Free Service Plays For Friday 6/5/20

Weekly Bankroll Builder: June 5 Stronach 5 Suggested Play

Wednesday, June 3, 2020 by Brian Nadeau

We’re back to battle this week in the Stronach 5, as Laurel Park opened last weekend to secure the final piece of the puzzle. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a wildly successful and well received Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), in the space of about 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. Hopefully I can build on the momentum of last week, where I went 4-for-4 on top in the Gulfstream Park late Pk4 for a modest $87.85 for each 50-cent play, albeit on just a $12 suggested main ticket.

Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter.

Leg 1 Laurel Park R7 (3:51 ET): 3up MSW at 5 � furlongs (turf)

Nothing is easy in the opener, as only two of the 10 entered have made a turf start—and just one apiece, in the same race—and overall the entire field has made 20 dirt starts to just those two on the grass. So, needless to say, spreading might be the way to go here, as this seems the definition of a guessing game. I’ll side with the pedigree, recency, and the upside of #2 ZIP LINE TO HEAVEN (6-1), who is by a solid turf sire in City Zip, is kin to a 6-for-16 runner that is 2-for-7 on turf, chased and tired on debut here on the dirt in mid-March, and goes for Trombetta, who is 22% with second-out maidens and 14% first-turf. I’ll go outside for another City Zip, #11 FRANCATELLI (7-2), who debuts for Lynch, a potent 28% angle, and has a slew of very positive drills on display as well. I’ll also use ML favorite #10 ABUELO PAPS (5-2), who has speed and was a very fast 2nd here, while 9 lengths ahead of ‘Zip Line, though I worry about regression off such a huge run.

Stronach 5 A horses: 2,11,10 (listed in order of preference)

I think you have to use the two who have run on turf—#4 SUPER E (12-1), who was a fast-closing 2nd on the grass and hasn’t run an inch in her five dirt starts, and #6 DESHACKLED (8-1), who was just a neck behind in 3rd and has added some speed to her game recently on dirt—though neither are overly inspiring or have much upside, even with the solid runs under them, so let’s limit them to backup roles.

Stronach 5 B horses: 4,6

Potential B add ins: #5 Cobalt Barron (12-1), #9 Lock (8-1), , #3 The Cairo Kid (8-1), #1 Ribbon Winner (12-1)

Leg 2 Gulfstream Park R9: 3up SOC (10k/8k) at 1 1/16 miles

An average group for the level, without a ton of early speed too, says #7 LOVE NEST (4-1) might be able to handle the class rise after a romp against lesser in extremely fast time in his first start for Creque, and even if he regresses slightly, he could still win this, so he’s the somewhat aggressive single, though this ML might be 8-5 by post. It’s also worth noting the top-5 finishers of the 5/9 race here at the level (going a one-turn mile) are all back, and were only separated by 2 lengths that day, so separating them here won’t be easy, and seems like a crapshoot, which is another reason for taking the fresh new face.

Stronach 5 A horses: 7

You could literally use the rest of them underneath (or on top), which doesn’t do us a lot of good, so I’m going it alone with the “now” horse who looks to have a major tactical advantage over a lot of his main rivals. I’m also spreading a bit deeper in the other four legs, so having a single will keep the cost to a reasonable level as well.

Stronach 5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add ins: NONE

Leg 3 Laurel Park R8: 3up N1X at 1 1/16 miles (turf)

Another toughie in Maryland, especially since the best horse, #4 JO’S BOLD CAT (9-2), is off a November layoff for a Rubley barn that is 0-for-10 off this long of a break, though this is a veteran who is 2-for-6 over the course, and 1-for-26 elsewhere, so you have to use him on the top line. However, as for the actual pick, I’ll try for an upset with #3 CAPTAIN THUNDER (10-1), who returns to the turf, has three solid local grass races, and starts for Abbott, who knows how to spot his stock. If you overlook the trip to NY, then #5 TEN EYCK (6-1) has done nothing wrong in three local turf starts for Dilodovico, and his tactical style says he’s getting a good trip from just off the pace, plus those two May works say he’s ready to roll as well.

Take note that if #14 J Beresford Tipton (3-1) draws in, he’s a must-use A, terrible post and all.

Stronach 5 A horses: 3,4,5

The stats this year (just 0-for-2) don’t show it, but Ricky Hendricks knows how to condition a new turf acquisition, and he gets to work with #6 IT’S FATE (10-1), who has some solid grass form and could move up for a crafty barn, so give this one more than a cursory glance. If you just look at #12 OUTOFTHEPARK’S (8-1) two turf routes he fits nicely here, and the price will be right too, not to mentioned there are six works without a gap showing, which helps alleviate the wide draw, and the fact Jenkins is 0-for-7 off a 180+-day layoff.

Stronach 5 B horses: 6,12

Potential B add ins: #8 Speed Game (5-1), #9 Seville Barber (10-1), #10 Make a Stand (12-1)

Leg 4 Golden Gate Fields R3: 3upfm 5k MCL at 5 furlongs

I think you can expect a big move forward from #3 FLYING HOME (6-1), who chased and then tired on debut against tons better, now adds blinkers, and has a world of upside in a race where most of the others don’t. clearly #5 KAYLA’S COWGIRL (1-1) will be tough off the SA drop and return to the local strip, especially since she’s never been in this light on the class scale, but she’s also 0-for-6 and has never really come close to winning, and will be vastly overbet too, so the old “backwheel” comes to mind and therefore we’ll let the budget players single her.

Stronach 5 A horses: 3,5

One of these days #2 CHARMING LASS (9-2) will get there, as dad likes to say, water will eventually find it’s level, but she also needs regression from the top pair to win, so let’s use her defensively, especially since she couldn’t even beat lifetime maiden #7 Bank of Many (4-1) last time.

Stronach 5 B horses: 2

Potential B add ins: NONE

Leg 5 Santa Anita R4: 3upfm 35k N3L at 1-mile (turf)

You could do worse than singling #6 ARCTIC ROLL (2-1) at the end, especially since she actually won at the level three-back and now drops after facing much better in her last two, and goes second-off the layoff as well. However, I’m also using #5 KITTYHAWK LASS (7-2), another dropper who also cuts back, and should get a truer pace to aid her late run going what can often be a snappy two-turn mile.

Stronach 5 A horses: 6,5

There seems to be some speed signed on here, but the speed of the speed is definitely #3 UNTOUCHED ELEGANCE (6-1) who stretches out and has run well at the distance before, so if she clears, settles, and slows it down, she could get brave and forget to stop.

Stronach 5 B horses: 3

Potential B add ins: #1 Shanghai Truffles (4-1)

The suggested tickets:

Main Ticket: 2,11,10 with 7 with 3,4,5 with 3,5 with 6,5 = $36
Leg 1 Backup: 4,6 with 7 with 3,4,5 with 3,5 with 6,5 = $24
Leg 3 Backup: 2,11,10 with 7 with 6,12 with 3,5 with 6,5 = $24
Leg 4 Backup: 2,11,10 with 7 with 3,4,5 with 2 with 6,5 = $18
Leg 5 Backup: 2,11,10 with 7 with 3,4,5 with 3,5 with 3 = $18
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Al Cimaglia: Scioto Downs Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 5, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Scioto Downs has a 14-race card ready to go this evening. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 10 and will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

6-Pure Chance (8/5)-Got the top from the 10-hole and faded to finish 2nd in season debut. Should be tighter, gets post relief and Merriman can provide an aggressive steer.
9-Wittyville (9/2)-Burke trainee has won >$190k at ScD and comes off an easy score versus a softer field. Needs to mind manners and Page must work a good trip, but could be in the mix with an alert start.

Race 11

1-Under The Hood (5/2)-Widger takes the lines and maybe that will help this mare wake-up. Figures to be in the hunt, but recent form has been dull. Using and hoping won't be over bet in a race without a standout.
2-Dancing Lisa (4-1)-Got on the engine and was just edged in a sharp qualifier. Is only 1-15 at ScD and will probably be bet. But has the speed to beat this crew.
3-Elm Grove Joanette (8-1)-Took the short way around in qualifier and raced the back half in 56.2. Should be a player despite being only 1-39 at ScD and may offer a solid price.
4-U'll Learn (12-1)-If Sutton finds a live cover flow this mare could win at a big price. Has shown some improvement since the lay-off and draws well.

Race 12

4-Bellatricks (4-1)-Camera shy 7-year-old did race a big mile against better last week. Miller will probably blast out to control things and may not look back.
8-Queen Of The Pride (4-1)-This classy mare is the one to beat and probably is a picture taker if dialed on high. Winner of 4 in 8 starts at ScD and now drops into a soft spot to grab first win of 2020.

Race 13

2-I Know My Chips (7/2)-Should enjoy the company and has won 12 of 27 starts at ScD. Qualified well and was Smith's choice over the program chalk #8.
4-Mugshot Man (8-1)-Qualifier was fine and comes off the bench to face a similar crew as in last win. This is a lightly raced 7-year-old and last picture was taken back on 8/22. Can compete here if ready and should be a square price.
10-Voyage To Paris (5-1)-Drops in 3rd start off the lay-off and post helps the price. Sutton may look to follow #2 at the start and get a good early seat. Best to respect winner of $186k in 2019.

0.50 Pick 4

6,9/1,2,3,4/4,8/2,4,10
Total Bet=$24
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 Vincero Stiff class dropper didn't fire against much better in the slop at GP last time and was in way too tough and too far off the Breen claim there two-back, but he's back with friends here, for a sharp barn, and lures Jose Ortiz, which says it's go-time today; look out.
#11 Hardcore Folklore Closer is another who has been facing better, as those 50k starters in two starts off the Gullo claim were much saltier than these, so he too should like the drop, and note the big forward move showed in those two, so this 10k group might be all it takes; huge chance.
#6 Earned Success ML favorite is a dicey proposition, as Rice claimed him for 40k from Brown two-back, then got a decent enough 4th for that price, yet now dangles him for 10k, so sure, he can win, but taking an underlaid price with obvious warning signs is no bargain; tread lightly.
Race Summary That 6-1 ML on the pick seems very fair, and even if it dips a bit then 9-2 or so would be worth a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, as he looks spotted to score for a very sharp barn, in a race there for the taking, with a potentially vulnerable favorite signed on as well.

Belmont Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#2 Mount Travers Rice charge hasn't been out since July when he was stakes routing with some decent results, so sure, this could be a prep and he may need this, but there's a favorite who is impossible to trust, and several others with a ton of speed, so he may get set up; mows them down in the lane.
#7 Unstagrand Aforementioned favorite was a major Derby contender last year then went awry and got injured, and while new trainer Brown may move him way up, he's disappointed in three return stats, could get caught in the hot pace, and will be a big underlay too; making him prove it on top.
#4 Amundson Heavy hitter is the main danger to the chalk on paper, as his NYB stakes win last time was heady stuff, but he did it on the lead, and taking that approach here won't be easy, and could leave him leg weary late, and the 15-1 last time is long gone today; know him early, not sure about late.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that will really flatter the chances of the 2, while potentially hurting those of the 7 and especially the 4, so play him in all the slots, and to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since he's going to be a price, and may have developed into a bigger, stronger version of the solid 3yo he was, which would put him right there with a group like this.

Belmont Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#8 Voting Agreement Sharp Spa debut winner for Brown and Klaravich hasn't been seen since that score in August, but she sure tipped her hand at what she can do that day, and the long layoff for this barn is almost a positive, and if with plenty of pace signed on, and the fact she's likely filled out since that 2yo run, the rest of these are going to be in deep water; could be a star.
#1 Catch a Thrill Casse miss stalked and rallied to be a good 2nd in an encouraging return at GP last time, which gives her an important recency edge on the pick, and she's another who will like a race that is filled with early speed, so if she builds off that comeback she's certainly a major player, though the rail in a 12-horse field won't make things easy; looms the main danger.
#6 Lost Ticket Lightly raced miss for Mott cuts back after a quartet of routes to start her career, and a few of them were solid, plus she had a bit of trouble last time as well, so while a win might be a bit out of reach, as she may have too much to do in the lane, she figures to rally on late for a share, at what should be a very square price too; eligible to spice up your exotics.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the pick but that 5-2 ML seems like a lot of value on a filly who could be poised for a serious campaign this year for a four-time Eclipse award winning trainer, who already popped with a long layoff runner at the meet, so make an aggressive win and place bet at 9-5 or higher, though you can get some built-in value by singing her in the late Pk5/Pk4, as she looks primed to come back running, off what was a very exciting debut.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #3
Picks Notes
#6 Commcat Had been knocking on the door before breaking through last time out, and something like that try doesn't leave her out of the picture with these at a square price.
#1 Navy Sword Drops in class after showing little with stakes company back in November, but the maiden breaker would be good enough to handle this relatively soft group if she's able to get back to it off the bench.
#2 C V's Campfire Needs much better than she offered in that first try with winners, but she's probably a bit tighter this time around and can challenge with onf of her better runs.
Race Summary Commcat broke through with a nice score to break her maiden last out, and although I don't usually like maiden winners stepping up for the first time, this is a soft spot once you get back Navy Sword's potential.

Charles Town - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Joopster Reliable type has held his form through a few different barns, so there's a real chance he'll hold that form he showed for the new team last time out.
#6 Zafir Rolled in the local debut, and though the waters get deeper this time around, something like that effort would keep him right in the mix with these.
#5 Correjon Owns the best running lines on paper, but he didn't show up in his only local try at 5/2, so I wouldn't want to bite on too short a number here with a long layoff and a footing concern to worry about.
Race Summary Joopster figures to show up and run his race again tonight, and that might be good enough to handle Zafir and Correjon. The former steps up off a sharp win while the latter, the ML favorite, has a long layoff to overcome on a surface he failed to perform over in his only try.

Charles Town - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 Twirling Owen Hoping for a repeat performance from the stakes win a couple weeks ago when she showed sharp pace, opened a big lead and held. No reason she can't win right back.
#5 Unaquoi Back on a week's rest after chasing and fading on the Churchill lawn, and though her best work has come on the turf, she does own a decent local record here from her past.
#2 Remy's Rocket Went to the bench after that dreadful try in late December, but she appears to be heading into this run in good order and fits if she's able to get back to something like her best.
Race Summary Twirling Owen can be tough right back if she can hold the form that saw her post a speedy score here a couple weeks ago. Unaquoi is the wildcard with good turf form and some past success over the local oval.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Meadowlands - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 CRYSTAL FASHION Too good to pass up at 8-1, proven time and time again at the Big M.
#1 MANCHEGO Champion mare takes on the boys, takes some catching in 5yo debut from the rail.
#7 SOUTHWIND CHROME Won qualifiers on front end from the outside, has passing gear.
Race Summary Racing at the Meadowlands returns with a bang as last year’s Breeders Crown Mare Trot champion Manchego makes her seasonal debut against two millionaires and eight rivals who have combined for 176 wins. The pick here is Crystal Fashion, whose Big M resume includes a stakes record in the Cashman Memorial and a win over Atlanta in the Hambletonian Maturity. He’s a good price and the layoff shouldn’t be a major concern since trainer Jim Campbell once said “He takes really good care of himself.”

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 SOMBRE Fired for new barn before shutdown, can make good use of his speed in here.
#3 KING OF MAGIC Ran best race when freshened in January, has poor record however.
#6 HP BRUXELLES Mare gets driver upgrade and first-time Lasix in march toward $100k.
Race Summary Sombre carried his speed to win on the class hike off the claim and holds a tactical advantage on his main rivals tonight. Looking for some longshots to accompany him, so play a 2-3-6 exacta box.

Meadowlands - Race #10
Picks Notes
#7 SUDDEN PASSING Top connections, good value, experience edge at 1M track.
#1 SUDDEN CHANGE Has speed and the rail and gets class relief for sharp barn.
#2 OCEANIA Won seven races and more than $88,000 last year.
Race Summary Sudden Passing’s experience at a one-mile oval, including two wins at the Meadowlands earlier in the year, stand out in a field that spent the first half of 2020 almost exclusively on half-mile tracks. Play 7-1 and 7-2 exactas.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#2 Bahama Kitten Was 2nd in two of her last three and has been with quality runners; needs a lot of luck when it comes to pace and traffic but is capable of making a huge run against these. Will be a healthy price.
#8 Beach Dreaming Is in good form and has closed well for 3rd in her last two; won here in January and is capable of being in the mix from the outset.
#9 Spicy Nelly Lost a photo vs. similar two back and then faltered in a race that came off the turf; can compete well on the grass here.
Race Summary Bahama Kitten has a good late kick but also has run up close in races with a soft pace; her best could be good enough today.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#4 American Phenom American Pharoah colt broke last in his debut and ran on well for 4th; was an original $340K yearling purchase and the Crichton stable took him for $50,000 in his 1st one. H as trained well and is the most eligible to improve here.
#8 Troubled Affair Has a list of good works and looks ready for his 1st one; Munnings colt would not be a major surprise.
#11 Mukulwitz Moves over to the turf and could be along for a minor slice; has had lot of practice and he can improve on his only previous grass effort.
Race Summary American Phenom didn't break well in his 1st one and likely will be in the mix from the outset today.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#5 One Hot Drama Extremely quick and can get to the lead vs. these; Zayas can nurse her speed and has something left for this claiming price.
#6 Dancing Destroyer Was 2nd at this level two back and was claimed; can be in close attendance and looks like a threat.
#2 Bibiana Was a clear maiden winner last out, has enough speed to stay close and can be a late player.
Race Summary One Hot Drama should be able to set the pace and can be super tough if she can go at a moderate rate; fits well with these.
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