Free Premium Service Plays For Saturday 7/11/20

Race of the Week: Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland

July 9, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

GRADE 1 $350,000 JENNY WILEY STAKES AT KEENELAND
Saturday, July 11, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Keeneland's 5-day summer stand is heavy on stakes this Saturday, offering 6 big-money events on a 10-race card. Kentucky Derby hopefuls are in the spotlight in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes, while 3-year-old fillies contest the Grade 1 Ashland and elite turf fillies and mares show down in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley. The latter appeals with a fantastic regional mash-up among stars from the east, midwest and west. First post is 1:05 pm ET with the Jenny Wiley slated for 4:47 pm ET as Race 8.

​Field Depth:
Multiple Grade 1 winner RUSHING FALL is the only contender to win at the highest level, but JOLIE OLYMPICA, SECRET MESSAGE, MUCHO UNUSUAL and TOINETTE all are Grade 2 winners. JULIET FOXTROT and LA SIGNARE are Grade 3 winners. There's not a decided class riser in this field; they're all battling among the better runners throughout the division nationally.

Pace:
JULIET FOXTROT and RUSHING FALL are types who can show pace versatility and make the front if it's available, but aren't true speed types. JOLIE OLYMPICA is fast and likely outfoots them early with TOINETTE a possibility to be in the second flight. This does not look like an overwhelming early pace and the race can be won on or near the front.

Our Eyes:
RUSHING FALL has one of the most impressive Keeneland resumes of all-time, eclipsed only by the likes of Wise Dan and Take Charge Lady. She's a 4-time local stakes winner at ages 2,3 and 4. Her 2019 Keeneland victory came in this very Jenny Wiley Stakes, rolling wire-to-wire following a 6-month layoff. She also showed that kind of style winning her 2020 return in the Beaugay last month at Belmont Park. Jockey Javier Castellano has the luxury of putting her just about anywhere in a race as she's 12: 9-2-0 lifetime with the only blip a fourth-place effort here last October in the Grade 1 First Lady over a mile. She had lost her speed in the Diana and First Lady before being put away for the winter. While there's deserved respect for RUSHING FALL and her trainer Chad Brown, 1/ST BET statistics note that he's 'only' 31% with graded stakes turf favorites at Keeneland, going 8-for-26; so there have been plenty of successful bids to dethrone him.

The Californians are represented by JOLIE OLYMPICA, MUCHO UNUSUAL and TOINETTE. All 3 are talented and accomplished, but JOLIE OLYMPICA appears to have the highest ceiling. The Brazlian star has won 5 of 6 races, including 2 of 3 since coming to Richard Mandella's barn at Santa Anita. His reign with South American exports in the 1990s was the stuff of legend, and this filly has a quality about her that's special. How far might she run? That's the question. She was surprised in the 1-mile Grade 2 Buena Vista by Keeper Ofthe Stars, but that runner came back to validate her score next out in the Grade 1 Gamely. Expect Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith to aggressively handle JOLIE OLYMPICA knowing full well RUSHING FALL is the mare to beat and always wanting to keep her in mind. TOINETTE gets the nod over MUCHO UNUSUAL given that the former already has shipped to Keeneland to win an allowance race and returns to the scene a couple of seasons later. We know TOINETTE can handle the trip and course.

Four Mint Julep Stakes alumni re-match, led by 25-1 upsetter SECRET MESSAGE; 21-1 runner-up LA SIGNARE; late-running fifth ALTEA; and beaten favorite/sixth-place finisher JULIET FOXTROT. When handicapping the Mint Julep it appeared JULIET FOXTROT had everything her way and she simply failed to deliver upon it. She's now lost 4 in a row and this field has some quality at the top like she's yet to defeat. SECRET MESSAGE and LA SIGNARE have not run their best in prior Keeneland tries, so there's some question that they'll hold their Mint Julep form on this course. Those two do compete for barns having big summers and are in good hands.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: RUSHING FALL has never missed a superfecta and is 4-for-5 at Keeneland. She's proven in this race and no obvious reason to think she won't show up with a good effort.

​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: ALTEA earned the best BRIS late pace figure in the Mint Julep Stakes among those re-matched and should get a better pace scenario in front of her Saturday -- not to win it, but to exhaust the chasers and allow a late-running filly to get a share. ALTEA will be the 'other' Chad Brown trainee to RUSHING FALL, and that's not a bad thing in these distaff turf stakes when looking at the toteboard..

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $65 exacta JOLIE OLYMPICA over RUSHING FALL; $35 exacta JOLIE OLYMPICA over ALTEA.
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Eddie Olczyk: Keeneland Saturday All-Stakes Pick 4 Ticket

July 9, 2020

Keeneland in July? It’s not ‘normal’…but not much is these days.

I’m looking forward to a phenomenal card showcasing Keeneland’s traditional Spring Meet headline races – the Blue Grass, Ashland, Jenny Wiley, Shakertown, Madison and Appalachian – and you to commend the star power assembled for these races.

Plus, think of it this way – you can bet Keeneland all afternoon and then switch over to Del Mar starting at 5:00PM ET for the evening. As a horseplayer, I’m not sure it gets much better than that.

I’ll be playing all day at Keeneland but my primary focus is on the $500,000 All-Stakes Pick 4, which spans Race 6 – 9. Here are my thoughts and my ticket:

Race 6 // 3:51PM ET // Shakertown Stakes (G2)

The $500,000 All-Stakes Pick 4 starts with a 14-horse field and I’m jumping right into the sequence by singling #7 FAST BOAT (8/1). His last race at Churchill Downs as awesome, he has won going this trip at Keeneland I think he’s sitting on ‘GO’ in a big way. There is plenty of speed in here for him to track and he should get the perfect midpack closing trip. Let’s get him home at a price and focus on hitting big.

Race 7 // 4:24PM ET // Ashland Stakes (G1)

The G1 Ashland for three-year-old fillies isn’t huge on field size – only six are entered – but I think you probably want to use half of them to feel comfortable. #2 VENETIAN HARBOR (6/5) is the one they’ll need to catch, but she has had a year full of stops and starts and she’ll face pressure from both #5 TONALIST’S SHAPE (6/1), who adds blinkers, and #6 SPEECH (2/1), who very gamely chased Gamine two-back at Oaklawn Park. A pace meltdown would set things up for #4 ENVOUTANTE (5/1). She’s getting very good for Kenny McPeek and her last two dirt races were runaways.

Race 8 // 4:57PM ET // Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1)

It looks like #4 RUSHING FALL (6/5) and #6 JOLIE OLIMPICA (5/2) are the two horses most handicappers will use here. I respect them both, and RUSHING FALL will be on my ticket, but I think there are a few other options to consider. #2 JULIET FOXTROT (8/1) loves Keeneland and I think she’s better suited for a slightly off-the-pace trip. She probably needed her last race and should be sharper here. #8 TOINETTE (5/1) has been a well-kept secret in California but this could be her coming out party. She is a win machine (8-for-12 in her career) and should get a trip just in behind the speed.

Race 9 // 5:30PM ET // Blue Grass Stakes (G2)

The storylines are all about #7 SWISS SKYDIVER (3/1). She’s looking to become the first filly in history to win the Blue Grass, but this is no easy task. There’s plenty of speed signed on and I’m looking elsewhere for my top plays. #3 ART COLLECTOR (5/1) is inside-drawn and if he can replicate his last race, I think they’re all running for second because they won’t catch him. He should sit just off the front-runners, SHIVAREE and SWISS SKYDIVER (and potentially some others), before unleashing his kick. If he falters, #5 MAN IN THE CAN (10/1) and #12 ENFORCEABLE (10/1) are longshot closers I want on my ticket. They should get a pace and that makes then very dangerous at this trip.

My Ticket

Race 7: 7
Race 8: 2, 4, 6
Race 9: 2, 4, 8
Race 9: 3, 5, 12
Ticket Cost: $27 for $1
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Keeneland’s Blue Grass & Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 10, 2020 | By Johnny D

Wait a minute. This can’t be right. Keeneland and Del Mar racing in the same afternoon?

Oh, that be right, alright. We’re in the COVID 19 twilight zone where anything’s possible. Experience racing ‘As it was meant to be’ while playing ‘Where the Turf Meets the Surf’ all in the same afternoon. Thought you’d never see it? Me, too. But, this year, everything’s cockeyed during this once-in-a-lifetime journey we’d all rather have missed.

Alas, here we are. And, despite all that’s transpired, racing has endured and, in fact, thrived. It certainly has provided sports fans and gamblers with some worthy diversion. Don’t know about you, but I’ve found this upended 2020 racing season entertaining. It’s been a blast, starting when we had just a few tracks in action--introducing fabulous Fonner Park--through the Arkansas Derby card on the first Saturday in May, right up until this weekend when Keeneland, Del Mar, Belmont and others jam the schedule.

With the Belmont Stakes in the books already, sophomore runners continue a march toward the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in September, followed by the Preakness on the first Saturday in October. Tiz the Law currently owns the belt as the undisputed 3-year-old champ. Honor A. P. may have something to say about that. Or maybe another, less exposed runner will emerge to challenge for the title?

Saturday’s Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes doesn’t appear to include anyone that can immediately threaten Tiz the Law’s domination. But, then again, you never know. Did you ever imagine you’d see Keeneland and Del Mar running on the same Saturday? We rest our case.

Here’s one man’s opinion on Saturday’s Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland and the late Pick 4:

Keeneland—Race 9- Toyota Blue Grass—Mile and One-Eighth—Grade 1--$400,000

1. Shivaree Nicks/Velazquez 8-1
Has 11 starts under his girth—10 of them at Gulfstream Park and one at Gulfstream Park West (formerly Calder). This will be his first race outside of Florida. His most recent claim to fame is a four and one-quarter length defeat by top soph Tiz the Law in the Florida Derby at 80.90-1. He’s been no worse than third in his last 7 races—a solid sign of consistency. Other than a maiden win and a close third last out in a $100k optional claimer, the rest of those races came against stakes company, including the Gr. 3 Swale and Gr. 1 Florida Derby. There are some distance questions with him, but he has speed and always has been an overachiever—his sire stands in Florida for a whopping $4k! Best used in lower rungs of exotics.

2. Finnick the Fierce R. Hernandez/J. Ortiz 12-1
Was solid dusted by Art Collector in a $100k optional claimer at Churchill last out. He’s got two wins, but only once has he crossed the finish first. He was moved up via disqualification in an Oaklawn $80k optional claimer. His shining moment came in the Arkansas Derby when third, four and one-half lengths behind Nadal and a length and one-half behind King Guillermo. Can’t really see him winning, so maybe he could be used in the very bottom of expansive exotics.

3. Art Collector Drury/B.J. Hernandez 5-1
He’s on a roll with three consecutive comfortable wins—all at Churchill and stretching from November through June. He was officially disqualified from purse money for the first of those triumphs so, while his record reads 3 for 7, he actually has 4 wins. He owns the highest last out Beyer Speed Figure of anyone in the field and the only triple digit BSF in the race. Last out he easily defeated Shared Sense, who came back Wednesday night to dominate the Indiana Derby, so his form has substance. His running style should have him in the first flight, so he won’t need to make up a ton of ground. All things considered, he’s a dangerous type that must be considered for the win.

4. Mr. Big News Calhoun/Murrill 10-1
The good news for Mr. Big News is that he has improved Beyer Speed Figures in each race since his first out at Keeneland in October. He’ll need another forward move to contend seriously in here, but he hasn’t gone back yet. His running style is a concern because he has no speed. That hasn’t bothered him in two of his last three—a maiden race at Fair Grounds and the Oaklawn Stakes in Hot Springs, both wins. The latter victory upset the applecart at a whopping 46.80-1. There doesn’t seem to be much speed in this race so it could be more difficult for him to close in time.

5. Man in the Can Moquett/Gaffalione 10-1
This is a real step up the class ladder for this determined Arkansas-bred colt. He’s won 4 of 5 starts, 2 of 3 against fellow Arky-breds and an open maiden at Remington and a $75k optional claimer at Churchill. The latter victory came as favorite at a mile and one-eighth—same as today’s distance. Appreciate this guy’s ‘try,’ even though these should be tougher than what he’s faced in the past. He’s a reach, but has a puncher’s chance at nice odds.

6. Hard Lighting A. Delgado/Bejarano 50-1
This colt steps up the ladder two races removed from a maiden score in the Gulfstream slop. Beyer Speed Figs are headed in the right direction, but another advance is needed in here.

7. Swiss Skydiver McPeek/M. Smith 3-1
This 3-year-old filly has knocked out three consecutive decisive graded stakes victories—Gr. 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, Gr. 3 Oaklawn Park Fantasy and Gr. 2 Santa Anita Oaks. Instead of continuing against her own sex toward a start in the coveted Kentucky Oaks, her connections have decided to match her against this collection of males in the Blue Grass. If successful, she would become the first filly to win this race that originated in 1937. On paper, she appears to fit. She’s got enough speed to be close to what should be a reasonable pace and her winning spirit is unquestioned. She also enjoys a five-pound sex allowance. She must be respected but 3-year-old females facing soph males on dirt is a clear uphill challenge.

8. Basin Asmussen/R. Santana 8-1
This guy’s soph season has been a bit of a disappointment. After winning the Gr. 1 Hopeful in dominating fashion in September, ‘hopes’ were high for this guy. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t made that much of an improvement since then. He was third in the Gr. 2 Rebel and second in the Gr. 1 Arkansas Derby, but was well back in both events. He lost decisively to #4 Mr. Big News in the Oaklawn Stakes two races back. He’s like several in here with a chance to round out exotics, but not a win candidate.

9. Attachment Rate Romans/L. Saez 20-1
He’s been on the board in four of five 2020 races. That’s got to count for something. Off since May when fourth, beaten five lengths by the injure Maxfield, his only triumph came at a mile in the Gulfstream slop. He’d need a real turnaround.

10. Rushie McCarthy/Castellano 5-1
Here’s a colt that’s a bit interesting. He’s improved Beyer Speed Figures with each of five starts, finished third behind Honor A.P. and Authentic in the Gr. 1 Santa Anita Derby, and is saddled by a young, hot conditioner and ridden by a Hall of Famer. He has won two of five and was a distant runner-up to the highly regarded Charlatan. He need only repeat his last and he figures to be around at the finish of this. His post is no bargain, but he’s got speed to contend early. Worth a long look in here.

11. Hunt the Front Zito/Lanerie 30-1
This son of Revolutionary must come from far back. He enters this race off an Oaklawn Park maiden victory followed by a poor first level allowance/optional claiming try. Pass on him.

12. Enforceable M. Casse/Rosario 10-1
Tough post for any runner but trainer Mark Casse has the right pilot in Joel Rosario. This son of Tapit comes from far back and will need lots of breaks not to lose ground off the turn. He has faced graded stakes foes in his last five starts and won the Gr. 3 Lecomte and was second in the Gr. 2 Risen Star, so he’s not a toss from exotics consideration.

13. Tiesto Mott/Prat 15-1
He moves from turf to dirt after all four lifetime starts on the green stuff. As if that wasn’t enough, he’s also drawn the dreaded 13 hole for this Gr. 2 test. Jockey Flavien Prat and trainer Bill Mott are solid connections but, like #12 Enforceable, he’ll need the trip of a lifetime to neutralize this starting post. 13-hole and first-time dirt are enough to chase me away.

Bottom Line: #7 Miss Sky Diver seems a logical play in here and probably will be a single for many in multi-leg exotics. However, she is a filly acting against colts and that’s always a challenge. #3 Art Collector could continue his hot streak. #5 Man in the Can has built his rep against lesser but done it well. Rounding out the remainder of the trifecta will involve a number of runners that are hard-trying types that seem just a cut below the top three.

$.50 Trifecta ($18 Total)
First: #3, #5, #7
Second: #3, #5, #7
Third: #1, #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, #10, #12

$.50 Trifecta ($63 Total)
First: #3, #5, #7
Second: #1, #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, #10, #12
Third: #1, #3, #4, #5, #7, #8, #10, #12

Keeneland Late Pick 4 Analysis

7th Race—Central Bank Ashland—Grade 1—$400,000-- Fillies Three Years Old—One Mile and One Sixteenth

2. Venetian Harbor has two wins and two seconds in four starts. She’s the fastest in the race. Last out she was defeated by Blue Grass contender Swiss Skydiver in the Gr. 3 Fantasy at Oaklawn Park. ‘Harbor set torrid fractions that afternoon and probably won’t need to go nearly as fast early in here. She’s the one to beat.

5. Tonalist’s Shape has won an outstanding six of seven races, including the Gr. 3 Forward Gal and Gr. 2 Davona Dale, both at Gulfstream. She didn’t do well against Swiss Skydiver in the Gr. 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks when wide throughout for her only defeat.

6. Speech probably is the most interesting of the possible upsetters in here. She seems to be developing nicely for trainer Michael McCarthy, has enough speed to be within striking distance of #2 Venetian Harbor and never has been off the board in six tries—one win, four seconds and one third. She has two bullet half-mile works for this off a second in the Santa Anita Oaks, four lengths behind Swiss Skydiver.

8th Race—Coolmore Jenny Wiley—Grade 1--$350,000—For Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward—One Mile and One-Sixteenth on Turf

4. Rushing Fall is the one to beat in here. She’s won nine of 12, four of five on Keeneland turf and is three for four at the distance! She’s got speed, so she’ll be in the race from the start. She’s trained by Chad Brown, who also has #7 Altea in here, and is ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano. Drawbacks? There is other speed in the race, so she’s got to avoid that trap. Other than that, she appears, as always, very tough.

6. Jolie Olimpica should add some early speed to the mix. She has two turf wins at five and one-half furlongs at Santa Anita to her credit this year. She set the pace in the Gr. 2 Chula Vista but was gunned down by talented Keeper of the Stars. Perhaps, Hall of Fame connections--trainer Richard Mandella and jockey Mike Smith--have learned a thing or two about relaxing this 4-year-old Brazilian-bred and raced filly. If so, she could be a threat in here.

8. Toinette always must be considered a legitimate contender. Like Rushing Fall, she’s 5-years-old and is game as ever with eight wins in 12 starts--one for one over Keeneland turf and two for two at the distance. Flavien Prat rides for Hall of Fame conditioner Neil Drysdale.

Race 9-Toyota Blue Grass (See Above)

Race 10—Allowance--$79,000—Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won $10,000 Twice Other Than Maiden, Claiming or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Three Races—One Mile and Three Sixteenths on Turf

1. Summer in Saratoga has a pair of 2020 wins in as many tries and has a win over the Keeneland turf course. Her last score came going a mile on turf at Churchill from the difficult 10 hole out of 10 runners. She’s a bit below the others in the speed figure department, so she’s a reach that’s worth honorable mention.

3. Romantic Pursuit fired a big effort last out and just missed by a head in a Churchill allowance turf race. She also was second in the Gr. 3 Very One at Gulfstream before that. She’s a hard-trying 4-year-old filly—nine of 12 starts in the money--and she has a win and a second at the distance. She must be included in whatever one does in here.

6. Kuora makes her first US start in here for very capable but low-profile trainer Ignacio Correas. She’s three for three in her native Peru against males at the Group 3 level. Now, it’s nearly impossible to tell how good (or bad) those fields might have been, but two of her races had 16-runner fields. Kuora has trained reasonably well for this with a seven-furlong breeze and a bullet four-furlong Keeneland turf blowout July 4. There are no superstars in this race, so give this one a second look on the come.

7. Mighty Scarlett also starts for Ignacio Correas and she has some things to like. While she’s been stuck in this condition for a while, she does have a Keeneland turf course win and two wins at the distance to her credit. Those count for something.

9. Delta’s Kingdom is a reach in here, but she’s a bit interesting off her one-for-one Keeneland turf course record and a fair recent effort—her first out since November. She raced closer than usual to a slow early pace and then faded late. That often is a great prep effort for next out.

$1 Pick 4 ($15)
7th #2
8th #4
9th #3, #5, #7
10th #1, #3, #6, #7, #9

$.50 Pick 4 ($45)
7th #2, #6
8th #4, #6, #8
9th #3, #5, #7
10th #1, #3, #6, #7, #9

Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Wagering Strategies - 7/11/20

July 11, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Saturday, July 11, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: (View Video)

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Today’s Blue Grass Stakes-G2 Analysis: (View Video)

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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Mister McLean; 4-Octopus; 5-Foreign Protocol

Forecast: The main track appeared to favor the outside lanes and the rally-widers yesterday; in other words, a typical Del Mar dirt surface. It wasn’t as blatant a bias and we’ve seen, but it was still prevalent. In today opener, an abbreviated sprint for $20,000 claiming 3-year-olds, Octopus makes his first start since being claimed for $32,000 out of a maiden claiming win over this track and distance last November and returns unprotected, not a healthy sign, but if he’s going to fire a winning shot it’ll probably be in his first race back. The recent workouts aren’t bad – he actually looked okay in his most recent drill July 3 at Santa Anita (see video) – and from where he’s drawn the son of Shackleford should be favorable placed outside the other speed in a good pace-pressing or stalking position and then have every chance through the lane. Mister McLean defeated a modest, restricted (nw-20 $16,000 field at Pleasanton last month and his recent speed figures make him competitive on this circuit. Also in from Northern California is Foreign Protocol, an open $12,500 winner three weeks ago in an effort that charts reasonably well with these. Successful in four of 10 career starts, the Q. Howey-trained gelding should settle in mid-pack and then produce his run when it matters. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but not with a great deal of confidence, and if you find the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Commander: 2-Go Time; 8-Handsome Cat

Forecast: We’re going to toss out the poor dirt race at Los Alamitos and key on the sharp runner-up effort sprinting on turf two runs back by Commander, a French-bred gelding who appears to have found his niche as a grass sprinter. Dropping realistically in class, switching to D. Van Dyke and landing the good rail post position in this abbreviated turf dash, the P. Miller-trained sophomore should settle just behind the leaders and then have his chance to produce a winning late kick. Based on numbers and company lines, he can handle this field with a good racing luck. Go Time is the “other” Miller and adds blinkers while returning to the claiming ranks and switching to A. Cedillo. He’s not as fast on pure numbers as Commander but is lightly-raced and graduated over this trip and surface at Gulfstream Park, so the conditions certainly suit. Handsome Cat represents the most dangerous of the closers and if the speed types do each other in he’ll be heard from in the final furlong. He has numbers that fit and has been facing better, so at 12-1 on the morning line he may be worth tossing in somewhere.
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RACE 3: Post 3:07 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Da Kine; 4-Convex; 5-Trojan Magic

Forecast: Trojan Magic shows the dangerous route-to-sprint angle combined with a realistic class drop in his second-off-a-layoff for the A. Lerner barn (powerful stats with this angle) so we’re expecting the Twirling Candy colt to be highly competitive in this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 extended sprint. The pace projects to be slower than average, so he should be on or near the lead throughout. Convex, away since last October and returning as a first-time gelding in his first start for a tag, could be much better than shown, or not. A $155,000 2-year-old in training purchase but with just two career starts, both unplaced, he’s clearly being culled from the stable but could still act against this group, so we’ll use him. Da Kine is another being tossed away; a $180,000 yearling but with a just one modest third place effort from six starts, the four-year-old son of Will Take Charge is fairly competitive on numbers and may be finally found his friends. He should be running on late, so we’ll include him on a few tickets as a back-up.
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RACE 4: Post 3:37 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Sapori Girl; 3-Lemon Drop Tini; 5-Surface

Forecast: Older $50,000 maiden claiming fillies and mares compete over a mile in a grass grab bag that requires a considerable spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll hope to survive and advance using just three. Lemon Drop Tini, in her second off a layoff following her arrival from Florida, may offer a bit of wagering value at or near her morning line of 6-1. She’s reasonably competitive on speed figures and may be the most dangerous of the closing types in a race that projects to have an average early pace. D. Van Dyke got to know her last time and stays aboard, so we’ll give her a slight edge on top and hope the race shape materializes as we envision. Surface needs patient handling and if she can drop over and get some cover should could run back to her reasonable decent runner-up effort vs. Bay Area straight maidens two runs back. At 5-1 on the morning line she’s worth using. Sapori Girl is an 11-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but she can’t help but get a good trip from her rail post and finishing third in her last pair vs. similar should at least hit the board again today.
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RACE 5: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: C+
Use:2-Hot Rod Charlie; 3-Girther; 4-Raisebeforetheflop

Forecast: Hot Rod Charlie brought $110,000 as a yearling – a very good price for a son of Oxbow – but as a half-brother to Mtole he might have been expected to bring a bit more. At any rate, he makes his debut following a solid series of drills at San Luis Rey Downs and then a half mile gate drill (:48 3/5) six days ago over the local main track, so we suspect he’s fit enough for this five furlong dash. With just five rivals, none of whom look like world beaters, the D. O’Neill-trained seems as good as any. Girther finished fifth in his debut with a less-than-ideal trip from his rail draw and has a right to produce a forward move, especially since the race he exits was a fast, highly-rated affair. However, it may or may not be significant that A. Cedillo, who rode him, jumps off to pilot Hot Rod Charlie. The “other” P. Miller-trained entrant – Raisebefortheflop – shows a bullet gate drill at San Luis Rey last month that indicates ability, so we have to use him as well.
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RACE 6: Post 4:37 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Duplicity; 6-Speedy Justice

Forecast: Speedy Justice ran away and hid in his debut last summer over this course and distance but then disappeared. He finally makes it back to the races for B. Baffert and has done some excellent work in the a.m. to indicate he’s fit and ready, with a five furlongs 59 3/5 drill last week especially catching the eye (see video). Granted, he didn’t beat much in that maiden juvenile dash and is facing several older salty veterans today, but this son of Dominus could be very good. Duplicity handled a representative maiden field sprinting on grass at Churchill Downs last month and earned a solid speed figure. With a forward move in what will be just his third career start, the Into Mischief colt should be able to at least outrun his morning line of 8-1. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics – a case can be made for several of the others – with preference on top to Speedy Justice.
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RACE 7: Post 5:07 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Rogallo; 4-Lil Sydney; 7-Mantaray Island; 8-All I Can Say

Forecast: Here’s an inscrutable affair, a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimers over six and one-half furlongs with knocks on just about everybody. All I Can Say comes from a low percentage outfit but has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and is drawn favorably outside. Perhaps most effective as a late-running sprinter, the son of Old Topper has numbers that fit will need some help up front to have his best chance. Rogallo is stuck on the rail – probably not the place you want to be sprinting on this main track – and is dropping from $25,000 to $16,000 off a claim, hardly a ringing endorsement. However, the Lerner barn has terrific stats with the first-off-the-claim angle and this Curlin gelding has several back speed figures that are better than par for this level, so you have to make him a major player. Mantaray Island perhaps the quickest of the quick in a race that may not have all that much zip in it. Away since March of 2019, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding returns as a first-time gelding in his first in a claimer, so there’s certainly a condition question but the works look okay. Lil Sydney exits a better race and with just seven career starts may have a bit of improvement to offer. He had a nice recent half mile drill over the track (:47 4/5, sixth fast of 80) and while slow on numbers may be perking up.
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RACE 8: Post 5:37 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Kiwi’s Dream; 4-Voodoo Song; 7-Souter; 8-Murad Khan

Forecast: Voodoo Song is exiting series of much better races, but he hasn’t won in almost two years and is, and always has been, a need-the-lead type. The son of English Channel guarantees a faster than par pace, and at one time in his career he would handle a field of this quality by simply running his rivals into the ground. Now, at age six, he no longer the Grade-1 winner he once was, most recently fading to finishing ninth of 10 in the Shoemaker Mile-G1 at Santa Anita in late May. This group, however, gives him a chance to bounce back. Kiwi’s Dream, thoroughly genuine and consistent is another that prefers the front end, but in this case likely will settle into a stalking position from his inside draw. If Voodoo Song clears the field as expected, this Australian-bred gelding should inherit a good stalking spot and if ‘Song starts to fade he’ll be the first one over. With just 13 starts, the 5-year-old gelding still has somewhere to go, and at this stage of his career may be more dependable, so give the V. Trujillo-trained gelding the edge on top. Always worth including a ticket or two in your rolling exotics is course-specialist Murad Khan, a two-time winner over the local lawn at this mile trip (albeit against lesser) last year. The French-bred gelding has been below form in his last pair but could perk up with the change in venue. Souter earned a career top speed figure when rallying with interest to be in a dead-head for third in the American S.-G3 last month and earned career top speed figure in the process. If there’s a pace meltdown, he could take full advantage at a nice price.
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RACE 9: Post 6:07 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Diva in Charge; 5-Buyback; 6-Rather Nosy

Forecast: Rather Nosy really isn’t bred to route, but if she’s ever going to be successful around two turns it’ll be in her first try. With rising recent speed figures in her recent sprints, the daughter of Majesticperfection is primed to take advantage of a field without much pace, and as the projected controlling speed in this starter’s allowance main track miler she should be hard to catch, even over a man track that isn’t always kind to stretch-out plays. We like her on top, for sure, but not as a single. Buyback may be the most dangerous of the closers. Dangerous on any surface, she returns to the main track after finishing a solid runner-up in a similar affair at Santa Anita last month, retains D. Van Dyke, and should be able to settle in the second flight and then have her chance when the pressure is turned on. First or second in six of eight career starts, the daughter of Mucho Macho Man offers a bit of value at 6-1 on the morning line. Diva in Chargeseeks her third straight score with rising speed figures, though she’s coming back a bit quicker (13 days) than is ideal. She could regress following a taxing win at Los Alamitos, but if she doesn’t she’ll be right there.
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RACE 10: Post 6:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Vegas Palm; 5-Nurse Goodbody; 12-Sweet Devil

Forecast: Nurse found her best stride too late when rallying to be second in a similar maiden turf router in late May at Santa Anita. She was an also-eligible scratch last month but has worked steadily right along, so we’re expecting the daughter of Kitten’s Joy to produce enough of a forward move today to earn her diploma. Hot-riding U. Rispoli stays aboard and should have her along in time. If you’d prefer to have a couple of back-ups on your ticket for protection, there are two to consider. Sweet Devil gets the worst of the draw but seems certain to improve with the return to grass. Her runner-up effort two runs back at Santa Anita in February charts well here, and a strong series of recent workouts should have her on edge. At 8-1 on the morning line you have to include her somewhere. Vegas Palm is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from the rail, and though she’s already had eight chances the five-year-old mare by Violence has finished second in her last pair and projects to at least hit the board again today.

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

July 11, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Tonight, the Meadowlands has a star-studded card set to go. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6 and it includes the Reynolds Memorial Trot, the Meadowlands Pace Elimination and the Graduate Series Final. I went price shopping in the first leg which is an Open Pace. The Pick 4 sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Our Major Dan A (8-1)-Aussie invader has been razor sharp and the question is how will the ScD form translate to the Big M. My feeling is the risk reward is jutified even though this this will be a big test.
2-Highalator (10-1)-Will toss last at Phl, comes back to the Big M where he has won 12 of 18. Could be out and winging and be on the engine or in the pocket. Using horses on the inside and will respect the last start at the Big M on 7/6.
4-Jesse Duke N (10-1)-Hasn't missed hitting the board in 4 starts here and has notched 3 wins. Dunn has some options and could be forwardly placed or can come off cover. Looks like a player at a square price.

Race 7

2-Hollywood Story (4-1)-Muscle Hill colt has been perfect in two starts in East Rutherford and has a post edge on talented foes. Will respect chances but hasn't faced a field like this.
4-Maesteraemon (5-1)-Even effort on 6/27 after a couple of sharp qualifiers. Melander pupil has won 4 of 10 starts and has talent but is 0-4 at the Big M.
7-Synergy (3-1)-Comes off an even effort in season debut but is a player if ready to roll. Raced against tough customers last year and Gingras returns tonight.
8-Back Of The Neck (7/2)-Got on the engine in 1st start of the year and was just nipped in a quick mile. Is a use and could be even better here but won't be starting from post 3.

Race 8

1-Major Betts (9/2)-Comes off a sparkling 149.4 performance at TgDn on 6/28. Will use instead of the big guns stuck with post 8 & 9. Capt Midnight and Papi Rob can qualify for next week's Pace without emptying the tank tonight.
3-Tall Dark Stranger (3-1)-Hasn't missed a beat from last year and gets a big post edge on main foes. Gingras can take control early on and may not look back.

Race 9

3-Workin Ona Mystery (4-1)-Can't find much to criticize with this Brown trainee and Tetrick can work his magic with Bettor's Wish, the morning chalk saddled with post 10.
4-Dancin Lou (5-1)-Beaten chalk was used hard from post 6 to get the lead in the opening quarter and couldn't last although did close in 25.4. Lou usually comes ready to play and won 11 of 21 starts in 2019.
5-Hurrikane Emperor (8-1)-Last start was a bit disappointing but beaten favorite hung on for a 3rd place check after being used hard in the 1st half. Has won 7 of 10 at the Big M and will look for a rebound with a big purse on the line.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,2,4/2,4,7,8/1,3/3,4,5
Total Bet=$36
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 Wayne's Footsteps Popular runner has been claimed in three straight and now goes for Handal, who is a huge move up from Ferraro and Cannizzo, just missed against better last time, and might be able to shake loose early; too good for these.
#6 Cobble Hill Stalker looked good breaking his maiden last time in his second start for Atras, and while he steps up and meets winners, he fits nicely on paper, and if the pace gets too heated early, he's the one to fear late; would be no surprise.
#10 Passcode Tricky read is the one to beat if he runs back to his last two against tons better, but the worry is he hasn't been seen since August, so what you get here, on the stiff class drop too, is anyone's guess; taking a wait and see approach.
Race Summary There's a lot to like about the 1, most notably the trainer change to one of the bright young starts on the circuit, and there are questions with the 6 and 10, which makes him that much more appealing, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying him in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, as he looks to be in a great spot off the claim.

Belmont Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#6 Women Not Easy Speedy miss got to the turf last time and improved in a big way, looks like the controlling speed here, and doesn't meet much here; come and catch the pick.
#5 Lucky Latkes The chalk was a closing 2nd on debut for Clement and should move forward off that, though she her lack of early speed is a worry; runs out of room in the lane.
#3 Afleeting Glance Morley charge was a distant 7th on debut against tons better and now takes the MSW drop, so she could wake up in a big way, at a price too; do not ignore.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and the 6 figures to make the front, which would give her a big tactical edge on the rest, so play her in all the slots, and especially to kick off the late Pk5, as she tipped her hand last time, and won't have to improve much, if at all, to beat this crew.

Belmont Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#6 The Sinner Is You ML longshot got good at WO late last year but has some solid turf form too, for a Jeremiah barn getting untracked after a rough NY winter, and there's no one here to fear; upset special.
#5 Big Wonder Underrated sort has posted back-to-back big figure runs when 2nd, including at the level two-back, and while he never wins (1-for-24), he fits with these like a glove here; major player.
#4 Uncle George ML favorite was up on the line on debut for Clement, so he has talent and a world of upside, but also he's no faster than about eight here, and his lack of speed won't help; trying to beat.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 6, and he has the look of a sneaky contender, in a race there for the taking, so give him a look in all the slots, and in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's hardly out of this, and a win would go a long way in really blowing up both sequences.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#8 Absentee Has the pace to track a couple of players who might be just a touch quicker than him in the early going, and he's a big danger here with a potential step forward in the second start off the layoff.
#9 Fortunate Friends Should get a similar trip to the top choice, but he's usually giving away at least a little bit of ground in the final yards of his races, so he may again be vulnerable late.
#7 Romanoff At his best when he's able to find the front, and that's likely the case here on the move out to 7f. He may not have cared for the off going last out, either.
Race Summary Absentee can get the right kind of trip near the top, and he has some finishing ability that the others listed lack. He's playable at something like the 7/2 ML price.

Laurel Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#8 Percentage Gets Lasix for the first time while racing for the new barn, and there isn't a ton in here to worry about. Not ready to give up on him yet.
#10 First Law Debuter runs on the grass after a local turf work, and he seems well meant in an iffy race for the level.
#6 The Cairo Kid Makes the turf debut today, and he owns the best running lines in the bunch from his three dirt races. Probably wins this if he likes the grass, but there are alternatives.
Race Summary Percentage seems to have been working forwardly ahead of this comeback for the new barn, and the price figures to be fair against this group.

Laurel Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#1 Stand My Ground Rare jockey play for me, as Feargal Lynch dominates with 36% winners in Laurel turf races going 9f or longer, and there isn't anything super serious in here to be afraid of. He can be closer early than he was last out, is worth a small shot at a big price.
#8 McElmore Avenue A repeat of his last would probably do the trick, but how much do you really want something like the 7/2 ML price on a deep closer who was 48/1 last out? Believers appear likely to get a fair pace.
#6 Threethehardway One-paced on his best day, he might be able to plug along for an underneath piece at a big price in a race where the front end may not be a particularly hospitable place to be. Passes the speed and gets outkicked by the finishers?
Race Summary Stand My Ground is worth a flyer at a price. Jockey Lynch aces these longer turf trips at Laurel, and his finishing style should play well in a race with three or four potential pace elements.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Meadowlands - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 COACH CAL Yonkers invader holds tactical advantage, boasts recent win.
#8 HEAVENLY SOUND Can get forward position despite post but is 1-35 since 2019.
#2 BIG STRETCH MARK Steady check-getter last year, was in range two back in 1:49.
Race Summary Coach Cal pursued the favorite from the pocket and got up to win through a :56.1 back half. He can make good use of his speed in this spot and is taken to repeat. Play 6-2 and 6-8 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#8 FOOL ME AGAIN Strong brush past the favorite, flattened out, goes well in here.
#1 WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE Sustained first-over bid to finish third in blanket finish.
#5 LA ALWAYS A MARTINI Led early from post 8, ran third, seeks first win of year.
Race Summary Fool Me Again broke single-file alignment near the half-mile marker, made a bold rush to get past the pace-setting favorite in early stretch, but weakened late. Play 8-1 and 8-5 exactas.

Pocono Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#8 PERFECT STICK Right set-up, right price after runner-up finish behind the fave.
#7 LORD CROMWELL Classy 6-year-old looks to bounce back after he broke stride as the favorite.
#2 MAX Close up through torrid third-quarter split, faded at the Meadowlands against talented winner.
Race Summary Perfect Stick takes on the boys from post 8 but she is a good value play off her race last week. She made a middle move to a brief lead, held second behind the odds-on winner and gets plenty of pace to run at today. Play a 2-7-8 exacta box.
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