Wizard
Preakness Stakes
Race Synopsis
From a pace scenario, and in terms of running style, this year's Preakness is far different than in the past. If you look over the past performances of all 12 horses, you will notice that, with the exception of Northern Giant, who held a narrow lead in his maiden win in the slop at the Fair Grounds, only one horse has proven himself to be an established front runner. That horse is the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. When you add into the equation that Calvin Borel is back aboard, it appears more likely than not that he will try for the lead, despite breaking from post 8.
Two main attributes that separate Borel from many other riders are that he is very aggressive out of the gate, which helps speed runners, and that he loves the rail. If my thinking is correct, and Super Saver breaks sharply, it is likely he will get the lead into the first turn along the inside. If he does not break sharply, Super Saver may be forced wide, as there are several horses inside of him who have enough early lick to lay up close.
The other scenario that is if any of the horses breaking inside of Super Saver want to gun, then Borel has the option to take back and stalk, as he did in the Derby. One horse that might be ‘sent’ hard is Jackson Bend, who breaks from post 6. Based on his very fast workout May 10 at Churchill, trainer Nick Zito may tell rider Mike Smith to go to the lead. These tactics worked successfully when Zito won the 1996 Preakness with Louis Quartorze, who wired the field. Borel will have to decide whether or not to take back and get hung a bit wide into the clubhouse turn, or hard urge him to the front, which could take its toll on Super Saver late in the race. If Super Saver had drawn a post from the rail to the 5 slot, he would seem to hold a big pace and race shape edge. From post 8, it makes it a bit more difficult to know where Borel will place his mount in the early stages of the race. The early fractions are not expected to be very fast, which could hurt the closers, especially the way the Pimlico course is configured. This will clearly be a rider’s race, where the outcome will be determined by the pace of the race, and by positioning early on. I believe that horses positioned within 5 or 6 lengths of the lead are the ones who will have the best chance of winning this race.
The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 AIKENITE 20/1
2 SCHOOLYARD DREAMS 15/1
3 PLEASANT PRINCE 20/1
4 NORTHERN GIANT 30/1
5 YAWANNA TWIST 30/1
6 JACKSON BEND 12/1
7 LOOKIN AT LUCKY 3/1
8 SUPER SAVER 5/2
9 CARACORTADO 10/1
10 PADDY O'PRADO 9/2
11 FIRST DUDE 20/1
12 DUBLIN 10/1
First Selection: (7) LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Baffert Bob/Garcia Martin)
Trainer Bob Baffert was undecided whether or not he was going to run Lookin At Lucky until Monday, when he gave the green light that all is well with him and he would be entered. Knowing Baffert as well as I do, he wanted to make sure Lucky came out of the Derby 100% and would be ready to give his best in the Preakness. If Baffert says so, I will not question his decision. What must be answered is whether or not he can get a good trip this time, and will the race set up well for him. Obviously you cannot question is ability or his will to win.
Like Super Saver, Lookin At Lucky was prepared for the Kentucky Derby with perfection. Baffert used the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn in his 3 year old debut to see if he could handle conventional dirt after 6 races as a 2 year old over synthetic surfaces in Southern California. Lucky delivered a determined victory, nailing Noble’s Promise at the wire after taking up at the half mile pole. Lucky passed this big test on ‘real dirt’ with flying colors. In his last 2 starts, he suffered nightmare trips. He was eliminated on the far turn and hurt by a slow pace in the Santa Anita Derby. When he drew post 1 in the Kentucky Derby, for all intents and purposes his fate was sealed. Lookin At Lucky was wiped out soon after the start and then again a furlong into the race. When a horse with his stalk and pounce running style is compromised so severely, and finds himself in eighteenth position soon after the break, you can safely rip up your tickets. Considering that Lucky was running over a wet track for the first time, as well as his nightmare journey, he did not run badly, and I believe that Gomez did not push him to the limit, leaving something in the tank for the Preakness. Lucky picked up 12 horses through the stretch to run sixth, beaten 7 lengths. If you extrapolate the 2-1/2 length win by perfect-trip Super Saver, he was only beaten 4-1/2 lengths for second despite a world of trouble. It’s true that there were other horses who benefitted by closing late on a fast pace and on the collapsing speed, but Lucky was not hard urged by Gomez when it was clear that he could not overcome the terrible trip. Gomez wisely got his mount home safely, able to return and fight another day.
This day will be in the Preakness. No matter how you slice and dice this race, Lookin At Lucky will prove a very formidable rival. When you look at the composition of the field, he has clearly accomplished more than all of his rivals. He has the most career wins (6) and G1 wins (3), and 4 of those wins have come at 4 different race tracks. He has won from off the pace and stalking. What is even more amazing is that if you add up the margin of victory in all 6 wins, it comes to 5 lengths and a head in total. This tells you why he was last year’s juvenile champion. Lucky has tremendous will, a huge heart, and knows how to deliver the knockout punch. I love these attributes in any athlete.
My one concern with Lookin At Lucky is that he will be getting a new rider in the Preakness. Garrett Gomez, who has ridden Lucky in all 9 starts, is being replaced. When you take off a jockey who I feel is one of the best in the country, you wonder if this is a good move. Lucky is not the easiest horse to ride. If you read his trouble lines in his last 5 starts, you see "bumped late", "tugging", "jumped heels", "steadied 5/16", and "roughed twice early". Obviously you can say these problems were not his doing, but nevertheless Gomez was aboard for all of those races, and maybe a change was necessary. If Baffert thinks so, then I won’t argue.
I went to Churchill Downs to cover the Oaks and Derby for Twin Spires and Churchill. I was allowed access to the paddock for every race to report anything I spotted as far as physical appearance and anything I felt was important to pass along to many fans on a chat I was doing. I spoke to Baffert, who I have known for quite some time. We both agreed that the footing on the inside part of the track was not as good as the outside paths. This was obvious from many dirt races run earlier on the card. What was ironic was that Borel never cared less about the bias, and rode the inside to victory, while every other rider looked to stay off it, so it is possible that the bias disappeared or lessened due to track maintenance prior to the Derby. When Lookin At Lucky entered the paddock, I took notice of how great he looked. When he was saddled and took a few turns around the paddock oval before entering the tunnel on the way to the track, I took note that of all the horses I had seen for 2 days, he made the best appearance. His coat was glistening, his neck was arched, and he was well muscled.
But as we all know, it’s on the racetrack where you win or lose the race, not in the paddock. Nevertheless, I am putting a line right through the last race, and instead I am evaluating his chances off his form prior to the Derby. He was primed for a peak effort in the Derby, but never had the chance to show it after the severe early trouble. If Lookin At Lucky can have some racing luck in the Preakness from post 7, he will rebound in a big way, and could make amends at a square price.
Second Selection: (8) SUPER SAVER (Pletcher Todd A/Borel C H)
NOTE: PLEASE REFER TO THE PACE SCENARIO ON THE TOP OF THE SHEET FOR MY ANALYSIS OF HOW I FEEL THE RACE WILL SET UP FOR SUPER SAVER.
Even though I felt my top selection Ice Box was the best horse in the Kentucky Derby, I slightly underestimated Super Saver’s chances by selecting him fourth. In retrospect, I should have placed him as my second choice when Lookin For Lucky drew the tough rail slot and Sidney’s Candy broke from post 20. But that is yesterday’s news, and now we must evaluate the contestants for the Preakness.
The expected favorite Super Saver is worthy of winning the second jewel of the Triple Crown, but he will be over bet. Derby winners usually are, especially if they are ridden by Calvin Borel. He has won 3 of the last 4 renewals of the Kentucky Derby, aboard Street Sense in 2007, Mine That Bird in 2009, and two weeks ago with Super Saver. Borel jumped off Mine That Bird to ride last year’s Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra. Borel is embraced as the most beloved and recognized jockey in the racing world. That is just another reason you will be getting lower odds on Super Saver on Saturday. Call it the Borel factor.
After 24 Kentucky Derby starters, trainer Todd Pletcher finally got his first Kentucky Derby winner with Super Saver. It was a long time coming and there will be more down the road, as Pletcher has established himself to be one of the finest trainers in the United States, and for that matter in the world. He prepared Super Saver for the Derby with precision and perfection. Pletcher used the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby as stepping stones toward his ultimate goal, the Kentucky Derby. Even though Super Saver did not win the preps, he was only beaten a half length and a neck in both starts. Each race was better than the previous one. Super Saver made his 3 year old debut running 1-1/16 miles at Tampa. In his second start, he stretched out to 1-1/8 miles and then 1-1/4 miles in the Derby.
As far as morning workouts were concerned, Super Saver never missed a beat. There was little doubt in my mind, as well as Pletcher’s, that Eskendereya was the best horse he had ever sent to post for the Kentucky Derby. He would have been a heavy favorite. Super Saver was his next best hope, and as we all saw, he got it done under a skillful ride by Borel.
Even though Super Saver won by 2-1/2 lengths, it was the second place finisher Ice Box who ran the better race in the Kentucky Derby. Borel, as he usually does at Churchill, settled Super Saver in sixth position early, 8 lengths off the pace. He made steady progress on the backstretch and through the turn and loomed very close to the leaders turning for home. In mid-stretch, Super Saver took command, opening 2 lengths on the field before bounding home to a clear cut victory. This was the first time in Super Saver’s career, that he actually passed horses in the stretch and proved victorious. Both of his prior wins were in front running fashion.
The inside part of the track was not the place to be all afternoon, but Borel couldn’t have cared less, as he was content to keep Super Saver along the rail almost the entire way. You could not have scripted it any better. A perfect trip, aided by a fast pace to close into, a great ride, and not a straw in his path his entire journey. That could not be said of the second plae finisher Ice Box, who encountered severe trouble several times in the race. He was able to shake clear in deep stretch, but he had too much to do and not enough time to do it in. With a clean trip, there is no doubt in my mind, that Ice Box would have won the Kentucky Derby.
I have complete faith that Pletcher will have Super Saver well-prepared off a 2 week break to run another big race. Unlike many of the others in the field, Super Saver is sharp and on the improve. He is also very versatile. Super Saver can go to the lead or sit right off it, which is a running style that works very well at Pimlico, where the turns are much sharper than at Churchill. There is also much less early speed signed on for the Preakness than for the Derby, so the pace is expected to be much more moderate, helping horses who can sit close up.
Obviously there are many things for me to like about Super Saver in the Preakness, but even so, I am not picking him on top for several reasons, and instead placing him second. The main reason is that he will be way over bet. Super Saver could get the early lead and the inside. He has excellent gate speed. In 4 of his 7 races, he has had the lead at the first call. No one comes close to his early running lines. Calvin Borel owns Churchill Downs, but he is clearly not the same rider outside the confines of Louisville Kentucky. Borel does not ride with the same confidence. He gets exposed as just an average rider. If you don’t believe me, just look at his winning percentage out of town compared to at Churchill. I also never felt that Super Saver had any big edge over several of his rivals in the Derby. What he did have going for him was an impressive win in a Grade 2 stake last year in his only start at Churchill, a pedigree to love a wet track, and he was peaking at the perfect time. The conditions will be a bit different in a full field of 12 runners on a track that is configured far differently than Churchill Downs. I would not be the least surprised if Super Saver wins the race, but at odds of 5-2 or less, he will be my second selection. I will use him in nearly every wager I suggest.
Third Selection: (2) SCHOOLYARD DREAMS (Ryan Derek S/Coa E M)
Right from the beginning of Schoolyard Dreams' career, his connections believed he was a 2 year old who wanted a distance of ground. In both starts last year, he was sent 2 turns at Philadelphia Park. Schoolyard Dreams showed ability in his debut with a third place finish, closing from off the pace. In his second start, he showed improved speed, forcing the pace from the start. Schoolyard Dreams prevailed by a length. His connections knew they had a potential Derby candidate, so he was given some time off to develop. Tampa was to be his destination to begin his 3 year old campaign.
Seven weeks later Schoolyard Dreams was shipped to Tampa Bay Downs to run in an optional claimer. He prevailed, running hard throughout. Trainer Derek Ryan used the race as a prep for the Sam Davis Stakes, and then the Tampa Bay Derby if all things went well. Schoolyard Dreams was equipped with blinkers for the first time in the Sam Davis. He had to settle for second behind Rule, who had shipped in from Palm Meadows training center as a more seasoned and proven rival.
Schoolyard Dreams was clearly on the improve, and the Tampa Bay Derby would be the race that would determine if he was a worthy Kentucky Derby candidate. Also entered in the race was Odysseus, who was coming off an explosive victory in very fast time over the Tampa surface. Also in the race was the talented Super Saver. Schoolyard Dreams rated in fourth early on. Midway on the far turn rider Jeremy Rose made a premature wide move to take a narrow lead approaching the stretch. Schoolyard Dreams battled tooth and nail the length of the stretch, only to be nipped by Odysseus at the wire. It was the closest nose defeat I had ever seen. Actually I thought he had won the race. With a more patient and better timed move, he would have proven victorious.
Schoolyard Dreams would have his final Derby prep shipping north to Aqueduct for the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. The Wood would be by far his toughest race as he would be facing Eskendereya, who was coming off an "eye opening" 9-3/4 length victory in the Florida Derby. Also entered were the sharp and consistent Jackson Bend and the Gotham Stakes winner Awesome Again. Sent off at 8-1, Schoolyard Dreams sat a perfect trip along the rail and showed little. He finished fourth, beaten 11 lengths. If you extrapolate out the margin of victory by Eskendereya, he actually was beaten less than 2 lengths by Jackson Bend and Awesome Act, who ran 2nd and 3rd. It was not the performance Schoolyard Dreams connections were hoping for, but put in its proper context, it was a decent effort. Schoolyard Dreams never made the Derby cut, but it could be a blessing in disguise, because he enters the Preakness off a 42-day layoff, in contrast to several others in the field who had raced in the Derby and have only 2 weeks between races.
Schoolyard Dreams has worked very well for the Preakness. He is a versatile horse who figures to be in striking position from the start. This style is a benefit at Pimlico, with the tighter turns. The only problem is that there are several horses in the field that have a similar running style, so he does not have much of an advantage in that category. What Schoolyard Dreams does have going for him is that he drew a great post (2), and with closers just to his inside and outside, he should sit a ground saving rail trip a good part of the way.
I am a bit concerned that the horses in the Wood Memorial may not be in the top echelon of 3 year olds behind Eskendereya. Jackson Bend and Awesome Act were up the track in the Kentucky Derby. Carnivore, who was beaten 2-1/2 lengths by Schoolyard Dreams, came back to run a very poor fifth in last Saturday’s Grade 2 Dwyer, beaten nearly 17 lengths. These results point out that the Wood Memorial could be a negative race, On the flip side, considering he defeated the Derby winner Super Saver by a half length in the Tampa Bay Derby, he must still be respected in the Preakness. What I find interesting is that in his seventh career start on Saturday, he will be ridden by his seventh different rider. Hopefully Eibar Coa will fit him best after the race is over. I feel that of all the longshots in the field, Schoolyard Dreams is the most enticing at 15-1 morning line odds.
Fourth Selection: (6) JACKSON BEND (Zito Nicholas P/Smith M E)
If you put a line through his race in the Kentucky Derby, you will notice a horse that has been a gem of consistency throughout his career. In the Derby, he was making his first start over a wet track at a distance that I felt was beyond his scope. Add to that a troubled trip and being much further back early in the race than he has been accustomed to. In the Preakness, Jackson Bend will be confronted with a much better scenario. In 10 starts, he has only been worse than second once, and that was his 12th place finish in the Derby. With the exception of Lookin At Lucky, Jackson Bend has more wins than any in the Preakness field, tied with Caracortado, who also has 5 victories. The difference between these 3 horses is that Jackson has won all of his races on conventional dirt, whereas Lookin At Lucky and Caracortado only have 2 dirt victories between the two of them.
Jackson Bend was privately purchased by Nick Zito and his main client Robert LaPenta following his win last October in a Florida bred stakes race at Calder. These same connections also own Ice Box, who ran second in the Derby. They have elected to save Ice Box for the Belmont and run this colt in the shorter Preakness.
Jackson Bend’s first 5 races were in sprints. He ran his best career race in his final start as a juvenile, making his first start around 2 turns. He proved tough as hickory, showing steady progress in 6 starts at two. Jackson Bend made his first start as a 3 year old in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. He ran a solid second, beaten less than a length after making 2 moves.
Unfortunately, Jackson ran into Eskendereya in his next 2 starts. He was beaten 8 -1/2 and 9-3/4 lengths in both the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth and the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. Because of his tenacity and plenty of heart, he was able to hold on to second, facing a stiff challenge for the place both times.
What Jackson Bend possesses is excellent tactical speed, which is a strong commodity at Pimlico with its tighter turns. He had been training brilliantly preparing for the Derby, so I have no doubt Jackson Bend will return to his sharp and consistent form in the Preakness. What concerns me about him being able to win the race is that he has never won outside of Florida. Jackson Bend also appears to have distance limitations. He has never won beyond 1-1/16 miles. In his 2 races at 1-1/8 miles, he did hold on reasonably well late in the race, but he was easily defeated, and both horses he held off are not in the top echelon of 3 year olds. Jackson Bend is a danger to hit the board, but it is a stretch to see him get his picture taken in the winner’s circle.
Fifth Selection: (10) PADDY O'PRADO (Romans Dale/Desormeaux K J)
Paddy O’ Prado was well backed in the Kentucky Derby, considering that the favorite was 6-1 and he was only 12-1 in a field of 20. I had heard whispers that his connections liked his chances and they were right. Paddy O’ Prado finished a solid third, beaten less than 4 lengths. When you take into consideration that he was making only his second start on dirt (his only other dirt start was in his 2 year old debut going 6 furlongs in the slop last July), his race looks even better. Soon after the break, Paddy caused some serious damage when he came in on Stately Victor, who in turn bumped Lookin At Lucky right out of contention. Paddy was behind Super Saver down the backstretch, sitting in perfect position along the rail. Approaching the far turn, jockey Desormeaux had to put on the breaks when he ran up near the heels of Mission Impazible, and had to come around him. Soon after the trouble, he altered course back to the inside and behind Super Saver, who stood his ground on the rail. Approaching the top of the stretch, Desormeaux wanted to come outside, but was forced back to the rail as Sidney’s Candy began backing up in his face. Soon after, Conveyance, who was also backing up quickly in front of Paddy, forced Desormeaux to steady once again. Super Saver was able to open up more daylight on Paddy, but he then regained his momentum. He began to get into a good stride, when once again Desormeaux was caught between Noble’s Promise and Devil May Care, forcing him to steady for the third time at a crucial point inside the eighth pole. He was beaten less than 3 lengths. There is no doubt that with a cleaner journey, the margin would have been less, but don’t forget that Ice Box had an even a more brutal trip.
With only 1 career win, and that coming on grass, it’s difficult to say if Paddy O’ Prado can improve on his Derby performance on a dry track he will encounter for the first time. He has proven he can race up close to the pace or take back and make one late run. Paddy is agile enough to overcome some traffic problems, which are all important factors at Pimlico, and he is one of the few horses in the field who appears to be on the improve. However, his wide draw in post 10 hurts his chances a bit.
The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference)
(12) DUBLIN (Lukas D Wayne/Gomez G K)
I have been negative on Dublin all year, and I feel no differently about him in the Preakness following a seventh place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Rider Terry Thompson made a premature wide move on the turn to go from 13 lengths back on the backstretch to loom 2-3/4 lengths from the leaders approaching the stretch. It was more an optical illusion, as the pacesetters began backing up badly after a grueling pace. In Dublin’s 3 previous starts this year, he has shown that he is unwilling to go by horses in deep stretch when it counts most. A perfect example of this was in the Arkansas Derby, where Dublin had every chance to win or run second. It’s true he was only beaten a neck by Super Saver, but that rival was clearly on an improving form cycle, while Dublin was more or less holding form. Dublin had 2 hard races coming into the race and another brutally hard effort in the Arkansas Derby. In handicapping parlance, I would refer to him as a horse without much heart and “over the top”. These are the type of runners I avoid in big spots.
In the Preakness, Dublin is faced with another major obstacle. He is a very big horse, who is basically one paced, and not agile enough to overcome the tight turns at Pimlico and any trouble he might encounter in a full field of 12. The bright spot I do see for a possible improved performance, though I do not see him winning, is that Dublin gets a major rider change from Thompson to Garrett Gomez. Gomez was taken off Lookin At Lucky by Bob Baffert for 2 reason. First and foremost is that Lucky has been victimized by brutal trips in his last 2 starts, and a change in riders, according to Baffert, was necessary. The other reason was that as of last Sunday, he was unsure whether or not Lookin At Lucky would run in the Preakness. This allows Gomez to commit to trainer D. Wayne Lukas and Dublin to insure a mount. Unfortunately for his connections, Dublin drew outermost post 12, which is another strike against him.
(3) PLEASANT PRINCE (Ward Wesley A/Leparoux Julien R)
Owner Kenneth Ramsey has put a lot of money into this game, and if he has a horse that he feels has enough quality to put in good showing in major race, he will show up. I have heard him on several occasions saying “that if you don’t run, you cannot win”. This is why Pleasant Prince will be starting in the Preakness.
If the Prince brings has “A” game to Pimlico, it is possible he can get a piece of the pie, but that is a BIG if. He has been very inconsistent throughout his career, with his lone victory coming in a 1-turn race at Churchill has a 2 year old. Pleasant Prince has run 6 times since, all as a 3 year old. He has finished third, fourth, fifth, and seventh, beaten a total of 38 lengths. In his other 2 races, he ran second, beaten a half-length in an entry-level allowance race, and then was beaten a nose to Ice Box in the Grade 1 Florida Derby at 29-1. How he came up with that race totally out of the blue is anyone’s guess. It probably was a result of the fast pace and collapsing speed, which flattered his late running style. In Pleasant Prince’s last start, he was a well beaten third in his first start over a sloppy track at Churchill.
With only one win and marked inconsistency, it is very hard for me to envision the Prince winning the Preakness. It would be surprise if he even hits the board. He is not expected to get the blistering pace we saw in the Derby to set up his late rally. Like several others in the field, I find no reason to use him other than in trifectas when I push the ALL button.
(1) AIKENITE (Pletcher Todd A/Castellano J J)
I really liked what I saw out of Aikenite as a 2 year old. When any juvenile wins his debut then steps up to the grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga to run a troubled trip third, you must take notice. When Aikenite stretched out to 2 turns for the first time in the Breeders’ Futurity and the BC Juvenile, he ran well enough for me to watch him closely as a 3 year old. Both of those races were over synthetic surfaces, so he did have a built-in excuse in both defeats.
Some 2 year olds do not regain their juvenile form when they turn 3. There could be several factors which can cause this, but whatever the reasons are, Aikenite illustrates this. He has raced 4 times this year, all in graded stakes. When you begin the year running sixth, then follow it up with a 9-length defeat and an eighth place finish, you are not worthy of a Kentucky Derby start. Aikenite did run a much improved race in the Derby Trial, but was 6-3/4 lengths clear of Pleasant Prince, both of whom will both be running in the Preakness.
Aikenite has only one career win, which is a negative for me. The only positive I could come up with, and this is a bit of a stretch, is that it appears he performs at his best when taken far off the pace and make one run. These tactics are most likely to be employed in the Preakness, which is a track which does no flatter this style of running.
(5) YAWANNA TWIST (Dutrow Richard E/Prado E S)
In a race where the pace does not figure to be anywhere near as fast as in the Derby, Yawanna Twist can benefit from this scenario, at least until the field turns for home. At that point, he will have to prove that he fits at this class level and can outstay rivals that appear to have more quality than him. Yawanna Twist is a New York bred, which I do not hold against him one bit. You can go back to Funny Cide winning the Derby and Preakness to show that a good NY bred can compete with the best of them. In his first 2 starts, Yawanna Twist won for fun sprinting against NY breds. Super trainer Rick Dutrow Jr, who won a Kentucky Derby in 2008 with Big Brown, stretched him out to 2 turns for the first time in the Grade 3 Gotham on March 6. His jockey Edgar Prado took him back further off the pace than in his previous 2 starts, and he sustained a nice wide rally to run second to Awesome Act.
With the Kentucky Derby on his connections’ radar, it would take a winning effort in the Illinois Derby to make the cut. Yawanna Twist was sent off the 7-5 favorite. He was defeated by 2-3/4 lengths by American Lion, who wired the field, setting a slow pace on a speed favoring track. The Lion came back to run up the track in the Derby. Considering Yawanna tried his best to overcome the Lion in deep stretch when the two were heads apart inside the 1/8 pole, the fact that he ended up 11 lengths clear of the third horse, pointed out this colt has some quality. The main question was did he have enough of it to be competitive against the top 3 year olds.
I would not be shocked if Yawanna Twist hit the board in the Preakness, but that is only because I have so much respect for his trainer, who I believe will have him as good as hands can make him. Yawanna Twist has a running style that is similar to several others in here, but I don’t feel he has the quality at this point in his young career to win the race. He is the most lightly raced horse in the field, and that is a big negative for me. I plan to use Yawanna Twist underneath in trifectas only.
(11) FIRST DUDE (Romans Dale/Dominguez R A)
Trainer Dale Romans will have 2 entrants for the Preakness, Paddy O’ Prado and First Dude. Romans wanted to run him in the Kentucky Derby, but First Dude did not qualify because he had not earned enough graded stakes money in his 6 race career. He has only 1 win, and that was a decisive maiden victory on Jan 30 at Gulfstream going a flat mile. First Dude steadily improved off that win. 22 days later, he faced winners for the first time while stretching out to 1-1/8 miles. First Dude ran a very strong second, beaten a head by Fly Down, who came back to run off the board in the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds, but rebounded in a big way with a powerful 7 length victory last Sunday in the Grade 2 Dwyer at Belmont Park. First Dude dueled through quick fractions racing outside of the inside speed and battled gamely to the wire. Romans felt he deserved a chance to step up in class right into the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Despite running fifth, I felt his race was better than it appears on paper. First Dude raced between horses on the backstretch and into the turn. High % jockey Ramon Dominguez eased First Dude to the rail at the top of the stretch. In mid-stretch Dominguez was forced to put on the brakes when he had to steady sharply at a crucial point in the race, losing all momentum. First Dude still had run in him at that point, as Dominguez elected to angle him out very wide inside the eighth pole. The Dude regained his stride and finished "sneaky well". I liked his raced very much and when he was entered in the Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 10, I felt he was a danger at 9-1 odds. First Dude was switched to a synthetic surface that day. He had run over the same surface at Keeneland in his debut last October going 7 furlongs, running a solid second. In the Blue Grass he raced evenly. The Dude chased in third from the start and ended up in that position at the wire, beaten 5-1/4 length. The winner Stately Victor freaked that day, closing from far off the pace to win by 4-1/4 lengths. He returned to run eighth in the Kentucky Derby. In second place was Romans’ other runner in the race, Paddy O’ Prado, who was 1 length clear of the Dude. First Dude had run another very respectable race after being bounced around at the start.
First Dude enters the Preakness off a 35 day layoff. Romans shipped him to Churchill, where he has had 2 workouts since the Bluegrass. On April 26 he worked 5F in a bullet 1:00-4/5 breezing in the mud. Last Saturday First Dude had his final drill for the Preakness, working a solid 5F in 1:00-3/5 at Churchill, which was the fastest of 13 works that morning. I felt he was a “live longshot” before the post draw, but getting the eleven hole will greatly compromise his chances.
(9) CARACORTADO (Machowsky Michael/Atkinson P)
Trainer Michael Machowsky has won a very high percentage of races this year with a limited number of starters. He has done a superb job of developing Caracortado into a very good 3 year old. Is it enough for him to be a danger in the Preakness?
Like several others in the field, there are question marks. First and foremost is that, with the exception of a maiden claiming win in his debut at Fairplex going 4-1/2F, all of his other 6 starts have been over synthetic surfaces. This is a major knock on him. Caracortado was 4 for 4 as a 2 year old, 3 wins coming in sprints and one around 2 turns. He would keep his streak going with a career best effort, winning the Grade 2 Robert Lewis at Santa Anita. In his last 2 starts, he ran third in the G2 San Felipe and fourth in the G2 Santa Anita Derby. Both races were better than they look on paper. Caracortado was victimized by slow paces set by the winner Sidney’s Candy and wide trips in each. What concerned me was that he was one paced, with little acceleration late. I also question his ability to be at his best stretching out to 1-3/16 miles in the Preakness. I feel he prefers races up to 1-1/16 miles. What Caracortado does possess is good tactical speed, which will place him in perfect striking position from the start. He will have every chance to fight on through the stretch, but I cannot envision him outstaying several others to the wire. I will only include him in my wagers when I press the ALL button.
(4) NORTHERN GIANT (Lukas D Wayne/Thompson T J)
Northern Giant is one of trainer D. Wayne Lukas’ entrants. The other is Dublin, who stands much more of a chance of running a competitive race than this colt. There is no reason to believe that Northern Giant has much of a chance in the Preakness. He has just one win, which was over the slop at Oaklawn in his sixth career start. Since that race, Northern giant ran second over polytrack in a weak Grade 2 stake at Turfway Park, and then was trounced when ninth, beaten 14 lengths in the Arkansas Derby. He is a one paced runner who is not agile and has not shown a strong punch in the stretch when needed. If I owned Northern Giant, you can be sure I would not run him in this spot, unless I was desperate for good seats for the Preakness. I will only use him in trifectas when I push the ALL button, and that even is a stretch for me.
Wagering Strategy
We will make a win bet on our top choice, and a small saver win bet on our third choice, Schoolyard Dreams, who I feel has a reasonable chance to win at big odds. In our exactas we'll concentrate on our top two choices, using them almost equally. We'll also use them both in the top slot in the trifecta play.
* A win bet on (7)LOOKIN AT LUCKY
* Small saver win bet on (2)SCHOOLYARD DREAMS
* Main exacta 7-8, reverse for less
* Secondary exacta box of 2-7-8 = $12 for every $2 wager
* Press with an exacta part-wheel: 7-8 over 2-6-10, reversing for half as much
* Trifecta part-wheel: 7-8 over 2-6-7-8-10 over 1-2-3-6-7-8-10-12 = $48 for a $1 wager
* Press with a trifecta part-wheel: 7-8 over 7-8 over ALL = $20 for a $1 wager.
Seabass
All picks should be win, place, show (2,4,8)
Race 1 - #8
Race 2 - #7
Race 3 - #7
Race 4 - #3
Race 5 - #1
Race 6 - Pass
Race 7 - #1 & #7
Race 8 - #9
Race 9 - #3
Race 10-#5
Race 11-#3
Race 12- #6 Jackson Bend (work in numbers 7,8,10 and 12 for exotics)
Race 13-#5
ATS Lock Club
Preakness Stakes
8 Super Saver
6 Jackson Bend
7 Lookin At Lucky
12 Dublin
5 Yawanna Twist
Bet the Top Horse to Win.
Use all 5 Horses for your Exacta Boxes, Trifecta Boxes and Superfecta Boxes.
DR. WHO & WHY
#1 AIKENITE (20-1)........Sire ' Yes Its True' was strictly a sprinter but this guy can handle the distance. Ive never taken the Derby Trial horses too serious in the triple crown races as they are typically a notch or 2 below the elite. Dangerous Castellano takes the mount but his very best would be 5th or 6th. Pass...............
#2 SCHOOLYARD DREAMS (15-1)........This guy is dangerous here as he has shown a nice turn of foot in The TB Derby while beating Saver Saver. The Effort in the Wood Mem is deceiving since Eskendereya won by approx 10 lgths, i fully expect a big effort here and should not go off 15-1. Capable Eibar Coa aboard.........
#3 PLEASANT PRINCE (20-1) Doubt he will be heard from in this race and looks more like a filler. Hot shot Leparoux takes the mount..........
#4 NORTHERN GIANT (30-1).........Another filler here as son of Giants Causeway has yet to win anything but a $34k maiden race. Over his head..........
#5 YAWANNA TWIST (30-1)..........Sire Yanaguska was a sprinter but this guy has yet to run a bad race and the dist is fine with him. May get his name called a couple times but looks a notch below. Dutrow/Prado combo gives him a board shot..........
#6 JACKSON BEND (12-1)............Gets a chance to make a statement here since he obviously didnt like the slop at Churchill. Another one who can run big if he gets a decent trip. Note he ran 2nd twice to Eskenderya and may be better than most of these. Smith keeps the mount. Dangerous..........
#7 LOOKIN AT LUCKY (3-1)........Can he get a nice trip and strutt his stuff?? Baffert replaces Gomez with Matt Garcia and he draws a nice post. Big opportunity for the 2yr old champ make amends. He is the real deal so lets see if he can avoid trouble. May end up going off favorite............
#8 SUPER SAVER (5-2).......Derby winner has Borel extremely confidant and who can argue with him?? Looks to be improving and may uncork his best in this spot. Another stalking rail trip with limited early speed in the race??..............
#9 CONCORTADO (10-1).......Although he looks tough as can be, i dont trust the West coast horses simply because they typically dont run to form. Jock/trainer combo has nice % but im leaning to others. Note his last workout on may 8 is at SA.......
#10 PADDY O PRADO (9-2).......Cant find fault with son of world-beater El Prado outside of el prado being a grass specialist. I dont think Paddy knows this since he has been fine on either one. Loomed boldly in the Derby at 12-1 barely missing place in the final strides. Cannot eliminate as he will emerge around the mile. Look out............
#11 FIRST DUDE (20-1)...........Looks over his head but should make a decent showing early on but doubt he can handle this type when the real running starts. Pass............
#12 DUBLIN (20-1).........D Wayne gets Gomez so this guy means business. Ill toss the derby for obvious reasons and expect a huge effort here. Son of Afleet Alex went for $525k so his best is coming. Better than 20-1 and is NOT outclassed . Upset shot but dont be too surprised.....
8-2-7-12