Free Premium Service Plays For Wednesday 6/24/20

Jeff Siegel's Day Makers - 6/24/20

June 24, 2020

JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL DAY MAKERS
Jeff Siegel’s Day Makers – his prime plays from around the country - are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. The day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value and should be given strong consideration both as straight wagers and as keys in vertical and horizontal exotics.
*
*
*
GULFSTREAM PARK – SECOND RACE. POST TIME: 12:30 ET
1 – Tiger (7/2)

Looks very much like a win early type based on his recent solo gate drill - (view video) - over the Gulfstream Park main track, a bullet drill accomplished in blinkers under a tight hold while displaying good athleticism and enough fitness to win at first asking. Juvenile son of Dialed In goes for a powerful jockey/trainer combo (29% with a massive flat-bet profit), so we’re expecting this Arindel homebred to a very live item at 7/2 on the morning. If he breaks running from the rail, he could be long gone.

*

GULFSTREAM PARK – FIFTH RACE. POST TIME: 2:05 ET
5 – Baseline Drive (5/2)

Makes her debut for C. Brown (22% with first-timers) following a series of breezing workouts that should have her fit and ready in a race in which the known element doesn’t particularly impress. Been training locally for several months but was left behind while the bulk of the stable shipped north in order to take advantage of this Florida-bred maiden condition. The daughter of Point of Entry out of the good race mare Corner Three (herself a debut winner for these connections) should outclass this field, so we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single at anywhere near her morning line of 5/2.

*

PARX – EIGHTH RACE. POST TIME 4:04 ET
8 – Arkaan (7/2)

Into Mischief colt was a buyback at $320,000 as a weanling and then brought $450,000 the following September when purchased at Keeneland by Shadwell, a significant amount considering the pedigree is empty under the first dam, so he must be one terrific-looking athlete. The work tab provides strong indication that he’s a runner as well and should be plenty fit for a top effort first crack out of the box for a trainer that has superior stats with first-timers (29% with a flat-bet profit). In a field that doesn’t appear to have any champions in it, the M. Pino-trained colt should be hard to beat if he doesn’t make any mistakes. Let’s hope we can get close to his morning line of 7/2 both in the win pool and in our rolling exotics.

*

DELAWARE PARK – SEVENTH RACE. POST TIME: 4:15 ET
10 – Simplicity-FR (5-1)

Makes her U.S debut for C. Clement in a modest first-level allowance affair and brings with her European form that should be good enough to handle this assignment. Purchased overseas last fall at the Arc Sale for the U.S. equivalent of $164,000, the listed stakes-placed French-bred filly has put together a series of solid workouts at Payson Park and most recently at Saratoga to have plenty fit, and as a first-time Lasix user she has a right to be improve on this side of the pond. At 5-1 on the morning line, she’s worth a bit of a gamble in the win pool as a rolling exotic single.

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Canterbury Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#1 Malibu Jack Berndt firster goes for a potent 25% debut barn, drew perfectly, cost 275k as a 2yo in training, shows a slew of encouraging works, and lures main man Eikleberry; looks very live.
#7 Semi Charmed Day Big threat has a solid turf race showing at FG in Feb. and, with just three lifetime starts there's a world of upside here too, so if the pick isn't ready, this one will be there; big chance.
#5 Always Cool ML favorite is the pick's stablemate, so it's interesting to note that Eikleberry is on the rail, and note this one hasn't been out since 6/19 either, so he could need this; tabbing today.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 1, as he's supposed to be live and taking money if he's ready, and if that's the case you can make an aggressive win and place bet, and also be bold and single him to kick off the 10% takeout Pk5, since you don't see too many 275k sons of Malibu Moons in these parts, and the rest of these aren't any great shakes, so, point being, if this dude can run some, the rest are in about 10,000 lakes.

Canterbury Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 I'm an Eight Versatile sort rises slightly in class off the Silva claim after winning for 6.25k at TuP, catches a field loaded with speed, and now starts for a 24% barn; can double up.
#1 Broken Key Well-drawn runner did some good things for Broberg but now goes off the re-claim for Scherer, who had this 5-or-14 local runner rolling back in the day; price chance.
#4 Outrun the Posse Tricky read was just a good 4th sprinting against better and now must try two turns, which is an unknown, though his current form says to take notice; do not ignore.
Race Summary There's a lot to like about the 7, especially the pace of the race, which should suit his style, so play him aggressively to win and place, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5 and late Pk4 as well, since there are a few different ways to go here, but it's the pick who seems the most trustworthy of them all, especially sine he's now in the hands of a potent barn.

Canterbury Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Lila's Lucky Lady Stretch out sprinter had some modest form in a pair of WRD starts against better (that was a very salty meet this year), has two wins here, including a two-turn score, and might be shake loose early; come catch the pick.
#5 Hush Y'all Class dropper hasn't done a lot of running in four starts for Cline but will be bet hard off the OP races two and three-back, but her lack of speed is a real worry, in a race without a lot of early lick; may run out of room late.
#2 Summer Lovin Improving miss woke up a bit when 7th here last time, in what was a very fast race for the level, and now she makes the ever important third start of her form cycle off the long layoff, so it could be go time; hardly impossible.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 1 but with the 5 taking plenty of play maybe that 3-1 ML holds, and that would be a fair price on a gal with seemingly a few big edges on these, so play her to win and place, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5 and late Pk4 as well, since she won't have to improve much off her last to handle a group like this.
__________________

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 Bella Cajun Brings pretty dull recent form with her to this, but she ran well enough in some local turf tries here last year and might be able to wake up at a square price.
#4 Front Money Morgan Just missed with softer last time out, but she'll step up off the Broberg claim and might be able to handle the hike with a good local turf record to her credit.
#6 Yes Gorgeous Has been in with a couple of good groups in those two most recent turf tries at Fair Grounds, but I wouldn't want her at anything shorter than her 2/1 ML offering.
Race Summary Bella Cajun has some decent back turf efforts that make her interesting with this group, and the price figures to be right with the other two listed likely to take cash, too.

Louisiana Downs - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 Make Me Smile Gets some class relief today after trying Fair Grounds stakes company back in February, and he's got a tactical edge on a couple of his main rivals today.
#5 Skycraft Looks like the one of the ones to beat, but he'll once again have to come rolling from downtown in the lane. Thinking the race shape may not flatter him enough to get him home.
#1 Lucky Andy Reliable turf tries outside of stakes company can make him pretty tough here, and there is at least a little upside on the move to the Broberg operation, but maybe not as much as in other situations as this guy came out of a really sharp barn.
Race Summary Make Me Smile should get a really good trip near the top, and he might be able to get the jump on the other main foes turning for home.

Louisiana Downs - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Cypress Point Has crossed the wire first in four straight races, and she showed a bit of a new dimension when finishing from off the splits to score last time out. Dangerous with a new versatile style.
#7 Dr Liz Pace player can get in the mix early on, but this trip might be a bit too long for her to repeat that good effort last time out when winning going short.
#6 Cubs Win Will need to fire fresh for the new connections, but she has some pretty salty company lines over that 2019 campaign, and this is the softest spot she has seen in some time. Not impossible.
Race Summary Cypress Point is in really good form and showed the ability to rate last time out, and that adaptability makes gives him the edge in a spot with some forward players who don't have as much ability to sit and finish if necessary.
__________________

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 BABY YOUR THE BEST – #5 BABY YOU’RE THE BEST – Returns in soft spot, qualifiers indicate readiness.
#4 TUAPEKA JESSIE N – Sh #4 TUAPEKA JESSIE N – Showed little in New Zealand, useful tune-up for U.S. debut.
#2 STOWAWAY HANOVER – Ca #2 STOWAWAY HANOVER – Carried speed to 2 wins in her last 3 starts in Delaware.
Race Summary Baby Your the Best hooked tigress in fall stakes but should get confidence-building win in this spot after a $258k season as a 3-year-old. Play 5-2 and 5-4 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 SOMTIMSTHINGSHAPEN Burned money in local debut, deserves another chance.
#7 STANWOOD Got up for third, gets pace to run at, price attached.
#2 BOX CARS Won at this level three starts back, moves outside in.
Race Summary Somtimsthingshapn pulled the pocket in the third quarter and held safe a long lead off a nine-month layoff at Georgian Downs in Canada, then broke stride in a well-backed Northfield Park debut. Play 1 with 2,7 with ALL trifecta.

Hoosier Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 SKYWAY VENUS Visually impressive move to command, likely repeater from rail.
#2 RIGGINSWIND Far back in fast heat in first start since 18/7-3-4 freshman season.
#8 McKELLA Competitive speed figures but no threat at Scioto, draws outside.
Race Summary Skyway Venus followed through on a backstretch blitz to the lead and won easily as the favorite. No reason to think she won’t repeat with a similar effort. Play 1-2 and 1-8 exactas.
__________________

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #1
Picks Notes
#2 Portal Creek Was claimed for this price by the Matthews barn and ran 3rd in an allowance; hasn't done well in her last two, has been in over her head and fits well in this spot.
#1 Hoptown Honey Was an easy winner at Belterra and steps up in class here; Contreras barn usually tough here.
#4 Sterling Miss Won at level two races back at Oaklawn and was an even 4th last out; capable of running on well late vs. these.
Race Summary Portal Creek was outrun in much tougher races and is back to the claiming price at which she was claimed; can get back to good form.

Indiana Grand - Race #6
Picks Notes
#5 Naughty Alfred Drops in class after being outrun in very tough races at Oaklawn; comes down in class and can wake up vs. these.
#2 Bump Bailey Was a winner vs. better two back at Oaklawn; takes a class drop off a 4th-place finish.
#4 Asongforyou Has a pair of 2nds and a 3rd in his last three, all vs. Louisiana-breds; takes a class drop after running well at higher levels.
Race Summary Naughty Alfred could not keep up in his last but has performances on his form that would make him a big player at this level.

Indiana Grand - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Amazima Won two back at Fair Grounds and gas steadily moved up on grass; didn't like yielding turf in her latest but other races on her form would make her a factor here.
#5 Zuzanna Won the G3 Red Carpet at Del Mar in her last of 2019 and makes her 1st of the year; was an $8,000 claimer a year ago and has improved as she's gone along.
#2 War Cabinet Has taken on stakes company in Canada, New York and Florida and should be able to have a form reversal.
Race Summary Amazima has enough speed to be in the mix from the outset of this one and usually performed well when close to the early pace.
__________________

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 78

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2020 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 COUNCIL RULES 9/5

# 6 DISTINCT APPROVAL 5/1

# 4 WILD DESIRE 8/1

COUNCIL RULES is the strongest bet in this race. She has garnered very strong figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this group. Vaunts reliable speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of animals. A solid 86 avg class rating may give this mare a distinct class edge against this group. DISTINCT APPROVAL - Will likely be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the midpoint of the race. The Equibase speed fig of 70 from her latest affair looks respectable in here.
__________________

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arapahoe Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6400 Class Rating: 54

FOR COLORADO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD NON WINNERS OF TWO RACES LIFETIME. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 MAGIC MOMENT 10/1

# 1 BEHOLD DE SKY 15/1

# 3 HIDDEN FAITH 9/2

I favor MAGIC MOMENT in here and is a very good value bet given the line at 10/1. The conditioner wheels this horse right back to race again. This lot is much softer than the last one she faced. BEHOLD DE SKY - Strong returns have been scored by investors using this jockey and trainer duo recently. Handler has strong win rate (16 percent) at this distance and surface. HIDDEN FAITH - Must be considered given the class of races run recently. Handler has very solid win rate (15 percent) at this distance and surface.
__________________

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Delaware Park - Race #5 - Post: 3:15pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 SHACKLEFORD ROAD (ML=4/1)
#8 UNTANGLED TRUTH (ML=5/1)

SHACKLEFORD ROAD - Camejo has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to beware of the longer priced half. This gelding runs very well off of a layoff. Getting a break of 8 pounds from last race at Fair Grounds. He should make the most of this advantage. Just check out his most recent speed figure, 80. That one fits well in this bunch. UNTANGLED TRUTH - Looking at today's class figure, this racer is encountering an easier field than last time around the track at Parx Racing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TWIST OFF (ML=3/1), #11 TWO L'S MEOW (ML=6/1), #10 LUCKY JUNIOR (ML=8/1),

TWIST OFF - 3/1 is not priced right for any horse in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance contest recently. I think this favorite needs this race under his belt to start getting back into shape. TWO L'S MEOW - Difficult to wager on any steed in a short distance contest if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple months. Ran a long time ago on March 15th. We should see one first. LUCKY JUNIOR - 8/1 is not worth the risk for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance contest lately. Finished fourth in his most recent race with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #5 SHACKLEFORD ROAD to win. Have to have odds of at least 8/5 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
__________________

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

06/24/20, GP, Race 6, 2.37 ET
06/24/20,GP,6,1M [Dirt] 1:33:01 CLAIMING. Purse $19,000 (includes up to $3,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since March 24 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $6,250 (Races Where Entered For $5,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.0000 8 Baseline 4-1 Arroyo A S Taylor Joseph SEW 33.76 1.18/$1
097.7097 5 Pango 7/2 Burgos A Spatz Ronald B. T 36.29 1.16/$1
096.6850 6 Desert General 5/2 Fuentes M Quiroz Gerardo FL 36.29 1.16/$1
095.8235 7 Millionaire Runner 6-1 Rodriguez A A Velazquez Alfredo C 44.44 1.51/$1
095.3359 3 Solar Warming 5-1 Lopez P Dobles Elizabeth L. J 36.29 1.16/$1
093.7207 9 Nacho Papa 10-1 Trejos J Alvarado Juan 44.44 1.51/$1
092.6811 1 Two Step Slew 12-1 Reyes L Crichton Rohan 36.29 1.16/$1
092.2588 2 Manhattan Project 30-1 Lebron V Rose Barry R. 36.29 1.16/$1
092.1404 4 Kahramani 20-1 Torres C A Quiroz Gerardo 36.29 1.16/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.36, ROI 1.08/$1
__________________