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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies - 5/31/20

May 31, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Sunday, May 31, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Workout Analysis: View PDF File

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Master Recovery; 3-Fay Dan

Forecast: Fay Dan isn’t much but won’t have to be to graduate in this below par maiden $50,000 claiming miler that drew just five entrants. Away since last fall, the four-year-old Curlin gelding has trained well enough to be ready against this level of competition. We’ll give him a very slight edge on top over Master Recovery, a close third over this track and distance at this level two runs back and then beaten just over three lengths in a tougher maiden $75,000 seller on grass last time out. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 2: Post 1:02 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Blackout: 4-Mystery Messenger

Forecast: Mystery Messenger, back sprinting on grass, has numbers that can win and recent workouts that indicate he’s right on edge. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding was victorious over this course and distance earlier in the year from tougher field and retains “win rider” U. Rispoli. Blackout, claimed back by P. Miller for $32,000 last time out, has a win at this level in early January that charts very well here and F. Prat stays aboard. The French-bred gelding didn’t’ get the best of trips when fourth vs. similar last time out but with a clean start and a ground-saving trip he’ll be formidable. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Mystery Messenger.
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RACE 3: Post 1:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Atina; 2-She Cherie

Forecast: Atina, first off the $16,000 claim by J. Mullins, was a lethargic fifth in a similar spot when last seen in mid-February but following this 3 ½ month layoff the Argentine-bred mare should return to form. From the rail she projects to draft into a comfortable ground-saving, stalking position and then have her chance when it matters. We’ll also include She Cherie, the likely controlling speed in her first try around two-turns (always a good angle). She’s fresh, training well, and in good hands. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post 2:06 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Quick Finish; 9-Morgan S.

Forecast: Quick Finish, in the frame in a pair of state-bred first-level allowance sprints on the main track, moves down to $35,000 restricted (nw-2) grass sprint. He’s won sprinting on turf in the past (at Del Mar), has numbers that are good enough to win, and offers excellent wagering value at or near his morning line of 6-1. We’ll also include Morgan S. in our rolling exotics. The J. Mullins-trained gelding just failed at 2/5 in a mixed breed dash at Los Alamitos, but under these more favorable conditions we’re expecting the veteran gelding to bounce back in a big way. His narrow second place finish over this course and distance two runs back puts him right there.
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RACE 5: Post 2:38 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-My Super Mario; 3-Kingofjesters; 6-Hot Socks; 8-Scary Fast Smile

Forecast: This wide open maiden state-bred $50,000 claimer requires a spread in rolling exotic play; we’ll go four deep and hope to get a decent price home. Kingofjesters is a first-timer with credentials to run well in a soft field. The 4-year-old son of Giacomo is late to the part but lands F. Prat and has shown enough ability in the a.m. to be a major player. Scary Fast Smile has trained reasonably well for his debut and is bred to win early (Smiling Tiger). He’s a fresh face in a field in which the known element doesn’t look particularly intimidating. My Super Mario was a beaten choice in his debut at this level but is wheeled back in the same spot as a first-time gelding in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence. Hot Socks, away since last summer, might be a better type this time around for a clever barn. He earned speed figures as a two-year-old that makes him a fit with these.
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RACE 6: Post 3:10 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Sandal; 6-Sweet and Cheeky; 9-Rakassah

Forecast: Rakassah gets the worst of the draw and just failed at even money, so she may not be one to trust in this abbreviated grass sprint for older maiden fillies and mares. However, this does not appear to be a strong race for the level, so the Irish-bred filly probably deserves top billing in a race that we’ll include two others for protection. Sandal has trained well enough to warrant a least a little bit of a look in her debut, and we’ll also toss in Sweet and Cheeky, a first-timer by Candy Ride who hasn’t done anything special in the a.m. but may like the grass. If you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 7: Post 3:42 PT. Grade: X
Single: Ce Ce

Forecast: Ce Ce is listed at 3/5 on the morning line and after winning a pair of Grade-1 events – the Beholder Mile over this track and the Apple Blossom H.-G1 at Oaklawn Park – the daughter of Elusive Quality appears ready for another winning effort. Recent local workouts indicate she remains on top of her game, so we’ll make her a no-value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 8: Post 4:14 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Seaside Dancer; 5-Miss Flawless; 8-Tonahutu

Forecast: Tonahutu stretches out to her preferred distance, drops into a claimer for the first time and has worked well enough of late to indicate she’s ready to regain her best form. She’s winless in five starts over the local lawn but against this group we’re expecting her to get her confidence back. Seaside Dancer may be the controlling speed trip from her rail draw and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course. Freshened since early February, she’s won off short layoffs in the past and retains regular rider A. Cedillo. Miss Flawless returns to grass, drops into class, picks up F. Prat and should be running on late. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while preferring Tonahutu slightly on top.
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Ce Ce a Single in My Santa Anita Late Pick 4 Ticket for Sunday

May 30, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

The Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes is the spotlight race on the Sunday card at Santa Anita, and it’s the magic key to the late Pick 4.
While 2020 hasn’t been kick to a lot of the world, Ce Ce has never been better. The Michael McCarthy-trained daughter of Elusive Quality comes in after a trip to Oaklawn and a win in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Stakes. She got her first Grade 1 win on March 14 at Santa Anita when she drew off to a convincing score in the Beholder Mile.
Hall of Famer Victor Espinoza has been aboard in all six of her starts, and when you have a good horse, he’s been a pretty good choice as pilot.
Hard Not to Love is the biggest threat, as she’s won five of seven starts. She had a chance to beat Ce Ce in the Beholder and did not. It was Hard Not to Love’s first try around two turns and could make it a little more interesting. She has a Hall of Famer in her own right, as Mike Smith gets the return engagement.
The 1 1-16th-mile Santa Maria has just five entrants, and while Hard Not to Love ran a noble second the last time she faced Ce Ce, and that looks like her spot again.
Ce Ce is a single on this $30 suggested Pick 4 ticket.
The Santa Maria is set for a 6:30 p.m. ET post and is the third leg of the sequence.

Race 5 (5:30 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)
The opener of the Pick 4 is the spread race of the play, with My Super Mario, Kingofjesters, Hot Socks, Scary Fast Smile and Agamemmon on the ticket.
Hot Socks and My Super Mario are probably the best of the horses that have started, while several are making their first career start. It’s likely a good spot for a first timer, and Kingofjesters, Scary Fast Smile and Agamemmom are on the docket for their debut.

Race 6 (6 p.m. ET, maidens)
Rakassah will be the favorite in this maiden race, but Fabiolla and Sandal are a pair to notice as well.
Rakassah has made two starts in the U.S. after three in Great Britain, and her appearances here produced a pair of seconds, each this year. She’s likely get have a significant amount of the win pool aimed at her.
Fabiolla also came from Great Britain but hasn’t fired in her two Santa Anita attempts. She showed signs of life in her second start as she closed mildly. She could be braced to make a strong late run in this spot, and continued improved would put her right in the mix.
Sandal has trained well for her debut and would not be a surprise at first asking.

Race 8 (7 p.m., ET, claiming)
Four fillies and mares are the hopes for a payoff in the eighth, including Seaside Dancer, Miss Flawless, Sugary and Tonahutu.
Seaside Dancer takes a slight step up in class after a narrow sprint loss last time and can be a serious player as she stretches out to the grassy mile.
Miss Flawless faltered last time in a race that came off the two and was second at this level two races back. Sugary threw a dud last time after winning two straight and can get back to good form here. Tonahutu drops out of a stakes race and had been racing against a much higher level. She could wake up in this spot.
Here’s the suggested late Pick 4 at Santa Anita Sunday:
5) #1 My Super Mario, #3 Kingofjesters, #6 Hot Socks, #8 Scary Fast Smile, #9 Agamemmon.
6) #3 Fabiolla, #5 Sandal, #9 Rakassah.
7) #2 Ce Ce.
8) #1 Seaside Dancer, #5 Miss Flawless, #7 Sugary, #8 Tonahutu.
50-cent Pick 4: 1-3-6-8-9 with 3-5-9 with 2 with 1-5-7-8 ($30).
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#9 Storm Tracker ML longshot takes the MSW drop after a distant 7th on debut, but that was a very fast race for the level, and the figure is actually the highest of any last-out ones in this race there for the taking, for a barn that won at Tampa Friday; bombs away.
#8 Thenextbestthing Fellow MSW dropper hasn't been out since October but Roussel is 2-for-9 off that move, and this is a trainer who has brought very live stock here from FG, so you have to think this one is ready, and his turf sprint form is by far the best here; scary.
#7 Storm the Bridge Pace player has been speeding early and tiring late, though his one turf run was a decent 7th from a wide outside draw, and he drew a nice attack post outside some of the other speed, and being close on this turf course is never a bad thing; in the mix.
Race Summary You can't pay attention to the ML here, as it will lead you astray, though while you won't see the 30-1 on the 9, you should get 12 to 15, and that's plenty fair enough to give him a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since a win would blow things up right off the bat, even though this is a runner that fits very nicely if you're looking at the figures, especially with a modest group like this.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#4 Maquiavelo Stalker ran on the slop last time and was a solid 2nd, but the turf run two-back, when 3rd with a very solid figure, was strong, and he should trip out off a ton of speed; look out.
#10 Tapizar King Speedster was 2nd on the dirt debut, beaten just a nose, but note he blew a 4-length late lead, so at false odds, trying turf, and meeting other speed, he's no lock; second-best.
#6 Makinalegacy Lifetime maiden and longshot will get overlooked but the turf run three-back was as good as anyone else here, and he'll be rolling late into all the speed; may spice up your exotics.
Race Summary You should get fair value on the 4, as not only with the 10 be bet hard but there are others, like the comebacking (and unmentioned) #8 who will take money too, so play him in all the slots, and especially to end the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he looks primed for a biggie on the return to the turf, and he won't have to improve much off the run two-back to win this.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#10 Midnight Gem Intriguing sort has been on the dirt in her last two and she now makes her first on the turf since the claim for a potent D'Angelo barn, and she had OK turf form with DePaulo, so she could really wake up for her new trainer; upset special.
#1 Babybel Longshot really woke up last time, when a solid 3rd with a good figure, and this post will help her too, so if she can work out a trip, in a race where no one is all that inspiring, there's no reason she can't make a dent; exotics price appeal.
#12 Miss Macho Man Deserving ML favorite looked good winning last time and a repeat probably wins this too, but she has zero margin for error, and drew terribly, so sure, she can win, but at underlaid odds in a big field, let's make her prove it; siding against on top.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 10, and with a 44% trainer now trying the turf, you're allowed to think she's going to better her prior grass form, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since she's going to be in the 8-1 range, and that might play a lot longer in the sequence, since several here will be used.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 Loupacate Returns off the October 2018 layoff, so there are some questions here, but she won two of her three career starts before coming to the U.S., and she seems to be working forwardly with a couple of bullets under her belt.
#8 Kiana's Love Has a right to be tough with this group while getting back on the grass where she ran a couple of really big ones in California early in her career.
#10 Hell's a Poppin Speed draws well while outside, and though she'll have to answer the turf question, she should get a decent run while prompting the splits from this high draw.
Race Summary Loupacate will need to fire fresh to have any chance here, but the worktab suggests she might be ready to roll in a spot that isn't all that deep.

Mountaineer - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Fancy Fierce Was in really good form throughout the 2019 campaign, and though she has a layoff to overcome today, she's dangerous if she comes back with form anything like what she was producing last year.
#1 Mila's Dream Golden Gate invader is bred up and down to handle the turf, and this is certain to be a softer spot than she saw last out in Northern California.
#7 Able to Smile Turf debut poses a question, but the 2019 form on the main track at least makes her seem competitive here. Wouldn't want anything shorter than the 3/1 ML offering.
Race Summary Fancy Fierce has a right to be tough if she comes back running. The 2019 races she was able to finish were all solid, and there only appear to be a few serious threats to worry about in here.

Mountaineer - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 The Tabulator If you draw a line through all the stakes tries, his form becomes pretty tough to get around in this group. He'll have a little bit of company, but he just drilled a way better group last out at GP.
#8 More Than Good Might be the right price player to try to get into the mix, as he owns some pretty decent back sprints that might allow him to crash the party late for a piece.
#2 Glenwood Tactical type should get a good run, and he held his form pretty well through the late part of his 2019/early-2020 campaign. The one worry is that his only local start was one of the worst races on his page.
Race Summary The Tabulator romped against a deeper group at GP in that last start, and his speed puts him right in the hunt throughout. The price will probably get short, but he seems to be a slight cut above these.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 Blackout Connections re-claimed him after losing him via claim in January; won't get the lead in this group, which will probably help him as he's shown ability to rallied.
#1 Raul Rosas Had back to back wins at Santa Anita on grass and in an 870 at Los Alamitos; interesting horse, interesting form.
#4 Mystery Messenger Won at Santa Anita three races back and has a good chance to make an impact late in the game.
Race Summary Blackout is back to the Miller barn and should be able to stay close enough early and then rally in the stretch; well placed here.

Santa Anita - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Fabiolla Was too late in her bid last time but showed improvement and can get back to good form in her 3rd U.S. start; late run is expected here.
#9 Rakassah Finished 2nd in both U.S. starts and just lacked the flash in the closing yards; needs to sustain her run.
#5 Sandal Has trained well for her 1st one and likely will be a factor from the start.
Race Summary Fabiolla should get a good pace in front of her and can close on her quick rivals; 3rd start here should be a good one.

Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes
#8 Tonahutu Has kept stronger company than this and has had occasions in which she closed strongly; the pace should be right for that kind of move.
# Seaside Dancer Stretches out from a good effort and can be a strong factor from the outset.
#5 Miss Flawless Had two solid mile starts in two of her last three and comes off a race that came off the turf; can take dead aim at these.
Race Summary Tonahutu drops in class and should get a rapid pace to chase; one to hold off.
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