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Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 2, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park has another competitive 15-race card set to roll at 6 PM EST. The Late Pick 4 begins in Race 11 and will be my focus. That sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout. The Late Pick 4 pool on Monday night was a shade over $64,000.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

1-Trump's Wall (8/5)-Faded in 1st start off the bench as an even money chalk. Did beat four from this field in that start. Will look for better from the rail tonight.
2-One Rock (3-1)-3-year-old won last week and should be forwardly placed again. May take another picture.
5-Doin The Most (7-1)-Qualified nicely on Lasix and went the 2nd half in 56.1. Three-year-old could surprise at a square price.

Race 12

1-Warrior Way (9/5)-Didn't show much in qualifier but trainer gives the lines to Wrenn and drops to a comfortable level.
2-Queens Lonely Early (9/2)-Qualified from the 8-hole on a sloppy track and didn't show much. Will respect the Merriman-Rhodes connection and should offer a nice price. 12-year-old could get sucked around from this spot.
8-Here's Jolene (10-1)-Worked hard from the 9-hole in 1st start off a layoff and stays at the same level. Should like the company and at 10-1 in the morning line is worth a swing in the Pick 4 and in gimmicks.

Race 13

4-Adversary Seelster (7/2)-Had a tough trip from the 7-hole in last and will look for better tonight. Loses Merriman to #6 but Wrenn won 8 races last night and he can put this veteran in striking range.
6-Tico Time (3-1)-Hung in last week in 1st start of the meet and now is 2nd time Lasix. Went off as an odds-on chalk and should be bet hard again.
7-Red Dog Ryan (5-1)-Got on the engine and almost hung on last week. Fits with this crew and the Looney barn has been doing well. Could offer some value if Kash can provide a good steer.

Race 14

1-Chocolate Crackers (8/5)-Merriman takes a spin and there won't be much strategy involved. Drops to a soft spot and will look to wire this field.

$1 Pick 4

1,2,5/1,2,8/4,6,7/1
Total Bet=$27
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fort Erie - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 Silent Contempt MVR invader was running well earlier this winter when last seen, goes for a potent Buttigieg barn that had big success here last year, and should trip out just off the speed; look out.
#2 Sent From Heaven Tampa veteran heads north after running against better, and he owns a recency edge too, though at 3-for-41 winning isn't his forte, plus that run last was a real dud; trying to beat.
#1 Conqueror Galactus Stretch runner hasn't been out since November and has never run on dirt, so he's a real question make here, though his stretch running style could get him a share; can run on late.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 3 but that 5-2 ML would be an overlay, as he looks best, and doesn't have a recent bad race to worry about like the 2, plus his trainer is just aces in these parts, so play him aggressively to win and place at 8-5 or better, while getting some built-in value by singling him to kick off the early Pk4, as that's not a move the public likes to make to start a horizontal bet, which means he may longer than you think in the sequence.

Fort Erie - Race #5
Picks Notes
#5 Secret Trip MVR stretch runner catches a field loaded with speed, has been humming right along earlier this year, and starts for a very sharp Sullivan barn; mows them all down late.
#6 Dixie Brew Local stalker hasn't been out since September, so that's a worry, but she has four wins here, while the pick has never tried the oval, and she too will like the pace; using.
#3 Pachamama ML favorite runs off the Mileni claim, which is a small but big 2-for-3 angle, but that was in Feb. and he's been inactive since, which is not a very good sign; tabbing today.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's plenty of it here to aid the 5, who might be best as it is, so play him aggressive to win and place if you sniff anything close to this 5-2 ML, while getting some built-in value by keying him in the Pk5 and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since he looks to be getting all the best of it here for a barn that knows how to get to the winner's circle in Canada.

Fort Erie - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Capoeira Tampa runner is all turf/synthetic, so how she fares here is a a guess, but her form is very good, and recent too, which gives her a big edge, plus she's bred for the dirt; expecting a biggie.
#1 Light of Congrats ML favorite had some solid Tapeta form at PID last year but hasn't been out since September, so she likely needs this, especially with that meet opening in the coming weeks; next time.
#5 Anniversary Rose Speedster was setting/chasing hot paces at MVR, so in a race with comebackers and turf/synthetic types she's likely loose, though lasting is another story; know her early, not sure about late.
Race Summary That 4-1 ML on the pick seems impossible, lack of a dirt race or not, as her form is eons better than what the rest of these have done, especially since she's done it all winter/spring long, so even if you get 5-2 she's worth a win and place bet, though her real value comes in the late Pk5/Pk4, since you can be aggressive and key her, and just maybe she plays a bit longer than the toteboard says.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Lone Star - Race #4
Picks Notes
#5 Air Walker Can't really see a Joe Sharp debuter offering 20/1 here, and she's bred to be able to handle the trip. She doesn't meet a whole lot at first asking, so she'd be playable at something significantly shorter than her ML offering.
#12 Flamigo Bay Has been in with better groups in California, but I had expected something a bit better from her last time out and came away disappointed. Blinkers off with a tough draw. Demand a fair price.
#7 Visual Magic Disappointed at 4/5 in the local debut, but she's an obvious player right back with this bunch. Would want a much better price than she offered last out.
Race Summary Air Walker meets a couple of likely overbet horses listed above, and even if she gets bet down into the 6/1 range, there is not much else lined up in here, so she won't have to be a star.

Lone Star - Race #6
Picks Notes
#2 Marcy's Gray Girl Not usually one to chase 14-start maidens, but this one might fall into a really good trip here. The likely chalk will probably have some company near the top today, and this one can come running late at a trip we know she handles.
#7 Sweet Linda Most likely winner in here showed good pace behind an easy winner last out. The 29/1 price is long gone today as the blinkers go on, and I wouldn't be too excited about taking a short number here.
#1 Heavenly Rhythm Blinks go on for this second start while stretching around two turns, and her best shot would be to make a break for it from the fence and dare the rest to come and get her.
Race Summary Marcy's Gray Girl will need Sweet Linda to take some pressure in the early going, but she should offer a fair price in a relatively soft spot.

Lone Star - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Take That For Data Really wanted to get around this guy in here, but his baseline effort simply looks too good. There are a couple of other tough players drawn much further outside, so his post advantage gets him the edge.
#2 Bell Ringer Has run well on the engine going long on the turf in the past and may be able to work out the right trip from near the inside.
#10 Praetorian He's quick enough to overcome the tough post, but his dirt form is pretty clearly better than his turf form, and the price probably won't reflect that off the Broberg claim.
Race Summary Take That for Data owns several recent races that would be good enough to handle these, and the class drop with an advantageous post position may be all it takes to get him home today.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Scioto Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 HUNTING AS Useful return as 3yo, gets ideal set-up at a decent price.
#5 ROSE RUN VINDICATE Pulled pocket near ¾-mile mark, struggled to get past longshot for second.
#3 NOT THE NORM Carried his speed to 6-for-12 record as a 2-year-old, starts anew.
Race Summary Hunting As made up 9 lengths in his seasonal debut after the favorite went off stride, gets plenty of pace to run at and should offer the most value among the main contenders. Play 6-3, 6-5 and 6-8 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#2 BETTOR IN BLUE Even-paced while chasing fleet-footed 6-to-5 winner in comeback.
#6 ZERO THE HERO No match for 7-5 winner but clearly second best.
#3 SPORTS SPOOK A Has 34 wins but is 0-11 this year, drop to bottom and driver upgrade help.
Race Summary Bettor In Blue paced evenly though a 1:24.4 third-quarter split before fading. He can win at a boxcar price with a move forward off that comeback effort. Play a 2-3-6 exacta box.

Northfield Park - Race #14
Picks Notes
#1 CHOCOLATE CRACKERS Came back running, can’t go beyond in this spot.
#6 UBETTERUBETTERUBET No threat from post 7 but can’t be ignored.
#4 BAIT A HOOK Mild middle move into solid splits, can sustain better tonight.
Race Summary Chocolate Crackers held the lead through a :27.3 third quarter split but settled for second best. He takes another class drop and is today’s Best Bet from the rail.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 Echo Alpha Six Was a solid 3rd on the turf at Fair Grounds last year and was competitive at Turfway; should fit nicely at this track.
#4 Mutashabeh Won over the Colonial turf last year and is usually a strong player on the front end.
#10 Macho Mania Broke his maiden at Gulfstream West last year and can make a late run at these.
Race Summary Echo Alpha Six ran against some outstanding runners last year and has what it takes to get the candy here.

Mountaineer - Race #3
Picks Notes
#8 Pulpit's Purrfect Was a clear winner at Mahoning in March and having that start gives him an edge.
#6 Little Christy Has been over for two turf and when she last was competitive in stakes and allowance races at Woodbine; classy and capable.
#1 Devilish Magic Moves over to the turf and has the speed to be in the mix early on.
Race Summary Pulpit's Purrfect put away rivals and drew clear last time out; moves over from Mahoning and can be a big player form the start.

Mountaineer - Race #8
Picks Notes
#8 Dubull Ideally placed as he seems to be the only one capable of passing horses has been in some good races and gets a good pace setup.
#5 Sterling Rebel Was a played in some races over this strip last year and didn't run well at Charles Town; could excel in his return.
#7 Gran City Was on the board in his last three over this strip and can battle for the lead from the start.
Race Summary Dubull has a decent late move and should be in a great spot once a few of his opponents fade out after battling early.
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