Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 6/10/20

Mike McClure

NASCAR

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Kyle Busch (9-2)
2. Martin Truex Jr (11-2)
3. Denny Hamlin (9-1)
4. Brad Keselowski (6-1)
5. Kevin Harvick (10-1)
6. Joey Logano (9-1)
7. Ryan Blaney (11-1)
8. Chase Elliott (15-2)
9. Clint Bowyer (20-1)
10. Jimmie Johnson (20-1)

FujitaPunter

BASEBALL SOUTH KOREA: KBO
KT Wiz Suwon - KIA Tigers
Under 10.5

BASEBALL TAIWAN: CPBL
Chinatrust Brothers - Fubon Guardians
Under 12.5
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Mike McClure

NASCAR

The model began its season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven top-10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and the Toyota 500 at Darlington. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race.

NASCAR Bets I've locked in as of 10:15 PM EST 6/8

Outright Winner

Kyle Busch +450
Denny Hamlin +900
Kevin Harvick +1200
Clint Bowyer +2200

H2H Matchups

Denny Hamlin +100 vs. Brad Keselowski
Joey Logano +100 vs. Chase Elliott
Clint Bowyer +115 vs. Jimmie Johnson
Kevin Harvick +100 vs. Ryan Blaney
Matt Kenseth +115 vs. Aric Almirola

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Kyle Busch (7-2)
2. Martin Truex Jr (11-2)
3. Denny Hamlin (6-1)
4. Brad Keselowski (11-2)
5. Kevin Harvick (12-1)
6. Joey Logano (8-1)
7. Ryan Blaney (10-1)
8. Chase Elliott (15-2)
9. Clint Bowyer (22-1)
10. Jimmie Johnson (20-1)

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belterra Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#6 Appealing Julia Pace player looked good winning last time at TP, has run well over the main track before, and drew perfectly for her attacking style; call right back.
#1 She's No Drama Projected inside speed was in against eons better at CD last time, so this drop will help, though wiring from the inside won't be easy; second-best.
#3 Sweet Brynlie ML favorite has run just once since Dec., and that was a modest 6th at TP, plus she's never tried dirt, so what you get is a guess; making her prove it.
Race Summary That 9-2 ML seems like a fair price on a gal who is in form and should be able to make her own trip here, so play her to win and place, and especially in the early Pk4 as well, since she could get ignore a bit, and a win in the $10 range, in what is just a six-horse field, would add plenty of value to the sequence.

Belterra Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Mystic Miss CD invader was in against tons better in an MSW last time, in what was her dirt debut, yet she ran a solid 8th at 99-1, with a huge figure (for these), so off that tightener, on a seismic class drop, she figures primed; imposing.
#3 West Coast Temple Stretch runner rises in class off an improved 4th in her return to the dirt at Sam Houston, and that was a better meet than normal this year, and, aside from the pick, there's no one here to be scare of; could spice up your exotics.
#4 Lady Fatma Incorrect ML favorite was a meek 6th in the slop on debut at Will Rogers, and note she was 5-2 that day and didn't have an ideal trip, so she'll likely do better here, though she needs to wake way up to beat the pick; underneath only.
Race Summary You'll need to be creative with the 1, as that 7-2 ML is more likely 6-5, but you can still make a win bet if she drifts closer to 8-5 or so, plus you can use a price underneath in the EX like the 3, but her real value comes in kicking off the late Pk4, as you can single her, which is a move the betting public doesn't like to endorse to kick off a horizontal sequence, and therefore that will give you a bit of value on a gal who can probably name the score against a group like this.

Belterra Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#9 Midnite Thunder Drury firster goes for a barn that clicks at a strong 5-for-25 with firsters, with a big $2.66 ROI as well, so from the right outside attack post, with main man Franklin up (35% for this barn here), this one looks very live; thinking he's primed.
#4 Ronni's Day ML favorite has run well in both starts since a rough debut, and she has plenty of speed too, but she's now facing males, so the waters are deeper, and if the pick can in fact run, he's probably going to be a bit too much; looms the main danger.
#7 Forever Diamond Newcomer has a slew of works showing for his debut, including a sharp 4/10 bullet on the Polytrack at TP, and McKee, one of the top local jocks, is named to ride, so you're allowed to think there's some serious intent here; hardly impossible.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 9, as he's supposed to be live and taking money if he's ready to roll, and if that's the case you can play him in all the slots, though you'll get some built-in value by using him to end the late Pk4 as well, since this isn't the toughest group you'll ever see, and he starts for a barn that has a lot of success prepping first-time starters to run big.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Lone Star - Race #5
Picks Notes
#4 Carpe Eros Hasn't shown a ton of interest in a couple of main-track starts, but he's got at least a little upside on the surface switch and will offer a fair price in a race where a couple of the logical horses might have to work a little bit early.
#2 Carlea's Dream Forward player probably doesn't absolutely need the lead, but he's probably best when he finds the front. He might take a bit of pressure today which is the only thing keeping him from being on top in this one.
#1 Battleship Bevo Has been an improved horse since the connections stretched him around two turns, but he's still a bit flat late in the lane and figures best used underneath with this group.
Race Summary Carpe Eros has some room to move forward on the switch to the turf, and she might appreciate a bit more leisurely route tempo while trying two turns for the first time.

Lone Star - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Welder He has never run over the local footing, but he has run well over several courses, so that's not a real issue. He's got a tactical edge on his main danger here.
#2 Lasting Legacy Looks like a chalky two-horse kind of race, as this guy drops out of a couple of decent efforts with Grade III company. He moves into the Calhoun barn, but Welder looks quicker early and has a recency edge, too.
#5 Awesome Saturday Just missed in a heartbreaker last out, but he and the winner both got an excellent race shape to kick into from off the splits. Not sure he's getting that day.
Race Summary Welder should get a great run right up top in a spot without a ton of front-end speed. He's consistent and turned in a sharp effort in his comeback.

Lone Star - Race #9
Picks Notes
#1 Call Me Richard The rail draw makes this one tricky, but his best stuff stacks up well with the horses who are going to be much shorter prices than he is. He can try to wire a speedy group or take his chances rating in the pocket.
#8 Thatsafactjack Forward player will be mixing it up early on, but he draws well while outside of all the other serious pace. His rider can get him out of the gate and find a good spot right up on the splits while outside of the other pace.
#4 About Our Time Would be one of the ones to benefit if all the pace goes at it in the early stages today. His typical effort isn't too far off what it'd take to beat the main players.
Race Summary Call Me Richard looks interesting, even from a tough rail draw. The price needs to hold up, but if he's offering double digits somehow, he's worth the risk off a really good run last time out.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Buffalo - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 AWAKE MY SOUL No match for sharp winner, gets ideal set-up, today’s Best Bet.
#2 TURBO DIVA Faded in open company, fits with these despite 1-20 record since 2019.
#5 HEAVEN’S DIVA Solid numbers, due for victory, been away three months.
Race Summary Awake My Soul was trapped 3-deep until the stretch and settled for second best behind the runaway winner. She projects a dream trip in a speed-laden field and should bounce back as the favorite. Play 3-2 and 3-5 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#8 MANOFMANYLUVS Comeback win better than it appears, take right back.
#3 KEVIN’S NOT HERE Stayed flat in qualifier for new barn, takes hopples off, Lems sticks.
#4 LUCKEY STORMIN Wired field in same spot in 3yo debut to improve to 5-for-12.
Race Summary Manofmanyluvs showed marked improvement in his seasonal debut and won despite being parked the mile. He starts from post 8 but lures Merriman in repeat bid. Play an 8 with 1, 3, 4 with ALL trifecta.

Northfield Park - Race #13
Picks Notes
#2 MIDNIGHT MATT Burned late money with first-time Lasix, can atone at inflated price.
#4 CRUSOE HANOVER Drops, gets driver upgrade, tries to recapture form from last year.
#1 RYCROFT N Failed to sustain middle move, starts from rail, use in gimmicks.
Race Summary Midnight Matt took late money, broke stride early, rushed up, then faded. He won a qualifier since then and should offer better value in his second start with Lasix. Play 2-1 and 2-4 exactas.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Thistledown - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 Star Mabee Has won seven races over the Thistledown strip and has done well at this level; tough vs. state-breds.
#5 Panamaniac Was up in time in here in last of 2019; has won six over the strip and will be a factor.
#6 G's Ship Load Crushed rivals in three of her last four here last year and won off her last three layoffs.
Race Summary Star Mabee is no stranger to the Thistledown winner's circle and rates an edge in a competitive spot for Ohio-breds.

Thistledown - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 Josie the E F Five Failed in her last two at Oaklawn after posting an easy win there; was claimed by Puhl three back and at this track can get back to winning ways.
#3 Run Mickey Run Is rarely outrun for a half mile of her races and can be very tough if she's clear turning for home; has won seven here.
#5 Hidatsa Park Has a steady closing move and gets a fast pace to chase here; would not be a surprise if she blasted past them late.
Race Summary Josie the E F Five has some class to her and can be effective in this starter allowance; turns back in distance and came from from behind to get this one.

Thistledown - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 Grizabella Has spent a lot of time chasing Ohio-bred standout Lonas Reward and has the talent to cross over to open company.
#1 Edge of Night Was a multiple stakes winner last year as a 2-year-old, steps up to experienced company but comes off a good 3rd. Late threat.
#8 Shore of Eden Enjoys life on the front end and has a good chance to battle from the start; seeks 4th straight win.
Race Summary Grizabella is the class of this outfit and will have to get tuned up early; likes longer distances but should be flying late in this sprint.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Thistledown - Race #1 - Post: 12:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,100 Class Rating: 68

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 BLANCONIA (ML=4/1)
#6 G'S SHIP LOAD (ML=3/1)
#3 STAR MABEE (ML=6/1)

BLANCONIA - Every now and then I take some time off, when I come back to the track I feel refreshed. I think it's the same with this mare as she always seems to run well after a vacation. Ran in the last race against a better field at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. The move to a lower level should suit her well. This mare has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Radosevich. Better watch out for this angle. This horse absolutely loves this surface. All her victories have been here at Thistledown. G'S SHIP LOAD - When Bracho and Radosevich combine forces on animals the win pct has been outstanding at 32. TrackMaster keeps good stats on this type of information. This mare always seems to run well after a layoff. Last out, this one was in a race at Thistledown in a race with a class figure of 80. Dropping considerably in class rating today puts her in a solid position in today's race. STAR MABEE - Berrios comes to ride after getting to know the mare in the last race. Based on the TrackMaster data I've reviewed, this mare should run well off the layoff. A big drop in Equibase class figure points from her Dec 11th race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this horse the edge.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PANAMANIAC (ML=5/2), #2 ROSETTA GRAY (ML=6/1), #1 RIO BO (ML=8/1),

PANAMANIAC - Tough to wager on any animal in a short distance event at 5/2 when she hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last couple of months. ROSETTA GRAY - The Brain tells me to keep away from thoroughbreds in short distance contests that haven't finished in the money in short distance races recently. RIO BO - Doubtful for this one to make a winning move with no success lately in a sprint race.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - BLANCONIA - A pace examination shows this animal should have the pace to wire this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 BLANCONIA is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
7 with [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Gulfstream Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 WILD ABOUT THIS (ML=8/1)
#8 JOSEFA (ML=10/1)
#13 UNCAPTURED RUBY (ML=8/5)
#3 PLATINUMCENTS (ML=5/2)

WILD ABOUT THIS - Have to give this horse a long look. In recent races, has posted the best speed ratings on the turf at this distance. JOSEFA - This speed freak should profit from this contest's shorter trip. Strong average class rating on this horse. Should have the capability to run well on the turf. UNCAPTURED RUBY - You always have to be on the watch for profit making rider/handler combos; we have one right here. Delgado drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to think this animal should be one of the top contenders at this level. Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a nice outing in the last race within the last month. PLATINUMCENTS - De La Cerda has a very solid win percent in turf sprints. This filly should be fit and ready to go. I like to bet on this angle, a racer coming back off a solid contest within the last month or so. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should run well today. PP lines show this racer with three improving speed figs. Zayas should be on a live one right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 NEEDS NO ALIBI (ML=3/1), #5 RANK AND FILE (ML=4/1), #7 HECHIZADA (ML=6/1),

NEEDS NO ALIBI - Would have to get much more than the M/L odds of 3/1 to bet on this horse. RANK AND FILE - Not easy to wager on any horse in a sprint affair if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last sixty days. Don't believe this runner will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. HECHIZADA - Tough to like the downward flow (61/58/43) of speed figs. In the last affair this mount finished tenth. Doesn't bode well for her chances this time.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - JOSEFA - My data says it usually takes a horse a couple of races after a layoff to get back into proper shape. That's just what we have here, so I have good feelings for this horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#9 WILD ABOUT THIS is the play if we get odds of 6/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [8,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
Skip
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

06/10/20, GP, Race 10, 4.45 ET
06/10/20,GP,10,1M [Dirt] 1:33:01 CLAIMING. Purse $20,000 (includes up to $2,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since March 10 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $8,000 (Races Where Entered For $6,250 Or Less Not ConsideredIn Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 9 Snap Hook 4-1 Lopez P Delgado Jorge JTEWL 31.44 1.24/$1
096.35 4 Geonosis 3-1 Trejos J Sano Antonio 33.21 1.09/$1
094.99 5 Sultry Samurai 9/2 Berrios H I Dobles Elizabeth L. FC 31.44 1.24/$1
093.41 6 Third Army 5/2 Zayas E J Gallegos Jose A. S 33.21 1.09/$1
093.23 8 Strategic Outlook 10-1 Fuentes M Richards Renaldo 31.44 1.24/$1
092.05 2 Cowboy Bob 8-1 Torres C A Pompay Teresa M. 31.44 1.24/$1
090.74 7 Doctor D J 15-1 Vasquez M A Dwoskin Steven 31.44 1.24/$1
090.68 1 Colin a Winner 30-1 Juarez N Antonucci Jena M. 31.44 1.24/$1
090.66 3 Baba Tobi 20-1 Rodriguez A A Rodriguez Hector F. 31.44 1.24/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.52, ROI 1.02/$1
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

06/10/20, TAM, Race 3, 1.27 ET
06/10/20,TAM,3,1M 40Y [Dirt] 1:38:04 CLAIMING. Purse $11,500. FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since May 10 Allowed 2 lbs. Such A Race Since April 10 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $6,250 (Races where entered for $5,000 or less not considered) (Registered Florida Breds Preferred).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 1 High Rolling Dude 9/2 Morales P Caruso Nick Joseph JFW 36.36 1.66/$1
098.67 7 Perfetto 5-1 Centeno D Bennett Gerald S. S 33.33 1.03/$1
097.20 4 Zitman 9/5 Garcia W A Sweezey J. Kent EC 33.33 1.03/$1
096.88 5 Brandt 12-1 Ferrer J C Bennett Gerald S. 36.36 1.66/$1
096.10 2 Big Money Machine 7/2 Mejia T B Hinsley David H. 33.33 1.03/$1
096.03 6 Das Da One 15-1 Villa-Gomez H Caruso Nick Joseph L 36.36 1.66/$1
095.45 8 English Laughter 8-1 Allen. Jr. R D Ferraro M. Anthony 28.33 1.10/$1
095.03 3 Guerreron 8-1 Hernandez H O'Connell Kathleen 36.36 1.66/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.27, ROI 0.72/$1
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 68

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 STORMY MERLOT 20/1

# 8 SPELLBINDING 9/5

# 6 MISS UNDERRATED 6/1

STORMY MERLOT has a solid shot to take this race especially at a long price. The odds might be right on this entrant. SPELLBINDING - Appears to be the type to be helped with second time Lasix here. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 58 - of her last affair. MISS UNDERRATED - Ought to be given consideration in this competition if only for the solid speed figure put up in the last contest. Has recorded formidable Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past.
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 67

FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 CADDO FOX 8/5

# 6 CLEAR ADVANTAGE 20/1

# 2 TEXAS CROSSBOW 9/2

CADDO FOX has a very good shot to take this race. He has been running well as of late while recording sharp speed figures. With Sorenson on top him, this gelding ought to be able to break out quickly for this event. The speed figure of 65 from his last affair looks quite good in here. CLEAR ADVANTAGE - Should expect a formidable outing with the class drop. He has competitive class ratings, averaging 72, and has to be carefully examined in here. TEXAS CROSSBOW - With Diego on top him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out quickly here. With a competitive 56 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this outing.
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Paul Leiner

Gulfstream Park Picks 6/10

Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:27 am
Bottle Shock wins the first and we get a 3rd place finish from Fortune Ticket yesterday at Lone Star. Today I capped three races from Gulfstream. Stay safe.

Race 1
#3 Platinumcents $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 3-5-8

Race 5
#9 Tik Tok Famous $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 9-5-6

Race 9
#7 Sole Volante $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 7-4-1
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