Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 6/6/20

Mike McClure

UFC 250

Top Picks

Amanda Nunes
Herbert Burns
Sean O'Malley
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Kyle Marley

UFC 250

He won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past 15 months, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up more than $20,000!

Marley has hit a WHOPPING eight consecutive UFC main-event picks, including five straight upsets! Last week at UFC Fight Night, he accurately predicted a dominant decision win for Gilbert Burns (+150) against Tyron Woodley (-170).

Amanda Nunes (-600) vs. Felicia Spencer (+450): Nunes via TKO

Aside from a submission, I don't see how Spencer wins. Nunes is the better fighter everywhere and she should dominate, especially on the feet. I doubt Nunes goes for takedowns, so if Spencer can't get any herself, I see her getting finished in round 1 or 2.

Cody Garbrandt (-145) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+125): Garbrandt via decision

Garbrandt is the better boxer and has a lot more power as well. Assuncao is the better grappler and the guy with higher fight IQ. Garbrandt is the better wrestler, so he should be able to keep this fight on the feet and, as long as he doesn't charge in with his chin up, I think he will get the win. Assuncao doesn't have big power, so I am not as worried about Garbrandt's chin. He should be landing more volume and has the better shot at a knockout.

Aljamain Sterling (-115) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-105): Sandhagen via stoppage

I love this fight. Sandhagen has a big edge on the feet and Sterling should have a decent edge on the ground. Sterling is going to look to be all the way out, or all the way in for this fight. He wants to work his kicks and his ground game, and Sandhagen should be trying to close the distance on the feet and stuffing takedowns. Sterling doesn't have great wrestling but Sandhagen doesn't have great takedown defense, so if Sterling wins this fight it will come through grappling. I like Sandhagen a lot more on the feet here though and he is dangerous on the ground himself, so I am going to lean with him as my pick here and the big difference will be his punches landing much more than Sterling's kicks.

Neil Magny (-145) vs. Anthony Rocco Martin (+125): Martin by decision

Neil is going to be the longer fighter here with a 7-inch reach advantage, and if he uses it, I think that will help him a lot on the feet here. I think he should look to land a lot of jabs and front kicks to keep Martin on the outside, and with this likely being a slower paced fight, that could get him the win here. Martin should look to chop down Magny's legs with kicks and that could change how this fight goes. Either guy could have success with takedowns, but I see this mainly staying on the feet. If this was a pickem' fight, I would lean with Magny. However, I think this is dog or pass on the betting line, so I will go with Martin as my pick here.

Sean O'Malley (-440) vs. Eddie Wineland (+360): O'Malley via TKO

I think O'Malley is the better fighter everywhere and I think he can win by knockout, submission or decision. Wineland should look to turn this into a brawl and, if he can do that, a knockout is his chance at a win. I see O'Malley picking him apart and picking up a finish of his own in round 2 or 3.

Chase Hooper (-150) vs. Alex Caceres (+130): Hooper via submission

I favor Caceres on the feet but I like Hooper when the fight hits the mat. I don't see Hooper accepting a striking fight and I think he will look for takedowns. I see him locking up a submission at some point, but he isn't a good wrestler, so it could be a sweat until he gets it to the mat. Caceres doesn't really have one-shot power, and that is what I would worry more with against Hooper.

Ian Heinisch (-125) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+105): Meerschaert via decision

I think this is a close fight on the feet with the edge going to Heinisch, although Meerschaert has been looking better in the striking department. I like him on the mat in and I expect him to look for takedowns throughout. If he can get it to the mat, I think he can lock up a submission. But I think he can keep this fight close enough in the striking to where any ground action from him could steal a round or make it clearer for the judges.

Cody Stamann (-275) vs. Brian Kelleher (+235): Stamann via decision

I see this one being close on the feet, but Stamann having a big edge in the wrestling department. I think a guillotine from Kelleher is in play, but he needs that or a knockout to get the win. I think Stamann will be too much for him with the wrestling and he has the cardio to put up a high pace for 15 minutes.

Charles Byrd (-170) vs. Maki Pitolo (+150): Byrd via submission

I like Byrd here. I think he is the more powerful striker on the feet, but I like him more for his ground game in this one. I think he has a big wrestling edge and he could get a submission or ground-and-pound finish. On the feet, Pitolo is the better boxer and has power himself, but Byrd is solid there and I think he could win a striking match as well.

Alex Perez (-140) vs. Jussier Formiga (+120): Perez via decision

If Perez doesn't get submitted, he should win this fight. I like Perez a lot more in the striking department and he is the better wrestler as well. I don't see Formiga being able to land takedowns, so I think he needs to get Perez's back to have a chance. I doubt he can backpack him long enough to win on the scorecards, so I think he has to lock up a submission to have a chance and I don't see that happening.

Alonzo Menifield (-220) vs. Devin Clark (+190): Menifield via TKO

Clark is the better wrestler in this fight, but he is going to need to use it the entire time to get a win here. He needs takedowns every round or he needs to get a finish with GNP or a submission. I think Clark is in trouble on the feet if he can't get it to the mat and a KO from Menifield is the most likely outcome in my opinion. I think he is good enough to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet and I see him landing a big shot at some point and putting Clark away.

Herbert Burns (-240) vs. Evan Dunham (+200): Burns via submission

I used to be high on Dunham, but now he is 38 years old and hasn't looked good in four years. Burns had a big win in his UFC debut and his brother is coming off a huge win last weekend, so his confidence is probably riding high. I think this could be close on the feet, but I favor Burns there and I think he has a big edge on the ground.
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Race of the Week: Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita

June 4, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

GRADE 1 $300,000 HOLLYWOOD GOLD CUP AT SANTA ANITA
Saturday, June 6, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Seven stakes muscle the marquee Saturday at the Great Race Place, including the 3-year-old spotlights in the Santa Anita Oaks and the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. But the time-honored Hollywood Gold Cup gets the last major word in Race 10 of 11 on a card that begins at 12:30 pm PT. Inaugurated in 1938 and won immediately by the legendary Seabiscuit, the Hollywood Gold Cup has been a Southern California mainstay for 82 years. It was contested as the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in recent years since the closure of Hollywood Park, but was re-branded to its historical roots for this year's renewal.

​Field Depth:
HIGHER POWER and IMPROBABLE are Grade 1 winners among the field of 6. MIDCOURT and TENFOLD are Grade 1-placed, in addition to owning victories at the Grade 2 and Grade 3 levels, respectively. BROWN STORM was Group 1-placed in Chile, while PARSIMONY is Grade 3-placed stateside and a listed stakes winner in the United Arab Emirates. HIGHER POWER has kept the strongest company lines over his last 4 races, though arguably all except PARSIMONY have competed at similarly high levels.

Pace:
Rail-drawn PARSIMONY is a former sprinter who likely will be asked for early speed. BROWN STORM set the tone in the Santa Anita Handicap and should be among the first flight again. MIDCOURT typically has been on or near the lead in recent starts, but the removal of blinkers might put him in more of a tracking position or mid-pack. IMPROBABLE and HIGHER POWER would be candidates to be in a similar spot to MIDCOURT. Given the most likely early speed horses won't be highly respected, the runner who sits third in this race could be in the driver's seat at the top of the stretch. TENFOLD will be the field's pronounced late runner.

Our Eyes:
Trainers who have won 11 this race 11 times are back in the mix, as well as the usual power barns in Santa Anita stakes.

Bob Baffert owns 5 victories in the Hollywood Gold Cup between 1999-2017 and has IMPROBABLE on the strech-out. Last year's beaten favorite in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness has lost 6 straight graded stakes, but ran a dynamite second to top-class Tom's d'Etat in a salty edition of the listed Oaklawn Mile in April. He's had a series of 6 and 7-furlong workouts since then, a sign Baffert recognizes he needs to pump some stamina into this son of City Zip. IMPROBABLE has struggled to close the deal in races at 1-1/8 miles or more. Also note that horses exiting 1-mile races are 0-11 in Santa Anita's 1-1/4 miles dirt stakes races since 2013.

MIDCOURT was beaten favorite at 3-5 in the March 7 Santa Anita Handicap over this same course and distance. While he may appear to have been 'hanging' when third in that spot, his 105 BRIS late pace figure showed a stronger number than the visual may suggest. He's posted 103, 113 and 105 late pace figures in his 3 races this winter-spring at Santa Anita. MIDCOURT's 3 wins at Santa Anita on the dirt are more than the rest of the field combined (2). Trainer John Shirreffs, 4-12 at the meet in stakes ($1.88 ROI for every $1 bet) removes the blinkers and will be give a leg up to 2-time Hollywood Gold Cup winner Victor Espinoza.

HIGHER POWER has not been seen since disappointing as the 5-2 favorite in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup in January at Gulfstream Park. He has worked continuously since then with no discernible break in his training, though Sadler did bypass the Santa Anita Handicap with this son of Medaglia d'Oro. HIGHER POWER finished fifth in last year's Gold Cup after transferring to the Sadler barn from Mike Stidham. This barn won the 2015 Gold Cup (Hard Aces) and 2018 (Accelerate). Notably, Sadler and Baffert have combined to win 10 of the 18 stakes at Santa Anita on dirt at 1-1/4 miles since 2013, notching 5 apiece.

TENFOLD, third to Justify in the 2018 Preakness, has been steady, but not spectacular, into his 5-year-old season. His best work has come at Pimlico, winning last year's Pimlico Special over this 1-1/4 miles distance. We know the trip won't be beyond his scope as this Curlin colt owns 102+ BRIS late pace figures in 5 of his last 7 races. His troubled trip behind By My Standards in the New Orleans Handicap was flattered when that rival came back to impress again in the Oaklawn Handicap. Two-time Gold Cup winner Mike Smith rides as TENFOLD tries to follow 2019 shipper Vino Rosso's success in this race in back-to-back years.

The Gold Cup longshots figure to be BROWN STORM, fourth after leading the Santa Anita Handicap at 24-1 in his return to dirt; and PARSIMONY, a winner in Dubai over 10 furlongs in February and with a solid 5: 1-3-0 mark on the Santa Anita main track prior to his travels. Trainer Doug O'Neill seeks a fifth Hollywood Gold Cup win if PARSIMONY can pull the surprise. He won this race with Sky Jack in 2002 and then the 2005-'07 editions in succession with Lava Man.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: MIDCOURT is 6-for-6 in the money at Santa Anita since coming to the John Shirreffs barn and returning from a lengthy layoff to start 2019.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: TENFOLD won't be any better than fourth betting choice and should relish the distance. If the pace is even fair, he's got a chance to make them sweat late.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $90 exacta MIDCOURT over TENFOLD. $10 exacta TENFOLD over MIDCOURT.
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Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

June 6, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

It is the first Saturday night of harness racing at the Meadowlands since the lockdown. The Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6 and will be my focus. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Another Daily Copy (15-1)-Rolled the back half at Gateway Farms in 56.1 and has won 25% of Big M starts. Likes to race up front and should do so here. Will take a swing for a price and the Johnson barn was having a good 2020.
4-Western Joe (3-1)-Joe knows his way to the Big M winner's circle and has won over $300k in East Rutherford. Gets a nice post draw and Berry should put in play.
6-Closing Statement (9/2)-Raced evenly in qualifier but the winner is in with Prfd company tonight and the mile went in 150.4. Could offer a square price and McCarthy should have in play. Did have a 54.1 last half in qualifier.
7-Alluneedisfaith N (8-1)-Qualified at the Big M and the fractions were swift. Usually does best work on a smaller oval but will use in this spot instead of #10, the 2nd program chalk.

Race 7

1-Very Very Fast (10-1)-Didn't show much in Gateway Farms qualifier but fits well with this bunch and does have 4 wins in 16 starts at the Big M. Likes to get on the engine and could play that hand here or sit a 2-hole trip.
2-Muscle Fashion (8-1)-Qualified at the Big M and that shouldn't hurt. Usually shows up from an inside post at this class. Will look for a price in this race and leave #10 the program chalk out of the mix.
5-Oberto (9/2)-Qualifier was fine, but the pace was dull. This guy is trip dependent but can roll late. Will respect chances because pace could be quick as the morning line chalk, #10 will probably blast out.
6-My Lindy Winner (12-1)-Looking for another price and trying to beat the two program chalks #8 and #10. Qualified with some tough customers, Southwind Chrome and Crystal Fashion, but did race the back half in 55.4.

Race 8

3-Mohawk Warrior (5-1)-Is 0-5 at the Big M and usually is performing at Yonkers. Did race the back half in 54.3 in tune-up and Tetrick stays aboard tonight. Could get sucked around and roll by late at a square price.
7-The Bettormack N (3-1)-Aussie import seems to have found a nice spot to win US debut. Qualified at the Big M and sizzled the 2nd half in 54.2, best to respect.

Race 9

1-Shnitzledosomethin (7/2)-Five-year-old tuned up nicely and appears ready for a big try off the bench. Likes to race on top or close to the lead and had a 149.1 lifetime mark here in 2019.
5-Dorsoduro Hanover (9/2)-Burke trainee qualified nicely and looks ready for a top effort. Has only 1 win in 9 starts at the Big M but should like the company this evening.
7-None Bettor A (3-1)-Qualified on Lasix in 150.4 at Gateway and is a perfect 6-6 in East Rutherford. Tetrick could blast out and get on the engine or land in the 2-hole. Harris trainee looks dangerous with a decent trip.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,4,6,7/1,2,5,6/3,7/1,5,7
Total Bet=$48
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Eddie Olczyk's RUNHAPPY Santa Anita Derby Day Spot Plays

June 5, 2020

On what is traditionally Belmont Stakes Saturday, we’re instead greeted with an 11-race card from Santa Anita headlined by the Grade 1 RUNHAPPY Santa Anita Derby. And while New York will have its day in two weeks, this Saturday is all about California.

With heavy hitters like Authentic, Improbable, Higher Power, Swiss Skydiver and highly touted first-time starter Cezanne among the entries, finding value – and betting it accordingly – is extremely important to coming out ahead on Saturday. You may have to alter your normal approach to make sure you are getting your money’s worth in horizontal and vertical bets.

But hey, we’re horesplayers and that’s what we do. I’ve handicapped the card and identified two horses I really like in early races. The early part of the card features the low-takeout Player’s Pick 5 (Races 1 – 5), the Early Pick 4 (Races 2 – 5), Rolling Pick 3’s and Doubles, as well as traditional single-race bets like the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta.

Consider these horses in those races and let’s try to start the day by boosting the bankroll with a few nice tickets!

Race 3 (4:31PM ET) – Allowance Optional Claiming
#4 Kneedeepinsnow (5/2)

I think #4 KNEEDEEPINSNOW has a big tactical advantage over the field as he is the ‘speed of the speed’ and should be able to dictate the flow of the race on the front-end. He nearly won at this level last time out – beaten just a head at odds of 24/1 – and while he won’t be that long of a price on Saturday, I’m still hoping he offers a fair price. His last two conventional dirt track races were excellent and he’s a must-use horse for me and a potential single in the Early Pick 5.

Race 4 (5:01PM ET) – Desert Code Stakes
#1 Phantom Boss (6/1)

Let’s take a shot at a first-time turf horse, #1 PHANTOM BOSS, in the $75,000 Desert Code Stakes. He is a son of 2011 Preakness winner Shackleford and I love betting his sons and daughters on the grass. Plus the rail draw (as opposed to a very difficult outside post last time) and addition of blinkers simplifies things a bit for PHANTOM BOSS. I think he’s the quickest of these early and I’d like to see Tiago Pereira put him on the lead and try to take this bunch gate-to-wire. And since he has no prior turf form, we should get a fair price on him, hopefully 5/1 or higher.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Binkster Pace presser finally draws a good attack post after being mired down inside of late, yet he still ran well, and now, with this ideal draw, in a modest race with two favorites who don't have to win, he seems in the right spot; look out.
#1 Syndergaard Deserving favorite is all class and wins this on his best, but he got blitzed last time, drew terribly here, and has made one start since last May, so you're allowed to wonder if he's lost some heat off his fastball; trying to beat on top.
#5 Morning Breez Logical sort beat the pick by a neck last time, so you know he's a big threat here, and he always runs his race, but the circumstances are reversed here, and he won't be getting all the best of it over the 6; using him underneath only.
Race Summary That 4-1 ML seems more than fair on the 6, as he finally gets a good post, so play him aggressively to win and place, and to end the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's been running big under extenuating circumstances, and now he should finally be able to fire his best shot.

Belmont Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Payne Up and comer has won three straight and in lieu of his stakes debut, catches the heavy favorite prepping off the long layoff, and should trip out just off the speed as well; upset special.
#9 Code of Honor Stiff favorite and last year's Travers winner is eons the most talented here, but also hasn't been out since Nov., and is prepping for the GI Met Mile, so he may need this; backwheel time.
#2 Monogahela Capable sort did heady things for Jason Servis, and we all know what that means, so while new trainer Brown is aces, there's a chance he regresses away from his old barn; tread lightly.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 4, and if he wins it will be the last time you see him in the 6-1 range, so play him in all the slots, and especially in the mandatory payoff Empire 6, and to kick off the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since budget players will be singling the 9, even though it's the pick who is the now horse on the upswing, and the time is ripe to beat the heavy favorite.

Belmont Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#10 Mind Control Working class hero does nothing but bring his lunch pail to the party every time and run his eyeballs out, and sure, he's not always flashy, but he's game as heck, seems better than ever, loves 7Fs (6-4-0-1), and will get plenty of pace to rally into; keeps on keeping on.
#2 Performer Dangerous newcomer was all the rage in the 3yo ranks to end 2020, and the fact Shug runs him here off a Nov. break about says it all, but this inside draw won't make it easy, and note he really got good going two turns, so this could be a it sharp; still, plenty scary.
#11 Vekoma GII-winning 3yo returned with aplomb with a powerful AOC romp at this trip at GP, in very fast time too, but this group is a lot tougher, and he'll be wide every step of the way, so sure, he can win, but his margin for error is a slim one, at false odds too; underlaid contender.
Race Summary You should get fair value on the 10, as both the 2 and 11 are sexier picks, but this guy is all class, and knows how to get it done in the lane, so play him in all the slots, and especially in the mandatory payoff Empire 6, and the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he could fall through the wagering cracks a bit, and a win as the third-choice will add value to all three sequences.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 Aaron's Tap Might get a dreamy trip if some longshot pace presses the favorite drawn just outside of him, and he should be a fair price as the second choice.
#3 Dr. Feelgood Dangerous pace player will wing it out of the gate, but he's not used to having horses be quick enough to keep up with him early, and on his best day, #4 Freedom Is Ringing can really burn in the early parts, too. Might be vulnerable at a short price.
#1 Last Print Will have to work out a trip from the fence, but he's fast enough to be in the mix early with a rating gear that gives his rider a couple options based on the break.
Race Summary Aaron's Tap gets his best chance if Freedom is Ringing blasts off a :21 and change quarter to hassle Dr. Feelgood -- or at least keep him from getting a breather -- potentially leaving that chalk leg weary late.

Charles Town - Race #4
Picks Notes
#5 Vaunt Probably isn't going to offer the 15/1 ML price on the hike, but I'd be happy to dive in at something shorter than that. She doesn't meet a field with a ton of depth, and she has a right to run in with the chalk drawn inside of her.
#4 Amelia Bedelia Reliable type always runs her race, and she has speed and the ability to press, making her doubly dangerous. Doesn't have much to beat here.
#6 Frontier Woman Local debut for this one by way of Arkansas and Oklahoma, and she figures to be rallying late. The question is whether she'll get enough pace tonight.
Race Summary Vaunt looks tough here off a nice run in her dirt debut. She has done little wrong in four starts and figures playable at something like half her ML price.

Charles Town - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 Venetian Drive Forward player was in the mix until late last out on the drop to this level, and she doesn't meet an overwhelming amount of pace this time around. Expecting better tonight.
#6 Ladys First Cross Owns some back races that would be good enough to land her a piece underneath at a price. Not interested in her in the win pool as she makes her 28th start as a maiden.
#1 Wakes Up Happy Dropper has some running lines that would make her tough here, but she has been going the wrong way with almost every start since her debut, and how much do you want her on another drop after showing nothing in the comeback run?
Race Summary Venetian Drive has a chance to work out a great trip right up on the splits, as she only faded late in her comeback run last time out.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 KAMERAN HANOVER Followed move of odds-on winner through :57.2 final half.
#7 EXEMPLAR Sustained first-over rally from post 8, finished a length back in third.
#5 MAJOR MUSCLE Landed minor awards in 5 of 8 starts this year.
Race Summary Kameran Hanover carried over his improved form to this level when last seen before the shutdown. He rallied to finish second, behind the classy 2-to-5 winner and beat two his main rivals tonight. Play 2-5 and 2-7 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 JERAMAYA Takes some catching in bid for 45th victory.
#1 RAVISHING VIRGIN No threat to top one, lures Wrenn, draws inside.
#9 ALEXIS MAY HANOVER Even-paced in return, drops, starts from second tier.
Race Summary Jeramaya chased the 1-to-5 winner through solid fractions and faded. The 10-year-old loves to win and should take some catching. Play 3-1 and 3-9 exactas.

Hawthorne - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 TERROR OF THE NITE Meadowlands invader appears ready to fire off qualifier.
#2 SPECIAL SAUCE Good try from post 8 but 3-43 the last two years the drawback.
#10 NATIVE’S BEST BET Finished 1-2-3 from up close the last three times he stayed flat.
Race Summary Terror Of The Nite, no factor against better at the Meadowlands, should find local rivals and the rail to his liking off a useful qualifier. Play 1-2 and 1-10 exactas.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Galleon Mast Tried Grade 2 company in the Pan American last time and faltered to 8th; usually is very tough vs. Florida-breds and likely will be rolling late in the game.
#5 Muggsamatic Was a good claim for $25K by the Maker barn and followed the purchase with a stakes win and two runner-up efforts; comes out of fast races and will be in the hunt throughout.
#6 Kroy Cruised some to an easy win over upper optional claimers last out and was 2nd on the turf two back; has the speed and class to be a strong challenger.
Race Summary Galleon Mast has the class for this one and will get an ideal pace setup; will be extremely difficult to hold off his bid today.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Bellera Graded stakes winner makes her 1st attempt over grass and has the running style in which he can adjust to any pace; can outgame this group.
#1 Bienville Street Hasn't been with statebreds the last two and often brings a good rally when she;s in restricted races; capable of making up ground at a price here.
#2 Midnight Soiree Was on the board in her last three against open company and is capable of a big effort here; can be close to the pace and could be tough to pass if she gets the lead at some point.
Race Summary Bellera has a big class edge and despite not having run on turf should be able to take whatever they throw at her and can succeed in this spot.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Up in Smoke Is unbeaten in sprints, winning her 1st three starts, and then faltered going long; she's back to a sprint and could be too tough for them to handle.
#5 Boerne Was an easy winner in her last three and is developing into something special; big player.
#6 Vast Ran a non-threatening 4th in an allowance last out and was a stakes winner last year; capable of a solid stretch rally.
Race Summary Up in Smoke didn't like going long and now she's back to a sprint; nobody came close in her short races and a fast pace should help her bring the late heat.
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Paul Leiner

UFC & Horse Picks 6/6

Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:58 am
Hit the 9th race exacta and it paid $36. Got two third places in the other races yesterday. Today I have two big races from Belmont and a UFC pick for tonight.

100* Alex Perez -140 over Jussier Formiga

Belmont Race 6
#8 Social Paranoia $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 8-6-5

Belmont Race 9
#2 Performer $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 2-11-10
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Mike McClure

UFC 250

At UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns, McClure was all over Mackenzie Dern and Jamahal Hill as two of his top picks. The results: both fighters scored first-round stoppages, and anybody who followed McClure's advice was poised for a profitable day.

Top Picks

Amanda Nunes, Herbert Burns and Sean O'Malley

Fight Picks

Amanda Nunes (-600) vs. Felicia Spencer (+450): Nunes
Cody Garbrandt (-145) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+125): Garbrandt
Aljamain Sterling (-115) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-105): Sandhagen
Neil Magny (-145) vs. Anthony Rocco Martin (+125): Martin
Sean O'Malley (-440) vs. Eddie Wineland (+360): O'Malley
Chase Hooper (-150) vs. Alex Caceres (+130): Hooper
Ian Heinisch (-125) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+105): Heinisch
Cody Stamann (-275) vs. Brian Kelleher (+235): Kelleher
Charles Byrd (-170) vs. Maki Pitolo (+150): Byrd
Alex Perez (-140) vs. Jussier Formiga (+120): Perez
Alonzo Menifield (-220) vs. Devin Clark (+190): Clark
Herbert Burns (-240) vs. Evan Dunham (+200): Burns
DraftKings Exposure across 20 lineups:

Amanda Nunes
Herbert Burns
Sean O'Malley
Devin Clark
Alex Perez
Chase Hooper
Anthony Rocco Martin
Cory Sandhagen
Charles Byrd
Gerald Meerschaert
FanDuel Picks

MVP Amanda Nunes - MVP
Sean O'Malley
Herbert Burns
Anthony Rocco Martin
Brian Kelleher
Devin Clark

MVP Amanda Nunes - MVP
Alex Perez
Herbert Burns
Chase Hooper
Anthony Rocco Martin
Devin Clark
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Brandon Wise

A CBS Sports editor specializing in MMA, Wise has been dissecting the sport for five years. He specializes in picking main-card fights for UFC, which has enabled him to be profitable every year! Wise went a perfect 5-0 at UFC 239 and was 4-1 at both UFC 245 and UFC 249. He also nailed Khabib Nurmagomedov's destruction of Conor McGregor in 2018, Stipe Miocic's upset of Daniel Cormier, Max Holloway's downfall in 2019 and Justin Gaethje's TKO victory over Tony Ferguson in May.

Across UFC 247, UFC 248 and UFC 249, Wise went a whopping 11-4 with his main-card picks, returning healthy profits for anyone following them. He also called Gilbert Burns' big upset over Tyron Woodley, who was the -175 favorite, at UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns this past Saturday.

UFC 250

Amanda Nunes (-575) vs. Felicia Spencer (+425): Nunes by decision

In many ways, this fight feels like a trap for Nunes. She's only fought once in the UFC at the weight class and got in a firefight with Cris Cyborg that lasted less than one minute. The biggest question she'll have to answer is stamina, given the championship rounds being contested at a higher weight.

But make no mistake, she is the better fighter in this bout and should be able to cruise if she avoids getting taken to the ground by a submission specialist in Spencer. The only thing stopping Nunes winning this fight handily is Nunes.

Cody Garbrandt (-150) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+125): Assuncao by decision

This is a spot where the UFC is trying to elevate a former champion and get him some shine again. Garbrandt is on a three-fight losing streak after winning the bantamweight belt in 2016, and each loss has come by way of knockout. Should he avoid getting baited into a brawl like he has in his last three bouts and fight smart, this could become an interesting chess match.

But what he faces in Assuncao is a durable competitor who has been on the cusp of title contention for years. He may not possess the power to finish Garbrandt outright, but he has the better all-around game to get scorecards in his favor.

Aljamain Sterling (-125) vs. Cory Sandhagen (+105): Sandhagen by decision

This arguably is one of the best fights and style matchups available to make in the sport. Both guys bring an incredible and slick style in the stand-up that will make it hard to be hit. Sandhagen has modeled his game after former bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz, and uses awkward angles and entry points to make life miserable for his opponents. His large size for the weight class at 5-11 can be a nightmare as well.

Sterling is on his own hot streak and has a case to be considered THE top contender for the championship with his incredible run, but this is as tough a matchup as he could get short of a title shot. Picking this fight to go to a draw seems like a good prop bet as well, but I think Sandhagen finds a way to eke one out.

Neil Magny (-150) vs. Anthony Rocco Martin (+125): Magny by decision

This is another interesting style matchup. Magny is huge for the welterweight division at 6-3 and creates a lot of issues for his opponents with his length. Martin possesses a strong wrestling base, with nine of his 17 career wins coming by submission. If this fight gets to the ground, it's likely to end in a sub for one of the men. Magny should be able to keep this on the feet and grind out another decision.

Sean O'Malley (-440) vs. Eddie Wineland (+340): O'Malley by TKO

Another showcase opportunity for "Sugar" on Saturday night. One of the brightest rising stars in the sport with incredible knockout power, O'Malley is a huge favorite against the 35-year-old Wineland for a reason. O'Malley is undefeated with seven knockouts in his career, while Wineland has gone 3-2 since 2016, with all the wins coming by KO. Expect fireworks, but I foresee O'Malley getting the finish sooner rather than later.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Belmont Park - Race #7 - Post: 4:32pm - Stakes - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 113 Westchester S. (Grade 3)

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 MONONGAHELA (ML=4/1)
#10 WAIT FOR IT (ML=20/1)
#4 PAYNE (ML=8/1)

MONONGAHELA - I'll forgive that last effort on Feb 15th when he was beaten as the public choice. That race was pretty good for the John B. Campbell and this horse's speed figure was solid. This is the only real presser in the race. That 113 fig this horse recorded in his last affair tells me he's a chief player today. Compare today's class (113) with last three speeds (120, 113, 113). All three speed figures are good enough to win. WAIT FOR IT - My handicapping 'sense' tells me to be on the alert for this racer in this contest PAYNE - Carmouche and Brown perform well when they join forces. Hard to top a win pct of 33. I like this horse a lot here. He shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 CODE OF HONOR (ML=6/5), #1 ENDORSED (ML=6/1),

CODE OF HONOR - This probable favorite probably needs at least one race to get back into shape. Pass on him today. The seventh place finish in the last event was not the greatest. ENDORSED - Disappointing speed rating last time around the track at Oaklawn Park at 1 1/16 miles. Don't feel this entrant will improve too much today.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MONONGAHELA - Love the latest bullet move. Should perform well today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 MONONGAHELA is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4,10] Total Cost: $6
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 87

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 CASH MONEY (ML=15/1)
#6 MR. DIPLOMAT (ML=5/2)
#5 SMOKIN ENCOUNTER (ML=3/1)

CASH MONEY - It looks like the speed horses may duel each other into the ground. When the real running starts this gelding should be flying down the lane. This gelding is entered to race right back into a race in less than 10 days; this is a positive sign. This gelding is in good physical condition. Finished first on May 31st. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. MR. DIPLOMAT - I do like the fact this gelding is back in a race so quickly. This gelding is in top form right now. Finished first last time around the track and comes back soon. SMOKIN ENCOUNTER - Just look at his recent speed rating, 90. That one fits in this field. This entrant earns a lot of money per start. I believe he can augment the lifetime total in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 POWER TIMES TWO (ML=7/2), #4 MR BINGLEY (ML=9/2), #3 ROB'S GOT GAME (ML=5/1),

POWER TIMES TWO - Awfully hard to play this pony when he hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness of late. This runner ran a quite unimpressive speed rating last time out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely lose in today's event running that figure. MR BINGLEY - You always think this equine has a shot to be victorious, but he comes up short most of the time. The fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underlay. ROB'S GOT GAME - This racer ran a most unsatisfactory speed figure last race out. He shouldn't improve and will likely lose in today's event running that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 CASH MONEY is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
Pass
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26500 Class Rating: 63

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $9,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 SPEEDY DEVIL 8/1

# 14 I'M A GINGER 3/1

# 2 OBLIVIOUSLY 6/1

SPEEDY DEVIL could be the bet in here especially at a long price. Looks respectable for the conditions of this outing today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races recently. I'M A GINGER - Has been running in the most competitive company of the group recently. OBLIVIOUSLY - Will most likely compete solidly in the pace contest which bodes well with this group.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $42000 Class Rating: 94

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR MD SIRED OR MD BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING SINCE APRIL 6 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 KINGPIN 7/5

# 6 BOPPIN ANDA WEAVIN 8/1

# 2 CANNON'S ROAR 8/1

KINGPIN looks to be a solid contender. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the midpoint of the competition. Has to be given consideration - I like the figs from the last race. Has run admirably when racing a turf sprint race. BOPPIN ANDA WEAVIN - Toledo will most likely be able to get this gelding to break out quickly for this event. The average class figure of 81 makes this entrant tough to beat. CANNON'S ROAR - Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. Looks to have a decent class edge based on the latest company kept.
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park
PURCHASE

06/06/20, SA, Race 7, 3.34 PT
06/06/20,SA,7,1M [Turf] 1:31:03 STAKES. Crystal Water Stakes. Purse $100,000. FOR GOLDEN STATE SERIES ELIGIBLE CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. By subscription of $100 each to accompany the nomination, closed On Thursday May 28,2020 with 12 or by supplementary nomination of $25,000 due at time of entry for non Golden State Series eligible horses or $2,000 for Golden State Series eligible horses, $750 to enter and an additional $750 to start with $100,000 guaranteed of which $60,000 to the winner, $20,000 to second, $12,000 to third, $6,000 to fourthand $2,000 to fifth. Three-Year-Olds 120 lbs. Older 126 lbs. Non-winners of a Sweepstakes at One Mile or Over allowed 2 lbs. Non-winners of Two races other than Maiden, Claiming or Starter at One Mile or over allowed 4 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 8 Lieutenant Dan 4-1 Van Dyke D Miyadi Steven FE 44.00 1.35/$1
099.91 3 Prince Earl 2-1 Rispoli U D'Amato Philip C 38.89 1.24/$1
099.34 7 Ward 'n Jerry 3-1 Prat F Puype Mike J 38.89 1.24/$1
098.70 6 King Abner 5-1 Cedillo A D'Amato Philip L 34.69 1.43/$1
097.41 4 Brandothebartender(b+) 8-1 Espinoza V Dollase Craig W 34.69 1.43/$1
097.30 5 Oliver 10-1 Smith M E O'Neill Doug F. 34.69 1.43/$1
096.68 1 Cono 10-1 Gutierrez M McCarthy Michael W. T 34.69 1.43/$1
095.50 2 Grinning Tiger(b-) 20-1 Figueroa H Saavedra Anthony K. S 33.91 1.07/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 30.30, ROI 1.08/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 3 Prince Earl 2-1 Rispoli U D'Amato Philip SC 38.36 1.43/$1
099.72 7 Ward 'n Jerry 3-1 Prat F Puype Mike J 29.96 1.33/$1
098.87 6 King Abner 5-1 Cedillo A D'Amato Philip L 29.96 1.33/$1
098.51 1 Cono 10-1 Gutierrez M McCarthy Michael W. TW 29.96 1.33/$1
098.48 4 Brandothebartender(b+) 8-1 Espinoza V Dollase Craig 29.96 1.33/$1
097.19 2 Grinning Tiger(b-) 20-1 Figueroa H Saavedra Anthony K. 29.96 1.33/$1
096.29 8 Lieutenant Dan 4-1 Van Dyke D Miyadi Steven FE 29.96 1.33/$1
096.26 5 Oliver 10-1 Smith M E O'Neill Doug F. 29.96 1.33/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.25, ROI 3.47/$1
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs
PURCHASE

06/06/20, CD, Race 9, 5.18 ET
06/06/20,CD,9,5 1/2F [Turf] 1:02:01 ALLOWANCE. Purse $81,000 (includes up to $21,300 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of $24,600 On The Turf Since April 6 Allowed 2 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $35,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at Five and a Half Furlongs.).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 9 Tohui 5-1 Leon S Jurado Luis A. FEL 35.59 1.30/$1
098.93 5 High Crime 7/2 Geroux F Miller Darrin 38.89 1.72/$1
098.18 14 American Mandate 5-1 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. 35.00 1.44/$1
098.14 12 Cardiac Kitten 4-1 Gaffalione T Ward Wesley A. C 35.00 1.44/$1
097.10 3 Ikeisgreat 5-1 Gaffalione T Danner Kelsey 33.33 1.33/$1
096.36 2 My Man Flintstone 8-1 Hernandez. Jr. B J McPeek Kenneth G. 38.89 1.72/$1
096.24 10 Alfie Solomons 4-1 Corrales G Ward Wesley A. J 18.75 1.24/$1
095.82 13 Shared Legacy 5-1 Lanerie C J Sancal Murat 26.67 1.40/$1
094.86 6 Johnny Unleashed 8-1 McKee J Foster Eric N. S 38.89 1.72/$1
093.37 1 News Flash 12-1 Garcia M Maker Michael J. W 38.89 1.72/$1
093.09 8 Williston Way 15-1 Morales E Hardin Billy 35.00 1.44/$1
092.95 4 Ace Destroyer 10-1 Graham J Flint Bernard S. 35.00 1.44/$1
092.59 7 Royal Commission 12-1 Cannon D DiVito James P. 38.89 1.72/$1
089.98 11 More Than A. P. 15-1 Murrill M Pessin Neil L. 28.30 1.16/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 20.69, ROI 0.89/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 9 Tohui 5-1 Leon S Jurado Luis A. FEL 14.29 1.54/$1
098.36 3 Ikeisgreat 5-1 Gaffalione T Danner Kelsey 14.29 1.54/$1
098.31 10 Alfie Solomons 4-1 Corrales G Ward Wesley A. J 33.33 1.07/$1
098.03 5 High Crime 7/2 Geroux F Miller Darrin 33.33 1.07/$1
097.78 13 Shared Legacy 5-1 Lanerie C J Sancal Murat 14.29 1.54/$1
097.44 12 Cardiac Kitten 4-1 Gaffalione T Ward Wesley A. C 31.68 1.14/$1
097.28 14 American Mandate 5-1 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. S 31.68 1.14/$1
095.91 6 Johnny Unleashed 8-1 McKee J Foster Eric N. 33.33 1.07/$1
095.45 4 Ace Destroyer 10-1 Graham J Flint Bernard S. 31.68 1.14/$1
095.32 8 Williston Way 15-1 Morales E Hardin Billy W 31.68 1.14/$1
094.69 1 News Flash 12-1 Garcia M Maker Michael J. 31.68 1.14/$1
094.39 11 More Than A. P. 15-1 Murrill M Pessin Neil L. 14.29 1.54/$1
094.19 7 Royal Commission 12-1 Cannon D DiVito James P. 31.68 1.14/$1
093.10 2 My Man Flintstone 8-1 Hernandez. Jr. B J McPeek Kenneth G. 33.33 1.07/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 25.45, ROI 0.80/$1
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