Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 6/11/20

Mike McClure

PGA

The model called Justin Thomas (15-2) winning the CJ Cup, Rory McIlroy (11-2) taking down the WGC-HSBC Champions and Viktor Hovland (11-1) earning his first career PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open.

Bets I've placed as of 9:30 PM EST 6/8

Outright Winner

Jon Rahm +1200
Justin Thomas +1600
Xander Schauffele +2800
Collin Morikawa +4500
Scottie Scheffler +4500

Top 5 Finish

Xander Schauffele +650
Collin Morikawa +900

H2H Matchups

John Rahm +100 vs. Rory McIlroy
Brooks Koepka -110 vs. Dustin Johnson
Justin Rose -105 vs. Jordan Spieth
Justin Thomas -138 vs. Bryson DeChambeau

3-Ball Matchups

Rory McIlroy - Jon Rahm - Brooks Koepka: Rahm +160

Justin Thomas - Rickie Fowler - Jordan Spieth: Thomas +125

MISS THE CUT

Jordan Spieth +175

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Jon Rahm (12-1)
2. Rory McIlroy (15-2)
3. Justin Thomas (16-1)
4. Brooks Koepka (28-1)
5. Webb Simpson (22-1)
6. Xander Schauffele (28-1)
7. Bryson DeChambeau (22-1)
8. Patrick Reed (28-1)
9. Dustin Johnson (28-1)
10. Scottie Scheffler (45-1)

Vernon croy

7 * webb simpson ( -140) over brooks koepka .
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 Tri Saint Lorenzo MSW dropper has some solid races showing against better and now takes the big plunge, can settle off what looks to be enough speed, and will be a square price too; upset special.
#8 Eagles Palace ML favorite was twice 4th for a tag on turf and was in a pair of solid MSWs last summer on dirt, so he could wake up here, though this 9-5 ML is no bargain; plenty scary, but no lock.
#9 Warfront Fighter MSW dropper has what the top pair don't, and that's upside, as he's run just twice, though neither were any great shakes, so he'll need to wake up to factor; mixed signals in this corner.
Race Summary That 10-1 ML on the pick seems way too juicy when you look at his last and the fact he's been facing only MSW runners, but even 6-1 or so seems fair, since he looks s good as anyone on paper and has every right to move forward on the drop, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since just maybe he does fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would go a long way in adding plenty of value to the sequence right off the bat.

Belmont Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 Ownitifyouwantit Price player ran hard on the lead when last seen at Aqu in Feb. and just-missed, and while this is a solid crew, there's no one here to hound him early; come and catch the pick.
#7 Cousin Andrew Stiff ML favorite will be bet hard for Brown and figures off his two turns, but neither were any great shakes, so sure, he can win, but his margin is a slim one; underlaid favorite.
#8 Creed Dangerous runner was a solid 2nd at Tampa on debut for Shug, who never cranks them, and now he stretches out, and that 650k price tag says they expect a lot; come blow up.
Race Summary The risk-reward is there on the 2, especially since you know Carmouche will have him on the lead, and while he's not as sexy as some of the others, that last run was better than anything they've done, so play him in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4, since there's a good chance he falls through the wagering cracks, which means a win might play a lot longer than it should, especially in both sequences.

Belmont Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 No Word Lightly raced Pletcher runner was a solid 3rd off the break at GP, which gives him a big leg up on a lot of these, are several of the main contenders are coming off extended layofs, while this dude just shook the rust off last time; look out.
#4 Value Engineering The chalk for Brown is one of the layoff runners, as he hasn't been seen since a head loss here in Sept., and while this barn excels off the l180+-day break (28%), spotting the pick recency won't make it easy, at false odds too; second-best.
#7 Mr. Alec Fellow long layoff sort hasn't been out since his own neck defeat in Nov., so even though Clement is firing and is 20% off this break, he too could need this, and is another who will be bet a bit too much to find out; tabbing for down the road.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 2, even though he doesn't have any questions like his two big rivals, and that means there will be enough risk-reward to see if he can get to the two favorite's level, so play him in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win will add plenty of value to both sequences, and if he's going to be the 4 and 7, today might be the best time to do it.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #2
Picks Notes
#6 Makin Us Look Good Price will get shorter tonight, but that last run was a big improvement, and something similar probably gets the job done with these.
#3 Peaceful Child Added ground might work in her favor after a decent finishing effort in the debut run, and any step forward would make her a threat with this group.
#5 How Is She Needs much better than the comeback race if she's going to land this, and she doesn't appear to have quite as much upside as a couple others in here.
Race Summary Makin Us Look Good might go from 43/1 last out to the favorite today, but she catches a group in which a repeat of that last try would be good enough to score, making her the one to beat.

Charles Town - Race #6
Picks Notes
#8 Fanniebellefleming Steps up and gets protected off the claim, which is always a good sign, and she can get a really nice trip near the top with these. Worth a look.
#2 Silk Stocking Tactical type will get a trip similar to the top choice, and her form has been super reliable this year. She's going to be tough with these.
#1 Banana Anna Cruised with an allowance bunch last time out, and though something similar would hit pretty hard in this spot, I don't really trust her to fully run back to that effort which looked more like an exception than a rule.
Race Summary Fanniebellefleming steps into starter company while protected, and that's still a confident move. She needs her best stuff, but the barn has been off to a good start since re-opening.

Charles Town - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Ocean Lily Probably needs a small misfire from some of her main competitors, but she's a pretty reliable type who isn't all that far off what it might take to win this. Interesting
#4 Win Then Grin Tactical type makes her local debut with a string of Laurel races that look very competitive with these. Not out of the question, but the new footing is at least a little bit of a concern.
#9 Azzurra Forward player will have to work out a trip from a wide draw in this type of race where ground loss could play a key part in her chances if she's unable to get near the rail early.
Race Summary Ocean Lily might get a little bit overlooked in this spot with Win Then Grin and Azzurra likely to take some cash, and while she's not reliably as fast as those two, Win Then Grin has the new surface to handle and Azzurra draws wide with a race configuration that could negatively impact her.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 LEGAL BETTOR Was going well before the shutdown, re-united with old connection.
#1 LEADER TONIGHT Consistent, versatile, moves outside in, beat top one.
#7 GOLDINTHEBADLANDS Finished 1-2-3 in his last four starts at shorter prices.
Race Summary Legal Bettor rallied into soft middle fractions two back, won off the claim, then was re-claimed. He draws favorably and joins the entire field off the layoff. Play 2-1 and 2-7 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#10 ONGOING ROYALTY Hope the barn’s success remains ongoing with this firster.
#3 SIXTEEN Has loyal following, stayed flat in winning qualifier.
#6 REMEMBER TITANS Steady check-getter at 2, returns on winning tune-up.
Race Summary Ongoing Royalty, a son of Hambletonian winner Royalty For Life, draws difficult post assignment for his debut, but the barn’s horses have come back running, some at good odds. Play a 3-6-10 exacta box.

Scioto Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#2 ROOTS N WINGS Flew home for third, draws better post, value remains.
#1 FORTIFY Held his own in fall sire stakes, romped in qualifier, one to beat.
#9 JOHNNY ROCKETTE Failed at odds on in seasonal debut, gets second-time Lasix.
Race Summary Roots N Wings closed with a rush to finish third at 54-1 in faster division of split race. He’s worth a price stab off that comeback effort. Play a 1-2-9 exacta box.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Thistledown - Race #4
Picks Notes
#5 Gentle Kiss Longer trips haven't worked out lately after she won three straight not that long ago; gets a rapid pace to chase and can finish well on the turnback in distance.
#6 Meet Me Half Way Has rallied against good company and won an allowance going long two races back; needs to get going earlier but like the top pick should benefit from the pace.
#1 Flat Out Super Takes a step up in class after two convincing wins; has speed and will get a good run inside.
Race Summary Gentle Kiss didn't fire going long in her last two and can make a big run at this leaders in this six-furlong race; capable of running past them late in the game.

Thistledown - Race #7
Picks Notes
#5 Altissimo Was 2nd in the G3 DeFrancis Dash and had a bad trip in his latest; also won a 100-grander at Delaware and he clearly doesn't need Ohio-bred company. This 17-time winner has nearly $800,000 in earnings.
#1 Mo Dont No Ended 2019 with a stakes win at Mahoning Valley and likely will be a big player from the start of this one; has won 19 of 40 lifetime starts.
#6 Woodland Walk Is 8 of 18 at Thistle and will show speed from the outside. Dangerous if he gets clear early.
Race Summary Altissimo has a ton of class and can adjust to any pace; had excuses for his last one and can recover in his 1st of the year.

Thistledown - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Wolf Eyes Has had plenty of chances to get her 2nd career win but has shown signs up improvement in her last two; has had a mild rally and pick up the leader late.
#4 Chit Chatting Drops out of allowance races and was a maiden winner over this strip last year; takes a sharp class drop.
#6 Miss Irish Boss Drops out of stronger races and should be able to respond to this major step down the class ladder.
Race Summary Wolf Eyes is one of the few in here that are heading in the right direction in their career and will likely make a late run.
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