game half length victory for his second win at 7 furlongs. He was given nearly 3 months off, resurfacing in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis. Despite finishing third, I felt it was his best race to date. American Lion battled through quick fractions and gave ground grudgingly in the late stages in his first two-turn start. One month later, American Lion would face his sternest test in the Grade 2 San Felipe. For the first time he would be meeting the sharp and improving Sidney’s Candy. Trainer Eoin Harty elected to add blinkers for the first time in that race, but American Lion did not respond well to the hood. Right from the start he was rank and jockey Leparoux could not get him to relax. He chased Sidney’s Candy, but had no answer when asked to cut into that ones margin at the top of the stretch.
Blinkers were removed for his final Derby prep. Instead of staying in California for the Santa Anita Derby, Harty decided to ship American Lion to Hawthorne in Chicago to test him on the dirt for the first time in his career. He drew post one and on paper looked to be the controlling speed in an otherwise paceless field. New rider David Flores put American Lion on the lead as soon as the gate opened and set slow fractions. He faced a stiff challenge on the far turn, but had plenty left to repulse the bid, winning by 2-3/4 expanding lengths while clearly benefitting from the slow pace.
American Lion enters the Derby with a few positives in his corner. In 6 starts, he won at 3 different racetracks. He has won on the lead and stalking. American Lion has won half his starts and is bred well on both sides to handle the Derby distance. What I don’t like about him is that he will never get away with slow fractions if he even gets the lead. If American Lion is up close to the lead, he will be chasing quicker fractions than he is accustomed to attending. While he is eligible to improve further in his second start on dirt, I have not yet seen anything from Lion that leads me to believe that he’s anything more than a G3 or maybe G2 caliber horse.
(13) JACKSON BEND (Zito Nicholas P/Smith M E)
Jackson Bend is the poster child for the word consistency. There isn’t a horse in the Derby field that has started more than him, 9 times, with 5 wins and 4 seconds. Only once has he raced outside of Florida, and that was in the G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his final prep. He was no match in the stretch for Eskendereya, but he battled gamely right to the wire to hold off Awesome Act for second. That rival is expected to be a much shorter price than Jackson Bend in the Derby.
He showed quality and grit in his first 5 starts, which were all in sprints, primarily against Florida breds. Former trainer Stanley Gold tried him at 2 turns for the first time in a restricted Florida Stallion stake worth $400,000 on October 17, and he did not disappoint with a decisive win in very fast time. Following that race, Jackson Bend was privately purchased by trainer nick Zito for his main client Robert Lapenta. I felt it was a great buy, because you always know he will give you a 100 % every time, and in the process pad his earnings. Jackson Bends 3 year old campaign has continued where he left off last year. He has not won in 3 starts, but as is his custom, he has refused to succumb to intense pressure late, while holding on to second in all three outings. Unfortunately, he ran into Eskendereya in his last 2 starts and was no match. Neither was anyone else.
You can never underestimate Nick Zito when he has a long-priced horse in a marquee race. When you combine this fact with the consummate professional racehorse, you cannot easily dismiss Jackson Bend’s chances. I don’t think that he’s a win factor, since his pedigree speaks out loud and clear that 1-1/4 miles is further than what he wants. As a matter of fact, I feel he is at his best going a mile or shorter. But you cannot tell this to Jackson Bend, because he couldn’t care less about pedigree. He will run his typical A + race, and that could be good enough to get a piece of the pie.
(5) LINE OF DAVID (Sadler John W/Bejarano R)
These days it would be folly to totally dismiss anything that trainer John Sadler sends to post, especially a colt who just won a Grade 1 race. Sadler has been setting the standard in Southern California for the last year and a half, and has done a remarkable job bringing this colt along quickly from a maiden to a G1 winner in less than 2 months. The difference seems to have been the addition of blinkers, as Line Of David has reeled off three straight victories since adding the hood. However, all three have been gate-to-wire, which poses a problem for him when you figure that the pace in this 20-horse field figures to be fast and contested. He did hold on very gamely in the Arkansas Derby to fend off stretch bids from Super Saver and Dublin after setting a pace that was actually quite fast. However, he was free and clear on that lead, and that’s a different situation for a horse compared to when he’s fighting for the lead from the start. This colt may prove to be underrated at this point, but I still can’t envision him contesting the lead and lasting for the duration of this race. If he somehow gets another loose lead, then maybe he can hold on unexpectedly, but I don’t foresee that happening.
(17) DUBLIN (Lukas D Wayne/Thompson T J)
I feel I have a good read on Dublin, and that is that I don’t like him much in the Derby. He has proven to be most effective as a closing sprinter. Dublin has run well in 3 starts this year, but when he has had every opportunity to win any or all 3 of those races, Dublin has hung like a chandelier. His claim to fame was an impressive win in last year’s Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga at 7 furlongs. Dublin got a perfect set up, with a fast pace to close into, and a clean outside trip. He bombed in his final start at 2 in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill and then was given time off in preparation for his 3 year old campaign.
Dublin resurfaced in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn nearly 4 months later. He raced sluggishly early. He found his best stride in mid-stretch, and finished up well to run second, beaten less than a length by Conveyance, who was undefeated at the time. Trainer Wayne Lukas decided to keep Dublin at Oaklawn to prepare him for the Grade 2 Rebel. He was heavily bet at 7-5 into the teeth of last years 2 year old champion Lookin For Lucky, who shipped in from California for the race. New rider Corey Nakatani moved a bit too soon, but Dublin did have every chance to sustain his rally further than he did. He ran out of gas in the final 1/8 of a mile. With two races at Oaklawn, Lukas entered him in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Once again, Dublin was in perfect position to get the money through the length of the stretch, but showed no heart to punch it in very late when it counted.
Dublin is your typical sucker horse that has great potential, but not enough heart. He has never won around 2 turns, and has had every chance to do so. Even though his sire Afleet Alex won The Derby and Preakness, Dublin’s mother, Classy Mirage, was a top class sprinter with speed, and her pedigree is geared more for speed and shorter distances. What is going to happen to Dublin at 1-1/4 miles when he is hanging at shorter distances? Even when he gets the perfect pace set up, it does not help. Dublin is a big, long striding horse that needs an outside trip and clear sailing. He is unlikely to get what he wants without losing too much ground. He is not agile and has just one late move. If Dublin is confronted with traffic at any point in the race, he will find it difficult to recover. I would not be shocked if he hit the board, mostly due to my respect for Lukas, who has won four Derbys, rather than the horse himself. But the most I will be playing him is underneath when I press the ALL button.
(6) STATELY VICTOR (Maker Michael J/Garcia A)
Lit up the board at 40-1 in the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland when he rallied from dead last through stretch to blow by the field and win by 4-1/4 lengths. Off his prior 7 starts, Stately Victor never a ran a race which would entice you to run to the window and bet him that day. He had only one win to that point, and that was his maiden victory in his second start on grass at Saratoga. I remember selecting him that day off his solid turf and distance pedigree. Since that win back in September, Stately Victor had not hit the board until the Blue Grass.
The million dollar question is how did Stately Victor win the race and earn enough money to be in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby? The Wizard has a possible explanation. As a handicapper, how do you make an educated decision on what horses can run well on dirt and synthetic? What about grass horses switching to Polytrack , Pro-Ride or Tapeta? Can these horses improve switching to these surfaces, or not? These questions often have no definitive answers. Many people have said that horses that run well on grass can run well on synthetic. Some mention that there are horses that have the right pedigree for it. When I research the results of these races, I can see some correlation, but not enough evidence to confirm this. Stately Victor illustrates this confusion. Prior to his win in the Blue Grass, he had run on grass 3 times, synthetic once, and dirt 3 times. Stately Victor did have an impressive grass victory in his turf debut, but with the exception of a second place finish in an off the grass race in his debut, his other 2 dirt starts were awful. As a matter of fact, he was beaten on dirt at Churchill Downs when last of seven at 1-5 odds. He even raced on what looked to be his preferred surface, grass, in his last start prior to the Blue Grass, where he did not run well. Can you say the grass to synthetic surface moved him up? Does he have the pedigree to move up on the surface? This is what I mean, to illustrate the very difficult task we have as handicappers.
Stately Victor’s trainer Mike Maker wins a very high % of races wherever he goes. He has already won a Breeders’ Cup race and several stakes events, so it’s obvious the trainer will pose no obstacle in having him in peak form. In the case of Stately Victory, I cannot envision him winning the Derby, and it would be a bit of a stretch to get him in the money. There is very little indication he can be effective at this level on dirt. Churchill is a quirky surface. Horses either handle it or don’t. In his one start over it, he was awful, in a spot where he should have romped.
(12) CONVEYANCE (Baffert Bob/Garcia Martin)
Conveyance is one of two Baffert entrants in the Derby. The much more fancied Lookin For Lucky is the other. Conveyance will not be too difficult to pick out from the other 19, as his style of racing is one-dimensional. Go to the lead and play catch me if you can. They will catch him, it’s just a matter of when. Conveyance was a perfect 2 for 2 as a juvenile and then returned as a 3 year old to win back to back Grade 3 stakes, one at Santa Anita and the second at Oaklawn in his first dirt start, running his unbeaten streak to four. Baffert then decided to ship Conveyance to Sunland Park for Sunland Park Derby, which was supposed to be easy pickins, as evidenced by his 3-5 odds. This stake was elevated to Grade 3 status this year as a result of Mine That Bird winning this same race before his upset victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby.
Conveyance was making his first start beyond a mile at Sunland but got a great set up to go wire to wire if he could stay the distance, as there wasn’t much other early speed signed on. He could not stay the distance, as recent maiden winner Endorsement blew by him in the final furlong to draw off by 3 widening lengths. This does not bode well for his chances of handling serious pace pressure in the Derby going an additional 1/8 of a mile. Conveyance is very likely to fold as the field turns for home.
(15) DISCREETLY MINE (Pletcher Todd A/Castellano J J)
No trainer in the history of the Kentucky Derby has had more entrants in one year than Todd Pletcher. You can add Discreetly Mine to this list. There are several horses in the field I feel I have a handle on. He is one of them. And The Wizard does not like his chances to win, or even to hit the board.
Discreetly Mine has won two races. He broke his maiden easily sprinting over a wet track at Saratoga. Even though he followed it up with second place finishes in the Grade 2 Futurity and the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont Park, Discreetly Mine gave me every indication that he had distance limitations.
As a 2 year old, he was trained by Stanley Hough, but was transferred over to Todd Pletcher for his 3 year old campaign. Discreetly Mine was a troubled fourth in a $100,000 stake in the slop at Gulfstream at 6 furlongs. Pletcher then shipped him to the Fair Grounds for the Grade 2 Risen Star, a race in which he would be faced with two obstacles. Discreetly Mine was being asked to go 2 turns for the first time and he had never won over a dry surface before. He could not have had a better set up in that race as the lone speed from a good inside post. Discreetly Mine was able to slow the pace down, and had enough left to hold on for the victory. Even though he passed two important tests, it did nothing to change my opinion of him. My suspicions would be confirmed when Discreetly Mine ran fourth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 27. He never did get the lead and instead chased a slow pace in second. In the stretch Discreetly Mine had every chance to gain on the leaders, but had no punch late, fading slowly to finish a disappointing fourth in what I felt was one of the weakest Louisiana Derbys I had ever seen.
Pletcher elected not to run Discreetly Mine in another Derby prep, so he returns off more than a 2 month layoff. I don’t like that one bit for a horse who will find 1-1/4 miles too far to be effective in the stretch. The only way I am using Discreetly Mine is when I punch the ALL button.
(8) DEAN'S KITTEN (Maker Michael J/Albarado R J)
Son of turf champ Kitten’s Joy is in this race only because he won a depleted version of the G2 Lanes End on a synthetic track at Turfway Park on March 27. Prior to that, he had done virtually nothing in graded stakes. He’s never raced on a dry dirt track, and in fact his only prior start on ‘real dirt’ was a horrible performance in an off-the-turf event at Belmont Park last October 4. I finish in the top half of this field would rank as a big success for this colt.
(18) BACKTALK (Amoss Thomas M/Mena M)
Son of near Triple Crown winner Smarty Jones was very precocious, winning his first three career starts. They were all sprints, and two of them were graded stakes, including the G3 Bashford Manor over this track. However, as the distances increased, Backtalk’s effectiveness decreased, and his only good race in four starts at 7F or beyond was a hard-earned win over a sloppy track in a minor stakes race Feb 26. I have the utmost of respect for his trainer, Tom Amoss, but must wonder why he has this sprinter entered in the Kentucky Derby.
(19) HOMEBOYKRIS (Dutrow Richard E/Dominguez R A)
Richard Dutrow Jr. scored a Kentucky Derby victory with Big Brown in 2008 and will attempt to win again this year with Homeboykris. Good luck to his connections. There is no reason to believe that Homeboykris has any chance to win, or even finish in the money. He qualifies for the Derby based primarily on his win in last year’s Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont. Homeboykris has raced 3 times since. He was a well beaten fifth in the Grade 2 Remson to close out his 2 year old campaign, then returned 2 months later, making his 3 year old debut in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. He dueled from the start, and then faded in the final 1/8 of a mile. His final prep for the Derby was in a strong allowance race on February 27, where he ran an improved race, finishing second to a quality rival in Radiohead. Homeboykris has not raced since. He will enter the Derby off more than a 2 month layoff. 5 of his 6 starts have been at a mile or less. He has one race at 1-1/8 miles, but he showed that day that the distance was a further than what he wants. Now Homeboykris will have to travel 1-1/4 miles against far tougher than what he has faced before. The layoff also poses a major obstacle. If I owned him, you can be sure that his next start would be in a race I felt he could win, so that Homeboykris could gain back the confidence he had as a 2 year old.
(10) PADDY O'PRADO (Romans Dale/Desormeaux K J)
Bred top and bottom for turf, Paddy has raced once on dirt, and that was over a sloppy Churchill Downs track in his career debut. He ran poorly, but turned things around a month later when moving to turf. He was a distant second in the weak G1 Blue Grass last time out, but that was on a synthetic track, not dirt. Can’t see him as any kind of factor in this race.
(9) MAKE MUSIC FOR ME (Barba Alexis/Rosario Joel)
Bred top and bottom for sprints, this colt has done surprisingly well running in routes thus far, including a turf stakes win for his only victory to date. He’s never raced on a dirt track, although he does have good breeding for a wet dirt surface, but this is still a negative, as first time dirt horses are often affected by the increased amount of kickback that they get, compared to their races on turf or on synthetic tracks. Make Music For Me really has not improved this year over his 2yo form, and I have difficulty seeing him as any kind of real factor in this race.
Wagering Strategy
We'll bet our top selection ICE BOX across the board, leaning a bit more on the win spot. We'll key both him and LOOKIN AT LUCKY on top of an exacta part-wheel and also on top of a trifecta part-wheel. We'll also back up the exactas with a box of the top two and third choice SIDNEY'S CANDY, who is quite capable of winning.
* A win, place, and show bet on (2)ICE BOX
* Exacta part-wheel 1-2 over 1-2-3-4-11-14-20 = $24 for a $2 wager
* Press with an exacta box of 1-2-20 = $24 for a $4 wager
* Trifecta part-wheel: 1-2 over 1-2-4-14-20 over 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-11-13-14-16-17-20 = $88 for a $1 wager
BIG AL
Lookin at Lucky
Steve Davidowitz & David Tuley
The top contenders
With ESKENDEREYA knocked out of the race last weekend and the 3-1 morning line favorite LOOKIN AT LUCKY drawing the rail, possible favoritism actually may shift to Santa Anita Derby winner SIDNEY'S CANDY despite his outside post draw. There are at least 10 other serious contenders and the rest cannot be eliminated especially if the track comes up wet as expected. The most accomplished are Gotham Stakes winner AWESOME ACT, Florida Derby winner ICE BOX, the talented filly DEVIL MAY CARE, Louisiana Derby winner MISSION IMPAZIBLE, Illinois Derby winner AMERICAN LION, SUPER SAVER, who placed second in the Arkansas Derby, and the 1-2 finishers in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, STATELY VICTOR and PADDY O' PRADO.
How the race will be run
Several horses clearly prefer to set or press the pace. The two most likely to emerge battling for the lead are Arkansas Derby winner #5 LINE OF DAVID and Southwest Stakes winner #12 CONVEYANCE. But they will have Illinois Derby winner #7 AMERICAN LION, Kentucky Jockey Club winner #4 SUPER SAVER, and Santa Anita Derby winner #20 SIDNEY'S CANDY right behind them, plus a half-dozen more within a few lengths. This adds up to a fast early pace that should favor the come-from-behind horses, and my top four listed below are horses with that type of running style. As stated, more than half the field has a puncher's chance to win.
My picks to win. Steve Davidowitz
With the pace scenario, I slightly prefer the stretch runners who have performed well on dirt tracks in the following order: #16 AWESOME ACT, #2 ICE BOX, #14 MISSION IMPAZIBLE and #1 LOOKIN AT LUCKY. ‘Lucky' is a classy, very game sort whose task was made more difficult by his inside post draw where traffic problems are almost guaranteed. I also like #4 SUPER SAVER to survive the pressurized pace, while #20 SIDNEY'S CANDY is a classy, fast horse destined for a wide trip on the first turn which would compromise his chances. #10 PADDY O' PRADO and #12 CONVEYANCE have both trained superbly at Churchill and may move up on a sloppy track. The filly #11 DEVIL MAY CARE fits well enough, but may be over-bet on sentiment.
My long shot.
There are many with good form at 15-1 and higher, but the well named #4 SUPER SAVER is a legit upset threat. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Super Saver is making his third start off a layoff; he won a graded stakes at Churchill Downs last fall, and looked to be an improving, relaxed horse in each of his local workouts. A sharp second in the Arkansas Derby on a tricky Oaklawn racing surface, Super Saver also won a maiden race by 7 lengths on a very sloppy Belmont Park track last September, which adds to his appeal. I also think that two 50-1 shots, #19 HOMEBOYKRIS and #18 BACKTALK have Grade-1 talent; they have trained forwardly for top-notch horsemen and might pass tired horses to spice up the superfecta. The top contenders…
LOOKIN AT LUCKY, the defending 2-year-old champion, inherits the role of favorite (3-1) with the scratch of Eskendereya. SIDNEY'S CANDY beat LOOKIN AT LUCKY in the Santa Anita Derby. DEVIL MAY CARE is trying to become just the fourth filly to win the Kentucky Derby, which is having its 136th running. AWESOME ACT is the wise-guy horse after finishing third in the Wood Memorial despite stumbling at the start, losing a shoe and having a wide trip. DUBLIN was the early future-book favorite in Vegas last September.
How the race will be run.
There are a ton of horses with early speed, including SUPE SAVER, LINE OF DAVID, AMERICAN LION, CONVEYANCE and DISCREETLY MINE. SIDNEY'S CANDY, another that has shown a tendency to go for the lead, will probably be forced to sit just behind the pacesetters from post No. 20 along with DEAN'S KITTEN, PADDY O'PRADO, DEVIL MAY CARE, JACKSON BEND and HOMEBOYKRIS. LOOKIN AT LUCKY and other closers like ICE BOX, STATELY VICTOR and AWESOME ACT will try to save ground and set up their late runs, hoping the speed backs up. It could be anyone's race at the top of the stretch.
My picks to win. David Tuley
LINE OF DAVID could be the speed of the speed and is my pick to steal the race at 30-1. Unlike some other speed horses in here that have set slow fractions, he has gone very fast early in his races (:46 1/5 for a half mile in the Arkansas Derby) and still has enough to hold off closers. The knock on him this week was a slow work on Monday, but he had a slow work prior to his Arkansas Derby win as well and trainer John Sadler usually doesn't work him fast anyway but he still shows up on race day.
SIDNEY'S CANDY has three straight wire-to-wire victories. He's also trained by Sadler, who insists he can rate and come off the pace, which he'll have to do from the far outside post. Like LINE OF DAVID, this horse has also shown the stamina to still be running fast late. I like him best among the top contenders.
LOOKIN AT LUCKY is just a little racing luck away from being 8-for-8 as his only losses were in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Santa Anita Derby. He'll be running at the end. The only question is if he can avoid trouble being pinned on the inside from the No. 1 post position and be able to run down the leaders in the stretch.
My long shot.
HOMEBOYKRIS reminds me of last year's upset winner, Mine That Bird, in that he earned his graded stakes earning as a 2-year-old and hasn't done much since. He comes into the Derby off the longest layoff of anyone in the field, but we've seen young 3-year-olds make vast improvement under such circumstances. That possibility could be worth a flier as he should go off well in excess of his 50-1 morning-line odds.
Tony George
1. Awesome Angle 2. Jackson Bend 3. Super Saver ( Ice Box thrown into some exotics as well) Jackson Bend best mudder he says.
Sean Higgs
Noble Promises - Dublin - Ice Box
Jill Byrne
Race 1 – STAY PUT (6) ran deceptively well in a
pair of Kentucky Derby preps earlier in the season and
looks like the class of this field. KETTLE RIVER (2)
was beaten just a few lengths in a graded stakes last
out and should fit well at this level. VOW TO
WAGER (3), a stakes winner two races back, also
merits a chance in this tough allowance event.
JILL’S SELECTIONS – 6-2-3
Race 2 (Race selections provided by Merv
Huber) – ZIMMER (3), one of just two older horses
in this race, has run consistently well throughout his
seven-race career and could capture his first win
today. SPICER (4) is a highly regarded colt who
should run better in his second start off the layoff.
HENCEFORTH (8) has run much better over dirt
than on synthetics and should improve today.
MERV’S SELECTIONS – 3-4-8
Race 3 – HEART UNION (7) finished a close
fourth in her debut after experiencing traffic issues and
is a serious contender with a better trip. BEYOND
OUR REACH (12) nearly broke through the maiden
ranks last time out and will be close with her best
effort. KATHERN’S KITTEN (10) has been working
well for her debut.
JILL’S SELECTIONS – 7-12-10
Race 4 – VIA VERDE (6) has been running
against better competition in California and should
appreciate the drop in class. SPOOKY’S READY (7)
takes a step up in class and makes his first start since
last summer but attracts leading rider Calvin Borel.
BRAVO WHISKEY (4) finished third at this level
last out and seems to fit here.
JILL’S SELECTIONS – 6-7-4
Race 5 – HYMN BOOK (4), a winner of four of
his last five races, continues to ascend up the
allowance ranks and looks imposing in this event.
CABERNEIGH (7) failed to impress in his seasonal
debut but is a top contender if he runs back to his 2009
form. PICKAPOCKET (11) failed to fire last time
out and looks to rebound in this race.
JILL’S SELECTIONS – 4-7-11
Race 6 – DECELERATOR (4) was a two-time
stakes winner at Oaklawn Park earlier this year and
seems to have found her niche as middle distance filly.
HOT DIXIE CHICK (2) is one of the fastest 3-yearold
fillies of 2010 but this distance may test her
stamina. VISAVIS (7) did not handle a route of
ground well last out but should be more effective at
today’s distance.
JILL’S SELECTIONS – 4-2-7
Race 7 – FANTASIA (3) ran a strong race in her
seasonal debut, which was also her first start in this
country. A top filly overseas last year, Fantasia is a
force to reckon with in this event. PHOLA (2) was a
runaway winner last time out in what could have been
a break out race. DIAMONDRELLA (7) has shown
immense talent but has been off form recently.
JILL’S SELECTIONS – 3-2-7
Race 8 – INFORMED DECISION (3), reigning
female sprint champion and winner of this race last
year, looks very tough to beat. DUBAI MAJESTY (4)
defeated the choice last time out and always runs a
good race. MONA DE MOMMA (10) won
impressively last out and jumps in class.
JILL’S SELECTIONS – 3-4-10
Race 9 – WARRIOR’S REWARD (7) showed an
explosive turn of foot to capture the Carter (GI) last
time out and seems to have found his calling as a
sprinter/miler. MUNNINGS (1) is a talented and
consistent sprinter that should run well again today.
MUSKET MAN (12), third in last year’s Kentucky
Derby, was unlucky to lose to the top choice last time
out and must be respected in today’s race.
JILL’S SELECTIONS – 7-1-12
Race 10 – COURT VISION (3) finished third in
this race last year and is one of the top turf horses this
year. BATTLE OF HASTINGS (6) has finished
second or third in five of his last six starts and should
be used in exotics. LOUP BRETON (8) did not enjoy
racing over a synthetic track last out but should relish
the return to grass.
JILL’S SELECTIONS – 3-6-8
Race 11 – LOOKIN AT LUCKY (1) was
unlucky to draw the rail, as he has found trouble in
prior races, but he may be talented enough to
overcome adversity and still wear roses. SIDNEY’S
CANDY (20) may be able to clear the field early
despite drawing the far outside, with no significant
speed immediately to his inside. AWESOME ACT
(16) may be overlooked after a spotty effort last time
but has talent to compete in here. PADDY O’PRADO
(10) is a rapidly improving colt who has been working
extremely well for his start in this race. Florida Derby
(GI) winner ICE BOX (2) has also been working well
in advance of this race and deserves a look.
JILL’S SELECTIONS – 1-20-16-10-2
Race 12 – HANDLEMAN (8) has been first or
second in eight of nine career starts and looks poised
to run another big race today. E Z’S GENTLEMAN
(11) finished third in a Grade 2 stakes last out which
stamps him as a major player in this race.
OMNISCIENT (2) ran decently in his seasonal bow
and should improve in his second start off the bench.
JILL’S SELECTIONS – 8-11-2
Race 13 – GALIENTOS (10) is eligible to
graduate from the maiden ranks after two solid efforts
at this level. SCARY GOOD (9) has run consistently
well and should be used in exotics. DEETS (8) nearly
captured her debut, coming up just a neck shy, and
should be respected in here.
JILL’S SELECTIONS – 10-9-8
Seabass
Kentucky Derby
3 - Noble Promise Win Place Show
Also you can key the 3 horse in exotics with
1,4,6,11,12,15,17,20