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Jeff Siegel's Tampa Bay Downs Wagering Strategies - 4/15/20

April 15, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday, April 15, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B
Single: 1-Little Natalia

Forecast: Little Natalia shows a relatively brief work tab at Gulfstream Park for her comeback, her first race since her debut last July and her first for new trainer A. Machado. She lands top jockey A. Gallardo, sports a bullet three-furlong gate drill (36 4/5, fastest of four) late last month, and displayed some early speed in her only outing despite some early trouble. In a race that on paper figures to be slowly run early, the daughter of Handsome Mike could find herself on the front end, assuming she breaks well from the rail. In a race in which the known element is lackluster at best, let’s go with a fresh face and make her a straight play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 2-1.
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RACE 2: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-The Connector; 8-My Eclair

Forecast: The Connector, a son of City Zip colt from a Hard Spun winning half-sister to the terrific grass race mare Gotta Have Her, brought $250,000 as a Saratoga yearling and makes his debut sprinting on turf for a capable outfit. He has displayed enough ability in his main track workouts to expect a good effort first crack out of the box, and in a field that lacks depth he must be considered a major player at 5-1 on the morning line. The barn’s go-to rider takes the call, so with a clean break from the rail we’re expecting this T. Proctor-trained sophomore to have chance to produce a mild upset. My Éclair is the logical top pick, having displayed good speed in both of his starts. Shortening from a mile to a more preferred five furlong trip, the son of Speightstown ran well over this course and distance when second in his debut. The switch to top rider A. Gallardo is a positive factor while the outside draw shouldn’t be in an issue. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with slight preference on top, mostly due to price considerations, to The Connector.
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RACE 3: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Blue Chicory; 8-Blazing Brooke

Forecast: Blazing Brooke, a two-time winner over the local main track but a tad soft in the speed figure department, was four lengths clear of the rest when runner-up in a similar $6,250 two-turn affair here last month and will get plenty of play based on current form and strong connections. The K. O’Connell-trained filly has a good stalking style that should keep her free of trouble and provide her every chance to regain her winning form. Blue Chicory left her previous form behind with a dominating recent win vs. restricted (nw-3) $8,000 sellers over this track and distance after shipping up from Gulfstream Park. She goes from an extreme outside post to the good rail and on pure numbers actually is a bit faster than ‘Brooke. We’ll operate under the assumption that the winner will be one or the other, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Blue Chicory on top.
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RACE 4: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Milburn; 9-American Dream

Forecast: It appears trainer A. Granitz holds this aces in this $16,000 maiden claiming middle distance turf affair. Milburn had a couple of runs last year in straight maiden company, including a solid third place effort over this course in his debut. He returns in a moderate spot after a series of slow and easy drills at the Solera Farm Training Center in the northern part of the state. Let’s hope he’s ready. One of the barn’s go-to riders S. Camacho takes the call, so if this homebred son of Lemon Drop Kid returns as well as he left he’ll be tough to beat. The “other” Granitz in the field is another returning from a layoff, the Woodbine shipper Overpraise, who also has been prepared at Solera Farm. Unplaced in a pair of grass races in tougher straight maiden company but earning speed figures that make him a fit in this league, the son of Flatter may very well wind up being the pace-setter in race that projects to have soft early fractions. Given that type of trip, he could be dangerous. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with preference to Milburn, but it’s a keep-your-fingers-crossed type of race.
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RACE 5: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: X
Single: 8-Federale

Forecast: Maiden $40,000 claimers sprint six furlongs in the fifth race, a modest affair featuring an apparent standout, Federale. The Discreetly Mine gelding adds blinkers while dropping into a seller and should be too quick for these, assuming that the none of the newcomers are better than average for this level. Third with a career top speed figure in his recent comeback in straight maiden company here last month, the D. Bennett-trained gelding is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite but probably will go lower. We’ll make him a no value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 6: Post 3:00 ET. Grade: C
Use: 4-Rosalda; 6-I’m That Bird; 9-Big Angel

Forecast: Here’s a spread race, a middle-distance turf event for restricted (nw-2) $10,000 claiming fillies and mares. Rosalda has steadily improving speed figures and both of her career outings on grass weren’t bad, most recently when fourth in a much tougher $20,000 open affair here last month. A similar effort today could be good enough to beat this soft group. I’m That Bird also is dropping out of a tougher affair and is lightly-raced with possible improvement in her. She has numbers that fit, picks up S. Camacho, and hails from a solid outfit. Big Angel has a prior win over the course and numbers that fit. She’s a one-paced grinder who could be heard from late with a bit of help up front. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 7: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Devil’s Rule; 8-Absalom; 9-Jack B Winkle

Forecast: Jack B Winkle exits a stronger state-bred allowance optional claimer, and although he didn’t run up to his abilities in that race the Ford Larned gelding should improve a bunch at this level. His best race can win it, and from a comfortable outside draw for a strong trainer-jockey combo he should be capable of a bounce-back effort. Absalom looks intriguing at 6-1 in this extended sprint for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimers. He has the route-to-sprint, turf to dirt angle that we like for a good outfit and should be on or near the lead throughout. His one dirt race wasn’t much, but it came against tougher and it was off long layoff so we won’t hold it against him. Devil’s Rule, away since December, has low percentage connections but numbers that fit, and if he’s reasonably okay following the layoff in his first race for a tag, the Illinois-bred gelding rates a look and is worth including.
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RACE 8: Post 4:00 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Strong Gem; 2-Jackies Dream

Forecast: This split of the sixth race is borderline inscrutable. We’ll try to get by using just two but the best advice is to go as deep as your budget allows. Strong Gem projects to enjoy a good ground-saving trip, drops to a realistic spot, and has been first or second in three of four career starts over the Tampa Bay Downs turf course. At this level she should improve enough to be a strong off-the-pace threat. Jackies Dream also has been chasing tougher and has numbers that make her a fit. Likewise, she will be doing her best work late.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 P R Why Not Lightly raced runner was thrown to the wolves in an ALW on debut and predictably didn't fire, but was a decent 3rd to a runaway winner last time, has tons of upside here, and my be the third choice among the favorite; breakthrough time.
#5 P R Gold Play The clear favorite has the most consistent form here and will likely get first run on the pick off the far turn, but she's also now 0-for-8, so there's no upside here, not to mention she's tackling males for the first time too; second-best.
#1 P R Streakin Logical contender beat the pick comfortably when 2nd last time, so if you like that one then you have to give this dude a look, but the rail is no bargain, plus that last run came from nowhere, so a bounce today is possible; tread lightly.
Race Summary That 7-2 ML on the pick seems very fair, since he looks like he's going places while the other two seem stuck in neutral or destined to regress, so play him to win and place, while getting some added value by using him to kick off the early Pk5, since there's little doubt the other two favorites will take plenty of play, which means a win will be knocking out a lot of tickets right off the bat.

Fonner Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Who's the Diva Now Newcomer has been facing better while showing high speed at TuP, meets a local crew there for the taking, and the fact Olesiak is here show a lot of intent; look out.
#6 Shes the Beast Dangerous miss was a solid 4th in a stakes here last time, so this drop will help, as will her stalking gear for a Black barn that's having a banner meet; looms very scary.
#3 Pretty Rich Capable filly was just 2nd behind a romping winner, so she figures, but the McKinney barn is 1-for-49 on the year, and the top-2 have more upside too; trying to beat.
Race Summary That 10-1 ML is about as bad as you'll ever see, as the 4 could very well be 2-1, but the drop in class, top local jock, and sharp early speed all point to her as having this group over a barrel, so play er aggressively to win and place, while getting some guaranteed value by singling her in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4, as he looks poised to claen up in her local bow.

Fonner Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 I'm River Kentucky invader was facing eons better in the Bluegrass state, starts for a Martinez barn winning in droves here, should trip to just off the speed, it's comforting to not see him in for a tag off the no-show in the slop last time, and if he runs back to his prior runs, he'll lap this field; spotted to score.
#5 Man Camp The main danger enters off some very solid state-bred races at DeD in Louisiana and has been in fine form in three starts off the Gonzalez claim, but he's also been stuck in speed figure neutral, and if the pick delivers his best, then this guy will have no answer in the lane; underlaid contender.
#2 Masterful Stride Deep closer hasn't been out since September, when he was facing some good fields in some fast races (for the their respective level) at Canterbury, so he's not out of his element here, and there appears to be plenty of speed to set up his late run, though a win still seems out of reach; exotics appeal.
Race Summary Yet another terrible ML, so if the 3 is 6-1 run like heck because he's clearly not ready or off-for, but even in the 3-1 range he's worth a win and place bet, and you can key him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since his best is much better than these, and there's no reason to think he doesn't deliver it here.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 Comeonriley Sure, she was 68/1 last out when running an honest fourth last out, but she earned the field's best last-out BRIS speed figure in that effort in a fast race for the level. She might like the added ground and would be plenty attractive at anything like the 20/1 ML offering.
#10 River Liberty Wide draw will force the rider's hand to show some pace, but she ran a big one last out when running from close range, so she may hustle for position early and try to get first run turning for home.
#1 Peppermint Match That October Delta run would almost surely do the trick today if she's able to bounce back to something like that off the modest turf run with much better last out at Sam Houston.
Race Summary Comeonriley should be a fair price as she'll keep her share of detractors off the improved run last out at a huge price, but she had done her previous best work over the local footing, so she might just like it here.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Broadway County She seems likely to get overlooked with these, but there is a decent bit of pace signed on today, and she may be able to get a finishing run from off solid splits.
#8 Drip Brew Speed ran well in the Wilma Mankiller last out, and she draws well on the outside to flash that pace. She'll have some company, but it may not matter. One of the clear ones.
#6 Ima Discreet Lady This spot feels on paper like it might come down to the two chalks, and this one has a bit of a rating gear that might serve her well in this spot.
Race Summary Broadway County is worth an upset look in this one off a couple of improved efforts locally. She can sit a bit and finish, and her ceiling is probably just high enough to win this.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#6 Oklahoma Storm Much like the play in Race 2, I'll take a price swing on a runner showing improved form in that last race. This guy hadn't been much in recent starts, but considering he broke his maiden at Fair Meadows, he was probably just overmatched the entire time running at Remington, Sam Houston and Delta. If he can repeat his last, he's right there with this group while tracking the likely chalk.
#5 Elijah Anet Looks like the one to beat in an otherwise evenly matched spot, and there isn't a ton of other pace for him to worry about. Think he has a real chance to run this bunch off their feet.
#1 Ranger Bob Didn't run to his 5/2 price last time out, but his running lines are still in the ballpark of what it would take to win here, but he's going to be an underlay based on the barn when compared to his realistic chances of winning this.
Race Summary Oklahoma Storm woke up when making his local debut last out, and though he was 63/1 that day and the price gets shorter here, if taken at face value he's a great fit right back.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Argentinian Roots Was awarded a win via DQ two back and followed with a 6th vs. much better than she faces today; can make a solid late run here.
#4 Rosalda Has been steadily heading down the class ladder and lost position from 2nd to 4th late in her last one; good timing could make this one very tough late.
#6 I'm That Bird Was a non-threatening 1st in her 1st over this course and can be expected to improve at this level.
Race Summary Argentinian Roots was outrun in her 1st vs. winners and can get into a good position late in the game; fits well here.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 Good Solution Showed speed in all of his longer races, ships from Gulfstream and can battle from the start of this one; should be able to handle the switch from turf to dirt.
#4 Fog Warning Battled throughout his latest and settled for 2nd; was runner-up in his last turf and should be able to dig in vs. these.
#7 Devil's Rule Was an easy maiden winner at Indiana Grand two back and should be able to battle for this claiming price.
Race Summary Good Solution turns back in distance, goes from turf to dirt and can be a factor throughout; big player in his 1st local start.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Strong Gem Tried much better last time and returns to a more suitable class level; can track the pace and should be able to finish well.
#3 Strict Vow Was 3rd two back and was outrun in a longer starter handicap; takes a class drop and can be close throughout.
#2 Jackies Dream Has developed in a solid late runner and can probably stay a little closer this time; dangerous with a clean trip.
Race Summary Strong Gem was 2nd two back and can stay within range here; has a decent closing move and fits well in this spot.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,580 Class Rating: 60

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 IN THE NIC OF TIME (ML=5/1)

IN THE NIC OF TIME - This should be an easier task than what he was asked last time out against 'open' company. You have to consider the solid works of late.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 WOODS OF CONGAREE (ML=5/2), #9 POPPY'S OATS (ML=3/1), #5 BURBACH (ML=4/1),

WOODS OF CONGAREE - Last raced on Apr 7th at Will Rogers Downs, finishing fifth. Unlikely to advance off of that effort in today's race. POPPY'S OATS - If you keep selecting these sort of 'hanger' types, you're going to be disappointed often. Would have to improve off that fifth place finish last time to make an impact here. BURBACH - Not likely that the speed fig he recorded on Mar 31st will hold up in this affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 IN THE NIC OF TIME is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9200 Class Rating: 99

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 9 EXECUTIVE DECREE 5/1

# 2 BANDWIDTH 12/1

# 3 HEISAYANKEE 8/1

I think EXECUTIVE DECREE is a competitive choice. Shows evidence of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 93 speed figure which is one of the strongest in this field. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Wise running at this distance are the best in this group of horses in this race. If you examine closely, this one has some longshot possibilities. BANDWIDTH - Have to assume this equine will make a good showing again this time around. He should be given a shot given the strong speed numbers. HEISAYANKEE - Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of respectable win percentage - 24 percent - at this distance & surface. Has decent early pace and will almost certainly fare strongly versus this field.
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Nick Borrmann

BEST BET Double Play

4% CHINANDEGA +0.75
4% Jalapa +1.25 (-120)
3% Jalapa at Managua UNDER 2.75 (-115)
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Paul Leiner

Tampa Bay Downs Picks 4/15

Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:03 am
Shell Fire came in 3rd and we hit a small exacta with Tapsolution yesterday. Here's two from Tampa.

Race 5
#8 Federale $10 win/place
$2 exacta box 8-5-3

Race 7
#7 Devil's Rule $10 win/place/show
$2 exacta box 7-4-2
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