Free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Churchill Downs, Belmont Park and other horse tracks.
Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Belmont Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 First Dawn Stalker might be just 1-for-17 lifetime but you can make a case she is much the best here on paper, as this is a weak bunch and her figures are clearly tops, plus there looks to be a very hot pace shaping up that she'll be sitting off of; love her chances here.
#6 Smiles From Sadie ML favorite is another who can settle and will like the pace, and her best gives her a big chance here, but her last was dismal, with no real excuse save a good track, and there should be some moisture today as well, which may not help; underlaid contender.
#8 Our Ticket Longshot has no speed and will be lagging way back, though that's not a bad thing here, and the blinkers-on will give her a bit more focus, plus she her lone win was an off-track romp, so Mother Nature could be working for her; could spice up your exotics.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 2, and at 1-for-17 her reputation supersedes her a bit, but she simply looks like a better horse than a very weak bunch, especially since some of the hot-shot recent MCL winners look destined to duel each other into submission, so play her aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying her to kick off the early Pk5, since she's getting all the best of it here.
Belmont Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#9 Frenchie Frou Frou ML longshot debuts for a Sacco barn that is just 1-for-18 with firsters but there are a slew of works showing here, she meets a very weak field, solid local jock Alvarado adds to the appeal, and the barn is a salty 5-for-10 on the year; upset special.
#14 A d'Oro ML favorite is best of these and still has upside off just three starts, but she drew terribly, will be overbet, and has no margin for error off her last two, so sure, she's the most likely winner here, but you're allowed to look around; scary, but no lock.
#2 High School Crush Logical sort goes off the claim for Sciacca (1-for-9), which used to be a potent move a few years back, and this gal has solid form too, but Weaver is rolling this year yet couldn't get her over the hump, and this post isn't ideal either; mixed signals.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 9, as you don't want to see her approach that big 15-1 ML, but if she's live in the 8 or 9-1 range then you can surmise she can run a bit, and the human connections sure don't hurt, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the late Pk5 as well, as this is a real scramble, and the no great shakes, and a win by 'Frou would go a long way in blowing up the sequence right off the bat.
Belmont Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Mystic Guide Godolphin homebred has a pair of multiple GI winners as her parents, so he's cut out to be a star, and that second start in a FG MSW romp was sure a beauty, and while he does cut back to one-turn for this, the gut says that win was only the tip of the iceberg; a star is born.
#8 Country Grammar The less fancied of the two from Brown was a decent 5th in the GII FOY at GP last time after a rough start, and the MSW win two-back at Aqu was heady stuff, and while he too cuts back to one-turn, this outside attack post should be perfect for his stalking style; second-best.
#5 Basquiat Brown's ML favorite looked good winning on debut chasing a hot pace going 7Fs at GP, but the waters are a lot deeper here, and he's actually slowest of the contenders here on figures, so while he's a big talent, he's also got his work cut out for him today; making him prove.
Race Summary If the 6 wins and pays $8 you may look back at it in amazement in a few months, as he could be on to much bigger and better things, if his pedigree and that last win was any indication, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by singling him in the late Pk5/Pk4, since he's only just scratching the surface at what he can do, and he seems poised to really flex his muscles on a bigger stage today.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Charles Town - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 Suave Juan Comeback run with better didn't produce much, but he had run a few races earlier this year that might be good enough to get him in the picture late at a price.
#1 Indian Wildfire He'll need to get a move on earlier tonight than he did in the debut when falling well short at 6/5, but he drops in class and should find this group more to his liking. Still, I wouldn't want to bite on something like that 7/5 ML offering.
#4 Barn Yard Brat Decent, if non-threatening, third when trying this level two starts back, so the drop back in with this kind gives him some hope to wake up off the fading run when last seen.
Race Summary Suave Juan can be forgiven for that comeback run, and perhaps the move to this sharper trip might allow him to spy the splits and try to outkick these late.
Charles Town - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Relentless Strike Comeback run was solid, and he has been competitive with some decent groups over the local footing while winning nine times here.
#5 Zitarrosa Looks like the clear one to beat off the solid allowance tries at Penn, and though the local footing is a question mark, he's probably the right one if he transfers his Penn form.
#2 Liquid Hero Might offer a fair price, and despite his inconsistent form, he shows up with some pretty big races every now and again that would land a piece with these.
Race Summary Relentless Strike might get a bit overlooked despite owning serious local races and a comeback win against softer. His best game keeps him in the mix with these.
Charles Town - Race #7
Picks Notes
#5 She Gives Me Fits Never a huge fan of first-out maiden winners stepping up, but she showed solid pace in the debut run and should be able to get a fairly significant jump on the likely chalk at this short trip.
#3 Hendaya No doubt her best stuff would do, but she has never tried the local footing and might be a bit outrun in the early going on the cutback.
#2 Call Me Jelly Roll Doesn't always show up, but she has some versatility and owns a couple of races in her most recent running lines that could make a dent here.
Race Summary She Gives Me Fits was an easy debut winner, and she scored that day from right up on the splits. Another forward trip should make her tough in a spot where Hendaya, her main danger, will be coming from off the pace.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Scioto Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#10 FRIDAY NIGHT BLUES Can turn tables on similar foes with livelier pace.
#8 ROCK SMART Controlled pace, finished in :27.2, will need passing gear.
#1 CAN BE PERFECT First or second in 5 of 8 as 2yo, can stalk and pounce from rail.
Race Summary Friday Night Blues was slowed by the pace last week and could surprise in a speed-laden field tonight despite starting from the second tier again. Play a 1-4-8-10 trifecta box.
Scioto Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 INTOVIEW Rail bid on final turn to avoid wide trip, willing finish for third.
#6 UPFRONT SUPERSONIC Could be forward factor despite 2-59 mark since 2019.
#4 KEENE SANTANNA Poised off duel but lacked kick when asked in second start back.
Race Summary Intoview, far back when the pace slowed in the second quarter, launched a sustained inside run on the final turn and finished well. She has plenty of backclass to summon and draws the rail with Brett Miller. Play 1-4 and 1-6 exactas.
Scioto Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#10 MIGRATE BLUE CHIP Came back running, recent race produced sharp winner.
#6 SPORTS SINNER Held his ground in 1:52 against better, seeks 44th victory.
#7 I’VE GOTAGIRL CRUSH Won marathon out of town when last seen.
Race Summary Migrate Blue Chip makes his third start in 11 days and starts from the second tier. But he won off the layoff and just missed in the follow-up race that produced a sharp winner on Tuesday’s card. Play a 6-7-10 exacta box.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Thistledown - Race #4
Picks Notes
#8 Willoughby Gap Ran an even 4th in a stakes race at Tampa to end 2019 and makes her 1st of the year; gets top rider in Corrales and should be able to handle these.
#5 Bellamy Brooke Was a clear winner in her only start and has a some good works for her 1st since July.
#4 Never Forget Her Was a 12-length winner in her only start, was claimed by Skerrett barn and is in a good spot for her second start.
Race Summary Willoughby Gap whipped maidens at Presque Isle and ran evenly when she stepped up to stakes foes; could rock this N2L spot.
Thistledown - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Highland Park Hero Was in too tough this season at Tampa but was very competitive here and at Presque Isle last year; can get to the winner's circle in her return to this track.
#5 Frontliner Was an even 4th in his most recent outing and showed speed over this strip last year; can be in the mix from the outset.
#6 Lovely Heir Seven-time winner has been very competitive each start and is 5 of 7 over the strip; can battle from start to finish.
Race Summary Highland Park Hero can get a good trip in this one and is capable of getting back on the winning side of things.
Thistledown - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Leona's Reward Throttled Ohio-breds in three of her last four and looks for her 20th career win; can be in close attendance of the past and should have plenty left for when it counts.
#4 Buckeye Bullet Won this race two years ago, and that was his last start; comes off that long layoff with a series of good works.
#6 True Cinder Is a stakes winners over this track, and like the top pick is a mare worthy of taking on male counterparts; won both of her starts this year and can press.
Race Summary Leona's Reward can be in the mix of this one and can turn back from longer distances for a big win.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE
Bar
Belterra Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,700 Class Rating: 70
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#2 SMART ARCH (ML=5/2)
SMART ARCH - Ran last out against much better horses at Fair Grounds. The move to a lower class level should suit him well. This gelding is at the top in earnings per race. Take a good look at this horse in the saddling enclosure.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CASS CITY (ML=7/2), #3 HIGLEY O'PRADO (ML=5/1), #6 MAGIC JACK (ML=6/1),
CASS CITY - If he goes off anywhere near the morning line odds of 7/2, I'll have to pass. HIGLEY O'PRADO - Not normally the kind of equine one plays off of any type of long breather. This pony hasn't been near the winner at the finish of late. MAGIC JACK - I'm predicting a lackluster go out of him this time around.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - SMART ARCH - Betting the horse with the best last race speed figure is a good angle. None higher than this gelding's last one.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 SMART ARCH to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $53000 Class Rating: 72
INNER TURF FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 2 SNICKET 7/2
# 13 JEWEL OF ARABIA 1/1
# 9 DANCING KIKI 8/1
SNICKET looks very strong to best this field. Her chances to win are much better today facing this easier group. Seems to have a solid class edge based on the recent company kept. With a reliable rider who has won at a solid 22 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top selections. JEWEL OF ARABIA - She should definitely be given a chance given the formidable speed figs. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Rosario will probably have this filly in excellent position to win the contest. DANCING KIKI - Should be considered - I like the numbers from the last affair. Shows signs of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 62 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the most respectable in this group.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 70
FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 5 ANNA LEE ENCORE 9/5
# 7 MISS YOU MOM 6/1
# 1 GALWALKSINTOABAR 2/1
ANNA LEE ENCORE is tough to overlook as the bet in here. Likely to see this horse to be right there on the wire versus these racers. Looks respectable for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in dirt route races lately. Recently Hernandez has been hot which may give the edge to this filly. MISS YOU MOM - The class rating of today's affair is much lower than her last race. Is worth looking at and may be a wager - strong speed figures (69 average) at today's distance and surface recently. GALWALKSINTOABAR - Has respectable early speed and should fare soundly versus this group. Must be given a chance given the class of races run recently.
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs
PURCHASE
06/04/20, CD, Race 7, 4.14 ET
06/04/20,CD,7,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $81,000 (includes up to $30,000 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of $24,600 At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since April 4 Allowed 2 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $35,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One and One Sixteenth mile.).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 3 Botswana Taps 6-1 Saez G Bauer Philip A. TFEL 35.59 1.30/$1
097.89 10 Sea of Hope 7/2 Lanerie C J Colebrook Ben 38.89 1.72/$1
097.70 15 Adhhar(b+) 4-1 Graham J Amoss Thomas M. C 28.30 1.16/$1
096.56 12 Onarock 5-1 Sanjur S Proctor Thomas F. 35.00 1.44/$1
096.43 2 Scabbard 5-1 Geroux F Kenneally Eddie S 22.99 0.90/$1
096.12 9 Mantra 5-1 Talamo J Vaccarezza Carlo 38.89 1.72/$1
094.54 8 Labeq 8-1 Gaffalione T Maker Michael J. 35.00 1.44/$1
093.89 1 Counter Offer 5-1 Leparoux J R Wilkes Ian R. 22.99 0.90/$1
093.47 13 Bantu 15-1 Bejarano R Morrison Mike J. 28.30 1.16/$1
093.25 5 Moon Over Miami 6-1 Garcia M Mott William I. J 33.33 1.33/$1
093.19 6 Dack Janiel's 10-1 Cannon D Sisterson Jack W 28.30 1.16/$1
092.45 7 Lake Nakuru 15-1 Bejarano R Oliver Victoria H. 28.30 1.16/$1
090.27 14 El Ahijado 15-1 Morales E Guerrero Sal 28.30 1.16/$1
088.99 11 Discovered(b+) 20-1 Mena M Sanner Daniel E. 18.75 1.24/$1
087.52 4 Nepal Up 30-1 Serpa A Lobo Paulo H. 26.67 1.27/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 20.69, ROI 0.89/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 15 Adhhar(b+) 4-1 Graham J Amoss Thomas M. TC 31.40 1.11/$1
098.32 10 Sea of Hope 7/2 Lanerie C J Colebrook Ben W 32.62 1.07/$1
097.22 2 Scabbard 5-1 Geroux F Kenneally Eddie E 24.81 0.81/$1
096.71 3 Botswana Taps 6-1 Saez G Bauer Philip A. FL 40.00 1.05/$1
096.25 9 Mantra 5-1 Talamo J Vaccarezza Carlo 32.62 1.07/$1
095.12 5 Moon Over Miami 6-1 Garcia M Mott William I. J 33.33 1.07/$1
095.05 12 Onarock 5-1 Sanjur S Proctor Thomas F. S 31.68 1.14/$1
094.80 1 Counter Offer 5-1 Leparoux J R Wilkes Ian R. 30.65 1.08/$1
094.25 8 Labeq 8-1 Gaffalione T Maker Michael J. 31.68 1.14/$1
093.34 7 Lake Nakuru 15-1 Bejarano R Oliver Victoria H. 24.81 0.81/$1
093.15 6 Dack Janiel's 10-1 Cannon D Sisterson Jack 24.81 0.81/$1
091.80 11 Discovered(b+) 20-1 Mena M Sanner Daniel E. 24.81 0.81/$1
090.86 13 Bantu 15-1 Bejarano R Morrison Mike J. 28.26 1.33/$1
088.27 14 El Ahijado 15-1 Morales E Guerrero Sal 24.81 0.81/$1
086.87 4 Nepal Up 30-1 Serpa A Lobo Paulo H. 24.81 0.81/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 25.45, ROI 0.80/$1
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE
Bar
Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:27pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 72
Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar
#7 KULANI (ML=8/1)
#4 AZKAREE (ML=2/1)
#8 INDUS VALLEY MAN (ML=5/1)
KULANI - Faced tougher last race out at Charles Town. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this horse on my list of top contenders. A win percentage the likes of what Batista and Scott have achieved together is outstanding. In the last race at Charles Town this animal finished ahead of today's morning line choice. Potential play if the public follows the oddsmaker's morning line. This gelding is in good form, having run a good race on May 14th, finishing third. AZKAREE - This jock/handler duo has been producing a very lucrative ROI, right at +45. Looking at today's class rating, this pony is encountering an easier group than last time around the track at Gulfstream Park. This gelding is uppermost in earnings per race. Take a long look at this one in the paddock. Have to believe this early speed horse has a nice chance on this tight track. A quick move out of the gate, and this one gets position. INDUS VALLEY MAN - Jock hops right back atop after getting to know the race horse by riding last race out. That's always a good thing. This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +80. Just see his recent speed rating, 68. That one fits well in this bunch.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1 NOT A TRICK (ML=9/5),
NOT A TRICK - Usually I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance events in order to wager on him. This gelding didn't do much last time.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 KULANI is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park
PURCHASE
06/04/20, BEL, Race 7, 4.32 ET
06/04/20,BEL,7,6F [Dirt] 1:07:03 CLAIMING. Purse $36,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race In 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment due at time of claim otherwise claim will be void).
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 7 Take It to Scale 8-1 Ortiz. Jr. I Gullo Gary P. J 36.89 1.31/$1
099.27 4 Aced 6-1 Vargas. Jr. J A Guerrero Juan Carlos 36.89 1.31/$1
099.19 1 Riken 10-1 Cardenas L Donk David G. F 36.84 1.15/$1
099.06 13 Empire Line 3-1 Ortiz J L Weaver George TSE 36.84 1.15/$1
098.90 10 Le General 5/2 Franco M Nevin Michelle 36.84 1.15/$1
098.65 8 Bears Mafia 8-1 Davis D Englehart Jeffrey S. 36.89 1.31/$1
096.07 5 Mind Your Own Biz 20-1 Maragh R R Schettino Domenick L. L 36.89 1.31/$1
095.21 6 Call the Cat 20-1 Hernandez B Sciacca Gary C 36.89 1.31/$1
094.33 12 Northern Haze(b+) 12-1 Rosario J Miceli Michael 36.84 1.15/$1
093.36 2 Alongcametheprince 50-1 Silvera R Clarke Dylan W 36.89 1.31/$1
092.17 11 Macha's Reward 30-1 Cancel E Chapman James K. 38.02 1.27/$1
092.11 14 Fleet Warrior 50-1 Diaz. Jr. H R Miranda Luis A. 36.89 1.31/$1
091.41 3 Latin Love Bug 30-1 Gutierrez R Parker Joseph G. 36.84 1.15/$1
090.20 9 Blue Skies Forever 50-1 Harkie H K Ferraro James W. 36.89 1.31/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.77, ROI 0.79/$1
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Paul Leiner
Belmont Park Picks 6/4
Thu Jun 04, 2020 6:36 am
Sticking with Belmont today after a big day. Got two third place finishes and then Value Proposition wins the 8th and pays $11.20, $5.80 and $3.60 across the board and we hit the 10-12 exacta for $60.50. Here's three more today. Goodluck.
Race 1
#4 Desbordes $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 4-1-2
Race 8
#3 Tap It To Win $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 3-5-8
Race 9
#8 Sadler's Joy $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 8-13-1
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