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Jeff Siegel's Day Makers - 7/02/20

July 2, 2020

JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL DAY MAKERS FOR THURSDAY, JULY 2, 2020
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Jeff Siegel’s prime plays from around the country are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. Always the day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value and each selection should be given strong consideration both as a straight wager and as a key in vertical and horizontal exotics.
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BELMONT PARK – 7TH RACE. POST TIME: 4:32 ET
2 – SNIPER SHOT (7/2)

This lightly-raced and rapidly improving 4-year-olds moves up a level in class and must face several graded stakes performers in this one mile affai, and while his best form admittedly has been accomplished over wet surfaces we’re going to gamble that his progression will continue. The T. Pletcher-trained gelding is fresh from a career-top victory at Gulfstream Park, has trained very well since, retains regular pilot L. Saez, and should be comfortably placed on or near what projects to be an average early pace. At 7/2 on the morning line we’ll play in the win pool and as a key in the various rolling exotics.

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LOS ALAMITOS RACE COURSE – 7TH RACE. POST TIME 3:58 PT
1 – I’M SO ANNA (7/2)

Was supposed to be a good thing in her debut last month at Golden Gate Fields (she went off at 4/5) but whatever chance the daughter of Fast Anna had was lost when she broke several lengths slow and was eliminated. That she managed to put in a nice run to finish a willing third indicates the ability is there, so if she can leave with her field today the S. Sherman-trained filly could make amends at a much better price. The easy breezes since raced is a positive sign and this trip to Southern California is a good indication of confidence. The barn’s “go-to” rider R. Gonzalez take the call. Hopefully, it all adds up.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 La Kara Mia Beautiful-bred filly is out of an NYB champion yet was only a modest 8th sprinting on turf on debut, but Rice is a sharp 26% with second-out maidens, Irad shows up, and now she gets to do what mom excelled at; expecting much better.
#3 Central Park Rice firster goes for a patiend 6% debut barn, so she could need this, but there's a slew of solid works showing, they paid 65k for a daughter of 7.5k sire Central Banker, and like her mate, being a fresh new face isn't a bad thing; playable.
#1 Sharp Starr Dicey ML favorite was a wide and distant 8th off the layoff last time, so this post and that tightener says she can do better, but it's not like her first two starts were any great shakes, and at 2-1 she'd be a huge underlay; making her prove it.
Race Summary And it's not hard to surmise this was likely the plan all along with the 2, who was oddly spotted in a turf sprint on debut, since mom was a multiple graded stakes winning one-turn specialist, but she got a good spin last time and now it should be all systems go here, so play her aggressively to win and place, and you could really get some value by keying her to kick off the early Pk5, as there's nothing to fear here, and a big move forward means she'd be putting down a race the rest of these simply would not be able to handle.

Belmont Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#7 Jade's Dream Lightly raced runner returned off the long layoff with blinkers and as a first-time gelding and blew way up when 2nd, while a month clear of 3rd too, so off that tightener, and a huge form reversal, he could be poised for a real breakthrough; love his chances here.
#3 Microsecond Speedster dueled though crazy splits and paid the price late when 3rd, some 5 lengths behind the pick, though he likely won't have to work as hard early, and he's now second-time Pletcher and off the layoff too, so he could last a lot longer this time; underlaid contender.
#1 Blackjack Davey Odd ML favorite didn't run an inch when he broke last-of-13 on debut and passed a few tired runners late to be a non-threatening 8th, so why he's 2-1 on the ML doesn't make much sense, though Rice is 26% with second-out maidens, so he could wake up; mixed signals.
Race Summary The fact the pick was 64-1 last time will scare some people here, and that's great because the reality is that his effort was likely the real deal, since he had two huge equipment changes, and you can expect the same or even better here, so play him in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he tipped his hand with that big run, and there's no reason he can't back it up again today.

Belmont Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Mister Winston Brown runner surprised at 9-1 in a strong debut after stalking a hot pace early and getting up in time, and his tactical speed should get him the jump on the chalk, and the fact that one will be way overbet says this colt could offer a hint of value; look out.
#7 Creed Heavy ML favorite will be bet off the board off the very fast romp last time, and clearly he hits hard, but that was in the slop, and he got crazy fractions to close into as well, so at false odd, on dry land, he's got some questions to answer; backwheel time.
#4 Edge of Fire GP invader has a few runs against winners, which gives him an experience edge on the top-2, and he too has a bit more early speed than the 7, though he regressed last time, so you're allowed to wonder what he can deliver today; underneath only.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 3, but with the 7 being bet off the board that 7-2 ML might hold, and that seems like plenty of risk-reward on a runner who gives the impression he's got more to give, while owning a tactical advantage on his main rival too, so play him to win and place, and especially in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since budget players will be singling the chalk, even though he looks a bit dressed up on paper and could be vulnerable here.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 Mizzona Tactical type fits well with this group, and she appears to be one of the few in here with a ceiling high enough to deal with Spring in the Wind.
#5 Spring in the Wind Hasn't been particularly close in recent starts, but those have come with much better groups, and she's the clear one to beat at this level.
#3 San Nicola Storm Form tailed off near the end of 2019, but she has done almost all of her work with tougher company, so she's not impossible off the bench with this group.
Race Summary Mizzona and Spring in the Wind should be tough to get around in this spot, but the former might offer a slightly better price on the board.

Woodbine - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 Occasional View Didn't fire off the bench on the main track, but he is almost surely capable of better with that race under his belt. Those standing against have a case to make that he fired a dud in his 12yo debut and perhaps those old legs aren't what they once were.
#8 Wyatt's Town Flat comeback run, but he occasionally fires clunkers like that and bounces back just fine. The one to beat with back efforts that would be very tough here if he can bounce back on the drop.
#1 Sumerian Bell Tactical type will get a decent trip while tracking the splits, but his main track efforts are far superior to his turf runs.
Race Summary Occasional View didn't show much in the comeback run, but he is probably still capable of better as the likely second choice here.

Woodbine - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Canadian Secret Dropper has always faced better company, and though the running lines are flat, this much softer group might wake him up.
#9 Jacobs Call Chased and faded in the Hastings slop last year in the debut, and he'll get the blinkers off this time around. Forward player here?
#8 Uncle Howard Pace player will likely make a break for the front and try to take these are far as he can, but he has already had a couple chances at this level and didn't stick around late.
Race Summary Canadian Secret has never been in for a tag and owns some runs early in his career that would be very tough with these, and the class drop might be enough to get him back to that.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #3
Picks Notes
#3 REFINED Went down fighting after duel with the favorite at the Big M.
#2 YALL BENEATH ME Never seen a resume as gaudy as this one.
#1 HANOVERS BEST Mare could sit ideal trip from rail with Tetrick in bike.
Race Summary Race worth watching, if nothing else, with out-of-town invader Yall Beneath Me arriving with five consecutive front-end wins by a combined 89 lengths. Going with Refined, who dueled with the 7-to-5 winner through a :55.4 back half at the Meadowlands but settled for second.

Hoosier Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 HORNS FOR THREE Blew clear lead against similar, can make amends at better price.
#7 INFINITY STICK Slowed by back-pedaling leader late on turn, regrouped to win.
#2 ALWAYS BE WITH YOU Mare rallied into blanket finish while 4-wide, moves outside in.
Race Summary Horns For Three picked up cover behind a rival who broke stride on the final turn, cleared to the lead for the stretch drive and came up short at 3-to-5 odds. He will have to improve to turn the tables on the same rivals.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#10 UNPRECEDENTED Projected price and pace set-up offset bad starting spot.
#7 COOL ROCK No serious threat to pace controller, hard to back at 0-32 since 2019.
#9 STATE OF PLAY Slowed by pace, get livelier flow, use underneath in gimmicks.
Race Summary Unprecedented hooked an odds-on, repeat winner at bullring and should get ample pace flow to rally into at a generous price. Play 10-7 and 10-9 exactas.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #3
Picks Notes
#3 Fever Temple Was outrun on the dirt at Churchill is back to Indiana-breds; was 2nd in the Snack Stakes on grass last year and his best will make him a solid player here.
#1 Victor's Deal On the board in 10 of 12 lifetime starts and is and brought a deep closing move on the main track last time; does his best from just off the pace and can get a good trip.
#4 Strong Tide Will be heavily played off a 4th-place finish on the Churchill grass; makes his 1st Indiana Grand turf appearance.
Race Summary Fever Temple is back to the turf after finishing mid-pack on dirt in Louisville; that was after a six-month break and he can be expected to show sharp improvement in his return home.

Indiana Grand - Race #7
Picks Notes
#9 Sterling Miss Punched through with a solid optional claiming win last out here and takes a step up into to slightly better company; has taken 7 of 19 races and has had an effective, more-relaxed approach lately.
#5 Precocious Peach Rallied well and just missed at Gulfstream in her latest; well-traveled in just 14 starts and has picks up six wins. Always worth consideration.
#8 Inthemidstofbiz Had an outstanding spring at Oaklawn and has matured in her 4-year-old season; has been very game and can mix it up with these.
Race Summary Sterling Miss hasn't run many bad ones, especially lately, and has a solid rally she's unveiled recently. One to hold off as she moves over to the turf.

Indiana Grand - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Carmella Key Was 3rd in her last two races and was can improve off her 1st of the year; can be strong here with the added distance.
#3 Aiken to Be Taken Was very close in her last three and has had trouble finishing the job; can be very tough if the pace works out in her favor.
#1 Backstreet Lady Can get to the front end and will be a strong factor if she can relax through the pace; expect a good effort as she can get a ground-saving journey.
Race Summary Carmella Key can get an ideal trip from just off the pace and can make this her graduation day; biggest late threat.
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Alan Scozzari

GUARANTEED A WAGER Italy Serie A AS Roma -0,5 -1 +100

TIP OF THE DAY B WAGER England Premier League Sheffield Utd – Tottenham UNDER 2,5 -139
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