Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 4/22/20

Jeff Siegel's Tampa Bay Downs Wagering Strategies - 4/22/20

April 22, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday, April 22, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*

RACE 1: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-The Khan; 3-Bog Rig

Forecast: The new week begins with a restricted (nw-3) $8,000 main track middle distance event that appears to be a proper spot for The Khan, listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite. A distant second (though well clear of the rest) vs. similar over this track and distance earlier this month, the G. Bennett-trained gelding is a one-paced grinding type but should be able to settle in mid-pack and have his chance from the quarter pole home. S. Camacho knows him well and stays aboard. Big Rig, away since mid-October, has primarily been a turf or all-weather specialist in his career but on pure numbers he’s a solid fit with this group, so if can handle the main track he’ll be dangerous. The son of Big Brown projects as a second flight stalker and for a strong trainer-jockey combo and could fire a big shot fresh. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to The Khan.
*
*

RACE 2: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-My Masterpiece; 7-Pioneerof New York

Forecast: Pioneerof New York looks pretty solid in this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming turf router for fillies and mares. A clever winner with a pace-pressing journey over this course vs. slightly softer foes, the M. Casse-trained filly should enjoy a similar trip from just off the pace and then kick home when it counts. She’s solid in the speed figure department, retains A. Gallardo, and seems capable of putting good ones back to back. My Masterpiece is racing in good form and should be in the thick of things again. A close third as the 3-1 favorite in a similar affair last month, the daughter of Midnight Lute is long overdue for a win, switches to S. Camacho, and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Pioneerof New York on top.
*
*

RACE 3: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Lil Big Quick; 4-Super Twenty Five

Forecast: Super Twenty Five drops to her lowest level ever and appears to have found the right spot to regain her best form. All four of her wins have come over the local main track, and after exiting a much tougher, productive race, she’ll certainly appreciate this easier assignment. Regular pilot A. Gallardo fits her like a glove and should have the daughter of Super Saver on or near the lead throughout. Lil B Quick improved a ton in her first off the claim for T. Padilla, beating a $6,250 field by more than five widen lengths while earning a strong speed figure, one that if repeated here may be good enough to produce a repeat score. The daughter of Graeme Hall doesn’t need the lead to win but is probably most effective when pressing the issue throughout. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Super Twenty Five.
*
*

RACE 4: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Gesture; 9-Foxglove

Forecast: Gesture, purchased at auction a little more than a year ago for $240,000, clearly is being culled from the stable in just her third career start, a maiden $32,000 turf miler for 3-year-old fillies. However, the daughter of Tapiture has rising speed figures, a recent better-than-looked effort over the course, and a positive jockey change to the barn’s “go-to” rider D. Centeno, so there should be plenty of value to be found at or near her morning line of 5/2. She’ll be our main push in the rolling exotics, but we’ll also toss in Foxglove, a recent $30,000 claim by M. Stidham, who has superb stats (29% with a flat-bet profit) with this angle. The Fair Grounds invader has produced a forward move according to her speed figures in each of her four career outings and though beaten as the favorite in her last pair ran reasonably well when finishing second in both starts. The daughter of Oxbow appears most effective from off the pace, so it will be interesting to see if a change to patient tactics is employed.
*
*

RACE 5: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Top Seed; 4-Highland Park Hero; 6-Legacy Azteca

Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive first-level allowance optional claimer for older horses at six and one-half furlongs. Gulfstream Park shipper Top Seed, an impressive debut winner with as strong speed figure but then very disappointing when far back vs. non-winners of two last month, tries softer pickings today and the son of Orb can get back on the proper track with a repeat of his maiden score. The barn’s local favorite rider, A. Gallardo, takes the call, and two nice easy breezes at Payson Park indicate the 4-year-old colt is spot on. Legacy Azteca, second off the claim for excellent connections, is an old pro with a winning spirit and the proper style for this extended sprint trip. A three time winner (from just six starts) over the Tampa Bay Downs main track, the son of High Cotton likes to settle early and blast home and with good racing luck and a reasonable pace he’ll every chance to tag the speed in the final stages. Highland Park Hero, freshened since August, returns for a clever outfit showing a modest work tab, but if he’s ready the Ohio shipper has a legitimate look at a decent price. The son of Forestry should be part of the pace throughout and could stick around for at least a piece of it.
*
*

RACE 6: Post 3:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Durven; 7-Antalya

Forecast: After several uninspiring runs, Antalya drops to her lowest level while searching for a field that can lead to a form reversal. Perhaps this is where she belongs. The daughter of Skipshot shows recent speed figures that fit nicely in this league and always has been fairly consistent, with in-the-money finishes in 14 of 29 career starts. She likes to settle early and produce a late kick and under these conditions should have no excuses. Durven lands the good rail and projects to fall into an ideal, ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. Away since November, she returns waiver protected in this $10,000 claiming turf miler for a barn that is quite capable with comebackers. We’ll give the edge on top to Antalya but include both in our rolling exotics.
*
*

RACE 7: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Sense of Justice; 7-Blame the Cake

Forecast: Blame the Cake flashed ability in a promising debut at Saratoga last July, finishing an excellent second (while five lengths clear of the rest) to subsequent New York-bred stakes winner Bank on Shea while earning a speed figures that would bury this field. Off the strength of that effort, he was 9/5 in a similar spot next time out but wound up a distant fourth and was turned out to due to what we’ll assume was an issue that surfaced in the race. He’s gotten fit with a series of recent workouts at Lambholm South Training Center in the northern part of the state for the Ian Wilkes barn, which has excellent stats with layoff runners. The son of Blame should be hard to beat. With a solid race over the track in his first start since his debut at Parx last summer, Sense of Justice can be expected to move forward in this maiden special weight seven furlong sprint and is worth including on your ticket, at least as a back-up or a saver. The son of Street Sense was bumped and bounced around at the start in his most recent race, then displayed decent speed to move with range before staying on with some interest through the lane. The M. Stidham-trained colt might be quick enough to make the running and given that kind of trip could take this field a long way.
*
*

RACE 8: Post 4:00 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Summer Assault

Forecast: Summer Assault is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite in this first-level allowance turf sprint for 3-year-olds and based on pure form probably should go lower. The son of Summer Front broke his maiden at first asking over this course and distance while displaying a powerful late kick, and then ran well in two subsequent two-turn outings, most recently when a close third in the listed Columbia S. over a mile on grass. Back sprinting where we suspect he’s most effective, the sophomore gelding should be able to settle early and then tag the leaders in the final furlong. He’s a logical rolling exotic single to complete the day.
*
__________________

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 I'm a Rock Pace presser was a good 2nd at the level last time, drew perfectly for his style, meets a modest cast, and needs only reproduce his last to score; imposing.
#4 G Man Is in Town The speed caved badly after dueling early at WRD last time, but he looks the one to catch here,so on the drop he may last awhile; may get brave off the turn.
#1 Xavier Davey Stretch runner has been middling of late at the level and now looks at the mercy of a soft pace, which won't help his chances in the lane; underneath only.
Race Summary You certain;y won't get rich on the 5, or get that 5-2 ML either, but even at 8-5 or so he's worth an aggressive win bet, though his real value comes in kicking off the early Pk5, as you can single him to get some added value, as the betting public is hesitant to do that in the opening leg of a sequence, and that will also allow for more coverage in the remaning four legs, which look a lot more wide open than this one.

Fonner Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#1 Picadilly Roadster Class dropper has been in too tough of late, so this cut in half should be to his liking, and the cutback will give him more pace to rally into as well; mows them all down in the lane.
#8 Langs Legened The obvious chalk cut back and was 2nd, beaten just a neck, at the level last time, drew perfectly here, and will be tough to beat, though regression is possible too; still, plenty scary.
#3 Bronco Dave Price player got back to a fast track and ran much better, and if you toss his muddy runs two and three-back his form is solid, and he'll be close to the pace througout; worth a look.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 1, as will the class level too, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he could get overlooked a bit, even though the class droppers at the meet have fared well, and this one certainly qualifies in a race where there's just one to fear, and even that one has some questions attached.

Fonner Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 Alex Of Ice MVR MSW winner steps up today but has the figures on paper to not only play with this group, but handle them quite easily, and the Martinez-Martinez combo is a potent one; look out.
#7 Djinn of Djibouti ML favorite was a good 2nd off the Gonzalez claim last time, should trip out beautifully from this outside attack post, and will be tough if the pick falters on the class rise; the main danger.
#5 Backchatter Logical contender was a close 2nd in a local stakes last time, though with a very slow figure, but he too was trying winners there, so he's another with plenty of upside; seems in the mix.
Race Summary That 9-2 ML on the pick is another laughable Fonner ML, as 2-1 of 5-2 seems much more likely, so make an aggressive win and place bet if the tote allows, though you can get some added value by singling him in the late Pk5/Pk4, since he looks better than an average bunch, class jump in all, based on basically every one of his dirt races.
__________________

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#7 Mulberry Speed draws outside, but there isn't a whole lot of other serious early burn in here, so she may find herself on the engine and on an insurmountable lead in the lane -- or at least that's the hope.
#5 Reachreachreach Finisher can probably sit just a touch closer in the early going, and she might need to, because the pace may not be all that quick.
#4 Miss Perfecta Has rattled off four in a row, and while three of those were on the lawn, there was nothing wrong with that easy win on the Turf Paradise main last out.
Race Summary Mulberry is as loose on the lead as Leandro wants her to be in this spot with her stretchout pace, and we already know she can stay this kind of trip.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6
Picks Notes
#5 Just Blaze Finisher ran out of stretch last out when traveling five furlongs, and by my count there are six or seven pace and/or pressing types signed on in here. Sit back, wait, and outfinish these. Wouldn't be against taking an aggressive stand here based on the potential race shape.
#6 Kats Second Silver Has an ability to finish from a bit off the pace, and that should serve him well in a spot where many of the forward players aren't fast enough to find the front and aren't good enough to pass horses.
#7 Trapalanda Gets one of the better draws of those with some speed, and he has occasionally shown a mild rating gear that might let him work out a really good first-over trip.
Race Summary Just Blaze was finishing well going a furlong shorter than this last time out, and he should offer a fair price in a spot where the two horses to his outside are likely to take plenty of cash.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#11 Susie Derkins Total swing in a race where I don't want much to do with potentially short prices on the two runners listed below. This filly almost surely pops and stops off the bench while trying six furlongs for the first time, but the barn is 23% off long layoffs and this 9% rider connects at 16% on horses with this running style. Brief thrill at least at a price.
#3 Morgan's David Looks like the one to beat, but she's moving from a barn that had her going really well into a new one that is 0-for-6 at the meet. Cabrera signs on, which is a good sign, but the thought is this one is going to be overbet and doesn't have to win.
#10 Vallestina Can probably make a bunch more noise today if racing back on dry land, as her two- and three-back efforts both stack up really nicely with these.
Race Summary If Susie Derkins is even in the frame late, she'll probably be desperate to hold as she stretches beyond five furlongs for the first time. Still, she's almost surely fastest in the early going, and the jockey and trainer numbers offer some sneaky hope.
__________________

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 Autograph Usually is tough to beat when he gets the lead and has a good chance of that today; comes off a front-running win and has taken two of his last three.
#2 The Kahn Improved position but could not catch a loose leader last time out; it was his best effort in November and can improve.
#10 Osvaldo Was outrun by tougher last time and should be able to get a good stalking trip; would not be a surprise.
Race Summary Autograph moves up a step in conditions after a solid score; can be in front from the beginning of this one and should be able to turn back challengers.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#2 Lil B Quick Crushed rivals last time in her 1st for Padilla stable; has been tough over this strip and can repeat.
#3 Alluring Approval Was 2nd in three of her last four, including her latest when she was runnerup to Lil B Quick; can come closer with her best effort.
#4 Super Twenty Five Takes a significant class drop and can be dangerous on the front end; has a class edge but the severe drop raises questions.
Race Summary Lil B Quick was ultra impressive last out and anything close to that should get her back into the winner's circle.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Saucy Don Set the pace and was caught in the final strides last out; 10-year-old can get the lead and will be difficult to catch.
#2 Top Seed Broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park and tired badly against winners; ships in and can be a factor from the start.
#6 Legacy Azteca Has been a steady closer and was sharp in two straight wins in January and February; will be a late factor.
Race Summary Saucy Don is quick, can get to the lead and should benefit from the inside post; can dig in vs. these.
__________________