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Saturday, April 25: My Gulfstream Park Late Pick 4 Ticket

April 24, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

Gulfstream Park’s late Pick 4 on Saturday is highlighted by Unbridled Stakes for 3-year-olds and a lights-out scramble for outstanding older allowance and stakes types in the 11th.. There’s a good chance few knew these two would come up so competitive.
While the Unbridled is a solid one-turn mile stakes event and the 11th is a seven-furlong test that is as good a non-stakes as you could find.

Here’s a look at my Pick 4 ticket suggestion, which uses a 3x4x4x3 approach for $72 and runs from races 9-12:

Race 9 (Unbridled Stakes)
Dr Post is as intriguing as any in here as he makes just his third career start. After a 4th at Belmont in his only start of 2019, he fired a dandy for trainer Todd Pletcher in his first at Gulfstream off a vacation of nearly nine months as he came off the pace for a maiden win in a rapid 1:22 1-5. The Quality Road colt has effortless put down some good works and gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., who is back after some time off.
South Bend spent his last three on the turf and had good results in each, including a fast-closing third in the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes. He won the Street Sense over the dirt at Churchill last year, is in good form and will probably run on late. Attachment Rate is another in play on the ticket after his third in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct. He’s finished with energy in his last three and is a legit threat.

Race 10
This distance turf race for $35,000 claimers (N3L) has so many good options that it’s difficult to trim is down to even four, which was the case here.
New Year goes after his third straight win after he was 0-of-11 to begin his career. To say he’s figured it out is an understatement, and his wins over the turf at GP were powerful. Stock Trade, Crypto Gold, Noble Hope also have run well lately and also stand a serious chance.

Race 11
This one is graded stakes-quality as Global Campaign returns to the races and is surrounded by proven runners in good form.
Global Campaign draws a decent group of opponents as he makes his first start since running third in Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes, finishing behind New York stalwarts Tax and Tacitus. Prior to that he beat eventual Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston.
There is plenty of serious competition here, including Soldado, winner of three of five, and Spinoff, who ran in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, as well as the Belmont Derby. He ended his campaign with an easy win at Saratoga. Also on the ticket is the speedy Yorkton, who was second at Gulfstream last out. He often shows speed and can be very dangerous if able to get clear early.

Race 12
Maiden-claimers round out the action, and W W Archie, With a Bit of Luck and Annualized are worthy of inclusion.
W W Archie was third in his last two and has been steadily stepping down the ladder. With a Bit of Luck has raced just once, but it was against a higher level and he led for a half-mile. He was on the turf and now moves over to the main track.
Annualized drops to his lowest level and was a closing fourth on turf last time. He was third on dirt once last year.

Here’s the suggested play for the late Pick 4 Saturday at Gulfstream Park:
9) #3 Dr Post, #5 South Bend, #7 Attachment Rate.
10) #3 New Year, #4 Stock Trade, #6 Crypto Gold, #7 Noble Hope.
11) #2 Soldado, #4 Spinoff, #5 Global Campaign, #9 Yorkton.
12) #7 W W Archie, #8 With a Bit of Luck, #9 Annualized.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 3-5-7 with 3-4-6-7 with 2-4-5-9 with 7-8-9 ($72)
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Race of the Week: Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream Park

April 24, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

$75,000 UNBRIDLED STAKES AT GULFSTREAM PARK
Saturday, April 25, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Seven 2020 Triple Crown nominees match up in a race named for the 1990 Kentucky Derby winner. The 1-1/16 miles Unbridled Stakes will be the first 2-turn test for 4 of the 7 aspirants. Race 9 on the 12-race card, the Unbridled kicks off the day's late pick four sequence.

​Field Depth:
SOUTH BEND is a listed stakes winner and Grade 3-placed. SOROS has the field's only other open-company listed stakes win, while RELENTLESS DANCER has won in Louisiana-bred stakes company. ATTACHMENT RATE is Grade 3-placed. RELENTLESS DANCER and SOUTH BEND have tackled the toughest competition, but there's not an overwhelming class edge here. The race is capable of being won on the class rise.

Pace:
Pace projections are tough with 4 of 7 runners stretching out from 1-turn races. RELENTLESS DANCER may be the most committed to a front-running style, but expect some of the sprinters to force the issue.

Our Eyes:
ATTACHMENT RATE caught the eye with 2 sharp rallies during the Gulfstream Park Championship Meet. The second netted a commanding maiden breaker that set him up for the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct. The Dale Romans trainee managed third in the Gotham behind front-running Mischievous Alex, but the Gotham's slow final quarter in 26-2/5 did not inspire confidence for additional distance. While his pedigree suggests 1-1/16 miles around 2 turns should be in his arsenal, ATTACHMENT RATE's visual clues tip me that he may be more effective as a closing sprinter. Leading jockey Luis Saez has dominated the local colony and will give him every chance to prove he's worthy of the trip.

RELENTLESS DANCER finished fourth while attending the pace over this 1-1/16 miles trip in both the G3 Holy Bull and G2 Tampa Bay Derby. The former effort came at Gulfstream against the powerful duo of eventual Florida Derby winner Tiz the Law and eventual Fountain of Youth champ Ete Indien. He should be forwardly placed toward the inside and that's advantageous over this assignment. RELENTLESS DANCER has trained well since the Tampa Bay Derby, including a Gulfstream bullet 5 furlongs in 1:00 flat on April 11.

DR POST is the X-factor, taking on stakes performers and a route distance for the first time. Todd Pletcher's well-bred Quality Road colt turned heads March 29 with a deft closing kick at 7 furlongs. His first start since July netted a massive 109 BRIS late pace figure. The 2-turn question remains the key hurdle; his mama Mary Delaney was an outstanding sprinter, winning Keeneland's Grade 2 Madision at 7 furlongs. Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the mount as he returns to action from a self-imposed pandemic break from work.

Trainer Stan Hough has the duo of SOUTH BEND and NECKER ISLAND as separate betting interests. SOUTH BEND has been more accomplished and faced rock-solid grass sophomores like Field Pass, Vitalogy and Decorated Invader in his last 3 starts. The transition back to dirt should not be a big issue; he won the Street Sense on dirt at Churchill and was fourth in the local Mucho Macho Man Stakes in January. NECKER ISLAND has not extended around 2 turns in 5 starts, but has a middle-distance pedigree. He's drawn nicely on the rail for this 1-1/16 miles configuration.

SOROS, winner of the 1-turn mile Smooth Air Stakes, disappointed in his 2020 return bid in allowance company March 27. The Commissioner colt did have a bit of late life in that one and may be set to improve some around 2 turns.

AMERICANUS exits a solid 7-furlong allowance victory over quality rivals Violent City and Silver Ratio. The Belmont fall debut winner was well-beaten in the Grade 3 Nashua last fall, but has run well twice at age 3 and appears to be developing the right direction for Mark Hennig. The War Front colt has not routed, but his second dam was Unbridled Lassie, third in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks going long.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: SOUTH BEND is 7-for-8 in the superfecta lifetime and proven over distance and class.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: NECKER ISLAND showed more talent at 2 than he displayed so far this year. If he wakes up on the stretch-out from the rail, he could offer a nice price play in the mix.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $100 win SOUTH BEND.
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Saturday, April 25: My Oaklawn Park Late Pick 4 Ticket

April 23, 2020

Picks from Racing Analyst, Jonathon Van Dine

It’s another phenomenal Saturday of racing at Oaklawn Park and the day’s co-features – the $125,000 Carousel and $100,000 Bachelor – have attracted some serious racehorses. The Bachelor, which goes as Race 9, drew Bob Baffert’s superstar three-year-old Eight Rings, while Race 10, the Carousel, marks the seasonal debut of Bellafina and also attracted Steve Asmussen’s star mare, Mia Mischief.

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Here's my take on the Late Pick 4:

Race 8 (5:14PM ET) – Allowance ($62K)

Oaklawn kicks off its late pick 4 with a difficult allowance race going 6 furlongs. This race seems to revolve around #4 SNEAKING OUT. If she can revert back to her form when Hollendorfer had her in April and May of 2019 then she will be very tough to beat. She is 6-4-2-0 in one-turn races, and Hollendorfer is 25% of the layoff. However, this will be the first time she has left California and the layoff does concern me a little bit. I am going to use multiple horses in this leg starting with #1 FLAT OUT SPEED who has done nothing wrong in her first 3 starts. #5 NOMIZAR could get a very nice stalking trip in this race as there is quite a bit of speed lined up here. I will also use #8 READY TO RUNAWAY and #9 BYE BYE J to round out this first leg.

Pick 4 Horse(s): #1 FLAT OUT SPEED (12/1), #4 SNEAKING OUT (7/2), #5 NOMIZAR (9/2), #8 READY TO RUNAWAY (6/1), #9 BYE BYE J (4/1)

Race 9 (5:45PM ET) – Bachelor Stakes ($100K)

The Bachelor Stakes has a few familiar rivals once again going up against each other. #9 LONG WEEKEND was victorious over #1 LITTLE MENACE, #2 BEAU OXY, and #5 LYKAN. LONG WEEKEND was able to go right to the front, and never look back winning by more than 4 lengths in the end. It would seem to be a difficult task for any of those 3 to turn the tables here so we’ll use LONG WEEKEND and then look elsewhere. #7 EIGHT RINGS won the Grade 1 American Pharaoh by 6 before struggling in the BC Juvenile. This is obviously a much easier spot, and is a must use. I am also going to use #3 ECHO TOWN coming off a nice $90K Allowance win at Oaklawn Park.

Pick 4 Horse(s): #3 ECHO TOWN (9/2), #7 EIGHT RINGS (5/2), #9 LONG WEEKEND (3/1)

Race 10 (6:16PM ET) – Carousel Stakes ($125K)

The feature race of the day sees #1 BELLAFINA ship into Oaklawn Park to face 7 rivals. She has been installed as the 8/5 favorite, and I will be singling in this race. However, I will not be singling BELLAFINA. I am looking to the far outside in the #8 MIA MISCHIEF. She had an easy win at Oaklawn Park off the lay-off albeit against very weak competition, but that race was used to tighten her up for the Carousel Stakes. She draws favorably on the outside and should sit a very good trip. I would definitely understand going 2 deep and using BELLAFINA, but she has never really come close to winning a race outside of California. I will single here in hopes that going deep legs 1 and 4 will pay-off.

Pick 4 Horse(s): #8 MIA MISCHIEF (9/2)

Race 11: (6:47PM ET) – Maiden Special Weight ($60K)

The nightcap is a tough maiden special event, and honestly, this is race where it is tough for me to a very strong opinion. Singling Mia Mischief will afford me the ability to go deep in this leg which I most certainly will. We’ll start with #1 COPPER KING who draws the rail, but doesn’t have a lot of speed. He has shown the ability to sit mid-pack which he’ll need here. It will likely be too difficult to drop back and circle the field. #3 VIOLENT PASS went off at 9-2 against similar last time out and lost all chance at the start and then raced wide. Given the 15-1 morning line I will give this one another shot. Joel Rosario picks up the mount on #4 UNRIGHTEOUS who was overmatched in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, but obviously gets back to easier competition here and is the one to beat. #6 AZTEC EMPIRE is another logical horse to use in here after finishing 3rd in a $60K MSW last out. I will also use #9 RONAMO, #11 On d’Oro, and if the #13 SCALE draws in, he will also be included on the ticket.

Pick 4 Horse(s): #1 COPPER KING (7/2), #3 VIOLENT PASS (15/1), #4 UNRIGHTEOUS (5/2), #6 AZTEC EMPIRE (5/1), #9 RONAMO (10/1), #11 ON D'ORO (8/1), #13 SCALE (6/1) (AE)

My Ticket

Race 8: 1, 4, 5, 8, 9
Race 9: 3, 7, 9
Race 10: 8
Race 11: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9, 11, 13
Ticket Cost: $52.50 for 50-cents

I am looking at $52.50 for 50-cents as it stands now. If you are a big fan of Bellafina in the Carousel, then it probably wouldn’t be difficult to pare down the first leg to just two horses to allow you to include Bellafina.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 Twisted Fashion Finished 3rd in a Derby last out and should be ultra tough in this allowance; has been on the board in 6 of 8 and looks like the one to beat here.
#4 High Rate of Fury Was 2nd and 3rd under the wire and was moved up one spot in each via disqualification; has trained well for his 1st of the year.
#1 Wired Special Was three-quarters of a length behind the top pick here last time and is capable of another big effort along the inside.
Race Summary Twisted Fashion has been fairly close to the always-tough Southern Electric and should be very difficult for others to handle.

Remington Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 Crossing Boundaries Was mid-pack in a Derby trial and had a troubled start vs. maiden specials; capable of moving up on the class drop.
#4 One Fabulous Royal Was in tough spots in her 1st two races and was roughed up at the start of early; can be a factor with a clean start.
#7 Bv My Guy Failed vs. maiden specials in his only start and should improve on this class drop.
Race Summary Crossing Boundaries has been taking on good foes and this class drop should put her over the top.

Remington Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#9 High Rate Runaway Lost his chance last time when an opponent forced him to the outside; drops in class and can wake up here.
#1 Easier To Lie Was 5th, beaten a length in each of her last two and make a run along the rail; dangerous.
#7 Sweet Blazin Fire Ran an even 4th at a higher level last time and is eligible to show improvement in her return.
Race Summary High Rate Runaway's last race is a throw-out due to trouble and he has several races on his form that would be good enough to win this.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 We Five Intriguing sort had to go two turns on turf on debut and didn't do much running, but Terranova isn't a guy that cranks them too often, is 22% turf-to-dirt, and this one gets a huge jock switch to Centeno as well; thinking this may have been the plan all along.
#3 Rollick Dangerous returnee hasn't been out in over 13 months and now goes from Clement to Stidham, but this sharp barn is 26% off extended layoffs, and 22% with newcomers to the barn, and the debut was solid, and she's another bred for the main track; very scary.
#5 Bourbon Rebellion The best of the dirt runners didn't fire on turf last time but her debut 5th here on dirt was solid, so she'll like the surface switch, though though note initial run was at 54-1, so taking 3-1 or so here isn't all that appealing; logical contender, albeit at underlaid odds.
Race Summary There's a lot to like about the 2, especially the cutback to one-turn and switch to the main track, and the price as well, not to mention the competition isn't all that tough, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, as she should be a square price, which would knock out a lot of tickets right off the bat.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#8 Vivamente Thomas firster goes for a barn that knows how to get them ready (14% on debut), drew the perfect outside attack post, meets two slow favorites who don't inspire in the least, and has a slew of AM works for her unveiling; look out.
#2 I'mthekatsmeow The chalk was a well-beaten 2nd off the long break last time, so she could be tighter here, but she was also favored last time, they expected a lot, and her run was timed with a sundial, so she's got no margin for error; trying to beat.
#1 Hifalutin Money burner was a neck behind the chalk last time, has lost at 6-1 or less in all six career starts, and her five underneath slices tells you what you need to know about desire, plus she's never gained in the stretch in any start; no thanks.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 8, as she has to be live and taking money against a group like this, and provided she is, you can play her aggressively to win and place, though you'll get some added value by keying her in the early Pk5/Pk4, since the two proven gals don't look like much, and yet they'll take plenty of action in both sequences.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#10 Forevernoa Longshot firster goes for a Hinsley barn that is just 2-for-44 on the year, but there's an abundance of AM activity on display, especially going long, young sire Constitution has proven to be very precocious, and the rest of this group don't look like much; bombs away.
#1 Recoded The chalk will get bet hard for Wilkes, and she's best on paper, but also 0-for-5 with no upside, has a tricky rail draw, and doesn't have a lot of speed either, so sure, she's the most likely winner, but in the 7-5 range she looks like a big underlay; backwheel time.
#4 Ski Bunny The first of two firsters for Proctor is probably the better of the two as well, since Gallardo lands here and there's three bullets in the holster, but this is a 3% debut barn, so it's unlikely she's cranked, and as a Union Rags filly, she may want longer too; tabbing today.
Race Summary You'll get value galore on the 10, and you need to, as she's an admitted reach, but there are a few positives, and if you only have to beat the 1, then the mountain to climb isn't all that high, so give her a look in all the slots, and even to end the late Pk5/Pk4, as she could surprise, and a win would completely blow up both sequences.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#10 Katara Pass Has no business sticking around late after chasing a fast opening quarter going long last out, but the two-back run would certainly keep him in the mix.
#1 Took a Cab Cutback player might get a cozy go from the inside. He owns route pace and can probably stick close enough to have a shot to finish.
#2 Quick Charge Gets blinkers on for this one, but I fear that he isn't going to finish this race with much energy as his previous BRIS Late Pace figures leave a bit to be desired.
Race Summary Katara Pass would intrigue at something like the 6/1 ML price. I'm willing to draw a line through that last one and give him a chance here based on the two-back sprint try.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#11 Dark Ages Was the runner that made the first move into a quick pace last out, and he predictably flattened out after that wide run. He's capable of getting a better trip, even with today's wide draw.
#7 Cause for Pardon Wondering if this guy is going to get bet below fair value here while dropping in class and adding blinkers. Think he's a win threat, but demand a fair price.
#5 The Mighty Judge Dropper wasn't off by much last time out, and the barn lures Irad to the saddle for this one. Think he's going to be tough, but potentially underlaid.
Race Summary Dark Ages will have to work out a trip from a wide post, but his last run was better than it looks on paper given the race flow and when he moved, and perhaps a softer race shape will benefit him today.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#10 Miss Behave Price swing only went evenly last time out, but she has since come back with an unusually quick bullet work, and she can probably step forward here at a big price.
#6 Catch a Thrill Has never really run a bad one around one turn, and those last two Saratoga races would definitely make her a player here. She'll have to run big off the bench to handle a decent group.
#9 Miss Miami Has been away a few months, but the turf sprint form isn't too far off what it'd take to score here. Chance to make some noise at a price.
Race Summary #4 Smack an #7 Catharsis are the two morning line favorites, and while I suppose they could win, neither of them really does a whole lot for me on paper in this spot, and that led me to price shop for a runner like Miss Behave who doesn't have to come forward much at all. Not sure she's 20/1 here, but she's still interesting at something a bit shorter.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 Eye M Smokin Opened a clear lead and then was caught late last time out; has the speed again and will be doubly tough as he drew the rail.
#6 Petes Favorite Drew outside in the Pauls Valley last time and takes a big class drop; was 3rd in three races leading up to his last one and fits well with these.
#7 Bubba Bad Ran down Eye M Smokin last time out and goes for his 4th straight win; winning out of the No. 7 post won't be easy.
Race Summary Eye M Smokin has speed and the rail and might get loose again; one to catch.

Remington Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#9 Packsaddle Senator Was a solid 3rd in a trial in her only start and can move on to bigger and better things after this one; looks like a maiden winner.
#1 Wyngnutt Had some trouble at the start and still ran 4th in his debut; tough with a clean trip.
#5 Dr Gold Digger Has a pair of good works to his credit and likely will show some run in his 1st test.
Race Summary Packsaddle Senator just missed vs. futurity trial company, drops to the maiden ranks and is the one to hold off here.

Remington Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#10 Tough to Bee Has won more than $735,000 and comes off a 3rd in the Mr Jet Moore; ready for his 1st win in two years.
#12 Zoomn On Bye Was a closing 2nd in a derby trial last out and could improve in his 2nd over the strip.
#9 This is a Deal Too Had trouble in his last two but has several too starts to his credit and is a regular in stakes races; had a tough trip 1st out.
Race Summary Tough to Bee has a class advantage and is rounding back into good form; capable of a big finish.
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