Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 6/17/20

Inkbets

BLAST Premier: G2 ML v ENCE @ 1.77/-130 (3 Units)
-Successfully faded G2 a couple days ago but this line seems to be far too tight for the real gap between the two. Now that G2 is ranked #1 by HLTV I find it hard to see them consistently blowing games over and over. After being reverse swept by BIG in a BO5 and then losing 0-2 to Vitality this should be a redemption match for them.Their map pool is deeper, they have the more talented roster, and their upside is as good as any team in the world. Now that they've had a day off to regain composure and prepare for this game I find them winning this more often than not. -130 implies 56.5% but I'd put this closer to the 62% range and price them at -163.Given that ENCE autoban Vertigo that leaves G2 open to whatever they please and that's a hard thing for ENCE to prepare for. You're left in a state of uncertainty as G2 could go to a variety of maps. Like G2 in this spot a lot.

LOOTBET: Wisla Krakow +1.5 v HAVU @ 2.12/+112 (1.5 Units)
-Not a ton behind this as I don't know a ton of Wisla in their current state, but I'd never lay HAVU -1.5 at their line with their current form. They've fallen off a ton and Wisla can easily snag a map in one of these shitcups online.

ESL Pro League Qual: CORRECT SCORE Virtus Pro 2-1 v Spirit @ 4.84/+384 (1 Unit)
-Virtus Pro are catching a stride since adding YEKINDAR and Spirit have had very shaky results recently. Mainly a play on the price more than anything else as Overpass will be a problem for VP. Spirit should win that one and rather than laying VP @ +160 I'd prefer to play the series score prop at this line for smaller. IF VP win, it would be 2-1 more often than 2-0. if the o2.5 was a hair higher I'd have opted for that, but will throw a modest 1u on this prop.

WePlay: HellRaisers +1.5 v Nemiga @ 1.80/-125 (2 Units)
WePlay: HellRaisers ML v Nemiga @ 3.80/+280 (0.5 Unit)
-Watching this HellRaisers team a few weeks back I was disgusted. They did nothing well and lost almost every meaningful duel. With that said, they've been marginally better in recent games. Still nothing special by any means but the same is to be said for Nemiga.Nemiga had a good run in the Road to Rio matches but there's always those CIS region teams that manage to do that. Every single major. This price feels like a drastic overcompensation still from those games and will try a stab at HR here since Nemiga permaban Train and HR ban out Overpass leaving a bunch of high variance maps.
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Jeff Siegel's Day Makers - 6/17/20

June 17, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Day Makers for Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Day Makers – his prime plays from around the country - are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. The day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value and should be given strong consideration both as straight wagers and as keys in vertical and horizontal exotics.

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Gulfstream Park – 2nd Race. Post time: 12:30 ET.

8 – Heavenly Blessing (4-1)

Ran much better than the line will show in his debut three weeks ago when finishing a willing third (beaten just over three lengths) before galloping out in front past the clubhouse turn. In that race, the son of Young Brien was forced to steady inside in close quarters when vying for the early lead, lost his action, took plenty of dirt behind a wall of horses when angling off the rail, and then finished with interest, all of this happening in a four and one-half furlong dash. The R. Rodriguez-trained juvenile gets an extra half furlong to work with today, so with a clean break and clear sailing we’re expecting the Florida-bred colt to earn his diploma in a similar maiden claiming $25,000 affair for 2-year-olds.

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Delaware Park – 3rd race. Post time: 2:15 ET.

8 – Royal Collection (12-1)

Intriguing first-time starter has trained like she’s ready to win right off the bat for trainer A. Delacour, who employs “go-to” rider D. E. Centeno (29%) in this mile turf maiden affair for fillies and mares. The daughter of Munnings was produced by the multi graded stakes winning grass mare My Princess Jess, so it’s understandable that she begins her career in this type of race. Her work tab is good – she’s been breezing in company with her older multiple-stakes winning barn mate Eons – so at 12-1 on the morning line (she’ll go lower) this talented 3-year-old filly offers considerable value in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play.

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Delaware Park – 6th race. Post time: 3:45 ET.

2 - Skol Factor (5-1)

Missed by a neck in his debut to Belmont Stakes-bound Pneumatic and then as expected crushed a maiden field at 4/5 in his next outing in a fast, highly-rated race while being geared down in the final 70 yards. By The Factor (and therefore bred to handle turf) out of a mare by Tiznow (and therefore bred to handle two-turns), the 3-year-old gelding from the M. Robertson barn (28% with stretch-out plays) lands a good inside post and could easily inherit the role as the controlling speed. He’s a major play at anywhere near his morning line at 5-1 (he’ll go lower) in addition to being a logical rolling exotic single.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Canterbury Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#1 Elusive Force Price player has been doing the turf/synthetic thing of late, and long on dirt before that, but he's actually 1-for-1 at this trip, will be a price, and gets a ton of speed to rally into; upset special.
#5 Royal Privacy Speedster did well to draw outside some of the other gas and has some solid recent form, though there's still some outside pace, so he's going to have to run hard every step; second-best.
#3 Saved By Zero Diordoro charge is the class and will be bet accordingly, but his last few have been beyond terrible, he's now being given away for 4k, and seems a fraction of what he once was; no thanks.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's plenty of it here, and that could really help the chances of the 1, while potentially hurting those of the 5 and 3, so play him in all the spots, and especially to kick off the 10% takeout Pk5 as well, since he could fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would knock out plenty of tickets right off the bat.

Canterbury Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#2 Honey's Sox Appeal OP invader got run off her feet off the long layoff last time and didn't fire when further back than usual, but that should set her up here, in a race loaded with speed, as she doesn't figure to be that far out of it early, and will be that much tighter second-off the break, over a track she loves (18-9-5-1); look out.
#5 Ready to Runaway The pick's 'mate is another with a gaudy local mark (7-5-2-0), and she drew outside most of the speed, which will help, and she has stalked and won in the past, but she's still going to be on the hard chase the entire way, which could leave her vulnerable in the lane; clearly the one to beat, but there are hurdles.
#4 Ari Gia Defending champ returned with a tiring 3rd at WRD last month, and considering that was off a September break, she held pretty well in the lane, but the waters get a lot deeper here, and this is a tougher group than last year, and the race flow won't flatter her running style; thinking she comes unglued in the lane.
Race Summary The price and race flow should both be right on the 2, who won't be on the lead but won't be as far back as she was last time either, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5, as she's not going to be ones of the favorites, who could dominate the pool, which means a win would knock a lot of the budget players out who can't get deep enough to cover here.

Canterbury Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#7 United Patriot Intriguing sort blew up second-off the break last time and won for fun in fast time at WRD, and while a bounce is definitely in play, take note his return was in the mud, and his prior two to end 2019 at RP were solid (on figures), so you might want to take that win at face value; call right back.
#9 Chris and Dave ML favorite was facing better all winter at OP then jran a distant 2nd to a buzzsaw and repeat winner at WRD, so there's little doubt he's the one to beat, but the price will be on the short side, especially since this post is as bad as it gets, so sure he could win, but he'll have to earn it; scary, but no lock.
#6 Malibu Pro Versatile sort was a pace-setting 4th off the Diordoro claim at OP last time but has also stalked and run well, so regardless, he should be on or just off what looks like a relatively modest pace here, but he really didn't improve off the claim, which is always a worry for this potent barn; underneath only.
Race Summary You're going to get plenty of value on the 7, who might get overlooked since the win last time was seemingly out of nowhere, but there's reason to believe he can run back to it, and the risk-reward will certainly be there as well, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to end the 10% takeout Pk5 as well, since a win would likely blow things up to end what looks like an already very tough and deep sequence.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Evangeline Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 Last Appeal Seems to be very realistically placed for the debut run, and sire Half Ours gets some decent turfy types in Louisiana.
#3 One Tough Charlie Showed a bit of forward ability in some of those Fair Grounds tries, and perhaps the move to the turf will allow him to stick around a bit better.
#7 Annualized No doubt the one to beat off the tries at Gulfstream, but now he's moving out of the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn and will have to hold that form for the new team here at a short price.
Race Summary Last Appeal debuts in a spot that doesn't have a ton of depth to it outside of Annualized, so it might be the right spot for a debut runner to make an impact.

Evangeline Downs - Race #4
Picks Notes
#6 Jolie Gee Longshot meets plenty of need-the-lead types, and she finished with a little bit of energy over the local footing last year. Along late at a big number?
#3 Sunshine Deelite Meets some other pace to deal with, but this is a big drop for a quick filly who should be in the mix from the bell and owns good turf form with better.
#2 Itsnotmyjob Pedigree hints that she should handle the turf, but she draws near the inside in a spot with other pace stacked up outside of her, so this may not be an easy trip.
Race Summary Jolie Gee gets a good race shape to work with in a spot with plenty of early burn to set things up for a late rally. Her local turf tries aren't bad, and the price will be right.

Evangeline Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#7 Hermano T K Has done pretty good work locally and woke up with a good effort at Fair Grounds when last seen behind a tough winner. Big chance from close range.
#6 That's D 'cat Dull run when fourth at Delta in February as the even-money favorite, but he's capable of something a bit better than that and owns a solid record over the local footing.
#1 Two Steppin' Star Finisher might be able to save ground inside and rally late for a piece of this, and he owns a couple of races from Fair Grounds this winter that would be good enough to get in the mix at a price.
Race Summary Hermano T K caught an easy winner in that last run, but he draws well to track the pace in this spot and owns a high enough ceiling to beat the chalk drawn inside of him.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 BANKN-ON-EMILY Loomed boldly until back-pedaling in the stretch, all-or-nothing type.
#2 TAKE SHAPE Second-time Lasix as good of an angle as any in this field.
#1 BROADWAY K Didn’t carry over winning form from the fairs as a 2-year-old.
Race Summary Bankn-On-Emily was shuffled to fourth early, made a first-over run at the 7-to-2 winner into the final turn, but back-pedaled in the slop when last seen in February. She gets an equipment change and could run away from this field as today’s Best Bet.

Northfield Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#8 FLAWLESS STONE Third behind odds-on runaway, has chance against suspect favorites.
#1 LADY’S IMAGE Has four wins at fairs, looks best on paper, starts from rail.
#3 ROSE RUN ULALA Led long way in well-bet return, broke stride in follow-up try.
Race Summary Flawless Stone has a dismal record, but he rallied to finish in the money in more than half of his starts this year, the latest from post 8 against a 1-to-5 winner. He could win if the two favorites revert to their habit of breaking stride.

Hoosier Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 ALWAYS A FIGHTER Longshot stab needs some pace flow, moves outside in.
#4 ROYAL REX Rallied for two near misses at Pompano when last seen in February but doesn’t win a lot.
#7 DEL RIO SEELSTER Finished first or second in 7 of 19 starts as an 11-year-old, starts anew.
Race Summary Hoping the two morning-line favorites and perhaps others leave fast off the gate, setting up Always A Fighter for a contending rally at double-digit odds. Royal Rex would benefit, too, but he is 2-59 since 2019 and looms a shorter price. Play a 2-4-7 exacta box.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 Nothingbutflowers Clobbered state-breds in his debut and his two losses were against higher levels; well spotted and can rise to the occasion in his 1st since October.
#4 Release the Heat Was eased in his lasst start of 2019 after an easy maiden win at Arlington; has trained very well at Keeneland and will be a factor at once.
#12 Lady Ally Had a maiden win and a pair of 2nd-place finishes in stakes races last year; got a tough draw but clearly has the talent to figure strongly in this one.
Race Summary Nothingbutflowers has the speed to save position, can benefit from taking the shortest way home and can dig in when challenged.

Indiana Grand - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 Wicked Smart Gave way after pressing the pace in a strong allowance at Churchill and came into that one off an easy maiden win at Fair Grounds; can be in the mix from the start and should be able to show courage at 5F on turf.
#8 Two Sixtyone Won 2 of 3 over this turf course last year and fits well at this level; can either get the lead or sit just off of it.
#9 Hey Negrita Lost a photo at Turfway last time out and has shown a good late move; was 4th in his latest turf attempt and can benefit from the rapid pace.
Race Summary Wicked Smart has been in with some outstanding runners and can make amends for his last one; should be able to adapt to the grass.

Indiana Grand - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 Rampage Won his 1st two over this strip and battled early in three stakes races; can do well in this restricted spot.
#8 Cash Logistics Was an easy winner and was 2nd in a stakes race last year; classy, has worked well and can be a big player.
#1 Maters N Taters Was a stakes winner here last year and ended the season tiring in a route race; can use his speed to save the rail and can be tough to the end.
Race Summary Rampage performed well early last season and can make serious run under Talamo; can seize this state-bred stakes opportunity and should be a factor from the start.
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